NEWS
15 Aug 2025 - Hedge Clippings |15 August 2025
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Hedge Clippings | 15 August 2025 RBA Cuts Rates - But Is It a Victory Lap or Wishful Thinking? This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia made headlines with a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the cash rate down to 3.60% - the third move in the current easing cycle. The decision was unanimous and, according to the Board, driven by a "further moderation in inflation" and "easing labour market conditions." Unanimous means that six members of the board changed their views since the previous meeting held just five weeks earlier, so one has to wonder if the widespread outcry and criticism following that decision had any cognitive effect on the board? Maybe we're being a touch too cynical, but scratch beneath the surface, and the decision should have been far from clear-cut, as outlined in our interview below with Seed's Nick Chaplin, and Renny Ellis from Arculus. Yes, inflation is falling - the trimmed mean now sits at 2.7%, with headline inflation at 2.1%, helped along by temporary government cost-of-living relief measures which will now expire. The RBA's updated forecasts assume inflation will continue its graceful descent, conveniently alongside a "gradual" rate-cutting path. But the real economy isn't exactly booming in the background. While the RBA noted that "private demand appears to have been recovering," it also admitted that household spending is fragile and highly sensitive to both interest rates and confidence. Wage growth is down, productivity remains poor, and unit labour costs are still elevated - hardly a recipe for sustained disinflation. However, maybe hanging on for another six weeks before the next meeting at the end of September would have been - to use a military term - "a bridge too far." And then there's the global picture. The RBA acknowledged "elevated uncertainty," especially around trade policy and international demand, while reassuring us that "more extreme outcomes are likely to be avoided." That might be optimism, or just a polite RBA way of saying "we hope the Donald doesn't blow the world economy up." The labour market, however resilient, is showing cracks - July unemployment (post meeting) came in at 4.2%, down from 4.3%, but is up (and trending up) almost 1% over the past 3 years. The Bank continues to hedge, saying conditions are "a little tight" while also noting underutilisation is low. In the end, this rate cut appears as much about buying insurance against a downturn (not to mention keeping faith with the market's expectations) as it is about celebrating inflation control. The RBA is clearly worried - but doesn't want to say so too loudly. As always, the Board said it will remain "attentive to the data" - and ready to act. Whether that means more cuts or a hasty reversal remains to be seen. Cautious optimism? Or cautious back-pedalling? We'll know more when the next round of CPI, wages, and spending data lands, ready for the next RBA meeting at the end of September. Australia's real issue is productivity, and next week's talk-fest in Canberra is sounding more and more like a PR exercise, with Albo promising not to do anything that wasn't on the election agenda - which we presume is good news for his wedding plans. Labor is assured of being in government for at least two terms, so surely they should have the confidence to be bold? Or could it be caution again? They'll have to wear responsibility and the outcome (as will the rest of us) beyond the next election, and possibly the one after that, so better they don't rock the boat. Video Expert Analysis of the RBA's August 12 Rate Decision Manager Insights | Digital Asset Funds Management News | Insights 5 Things Investors Get Wrong About Trend-Following | East Coast Capital Management 10k Words | Equitable Investors Market Update | Australian Secure Capital Fund July 2025 Performance News Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Seed Funds Management Hybrid Income Fund Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) |
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15 Aug 2025 - Performance Report: DS Capital Growth Fund
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15 Aug 2025 - Performance Report: Cyan C3G Fund
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15 Aug 2025 - Fed, BOJ and China navigate uncertain growth and inflation paths
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Fed, BOJ and China navigate uncertain growth and inflation paths Nikko Asset Management August 2025 Firm US GDP supports Fed's decision to keep rates on hold for nowThe Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates on hold on 30 July, maintaining the policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, following stronger-than-expected US Q2 GDP data. Although the Fed's rate decision was widely anticipated, the first double dissent in 30 years--from Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman--highlighted a divergence in outlooks among Federal Open Market Committee voters. Waller and Bowman pointed to early signals of softness in the labour market, although data suggest that economic activity continues to be supported by offsetting factors, even in the post-2 April world. In Q2, US consumption made a positive contribution to growth, albeit less strongly than in late 2024 (Chart 1). However, a significant expansion in net exports--compensating for front-loaded imports in Q1--more than offset a decline in private domestic investment and subdued government consumption. Still, US growth remains influenced by temporary factors, and households may not yet have felt the full brunt of US tariffs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged emerging risks in the labour market but emphasised that employment is closer to one of the Fed's goals of full employment than inflation is to its mandate of price stability. Supporting Powell's point, the US core PCE index posted a smaller-than-expected decline, falling from 3.5% in Q1 to 2.5% in Q2, meaning that it is still half a percentage point above the Fed's target. Chart 1: US GDP contributions (seasonally adjusted, annualised rate)
Source: Nikko Asset Management, Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy, BEA Tariff deadline rush underscores reasons to wait and seeA deluge of new information on US tariffs continues to pour in, with the market and the US economy still trying to digest its implications. Tariff rates range widely, from 15% on exports from heavyweight South Korea to a higher-than-expected 25% on Indian goods. The only constant appears to be that tariffs remain subject to upward pressure, although the situation is perhaps not as severe as some worst-case scenarios had projected. The full economic impact of the newly agreed tariffs remains unclear, but it is likely that the most significant effects of the US tariff war still lie ahead. As we pointed out in Global Investment Committee's outlook: narrowing growth differentials , a New York Fed corporate survey shows that most companies plan to pass on tariff costs, at least partially, and that they typically do so with a lag of one to three months. Since we are not even a month past the initial 4 July "reciprocal" tariff deadline announced in April, further pass-through may still be pending in inflation data. Of course, the timing of such price rises may not be ideal as the job market has shown early signs of softening. However, repeated micro-adjustments to global supply chains and prices that result in consistent shocks may work against arguments for rate cuts based on labour market weakness. This could be particularly true if consumers internalise such repeated shocks and adjust their long-term inflation expectations upward. It is worth noting that once internalised and passed through into long-term expectations, inflation tends to be sticky. As such, it is not certain if the prevailing effect will ultimately be a decline in demand driven by rising unemployment. BOJ stands pat but slightly more hawkish on growth and inflation outlookThe Bank of Japan (BOJ), like the Fed, opted on 31 July to remain in wait-and-see mode, keeping its policy rate on hold at 0.5%. However, in its updated outlook the BOJ modestly revised its near-term growth view from 0.5% to 0.6%. In addition, it significantly revised its near-term core CPI outlook from 2.2% to 2.7%. The central bank also modestly upgraded its longer-term core CPI projection; its two-year forward CPI forecast was revised back to 2% from 1.9%. These revisions, all else equal, provide a greater argument for a more hawkish BOJ compared to May. Meanwhile, the assumption that core CPI will slow from 2.7% in the current fiscal year to 1.8% in the next is highly dependent on the pricing-out of fresh food prices and absence of other inflationary factors going into fiscal 2026. Should prices remain more robust over late 2025 and household purchasing power stay intact, the BOJ may be prompted to bring forward its rate hike timeline. Our central scenario remains that the BOJ is likely to hike rates before the end of 2025. China's Politburo also in wait-and-see mode, keeps policy powder dryAmid the global wave of data, China's Politburo expressed confidence in the resilience of the Chinese economy but has so far refrained from offering new policy measures. As trade negotiations with the US have now been extended, China could be trying to maintain some dry powder to react to the eventual outcome of the talks--particularly if it poses any additional challenges to external demand. A key development is the 4th Plenum in October, which will focus on the 15th Five-year plan (2026 to 2030). This event may provide an opportunity for new policy announcements in response to what is revealed after extended China-US trade talks. By October, the need for consumption-focused stimulus may become apparent, particularly if China's current "anti-involution" campaign--aimed at curbing excessive capacity--proves ineffective in offsetting price declines stemming from households' soft demand and precautionary savings. Funds operated by this manager: Nikko AM Global Share Fund , Nikko AM ARK Global Disruptive Innovation Fund , Nikko AM NZ Cash Fund , Nikko AM NZ Corporate Bond Fund , Nikko AM Core Equity Fund (NZ) , Nikko AM Global Shares Hedged Fund (NZ) , Nikko AM KiwiSaver Scheme Balanced Fund (NZ) , Nikko AM ARK Disruptive Innovation Fund (NZ) Important disclaimer information Please note that much of the content which appears on this page is intended for the use of professional investors only. |
14 Aug 2025 - Performance Report: 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged)
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14 Aug 2025 - Performance Report: Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund
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14 Aug 2025 - Expert Analysis of the RBA's August 12 Rate Decision
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Expert Analysis of the RBA's August 12 Rate Decision FundMonitors.com August 2025 |
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Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Nicholas Chaplin, Director and Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management, and Renny Ellis, Director & Head of Portfolio Management at Arculus Funds Management, following the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprise 25 basis point rate cut. The panel debates whether the decision was justified or politically driven, explores its implications for inflation, the property market, and investors, and examines the potential for further rate cuts. They also discuss global influences, including U.S. tariffs and their impact on inflation and markets. |
14 Aug 2025 - Sustainable equities outlook: AI's transformative role in an evolving global economy
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Sustainable equities outlook: AI's transformative role in an evolving global economy Janus Henderson Investors August 2025 Portfolio Manager Hamish Chamberlayne explores how, in a world marked by geopolitical upheaval, artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming traditional economic forces, presenting both opportunities and challenges. In today's world, characterised by heightened confusion and unpredictability, geopolitical dynamics are increasingly overshadowing traditional economic forces. Nations worldwide grapple with declining workforce participation, ageing demographics, unproductive government expenditure, and substantial fiscal deficits. Yet, within this turbulent landscape the secular drivers of sustainable investing remain intact. Secular investment trends around electrification, renewable energy, digitalisation, AI, and reshoring are progressing uninterrupted Last year, investment in the green transition reached unprecedented levels, surpassing US$2 trillion for the first time.1 The majority of this funding was directed towards established technologies such as renewable energy, energy storage solutions, smart grids and electric vehicles (EVs). Despite the recent stagnation of US climate initiatives, Europe and China are intensifying their clean energy and broader sustainability efforts. Global EV sales this year are forecast to grow by 25% (22 million) compared to 2024, with China accounting for almost two thirds, followed by Europe (17%).2 Even in the US, EV sales are set to grow by 7% this year despite the Trump administration's withdrawal of federal support. Meanwhile, President Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' will provide significant government funding, grants and tax incentives for companies investing in the US. Reshoring manufacturing and developing supply chain resilience in critical minerals are set to underpin a prolonged investment cycle, which is further fuelled by the gigantic levels of investment going towards AI infrastructure. The large tech companies dubbed the 'Magnificent 7' are spending in excess of half a trillion dollars3 annually in the race for AI supremacy. All of this investment is resource and labour intensive and we see sustained growth in demand for power and electrification infrastructure to support it. The role of AI in decarbonisation These high levels of investment provoke questions about environmental sustainability. The build out of all this AI and electrification infrastructure is also carbon intensive and we are paying close attention to the fact that carbon emissions are not going in the right direction. Although we are concerned by this uptick in emissions, we are optimistic that AI will ultimately play a beneficial role in decarbonisation efforts through advancements in innovation and productivity; and we remain confident that the growing demand for energy will be met with increased investments in clean energy solutions. At Janus Henderson we have a proprietary climate transition analysis tool, and we are maintaining close engagement dialogue with our investee companies regarding their decarbonisation pathways. Thus far, we are pleased to report that we have seen no evidence from the companies we invest in that their corporate sustainability initiatives are slowing. In fact, we see that companies worldwide keep setting net-zero targets and pouring capital into efficiency, waste reduction and supply-chain resiliency, providing durable foundations for our sustainable investment themes. Running hot - a fiery economy ahead? Coincident with these high levels of investment, government deficits are expected to remain large, and this is supportive of corporate profitability and asset prices. When combined with easing monetary policy, and pro-growth changes to banking regulation, we believe this is a positive backdrop for global equity markets. Sustainable fundamentalsOur team continues to concentrate on companies positioned to benefit from these enduring sustainability trends. For example, we favour sectors such as industrials and information technology - areas replete with innovators solving efficiency and climate challenges. Companies within electrical equipment, professional services, software, renewables, automotive technology and infrastructure are exposed to the secular themes of electrification, digital services, AI and decarbonisation. These companies are capitalising on booming demand and are exactly the kind of "picks-and-shovels" providers enabling this digital, electric and green future that the world is transitioning towards. We believe it is important to seek out high-quality businesses with strong free cash flow and durable growth. This discipline tempers volatility during market shocks. It echoes lessons from 2020, when companies with robust financials and sustainable moats (competitive advantage that helps protect a company's profitability) proved far more resilient. By "staying on the right side of disruption" - i.e. investing in firms driving change rather than those at risk from it - we believe investors can better weather turbulence and capture superior growth over time. This means being incessantly forward-looking in approach. Our thesis is grounded in the principles of durability allied with innovation - as Peter Drucker, the Austrian American author and consultant who helped develop modern management theory, reminds us:
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Funds operated by this manager: Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest Fund , Janus Henderson Conservative Fixed Interest Fund , Janus Henderson Diversified Credit Fund , Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund , Janus Henderson Tactical Income Fund , Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest Fund - Institutional , Janus Henderson Conservative Fixed Interest Fund - Institutional , Janus Henderson Cash Fund - Institutional , Janus Henderson Global Multi-Strategy Fund , Janus Henderson Global Sustainable Equity Fund , Janus Henderson Sustainable Credit Fund , Janus Henderson Net Zero Transition Resources Fund 1Source: International Energy Agency, 'World Energy Investment 2025'. 2Source: BloombergNEF, 'Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025', 18 June 2025. 3Source: Financial Times, 'What'll happen if we spend nearly $3tn on data centres no one needs?', 30 July 2025 Deficit: A government deficit occurs when expenses exceed revenues (or taxation). Equity: A security representing ownership, typically listed on a stock exchange. 'Equities' as an asset class means investments in shares, as opposed to, for instance, bonds. To have 'equity' in a company means to hold shares in that company and therefore have part ownership. Free cash flow: the amount of cash a company has left after paying operating expenses and capital expenditure. Fiscal/Fiscal policy: Describes government policy relating to setting tax rates and spending levels. Fiscal policy is separate from monetary policy, which relates to control of interest rates and the money supply and is typically set by a central bank. Magnificent 7: A group of seven dominant tech companies - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla - that have helped drive strong returns in the US stock market in recent years. Net zero: A target of achieving a balance between greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere and the amount removed from it. Greenhouse gases are those that contribute to climate change. Secular: In economics, this refers to trends that are long term and sustained, distinct from short-term seasonal variations or the business cycle (expansion and Volatility: The rate and extent to which the price of a portfolio, security or index moves up or down. References made to individual securities do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, investment strategy or market sector, and should not be assumed to be profitable. All opinions and estimates in this information are subject to change without notice and are the views of the author at the time of publication. Janus Henderson is not under any obligation to update this information to the extent that it is or becomes out of date or incorrect. The information herein shall not in any way constitute advice or an invitation to invest. It is solely for information purposes and subject to change without notice. This information does not purport to be a comprehensive statement or description of any markets or securities referred to within. Any references to individual securities do not constitute a securities recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Whilst Janus Henderson believe that the information is correct at the date of publication, no warranty or representation is given to this effect and no responsibility can be accepted by Janus Henderson to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. |
13 Aug 2025 - Performance Report: Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund
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13 Aug 2025 - Performance Report: Airlie Australian Share Fund
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