Perception versus Reality

Shock horror in the life insurance sector this week with the suggestion that trailing commissions should be limited or banned, and that the overall level of sales payments to life agents should be curtailed.

Given the recent debate over the potential conflicts caused by commissions for sales of financial services and products, and the overall debate over FoFA, it is hardly surprising that the spotlight has finally fallen on life insurance. The problem is real, and the concept of providing a product or solution that is in the best interest of the client, as opposed to the advisor/sales person, equally real.

However, in the vast majority of cases advisors put their clients' best interests first, in spite of the high profile failures, which have dominated headlines over the past couple of years at the big end of town at CBA and NAB. These of course have tarnished the whole industry, and headlines in the media have only helped - along with some opportunistic comment from politicians of one persuasion or another - to create the perception that there's no such thing as independent when it comes to the provision of financial advice.

It doesn't take much for the perception of an industry to become the reality in many people's minds, and once that occurs only drastic action, or regulation, and the passage of time will change it.  

Elsewhere this week there are ongoing signs that although the search for yield in the current low to negative real interest rate environment will inevitably continue, the resulting stretched valuations in asset prices - equities and real estate in particular - are a cause for concern. The chairman of ANZ, David Gonski, was reported to be suggesting that the RBA should cease further rate cuts, while others have suggested that for the Australian banking sector things are about as good as they get.

Bank margins are being squeezed by low rates, and while asset growth outside the housing sector is low or limited, housing prices are overly stretched, and are being pressured further by population growth and the emphasis on lending for investment as opposed to owner occupiers. Investment in the mining and resources sector has fallen sharply (probably an understatement!) as a result of falling commodity prices, which in itself is not helping the government's budget woes.

Australia is not alone in facing structural problems, with the recent announcement that inflation in the UK is officially negative for the first time in history. We are certainly living in uncertain times, and the effects of 2008, and the reaction of central banks and QE since then, suggest that we are in uncharted waters.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Avenir Value Fund rose 7.8% during February to bring the Fund's Annual Return since inception to 17.00% per annum.

The Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund performance in February was flat (0.05%) following a 3-month gain of 8.85%.

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

Connect with me on LinkedIn, Twitter

What difference a word makes!

Everyone understands that markets are waiting for the inevitable rate rise in the US, but it was not until this week that it became apparent that those same markets are hanging out not just for the latest economic statistics, nor for the latest pronouncements from the US Federal Reserve. What became apparent this week was that markets are reacting (or should that be overreacting?) to the slightest nuance in Fed speak.

This time it was the Fed's removal of the word patient from their statement, although it was helped along by a lowering of their economic and inflation outlook. This saw market expectations for rate rise pushed out by two or three months. As a result the US dollar's recent rise came to an abrupt halt, and equity markets soared.

So the question is that if markets can react so dramatically on the basis of the removal of one word, and the delay of the inevitable rate rise of somewhere between one and three months, how are they going to react when that inevitability turns to fact?

As much as Janet Yellen and her US Central Bank colleagues would like to smooth and calm markets by managing their expectations, all the indications are that the herd is likely to break from a trot into a stampede when she finally makes her move.

Locally the ASX200 has risen over 12% year to date, approximately double its rise in 2014 as a whole, as investors' expectations for a rate cut remain on track, in spite of the slump in commodity prices, and the longer term outlook for the federal budget deficit which only Tony Abbott himself now seems to see as a problem.

We remain concerned about the government's seeming inability to communicate effectively at nearly any level, be it one on one in the Senate, or more broadly with the electorate via the media where their credibility seems limited at best, and a boring budget in a couple of months won't help. Consumer and business confidence is significantly at risk as a result.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

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IMR moves a little closer, and what's Joe Hockey up to?

This week we're pleased to see that a little more than five years after the Johnson Report's recommendation, Treasury has announced Element 3 of the Investment Management Regime, or at least draft legislation relating thereto, and is inviting comment on the design of the amendments, the purpose of which is to enable offshore investors to invest via local fund managers without being penalised as a result of Australia's peculiar, if not unique, managed fund tax structures.

For those wanting more information, please click here.

Regular recipients of Hedge Clippings would be well aware that our weekly commentary can stray from the topic of managed funds, occasionally commenting on the economy, markets, regulations, and even politics, or at least the impact of our various political masters on such matters, although we do try to keep on track (up to a point).

There are reasons for this, including the obvious one that such matters, particularly regulations, do impact on markets and therefore managed funds. There are others of course, including the fact that our Friday lunchtimes are spent writing and editing Hedge Clippings, and thus we might possibly still be appropriately focussed, while many recipients of Clippings will hopefully be significantly more realxed, or well on thier way to getting there.

So for those less interested in the IMR mentioned above, has anyone else been concerned that our erstwhile treasurer, Joseph Benedict Hockey, seems to have spent the best part of the past week in court defending his reputation, rather than attending to the business of running the country's finances?

Maybe it's because his first budget, introduced a full ten months ago, was so inept, imbalanced, and, even according to his own colleagues, poorly sold (sorry, "communicated" to the electorate) that it has yet to be passed in full, while many of the more contentious issues have been dropped that he's trying to divert attention away from his performance as Treasurer.

Maybe, in spite of the fact that as a long term (although maybe not that much longer) politician he really is so thin skinned that he was genuinely offended by the suggestion that allowing some lucky constituents to pay $22,000 for the benefit of having privileged access to him questioned his integrity.

Maybe it's because payments received as a result of successful defamation actions are, we understand, not taxable.

Whichever or whatever it is, we're not sure the electorate is getting its money's worth.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

KIS Asia Long Short Fund returned -0.35% in January bringing the Fund's annual return since inception to 14.83%.

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

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The Intergenerational Report seems to state the bleedin' obvious!

One of the clearest (and concerning) presentations we have seen in the past few months on the problems that Australia is facing was given by John Daley, the CEO of the Grattan Institute. His views were reaffirmed in Wednesday's Editorial & Opinion section of the Australian Financial Review.

Put simply Daley's argument is that based on current facts and future assumptions the government's income and expenditure outlook is broken. The current budget deficit of around $40 billion a year is not going to be fixed in short-term, and unless it is addressed, it's going to get worse.

We have an ageing population, which apart from the social, health and demographic issues is going to result in increasing pressures on the budget, with a larger proportion of the population relying on welfare, and a smaller proportion (62% by 2050) of the population in the workforce and therefore contributing tax revenue.

As Janine Perrett from the Switzer Report noted today governments need the vision and political will (both of which in her opinion are totally lacking today) which enabled superannuation and the GST to be introduced which were both big picture innovations that have had significant ramifications since.

Whether either side of politics currently has either vision or political will is debatable. However the current system where everyone wants more from the government, either in the form of handouts or taxation concessions, while paying less tax, is simply not going to solve the problem.

Sooner or later the current sacred cows such as concessional superannuation taxation in retirement phase, negative gearing, and welfare for the wealthy are going to have to be addressed. Sooner or later one side of politics or the other, preferably both, are going to have to bite the bullet and increase and broaden the GST.

In our mind the sooner the better because in the meantime we are just digging the hole, out of which we will all have to climb, deeper.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

In January, Alpha Beta Asian Fund returned -1.30%, bringing the Fund's return since inception to 20.90%.

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

Connect with me on LinkedIn Twitter

The X factor and unconventional wisdom.

Conventional wisdom within the Australian financial services sector says that local fund managers are at a significant disadvantage when it comes to raising significant amounts of FUM, whether from local or overseas investors. By conventional, we would include David Murray and his FSI panel, most local fund managers, and the majority of offshore institutional investors.

The main benefit Australian managers have comes from managing local Australian assets on behalf of local Australian investors. When it comes to managing offshore assets, and equities in particular, for offshore investors that is considered more than an uphill battle for an Australian born, bred and domiciled fund manager.

What then is the difference or the X factor with Magellan Financial Group, who released their interim results this week? Ignoring their financial results, and focusing on the extent and source of their Funds under Management would indicate that either conventional wisdom is simply wrong, or there's more to it than that.

In the six months to December 2014 Magellan increased their FUM from $23.5 to $31.6 billion, with the offshore component increasing from $13.9 to $19.6 billion. No doubt the fall in the A$ has assisted in raising the overall FUM figure, but it doesn't factor in the fact that in spite of being a relatively young manager (having started out from a standing start in July 2007) 62% of that FUM comes from overseas institutional investors.

I'm sure there's not one single reason, with strategy, structure, market capacity, management, marketing and distribution all playing their part. However performance since inception has been good without being stellar. In fact between launching in July 2007 and July 2011 the Magellan Global Fund had gained a cumulative 1.01% inclusive of distributions net of fees. To be sure the fund's performance then accelerated though to December 2013 to be up a cumulative 96% courtesy of a 48% return that year, before going sideways for the following eight months and then lifting in the final quarter of 2014.

Whatever the X factor is, full marks to the Magellan team. They've proven that local Australian fund managers can compete on the global as well as the local stage in spite of being geographically challenged.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Bennelong Alpha 200 Fund returned 2.18% during January 2015, bringing the fund's annual return to 4.13% since inception.

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

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Difference of opinion is what makes a market.

AFM's "Looking Forward Looking Back" seminar, held yesterday in conjunction with Deloitte provided attendees with a reasonably universal view of the economic world and the challenges facing it, but some significantly different opinions on the level of risk faced, and the eventual outcomes.

The introductory presentation addressed, and we hope answered, the question of whether hedge funds are risky or risk averse? The facts plainly speak for themselves, with the sector providing 1 to 2% higher returns than the ASX 200 accumulation index over each of one, five and 10 years, but on average with half the market's volatility.

Following this Michael Thomas from Deloitte Access Economics provided a presentation on the Australian economic outlook, following which he joined a panel of fund managers including Simon Shields from Monash Investors, John Corr from Aurora Funds Management, Monic Kotecha from InSync Funds Management, and finally George Colman from Optimal Australia.

As indicated above there was generally a standard view of where the world stands, and the challenges (particularly low growth, low to negative interest rates, high levels of central bank intervention, and the potential for deflation) which it faces. That's about where the consensus ended, with significantly different views on what might happen when, or if the music ever stops.

The most bearish of the participants was George Colman from Optimal Australia, who interestingly noted that they launched their fund in 2008 on the same day that Lehman Bros filed for bankruptcy. In spite of that the fund has managed to return an annualised 9.23% over the following 6 1/2 years, during which time their largest drawdown has been just 2.75% (against the market's largest drawdown of 33%) George was of the opinion that 2014 was one of the most difficult years he had experienced in his 25 years in the financial markets.

George was unequivocally of the view that the distortion to financial markets caused by the unprecedented levels of central bank intervention, and the stretched valuations that have occurred as a result, could only end in tears once interest rates started to rise.

Sharing George's negative view was John Corr from Aurora Funds Ltd, who also added his concern regarding the ongoing political instability in Australia. While political instability in Australia takes a different form to that experienced in many other parts of the world, his concern was the level of influence exerted by minor parties, which along with a fickle electorate was preventing electing governments from making the hard decisions necessary to resolve structural problems within the economy.

John also felt the market was expensive, and although he did not feel that a large pullback was imminent he did note concern around the stretched pricing of the financial sector. For the record Aurora's Fortitude Absolute Return Fund has returned 7.38% over 10 years, all of which have provided positive returns with a largest drawdown of 2.09% and volatility of just 2.71% against the market's volatility of 13.88%.

Monik Kotecha from InSync's Global Titans Fund (annualised returns of 11.22% over five years with the largest drawdown of just 4.39%) had a somewhat different view of the outcome, possibly as a result of his investment universe being global mega stocks. His feedback was that company management continues to report business conditions as being very difficult, particularly in Europe where sales growth is flat, although the weaker Euro is expected to improve export opportunities.

Of interest was the fact that InSync normally runs put protection at about 25% of the portfolio, whilst at the current time it is around 80% even though much of this is largely due to the fact that put protection is currently very cheap - at odds with the general concerns about risk.

Finally the most positive of the four was Simon Shields from Monash Investors, whose Absolute Investment Fund has returned 16.6% per annum (over a shorter time frame than the other panellists albeit with a slightly higher volatility). Whilst noting that the market overall is quite expensive Simon still felt it offered opportunities, feeling that any pullback was not imminent, and in any event was unlikely to be as severe as predicted by his more bearish panel members.

One reason provided by Simon for his view was the rise of the global middle-class as a major economic factor, and his feeling that this demographic change had some time to run, whilst he was also bullish on technology and its impacts on the economy.

Whether one's prediction of the outcome sits at the bearish end as outlined by George Colman and John Corr, or the more opportunistic approach from Simon and Monik will depend on one's view of the world, but what did not seem to be in question was that we are living in in unprecedented economic times - with risks that are high, and the outcome uncertain.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Morphic Global Opportunities Fund rose 4.42% in January 2015 (Global Equity Index 3.27%) with a volatility of 8.68%.

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

Connect with me on LinkedIn Twitter

Expect the unexpected!

A few years ago there was a rush of newspeak around the known knowns, and known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. It was all a little confusing (especially when written like that) and mainly emanated out of US military and political circles, particularly Donald Rumsfield. Thankfully, here at least, the fad passed. But it did make us think about the unexpected, and the old market adage to expect the unexpected.

To be fair the market has seen a fair number of expectations come to pass over the past 12 months, including the well telegraphed end of QE in the US, the inevitability of the ECB's own stimulus program, and although not universally expected, a slowdown in the growth of China's economy.

However there have also been some unexpected and significant market moves over the past six months: Few, if any expected the Swiss to remove the cap on their currency which resulted in the Swiss Franc jumping 15% overnight. Few expected the price of oil to halve. Equally three months ago few would have expected a rally in the Australian equity market of 10% in just eleven days this early in the new year.

But then few were expecting a rate cut of 0.25% in February either, whilst now the expectation is for a cut of a further 0.25% in the next few months. To put the market's rise of 10% in context, the ASX200 (excluding dividends) only rose 1.4% in the whole of 2014, so there'll finally be some happy investors around, particularly those focusing on stocks within the yield theme such as Telstra and the banks.

The question for local investors is whether this can continue, or is this as good as it gets? A further rate cut, and a weaker A$ will no doubt fuel the rally further, but one wonders how long OPEC will continue to pump oil at these levels, and therefore subsidise the price of petrol. However, the opposite side of the cause of the rate cut is falling consumer and business confidence, neither of which will have been improved by the current state of play within the government in Canberra.

We have repeatedly warned that sooner or later interest rates WILL increase, certainly from their near zero or negative levels overseas, whereupon there's likely to be outflows from equity markets. When, or by how much is not known, but when it does occur we suspect it will be a case of expect the expected.

Which I suppose brings us back to hedge funds, and their core purpose of avoiding risk and the danger of the unexpected. Taken over a range of periods equity hedge funds have consistently outperformed the ASX200 Accumulation index.  Over 2014 they returned 7.6% (vs ASX200 5.61%); annualised over five years 8.84% (vs ASX200 6.75%) and over ten years, 9.71% (vs ASX200 7.55%). Over each time frame that's an excess return of over 2%, which over ten years would leave investors 22% better off. Most importantly this has been achieved with around half the volatility and drawdown of the equity market.

There's no doubt a clever line in there somewhere about hedge funds and the unknown unknowns, but as we noted at the beginning thankfully that fad has passed.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

KIS Asia Long Short Fund returned 0.26% during December and 4.76% for 2014 with a volatility of 2.72%.

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

Connect with me on LinkedIn Twitter

Last week "Hedge Clippings" noted that while negative, or historically low interest rates around the world caused by QE in the US and European and Japanese Central Bank Intervention (CBI) is working up to a point, it is still a great experiment that we had to have to avoid a complete meltdown during and post the GFC. As such, the end outcome has yet to be determined.

China's economy is still a question mark, although is likely to be a major beneficiary of the lower energy prices - if and while they last. The crackdown on the margin lending which has helped to push the Shanghai market so strongly over the past six months will however be interesting.

Europe won't respond to CBI the way the US did to QE simply because there are 28 different economies and nationalities at work. It is not universal. The world is facing deflation and 0% or negative interest rates, and as we indicated in last week's Hedge Clippings there's likely to be tears before bedtime.

The question is when? Investors will continue to chase whatever yield they can find, and bank deposits aren't where they will find attractive returns for a while. Hence equity markets, and particularly the six great dividend payers in Australia (the big four banks, Wesfarmers and Telstra) although expensive on most counts, will remain well supported, as evidenced by the Commonwealth Bank hitting $90 today.

So there's a significant anomaly: In spite of the risk of concentration in just a handful of stocks, and in spite of the risk of buying assets which on any normal valuation are significantly overpriced, investors are still happily allocating to equities and if the RBA cuts rates again next Tuesday as many expect, are likely to continue to do so. Meanwhile more and more commentators and fund managers are warning of the risks.

They are doing so on the assumption there won't be any shocks to the system, be it an economic or political black swan event, which of course can't be ruled out. For example, oil prices halving in 6 months out of the blue is likely to cause some serious pain in some sectors of the US (shale oil) market and in Russia, even if we can now afford to fill the car's petrol tank.

So what to do? A sensible investor (if they believe the nervous nellies) might buy some insurance in the form of long dated out of the money index put options. Or just continue to dance until the music stops, and hope for the best.

But hope is generally not considered to be the best strategy.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Paragon Fund returned -0.50% (ASX 200 Accum 2.06%) during December with annual returns at 16.09% (Index 5.61%) with a volatility 15.16% (Index 10.95%).

The Pengana Absolute Return Asia Pacific Fund returned 0.74% in December and 6.20% for the year with a volatility of 2.79% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.29.

Auscap Long Short Australian Equities Fund recorded a return of 0.44% in December with the annual return 23.17% and a volatility of 7.46%.

The Avenir Capital Value Fund returned -4.42% during December 2014 with annual performance of 15.38% and volatility of 11.11% since inception.

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

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Over the last week both Switzerland and Denmark announced further cuts to their already negative interest rates.

US$7.3 trillion of government debt in the Eurozone, Switzerland and Japan has a negative yield. It used to be that when you lent someone money, even the government, you received interest. Apparently not any more.

For those investors that are still lending, or considering lending to governments, globally 52% of all government bonds currently yield less than 1%. Australian 10 year bonds are yielding significantly more than that at 2.6%, but even this is at an all-time low.

Not so long ago, a primary source of concern was inflation. Now it's deflation.

According to Merrill's 83% of global equity market capitalisation is underpinned (or should that be propped up?) by zero interest rate policies. Given that many pension funds around the world are limited, or not permitted to invest in equity markets due to the risk, they are between a rock and a hard place when it comes to asset allocation.

Of course this can't last forever. Eventually interest rates will rise. Given that bond markets are many, many times larger than equity markets, any shift from equities (and their stretched valuations) to bonds to chase yields is likely to be painful.

The issue is when?  At present while the music is playing investors will have to keep dancing, but the issue is how long can the current environment last?

Probably sometime considerable time yet, but we do believe that there will, as they say, be tears before bedtime when it changes.

It will take people far, far smarter than yours truly to answer that, and for one fund manager's view on this and other topics watch this interview we recorded earlier this week with Morphic Asset Management's Jack Lowenstein.

Meanwhile if you haven't yet registered for our AFM/Deloitte lunchtime presentation "Looking Forward, Looking Back" to be held in Sydney on Thursday 12 February, please click here.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Monash Absolute Investment Fund returned 0.80% during December bringing the 2014 return to 5.40% (ASX 200 Accum 5.61%) and a volatility of 8.10% (Index 10.95%).

The Aurora Fortitude Absolute Return Fund returned -0.74% during December with a volatility of 1.23%.

Optimal Australia Absolute Trust returned -1.53% in December, resulting in a 2014 annual return of 3.24% and volatility of 2.80%.

The Laminar Credit Opportunities Fund returned 0.64% over the month of December and has annual volatility of 0.63%.

Pengana Australian Equities Market Neutral Fund returned -3.90% during December.

The Totus Alpha Fund -2.30% during December bringing year to date return for 2014 to 12.85% with volatility of 9.14%.

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

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Here we go again...

Welcome back to Friday afternoons, and Hedge Clippings. Even if you're still on holiday, languishing on the beach, or quietly sipping a glass of something cool and refreshing, you'll be pleased to know that some of us at least are back at the grindstone for another year.

So to kick off the year ahead let's look at the performance of funds and strategies over the past 12 months, and also preview some of the major themes or issues facing markets in 2015.

We need to be a bit careful on some of the numbers below but with just over 59% of December's results in to date, there's a pretty strong trend:

At the individual fund level 12 month performances ranged from -22% through to +54%. The ASX200 itself only rose 1.1% for the 12 months to 31 December, so dividends etc. added 4.5% to investors' returns, and that probably explained the strength of the yield chasing that was going on with interest rates so low - particularly in the banks and stocks such as Telstra.

Overall from an anecdotal perspective most managers found 2015 pretty tough - in fact a number have confided that they found it one of the hardest years they'd experienced. In particular low equity market volatility, although with some notable spikes at specific times, along with the punishment handed out to companies that disappointed analysts and investors, made it a difficult year.

Certainly the best performing funds were either the stock pickers (provided they got their picks right) or those funds investing overseas which had the double benefit of stronger offshore markets, and the A$ as it finally declined in the second half of the year.

Strategy wise there was the usual dispersion of returns, but not as extreme as in previous years, with only Currency (-1.04%) and Commodities/CTA's (-4.29%) posting negative numbers:

Of course the big themes for the year were the slump in commodity prices, record low interest rates, and towards the end of the year the oil price heading towards $50 per barrel.

Overseas the US saw off QE and seems to be prepared for rates to rise, Europe remains a dog's breakfast, and China remains a question mark.

So the big themes - or questions - for 2015?

1. Will the US equity markets actually handle a rate rise without too much of a rush for the exit sign? Valuations are pretty rich, so volatility could rise if the transition isn't smooth.
2. How will the oil price affect global economies - including Russia?
3. Can Europe pull itself out of the doldrums, and will Greece - or perhaps Portugal - exit the EU and create volatility.
4. Will RBA Governor Glen Stevens get his way, and will the A$ continue towards his $0.75c target, possibly driven by a further rate cut?
5. Locally 2014 was a year of missed opportunities and fumbles for the government, and although an expanded and increased GST is being discussed, it's unlikely for the time being. So what's in store for the budget and politics in general?

All these questions and more will be covered at AFM and Deloitte's "Looking Forward, Looking Back" lunchtime seminar on Thursday 12 February in Sydney. We'll have four of the best and brightest fund managers on hand, including Simon Shields, George Colman, John Corr and Monik Kotetcha to give you the benefit of their opinion, so if you would like to attend, please register your interest here.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund returned 1.53% during December, bringing 2014 performance to 5.77% (ASX 200 Acc 5.61%) with volatility at 4.17% (Index 10.95%).

The Morphic Global Opportunities Fund 2.62% in December bringing the annual return to 13.99% (Global Equity Index 12.57%) with a volatility of 7.75%.

Bennelong Alpha 200 Fund returned -0.13% during December, bringing returns to 2.26% over 2014 (ASX Accum Index 5.61%).

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

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Australian Fund Monitors are helping to raise awareness to support research into prevention and cure for cerebral palsy.  For more information visit www.cpresearch.org.au or contact me by email.