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A decade of delivery: infrastructure's changing world
4D Infrastructure
April 2026
(10-minute read)
The 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) recently passed its tenth anniversary, delivering annualised returns of over 10% since inception[1]. Global Portfolio Manager Sarah Shaw reflects on what's changed in the infrastructure world over that decade, what the next chapters look like, and why the core investment case remains as compelling as ever.
What's changed over the past ten years
The investment universe has grown -- and matured
When we launched the Fund in 2016, the global listed infrastructure universe was narrower and less sophisticated than it is today. The pool of investable companies has expanded substantially, as sub-sectors and individual companies have repositioned themselves to capitalise on the structural characteristics that define quality infrastructure: underpinned by contract or regulation, earnings visibility and long asset lives.
Market capitalisation across the asset class has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% since the late 1990s[2], and the number of specialist global infrastructure managers has grown from a handful to more than 60.[3] The asset class is better understood, better researched, and more institutionally accepted than it was a decade ago.
The demand for infrastructure investment has become structurally larger
Ten years ago, three core investment growth themes were gaining traction: the catch up from chronic under-investment in developed market infrastructure, global population growth, and the rise of the emerging middle class. Each remains significant today, but two additional themes have since emerged with a scale that few anticipated.
The first is energy transition. The decarbonisation of the global economy requires an unprecedented build-out of cleaner generation, networks/grids (transmission & distribution), and storage capacity. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that annual global clean energy investment, which was $1.5 trillion in 2022 and $2.2 trillion in 2025, needs to reach $3.5 trillion annually by 2030 and over $4.5 trillion by 2046. This isn't a short-term investment cycle - it's a multi-decade structural opportunity.
The second is AI and its insatiable demand for electricity, abundant water and digital infrastructure. The major hyperscalers are forecast to collectively deploy more than USD 600 billion in capital expenditure in 2026 alone[4], with the vast majority directed at data centre expansion and AI compute infrastructure. Global data centre electricity demand is projected to more than double by 2030, reaching nearly 1,000 TWh. This is roughly equivalent to Japan's entire annual electricity consumption.[5] The infrastructure that carries, stores, and powers the digital economy - fibre, towers, substations, and transmission grids - is being recognised as the critical backbone it is.
Taking the full picture together - energy transition, digital transformation, population growth, replacement of ageing developed-market assets, and the emergence of the middle class - the McKinsey Global Institute estimates that over USD 100 trillion of global infrastructure investment is needed through to 2040 (~USD 7 trillion per annum). The world is not close to spending at that rate.[6] That gap between need and delivery is the opportunity and critically this investment must happen regardless of geopolitics, trade wars, wars, or economic cycles.
Geopolitical complexity has intensified
Managing country and political risk has always been central to 4D's investment process. Over the past decade, that discipline has been tested by Brexit, a global pandemic and related fallout, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on energy markets, China's property sector stress and longer-term demographic pressures, the resurgence of resource nationalism, and more recently the Middle East conflict. Infrastructure assets sit at the intersection of economics and politics and understanding the regulatory and sovereign environment in which each asset operates is, in our view, non-negotiable for a disciplined global approach.
Sustainability has evolved from environmental screening to systemic integration
A decade ago, ESG in infrastructure was largely synonymous with carbon footprint and environmental compliance. The conversation has since broadened substantially. Gas and nuclear were written off under early green mandates but have undergone a significant re-evaluation as policymakers grappled with the realities of energy security and transition sequencing. Responsible investment is now respected as a system-level discipline, encompassing social licence, regulatory relationships, community resilience, and governance quality. 4D's country-level ESG analysis, integrated into our bottom-up stock selection, has always reflected this more complete picture.
Physical climate risk is now a core investment variable
The increasing frequency and severity of weather events such as floods, wildfires and extreme temperatures directly affect the value and viability of infrastructure assets. Our analysis now incorporates asset-level climate exposure as a material risk consideration, not a secondary one.
What will change
Looking ahead, we expect at least six forces to continue to shape the infrastructure universe over the next decade.
The energy transition will continue to drive substantial investment needs
While the speed of ultimate decarbonisation remains unclear, there appears to be a real opportunity for multi-decade investment as every country moves towards a cleaner environment. Energy transition and decarbonisation of the power sector is an obvious thematic and is expected to have the greatest impact on countries looking for Net Zero. However, it is not just the energy sector with other forms of infrastructure, namely transportation and technology, also having a key role to play. There will be no Net Zero without significant new infrastructure spend.
The 2022 energy crisis across Europe highlighted that this transition must be managed in a socially responsible way with security of supply a priority. This realisation has fast-tracked the build of new renewables sources, increased investment in grids to enable its distribution to end users and reaffirmed the importance of transition fuels such as gas in the shift.
Electricity demand linked to AI will rise sharply
AI and data centres are the defining technological story of this decade. And data centres are, fundamentally, an infrastructure demand story. They require enormous amounts of secure base-load energy -- preferably green -- and an abundance of water for cooling. IEA projects that data centres will drive more than 20% of electricity demand growth in advanced economies to 2030, and in the US, data centres could account for almost half of the growth in electricity demand between now and 2030.
Further to this, data centres, fibre networks, subsea cables, and satellite systems are increasingly being treated by governments as strategic infrastructure assets. We expect this will accelerate regulatory framework development and investors will need to navigate a more complex approval and operating environment for digital assets, particularly in geopolitically sensitive jurisdictions.
Emerging markets will become an increasingly active part of the opportunity set
Emerging market (EM) economies are expected to grow rapidly over the next 30 years, altering the current world economic order which has been in place for much of the post-WWII era. This growth will be driven by an evolving middle class. Given the potential size of the middle class in EMs (which make up over 85% of the global population) changes in spending and consumption patterns will have significant implications for global business opportunities and infrastructure investment for decades to come.
The infrastructure investment need in these regions is huge. For example, EMs currently have one-third of the energy consumption per capita of the developed world. As incomes rise, that gap closes -- and the infrastructure to support it must continue to be built with over two thirds of the forecast clean energy investment needed in the emerging world.
As governance frameworks mature and institutional capital deepens in key markets, we expect the investable EM infrastructure universe to expand, and for active managers with dedicated and experienced analytical capability to be well positioned to capture that opportunity.
Water security is the underappreciated dimension of the investment imperative
Chronic underinvestment in ageing water networks across developed markets -- where pipe replacement cycles routinely run decades behind schedule and leakage rates in some systems exceed 30% of total supply -- is creating a huge capital deployment opportunity. In the emerging world, the imperative is more acute still: more than two billion people lack access to safely managed drinking water, and the UN's Sustainable Development Goal 6 -- universal access to clean water and sanitation by 2030 -- is materially off track, redirecting political will and multilateral capital toward the sector.
The convergence of climate stress such as droughts, floods, and rising water scarcity is intensifying the physical risk to water assets and the cost of inaction. And the AI theme compounds the need for secure water sources as it is essential for cooling. Water infrastructure is transitioning from an afterthought in infrastructure portfolios to an important opportunity.
Deglobalisation will reshape transport, logistics, and industrial infrastructure
The fragmentation of global supply chains - driven by geopolitical tensions, economic nationalism, and the strategic imperative for greater self-sufficiency - is redirecting trade flows and creating new infrastructure investment requirements that did not exist a decade ago.[7] The reshoring of manufacturing to the US, Europe, and strategic allies is generating demand for industrial facilities, regional logistics networks, port upgrades, and rail and road connections that support new trade corridors. This, coupled with increasing desire for energy independence, is driving even more demand for domestic energy infrastructure. For infrastructure investors, this represents a structural shift in the composition of the investable universe and underscores the importance of active, geopolitically-informed portfolio management.
Defence and security spending will drive a new wave of dual-use infrastructure
Governments across Europe, Asia-Pacific, and North America are materially increasing defence budgets in response to a more fractured global security environment. EU member states spent €343 billion on defence in 2024, a 19% increase year-on-year, with further increases expected.[8] The implications for infrastructure are substantial: hardened communications networks, secure energy supply, resilient transport corridors, and cyber-capable digital infrastructure are all critical components of modern defence readiness. Much of this investment will be channelled through, or create demand for, listed infrastructure companies.
What hasn't changed
Infrastructure fundamentals have proven true to label
Over the past decade, the global listed infrastructure universe has navigated some of the most severe macro shocks in living memory: a global pandemic, supply chain collapse, a surge in inflation not seen since the 1980s, a European land war, and an energy crisis that redrew assumptions about how the world powers itself. Through all of it, infrastructure earnings have done what the asset class promised: they have held up.
That resilience reflects the structural characteristics that define infrastructure: long-duration contracted or regulated earnings streams, essential service monopolies, and pricing mechanisms with inflation linkage. More importantly, over the last decade the annualised earnings CAGR of the listed infrastructure universe has significantly exceeded that of general equities - a record that speaks to the quality of the underlying cash flows, not simply market conditions. Yield has also been a consistent differentiator. In every year of the Fund's ten-year life, the income component of listed infrastructure has exceeded that of broad global equities.[9]
Infrastructure is still not well understood as a standalone asset class
The persistent perception of listed infrastructure as a 'bond proxy': reactive to interest rate movements and little else. This continues to understate the earnings dynamism, diversification benefits, and structural growth potential of the asset class. The reality is that infrastructure companies generate earnings growth through capital investment cycles, pricing power, and volume growth, not simply by the level of rates. That mischaracterisation has, if anything, created ongoing opportunities for active managers prepared to look through it.
Allocations remain sub-optimal
Despite the asset class's risk-adjusted return profile - delivering broadly comparable long-term returns to global equities with materially lower volatility and downside capture - institutional and retail allocations to listed infrastructure remain modest. Many global equity managers hold minimal infrastructure exposure, often concentrated in a small number of large-cap utility names. The diversification and income benefits of a dedicated, actively managed global infrastructure allocation continue to be under-utilised.
The listed-versus-unlisted valuation gap persists
Institutional capital continues to flow disproportionately to unlisted infrastructure, tolerating illiquidity premiums and elevated entry valuations. Listed infrastructure offers access to the same underlying asset with daily liquidity, lower transaction costs, and, at current valuations, what we consider a compelling relative entry point. As listed infrastructure fundamentals continue to prove themselves and the asset class benefits from increased institutional recognition, we believe this discount represents an embedded source of potential value for long-term listed infrastructure investors.
A global portfolio must genuinely be global
The temptation to treat 'global' infrastructure through a developed-market lens - principally North America and Western Europe - remains common. At 4D we have always believed, and our experience over ten years has reinforced, that a portfolio which ignores the scale, diversity, and growth potential of Asia, Latin America, and evolving emerging markets is accepting a significant constraint on both return potential and portfolio construction quality.
Not just a defensive allocation -- a structural growth story
Ten years ago the 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) launched with the conviction that a rigorously managed, genuinely global portfolio of listed infrastructure assets could deliver reliable, macro-aware returns through market cycles. A decade of annualised returns exceeding 10%, through some of the most challenging market conditions in modern history, has validated that conviction.
What has changed is the scale of the opportunity. The energy transition, the digital economy, the reshoring of supply chains, the emerging middle class evolution, and decades of under-investment in developed markets have created a pipeline of infrastructure investment need that will define capital allocation for the next generation.
What hasn't changed is our approach. Disciplined country and sector analysis. Integrated and rigorous bottom-up/top down stock selection. A focus on quality assets with superior management teams, visible earnings, genuine competitive moats, and appropriate valuations.
[1] The 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) returned 10.36% per annum net of fees and expenses for the ten years to 31 March 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
[2] GLIO (Global Listed Infrastructure Organisation), GLI101: Why Invest in GLI.
[3] GLIO, GLI101: Why Invest in GLI.
[4] Multiple sources. CreditSights (November 2025) projected aggregate capex for the five largest hyperscalers (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle) at approximately USD 602 billion in 2026. Subsequent guidance from individual companies following Q4 2025 earnings calls suggests aggregate 2026 capex could exceed USD 650 billion.
[5] International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy and AI Special Report, April 2025.
[6] 'The Infrastructure Moment', September 2025.
[7] IFM Investors, Infrastructure Horizons 2025 report.
[8] European Commission, ReArm Europe / SAFE programme, 2025. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 2025; European Commission, October 2025. commission.europa.eu
[9] GLIO, GLI101: Why Invest in GLI. On average since 2003, global listed infrastructure has yielded approximately 3.6% versus 2.6% for global equities. glio.org
Funds operated by this manager:
4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) , 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (AUD Hedged)
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