Expert Analysis of the RBA's February 03 Rate Decision

FundMonitors.com

February 2026

Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Nicholas Chaplin, Director and Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management, and Renny Ellis, Director & Head of Portfolio Management at Arculus Funds Management.

The discussion examines the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest rate hike, with both guests arguing the RBA misjudged conditions by cutting rates last year and is now reacting too heavily to short-term data. They highlight the role of policy lags, the strengthening Australian dollar, and bond market signals, warning that further tightening risks overshooting and undermining economic stability.

2025 EM Outlook: Reading the tea leaves

Ox Capital (Fidante Partners)

January 2026

(15-minute read)

Investing is like boiling a kettle. When the kettle is hot, one can get burnt. In the investing world, it doesn't always pay to chase what is hot. When an economy is running hot, central banks will need to hike interest rates to ensure inflation stays under control. When an investment theme is "hot", its future potential is rapidly priced in by investors. In comparison, when the kettle is warming up, one has time to set up the tea set, watch the kettle boil, take a moment to brew the tea to hit its full flavour, and finally sit back and enjoy.

EM equities have been "cold" for over a decade, but the kettle is finally warming up. Between Jan-24 and Nov-25, EM equities performed just as well as US equities. In particular, the Chinese equity market, which was considered "uninvestible" by some funds, has outperformed the US, Europe, and Japan markets over the same period.

Figure 1: Chinese equity performance overtook key DMs in 2025

Source: MSCI.

Developed markets have been running too "hot"

In 2026, the "hot" developed markets (DMs) will have their share of challenges. Many developed economies have been running "hot" for some years propelled mostly by debt accumulation and rising asset prices. Since the pandemic, most developed economies have added debt to fund deficit spending for the maintenance of living standards. Politicians have often picked the easy option of further spending rather than reining in budget deficits.

Global markets are starting to contemplate these latent risks. The weakening US dollar (USD), surging gold prices, and rising bond yields in the US and Japan (now over 3% for 30-year Japanese Government Bonds) are perhaps foretelling the problems ahead.

Figure 2: USD weakening of 2025

Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies.

Figure 3: The gold price has rallied nearly 60% YTD at time of writing

Source: Goldprice.org.

Figure 4: Rising 30-year bond yields in the US and Japan

Source: Bloomberg.

A changing geopolitical landscape and global alliances deepen the challenge ahead, as countries are also compelled to fund new defence spending. To fund this ever-growing government debt, it is likely that major DM central banks will loosen monetary policy (i.e. cut rates or even pursue QE in some form) in the face of moderately high inflation rates.

Emerging markets are only "warming up" in 2025

EM countries have better economic and demographic foundations than most of the developed world. Most EM governments have managed their finances responsibly. Consider Malaysia, which is actively pursuing fiscal reform, and Indonesia, which under President Joko Widodo has improved in leaps and bounds. Meanwhile, the Chinese and Vietnamese governments have both made tough decisions to keep their property markets in check. Having learnt their lessons from previous debt crisis, EM governments have worked hard to keep fiscal deficits under control, while still pursuing effective pro-development agendas.

Even through COVID, they refrained from large government handouts. EM central banks broadly have no hesitation pushing interest rates higher to support domestic currencies and keep inflation in check where needed, even as many of the DM central banks' have begun new easing cycles. Case in point in monetary policy responsibility is Brazil, where the central bank has kept interest rates at 15% despite inflation running at a much lower 4-5%!

As governments remain sensible in EM, many countries in EM have reasonable real interest rates (>3%). That is, there can be more monetary policy easing to come, supporting economic growth and equity markets in many EMs.

Figure 5: Brazil, Indonesia, Philippines and India have high real rates of over 3%

Source: Trading Economics.

2025 can be best characterised as a year of "de-risking" across EM. By and large, EM economies have emerged unscathed from US tariff negotiations. The final tariffs were largely between 10-20% in Asia, much lower than the initial "targets". This left the relative competitiveness of these Asian EM export nations unscathed. Two EM countries which were singled out by the US were Brazil and India. However, exports to the US from India and Brazil only account for a small percentage of GDP (≈2%), and likely any loss in volumes from the US can be taken up by other trading partners. Finally, China and the US agreed to a trade truce in November 2025, meaning trade and key external risks are settled for now, and we expect this to remain at least through 2026.

Figure 6: Key Asian nations we invest in remain highly competitive exporters, despite new tariffs imposed by the US

Source : Ox Capital research.

In China, it has been four years since the property market peaked. Property prices have declined as much as 30 to 40% in most cities. Several large private property developers have defaulted and been liquidated. Notably, the banking system has negotiated its way through the property market downturn well, with bad debt formation for Chinese banks trending down since 2021.

With the banking system intact, China is NOT Japan. The country is only working through a cyclical property market downturn, and it is at the later stage of this adjustment. We expect property prices to bottom in late 2026 / early 2027.

Figure 7: NPL formation in China is showing a healthy decline and banks' balance sheets are resilient

Source: JPMorgan.

What is often less mentioned is the transformation of the Chinese economy. The construction and real estate sectors have shrunk as percentage of GDP.

Figure 8: The construction and real estate sectors peaked at just over 15% of Chinese GDP in 2019, and are now around 12% of GDP

Source: Jefferies.

Despite this, the Chinese economy still managed to grow ~5% p.a. between 2021 to 2025. The shortfall in growth coming from the slowing real estate and construction sectors was made up by the export and industrial sectors. Since the first Trump administration, China has been developing other export markets. Between 2021 to 2025, we can see the rise of Chinese exports to the Global South (ASEAN, Latin America, Africa, India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Turkey), which have been able to offset falling exports to G7 nations.

Figure 9: G7 nations are no longer the top end markets for Chinese exports

Source: Jefferies, CEIC Data, General Administration of Customs.

Its growth potential is further bolstered by the rise of new and innovative industries. These days, China is the leading producer of solar and wind energy equipment. In 2023, it overtook Japan as the largest auto exporting country, and it is today leading the world in the transition to electric vehicles (EVs).

While China is now having success in various industrial and manufacturing end markets, for a time there was a fear that US sanctions could hold back China in the technology race by restricting access to semiconductor technology. Instead of becoming stifled, China has made it a national priority to develop domestic semiconductor know-how. In some product segments, the domestic suppliers are finally good enough to be considered as replacements for foreign imports. After semiconductors, the next front was AI. Again, China has shown that it is firmly in the race after the unveiling of DeepSeek in January 2025. Chinese AI companies, along with the open source community, can innovate and are often much more cost effective than the well-known hyperscalers.

In summary, EM economies are resilient and capable of withstanding external pressures.

Emerging markets are "heating up" in 2026

There are multiple catalysts on the horizon. We are optimistic on EM in 2026:

The weak USD:

As a rule of thumb, a weak USD is a tailwind for EM. Central banks in EM economies need to consider the impact on their currencies in their rate cut decisions. Hence, a weak USD affords EM economies greater flexibility, with inflation largely under control. A key event to watch next year is the appointment of the new US Federal Reserve Chairman, as Jerome Powell's term will expire in May 2026. If the new Federal Reserve looks to quickly cut rates to support the economy, there will be greater downwards pressure on the USD.

Source: Morgan Stanley.

Anything-but-AI:

AI has been the focus of investors for over two years now. Many traditional non-technology stocks have been left behind and de-rated. At some point in the future, momentum behind AI spending will inevitably slow. Hence, investors will need to look for the "anything-but-AI" investment. EM, in particular Asian equities, can be a fertile hunting ground for new ideas. Earnings are expected to grow strongly (17% YoY) in 2026 in Asia ex-Japan.

Figure 11: Asia ex-Japan forward earnings growth forecasts are strong and expected to stay high in 2026

Source: BofA, MSCI, FactSet.

EM macro is better:

In 2026, EMs are expected to grow faster than DMs (4.4% vs. 1.6%, respectively). Low inflation and high real interest rates suggest further room for multiple rate cuts in many EM economies. An important catalyst to watch out for is new stimulus policies in China in 2026. Most investors are not expecting much on this front. There will be upside if and when the Chinese government delivers on these measures in 2026.

Figure 12: GDP growth for EMs in Asia is higher than DMs in 2026

Source: BofA.

Value-up/shareholder return:

In 2025, we saw the rise of value-up programs emphasising minority rights in Asia. This is something we have not seen much of in our time investing in Asia. Korea, which drew attention from global investors with its value-up program, was one of the best performing markets in EM in 2025. Other countries are taking notice. Indonesia set up its sovereign wealth fund (Danantara) in February 2025. Danantara is pushing state-owned enterprises to improve return on equity, and provide better shareholder returns. Elsewhere, the Singaporean government is investing $5bn with fund managers under its market development program to improve the liquidity of small and mid-caps in Singapore. These initiatives can be rewarded more strongly as execution begins to come through.

Sunrise industries:

The US/China rivalry is leading to the rapid growth of many "sunrise" industries (and stocks) in China. China is looking to promote and create domestic champions to reduce its reliance on US suppliers. We are particularly encouraged by the strong returns seen in the Chinese biotech space in 2025 as investors have begun to wake up to their potential. Almost 50% of global drug licensing deals in 2025 were sourced from China. Outside of biotech companies, many of the emerging leaders in fields such as robotics, medical device, AI, SaaS, autonomous driving, LIDAR, semiconductor and fintech, for example, are listed and poised to deliver sharply accelerating growth in 2026 and beyond. Many of these companies are looking to expand globally. There are just as many exciting thematic ideas in EM as on the Nasdaq.

Figure 13: China is beginning to dominate global drug licensing with its innovative companies

Source: Citi Research.

Stronger shareholders in EM:

EM equities are in stronger hands and better supported than in years past, making them less susceptible to global fund flows. While mainland capital used to only make up 10 to 15% of turnover in Hong Kong, Chinese investors have now displaced global funds as the key investor, regularly accounting for two to three times this volume today, at 25 to 30% of daily turnover. In addition, another nice surprise for us, compared to years past, is the fact that we are seeing Chinese companies buying back their stocks aggressively. Some companies have shareholder return targets of as much as 10 to 15% a year. Similarly, the Indian stock market is well supported by local investors (through their regular saving plans). The Indian market has been resilient despite foreigners reducing their positions throughout 2025.

Time to sit back and enjoy the tea

Since COVID and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the world has been in a state of flux. The Trump administration has been working to re-cast the global order. Despite this, China has withstood and successfully countered challenges and a trade war with the US. Its local economy has proven sceptics wrong, and despite property prices being crunched in a bid by the Chinese government to reduce systematic risk, the banking system has hardly missed a beat. Outside of China, governments in EM are sticking to orthodox economics, by keeping budget deficits low, maintaining stable domestic currencies, with central banks fighting to keep inflation in check.

Just like any good tea, it will take time to brew. Despite a favourable macroeconomic backdrop, global investors are only lightly positioned in EM, well below the historical average.

Figure 14: EM positioning by global investors can pick up a long way from here

Source: JPM, EPFR Global, MSCI.

EM remains attractively valued relative to the rest of the world. It is encouraging to observe that valuations of emerging markets have increased in 2025; however, there remains room for further valuation uplift before these markets reach excessive valuation levels.

Figure 15: The MSCI EM Index is trading at only 13x P/E, less than half that of NASDAQ at 28x

Source: BofA, FactSet, MSCI.

Investments in EM will offer attractive returns in the long run. For example, the value of the US stock market is 20x larger than China, even though US GDP is only ~1.5x higher.

Figure 16: China should make up much more than its current ~3% of MSCI All Country World Index in time

Source: BofA, GFD Finaeon.

In a world of uncertainties, EM economies can be the "safe pair of hands" investors need. EM equities offer strong:

Thematics (many exciting sunrise (and non-AI) industries);
Stocks (quality businesses and solid earnings growth); and,
Macro (weak USD + low inflation = more rate cuts)

These positive factors are aligning in 2026. Our view is that EM equities are attractively valued and there are many exciting opportunities hidden in plain sight if investors pay attention!

Funds operated by this manager:

Ox Capital Dynamic Emerging Markets Fund

Important Information: This material has been prepared by Ox Capital Management Pty Ltd (Ox Cap) (ABN 60 648 887 914) Ox Cap is the holder of an Australian financial services license AFSL 533828 and is regulated under the laws of Australia. This document does not relate to any financial or investment product or service and does not constitute or form part of any offer to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe or interests and the information provided is intended to be general in nature only. This should not form the basis of, or be relied upon for the purpose of, any investment decision. This document is not available to retail investors as defined under local laws. This document has been prepared without taking into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Any person receiving the information in this document should consider the appropriaten

Airlie Small Companies Fund Quarterly Update

Airlie Funds Management

January 2026

(Viewing time: 11 mins)

Funds operated by this manager:

Airlie Australian Share Fund , Airlie Small Companies Fund

Important Information: 

This material has been delivered to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946 AFS Licence No. 304 301 trading as Airlie Funds Management ('Airlie') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation.  This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and Target Market Determination ('TMD') and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making a decision about whether to acquire, or continue to hold, the relevant financial product. A copy of the relevant PDS and TMD relating to an Airlie financial product or service may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4760 or by visiting www.airliefundsmanagement.com.au.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any financial product or service, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to implement its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of an Airlie financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements.

This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. Airlie makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of Airlie. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. No representation or warranty is made with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this material. Airlie will not be responsible or liable for any losses arising from your use or reliance upon any part of the information contained in this material.

Any third party trademarks contained herein are the property of their respective owners and Airlie claims no ownership in, nor any affiliation with, such trademarks.   Any third party trademarks that appear in this material are used for information purposes and only to identify the company names or brands of their respective owners. No affiliation, sponsorship or endorsement should be inferred from the use of these trademarks.  This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Airlie.

Quarterly State of Trend report - Q4 2025

East Coast Capital Management

January 2026

3-minute read

Funds operated by this manager:

ECCM Systematic Trend Fund

New Funds on FundMonitors.com

Below are some of the funds we've recently added to our database. Follow the links to view each fund's profile, where you'll have access to their offer documents, monthly reports, historical returns, performance analytics, rankings, research, platform availability, and news & insights. 

Orbis Global Equity LE Fund

View Profile

Want to see more funds?

Subscribe for full access to these funds and over 900 others

Navigating EMD: risks, rewards and what's ahead

abrdn

January 2026

(6-minute read)

Funds operated by this manager:

abrdn Sustainable Asian Opportunities Fund , abrdn Emerging Opportunities Fund , abrdn Sustainable International Equities Fund , abrdn Global Corporate Bond Fund (Class A)

Expert Analysis of the RBA's February 03 Rate Decision

FundMonitors.com

February 2026

Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Nicholas Chaplin, Director and Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management, and Renny Ellis, Director & Head of Portfolio Management at Arculus Funds Management.

The discussion examines the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest rate hike, with both guests arguing the RBA misjudged conditions by cutting rates last year and is now reacting too heavily to short-term data. They highlight the role of policy lags, the strengthening Australian dollar, and bond market signals, warning that further tightening risks overshooting and undermining economic stability.

Magellan Infrastructure Quarterly Update January 2026

Magellan Investment Partners

January 2026

(Viewing time: 15 mins)

Following a strong year for listed infrastructure assets, Co-Heads of Infrastructure and Portfolio Managers Ofer Karliner and Ben McVicar provide an overview of performance drivers and the outlook for the sector. They reflect on companies that performed well during the final quarter of 2025, as well as areas that lagged. They also discuss the key risks and opportunities facing the infrastructure sector in 2026 and outline how the portfolio is positioned to manage these risks while remaining exposed to long-term structural growth themes across global infrastructure.

Funds operated by this manager:

Magellan Global Fund (Open Class Units) ASX:MGOC , Magellan Infrastructure Fund , Magellan Global Opportunities Fund No.2 , Magellan Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) , Magellan Global Fund (Hedged) , Magellan Core Infrastructure Fund , Magellan Global Opportunities Fund Active ETF (ASX:OPPT)

Important Information: This material has been delivered to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946 AFS Licence No. 304 301 trading as Magellan Investment Partners ('Magellan Investment Partners') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation.  This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and Target Market Determination ('TMD') and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making a decision about whether to acquire, or continue to hold, the relevant financial product. A copy of the relevant PDS and TMD relating to a Magellan Investment Partners financial product may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4888 or by visiting www.magellaninvestmentpartners.com

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any financial product or service, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to implement its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of a Magellan Investment Partners financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements.

This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. No guarantee is made that such information is accurate, complete or timely and no warranty is given regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material.  Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of Magellan Investment Partners or the third party responsible for making those statements (as relevant). Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. No representation or warranty is made with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this material. Magellan Investment Partners will not be responsible or liable for any losses arising from your use or reliance upon any part of the information contained in this material.

Any third-party trademarks contained herein are the property of their respective owners and Magellan Investment Partners claims no ownership in, nor any affiliation with, such trademarks.   Any third-party trademarks contained herein are the property of their respective owners, are used for information purposes and only to identify the company names or brands of their respective owners, and no affiliation, sponsorship or endorsement should be inferred from such use. This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Magellan Investment Partners. (080825-#W17)

Expert Analysis of the RBA's December 9 Rate Decision

FundMonitors.com

December 2025

Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Nicholas Chaplin, Director and Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management, and Renny Ellis, Director & Head of Portfolio Management at Arculus Funds Management.

In this discussion, they share their perspectives on the RBA's recent rate decisions, whether cuts came too early, and how inflation dynamics, subsidies, and employment data are shaping economic expectations. They also explore the likelihood of future rate movements and what investors should watch heading into 2026.

Chris Gosselin speaks with Alan Pullen from Magellan Investment Partners about the philosophy behind the Magellan Global Opportunities Fund. Alan explains how the team focuses on high-quality global businesses, disciplined valuation, and long-term investing-especially important amid today's AI-driven market volatility.

Funds operated by this manager:

Magellan Global Fund (Open Class Units) ASX:MGOC , Magellan Infrastructure Fund , Magellan Global Opportunities Fund No.2 , Magellan Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) , Magellan Global Fund (Hedged) , Magellan Core Infrastructure Fund , Magellan Global Opportunities Fund Active ETF (ASX:OPPT)

What Really Causes a Market Crash

Marcus Today

October 2025

4-minute read

What could tip the market over? Well, let me ask you this question - what caused the 1987 crash?

Don't know? No, you don't know because there wasn't one specific reason for the 1987 crash.

When the dam cracks, you don't go looking at the first drop that came through the first crack and analyse it to find out why it cracked. Because the reason the dam cracked is that, in the year and a half prior to the 1987 crash, the Australian market went up over 100%.

What cracked the dam and caused the crash was a build-up of pressure over a long period of time, which eventually broke. Analysing the first drop - why it happened - was irrelevant.

We were sitting in Buckmaster & Moore in the UK, and we had one guy on the desk who was a young bloke.

He had a client in the US, and doing a few tickets in those days was meaningful because the commissions were about 1.6%, and they went up if the order was larger. Anyway, this young guy started ripping off red tickets - red ticket, red ticket - writing out another one, couldn't write fast enough.

He was on the direct line to the dealer at one particular institution - red ticket, another red ticket, another order, another order.

By lunchtime, the partners, who sat on the plinth higher than everybody else (such was the hierarchy in those days), took us all out to lunch at the Mithras Bar for pints of Pimm's to celebrate how much business he'd done.

We came back from lunch, and he started writing more red tickets - more and more. The hilarity and joy turned to concern. The partners started ringing up people in the industry to check whether these orders were legitimate.

They rang the bosses of the dealer at the fund manager, and they said, "Yes, it's okay - keep doing the orders. They're legitimate. He's not a rogue trader."

So, the first thing the partners did was start selling their own shares. Then they started ringing their best clients and saying, "This fund manager's selling - you need to start selling, because the market is way up there."

And this big institutional fund manager started to sell.

Before you knew where you were, everybody was trying to get ahead of everybody else selling.

It turned out that these partners had rung other brokers to ask, "Are you, by any chance, getting a particular institution selling a lot of stock?" And they said yes. It turned out that this institution, which was US-based, had sat in its ivory tower in New York and decided it was going to reduce its equity exposures across the world.

That meant, in the UK, it had so many billion pounds of stock to sell. It passed the order to the UK office, and the UK office, in order to get it done, had to go to every broker and give them a whole load of orders - and everything cascaded from there.

That's what starts a sell-off - a big institution, part of the herd, takes the lead and starts selling.

So, what we have to watch out for when the market's up here - and we're not in a bubble at the moment, but we're certainly elevated - is this:

For some reason, and it won't necessarily be logical or obvious (and the guy who writes the morning report in the newspaper won't know, but he'll make something up), someone is going to sit in an asset allocation meeting in New York or Singapore or Sydney and decide that their funds management group, which is running hundreds of billions, is going to start exiting Big Tech or exiting equities.

And before you know it, you're going to see sell orders coming into the market.

The moment the herd - already sensitive to a top - hears that, it'll join in, and the market will cascade.

It may not need a catalyst. There may be no headline that day. It'll just start.

If it hasn't really got a catalyst, it probably won't last long - it'll probably come back pretty quickly. But it can happen when the market's under pressure, as it is now, with this year's performance and the benefit of the doubt still being given to Big Tech earnings.

All the Big Tech stocks are priced for perfection - and many others as well. We're vulnerable to some big fund manager deciding to sell.

And everybody will chase them.

We're doing 200 miles an hour with our hair on fire. Fund managers aren't stupid - they know one of them will change their mind.

Look out for that day.

DISCLAIMER: This content is for general information purposes only and does not constitute personal financial advice. Please consider your own circumstances or seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

Funds operated by this manager:

Marcus Today Equity Income SMA , Marcus Today Growth SMA

Magellan Global Quarterly Update

Magellan Asset Management

October 2025

(Viewing time: 17 mins)

Head of Global Equities Arvid Streimann and Portfolio Manager Casey McLean provide an update on the Magellan Global Fund, reflecting on a quarter dominated by strong equity market performance and heightened investor focus on AI and semiconductor companies.

Funds operated by this manager:

Magellan Global Fund (Open Class Units) ASX:MGOC , Magellan Infrastructure Fund , Magellan Global Opportunities Fund No.2 , Magellan Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) , Magellan Global Fund (Hedged) , Magellan Core Infrastructure Fund , Magellan Global Opportunities Fund Active ETF (ASX:OPPT)

Important Information: This material has been delivered to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946 AFS Licence No. 304 301 trading as Magellan Investment Partners ('Magellan Investment Partners') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation.  This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and Target Market Determination ('TMD') and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making a decision about whether to acquire, or continue to hold, the relevant financial product. A copy of the relevant PDS and TMD relating to a Magellan Investment Partners financial product may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4888 or by visiting www.magellaninvestmentpartners.com

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any financial product or service, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to implement its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of a Magellan Investment Partners financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements.

This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. No guarantee is made that such information is accurate, complete or timely and no warranty is given regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material.  Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of Magellan Investment Partners or the third party responsible for making those statements (as relevant). Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. No representation or warranty is made with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this material. Magellan Investment Partners will not be responsible or liable for any losses arising from your use or reliance upon any part of the information contained in this material.

Any third-party trademarks contained herein are the property of their respective owners and Magellan Investment Partners claims no ownership in, nor any affiliation with, such trademarks.   Any third-party trademarks contained herein are the property of their respective owners, are used for information purposes and only to identify the company names or brands of their respective owners, and no affiliation, sponsorship or endorsement should be inferred from such use. This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Magellan Investment Partners. (080825-#W17)

Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Simone Haslinger, Chief Executive Officer at East Coast Capital Management.

Simone shares how clear, sustained trends across commodities, precious metals, and tech equities powered a standout quarter for East Coast Capital, emphasizing the strength of their fully systematic, data-driven strategy that thrives on market momentum and delivers steady, uncorrelated returns.

Funds operated by this manager: ECCM Systematic Trend Fund

Expert analysis on what the RBA will do next Tuesday, November 4

FundMonitors.com

31 October 2025

Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Nicholas Chaplin, Director and Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management, and Renny Ellis, Director & Head of Portfolio Management at Arculus Funds Management.

In this insightful discussion, the trio unpack the latest Australian inflation figures for the September quarter and consider what they might mean for interest rates, economic momentum, and investor sentiment heading into 2025. With the Reserve Bank's next move under close scrutiny, the conversation explores the data behind the numbers -- and what could lie ahead for markets and monetary policy.

Airlie Small Companies Fund Quarterly Update October 2025

Airlie Funds Management

October 2025

(Viewing time: 11 mins)

Portfolio Manager Will Granger discusses the recent quarter for the Airlie Small Companies Fund. Will explains the fund's disciplined focus on high-quality, financially strong businesses outside of the mining sector, and highlights a strong reporting season across core holdings. 

Funds operated by this manager:

Airlie Australian Share Fund , Airlie Small Companies Fund

Important Information: 

This material has been delivered to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946 AFS Licence No. 304 301 trading as Airlie Funds Management ('Airlie') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation.  This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and Target Market Determination ('TMD') and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making a decision about whether to acquire, or continue to hold, the relevant financial product. A copy of the relevant PDS and TMD relating to an Airlie financial product or service may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4760 or by visiting www.airliefundsmanagement.com.au.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any financial product or service, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to implement its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of an Airlie financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements.

This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. Airlie makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of Airlie. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. No representation or warranty is made with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this material. Airlie will not be responsible or liable for any losses arising from your use or reliance upon any part of the information contained in this material.

Any third party trademarks contained herein are the property of their respective owners and Airlie claims no ownership in, nor any affiliation with, such trademarks.   Any third party trademarks that appear in this material are used for information purposes and only to identify the company names or brands of their respective owners. No affiliation, sponsorship or endorsement should be inferred from the use of these trademarks.  This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Airlie.

One Theme That Can Make You Rich

Marcus Today

October 2025

4-minute read

Back in 2005, I had a client who became quite famous at Bell Securities because he was very good at investing. He was a fairly young guy who had inherited $500,000, and he lived in Bali. He had no stock market experience, but he had a lot of time in Bali.

He turned his hand to the stock market, found me as a broker (I think I was in the media at the time), and used me for information. He didn't really want advice. If I rang him up with my lame morning meeting ideas -- that he should buy Leighton Holdings because our analysts thought it was cheap -- he would say, "Look Marcus, what's the drive? Are its fundamentals changing for the better?" And I would say, "I don't know."

He ended up not asking for advice, just using me for execution. But he was so good at what he was doing, despite a low level of knowledge, that everybody at Bell started following him in the back office admin system. You would hear people talking over lunchtime and in the lift -- "What's Bali Boy doing?" (as we used to call him). People would track his trades, and he was very successful.

2005 was the resources boom era -- it ran from around 2002 to 2008. What he was doing was investing on thematics rather than stock picking. He parked most of that money in BHP and also bought Fortescue, which at the time was pretty much an explorer turning into a producer. He was terribly successful. He had other iron ore stocks too, and also bought into uranium. I think he had Paladin when it was still below 50 cents, and it went to $10. He was playing themes.

If you play themes, the stocks pick themselves. He had read one line about China building "a Brisbane every three months." So they were going to need a lot of iron ore and steel, and that was going to come from Australia. All the iron ore stocks had fundamentals changing for the better. That was the key driver -- fundamentals changing for the better. The catalyst was China building Brisbane every three months.

We kept seeing things happening in the iron ore stocks. The smaller ones were getting taken over. They were declaring special dividends. They were having share buybacks. They were reporting better than expected results. We thought, what does he know? Has he got inside information? Truth is, he knew nothing more than us -- but he did know there was a catalyst. China was driving the iron ore price, which was feeding into the fundamentals of every iron ore stock. And when companies are making money, they announce special dividends, they have better results, they take over other companies. That's what was happening in iron ore.

The lesson from dealing with him was simple: you need fundamentals changing for the better. That takes a catalyst. You have to find something changing in the world, and good things will happen to stocks in good sectors.

Another thing he was particularly good at was being in Bali, looking at Australia from a distance. We were too close. He was like the man in the moon, looking down and saying, "All that iron ore is going to come from Australia." We were looking at the fundamentals of BHP, the PEs and yields. He was looking conceptually, saying Australia was in the perfect spot to exploit China's economic revolution. Objectivity was his edge.

So: objectivity, playing themes, and making sure fundamentals are changing for the better.

Take that to today. One of the strongest themes in the world right now is AI. Companies are doing deals, taking each other over, announcing contracts, reporting better than expected results -- all driven by the investment in cloud infrastructure to facilitate AI, and the demand for computing power.

Objectively, Australians can look at the US and say: yep, that's happening. Objectively, we can also see it's all getting overvalued. Objectively, we can see that at some point it's sentiment-driven and that might change. But for now, that is the theme.

It's a great template for any investing: ask, what's the catalyst? Are the fundamentals changing for the better? If you get that right, the stocks pretty much pick themselves. And the events that surprise on the upside will just happen.

Good things happen to stocks in good sectors.

DISCLAIMER: This content is for general information purposes only and does not constitute personal financial advice. Please consider your own circumstances or seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

Funds operated by this manager:

Marcus Today Equity Income SMA , Marcus Today Growth SMA