This week saw the RBA meet most market observers' expectations by increasing rates by 0.25%...
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8 May 2026 - Hedge Clippings | 08 May 2026
By: FundMonitors.com
Hedge Clippings | 08 May 2026
This week saw the RBA meet most market observers' expectations by increasing rates by 0.25% - the second such move in a row, taking them back up to their previous post-COVID peak, and eradicating the three rate cuts they made last year. Hedge Clippings checked in with our regular contributors, Nick Chaplin from Seed Funds Management, and Renny Ellis from Arculus Funds Management, to get their respective views on the wisdom - or otherwise - of the Bank's decision.
Both were broadly united in the view that the RBA's latest 0.25% rate rise to 4.35% may have been widely anticipated, but was poorly timed, and raised more questions than it answered.
Nick Chaplin argued the move effectively reverses last year's rate cuts, taking the cash rate back to where it was before the RBA began easing. His central concern was the distinction between temporary inflation pressures and persistent inflation. With the trimmed mean holding at 3.3%, he questioned whether the RBA was reacting too heavily to energy-driven price pressures and their knock-on effects through logistics and household costs. While he accepted the Bank is right to be focused on inflation, he was skeptical of its approach, particularly the continued reliance on incremental 0.25% increases. If the RBA believes inflation risks are still rising, Nick suggested it may need to be clearer about where rates are heading, with the possibility that the cash rate could move as high as 4.85% before year-end.
Renny Ellis was more direct, describing the energy shock as transitory and arguing the RBA should have looked through it, at least until the June meeting. His concern is not that inflation should be ignored, but that the Bank has acted before the full economic impact of the previous two rate increases has flowed through. Renny also warned that the decision was made ahead of a Federal Budget due next week that may include higher taxes, housing-related measures and household handouts, all of which could materially alter the economic outlook.
Both Nick and Renny highlighted the risk that policy is now being tightened into a fragile environment. Ellis was particularly concerned about the potential for diesel rationing, arguing that it would almost certainly push Australia into recession. He drew a sharp contrast with 2020, when both the RBA and the Federal Government acted aggressively to avoid recession, noting that Australia's high household debt levels make a downturn especially dangerous.
A key point from Renny was that the usual transmission mechanisms for monetary policy look less effective in the current environment. With the Australian dollar already strong, he questioned how higher rates would help beyond depressing house prices and household spending. Nick added that a stronger dollar could itself make it harder for the economy to avoid recession, particularly given Australia's past reliance on currency weakness and resource exports to cushion downturns.
Both agreed that further rate increases may still become necessary later in the year, particularly if wages growth, the Fair Work Commission decision, fiscal policy and household spending keep demand elevated. However, both also argued that this was not the right moment to move. Their central criticism was not that inflation is irrelevant, but that the RBA has acted in a period of unusually poor visibility, with energy markets, the Budget and household stress all still unfolding.
So as Renny questions in the video below, that leaves the potential that we are headed not for the "recession we had to have" but for the "recession we can't afford"? The outcome or length of a one-page, paper-thin, so-called truce in the Middle East could tip the balance.
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[Current Manager Report if available]
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11 May 202610k Words | April 2026Equitable Investors
We couldn't help but look at geopolitical risk again - with the spike in a longer historical context than shown in March (2-minute read)
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11 May 2026 - 10k Words | April 2026
By: Equitable Investors
10k Words
Equitable Investors
April 2026
(2-minute read)
We couldn't help but look at geopolitical risk again - with the spike in a longer historical context than shown last month. Fertiliser prices are spiking in the wake of the Middle East situation. Yet the "breakeven" inflation rate based on Australian 10-year bonds remains at a relatively normal level, implying short term shocks are expected to have modest long-term ramifications. Our sentiment scores show ASX large cap sentiment rebounding but small caps trailing. The US experience has shown a large cap rebound of rare magnitude in recent days. Meanwhile, we talk about index concentration in the stock market but take a look at recent concentration in the world of venture capital. We divert to the recently-depressed valuation metrics for the tech sector. Then on to redemptions at leading private credit house Blue Owl Capital. Finally, energy consumption and income go hand-in-hand and we take a look at Australia's national debt stack.
Geopolitical Risk Index relative performance to VIX (US volatility) over 20 years
Source: Caldara and Iacoviello, Koyfin
Fertiliser price spikes and war
Source: Bloomberg
Aus 10-year bond yield-derived breakeven inflation rate: 2014 to Apr 2026
Source: RBA, Equitable Investors
ASX sentiment score (yield spread + VIX)
Source: St Louis Fed, Equitable Investors
ASX small cap sentiment score
Source: Koyfin
S&P 500 rallying 9.8% in 10-days - the 99.7th percentile of all 10 day returns
Source: 3Fourteen Research
~75% of all VC funds raised by just five firms & invested in five companies
Source: Pitchbook NVCA Venture Monitor, as of March 31, 2026
US tech sector PEG ratio (historical earnings growth)
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average EV/Revenue multiple (next 12 months revenue forecast) for Software industry
Source: Apollo, Illiquid Insights
Blue Owl quarterly redemption requests as a % of shares outstanding
Source: Global Markets Investor
US leveraged loan defaults: trailing 12-month count
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Fund returns are quoted net of all fees, expenses and accrued performance fees. Delivery of this report to a recipient should not be relied on as a representation that there has been no change since the preparation date in the affairs or financial condition of the Fund or the Trustee; or that the information contained in this report remains accurate or complete at any time after the preparation date. Equitable Investors Pty Ltd (EI) does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this report. To the extent permitted by law, EI disclaims all liability that may otherwise arise due to any information in this report being inaccurate or information being omitted. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation and needs of potential investors. Before making a decision to invest in the Fund the recipient should obtain professional advice. This report does not purport to contain all the information that the recipient may require to evaluate a possible investment in the Fund. The recipient should conduct their own independent analysis of the Fund and refer to the current Information Memorandum, which is available from EI.
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[Current Manager Report if available]
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By: FundMonitors.com
[Current Manager Report if available]
8 May 2026Expert Analysis of the RBA's May 5 Rate DecisionFundMonitors.com
Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Nicholas Chaplin, Director and Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management and Renny Ellis, Director & Head of Portfolio...
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8 May 2026 - Expert Analysis of the RBA's May 5 Rate Decision
By: FundMonitors.com
Expert Analysis of the RBA's May 5 Rate Decision
FundMonitors.com
May 2026
Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, spoke with Nicholas Chaplin, Director and Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management, and Renny Ellis, Director & Head of Portfolio Management at Arculus Funds Management.
The discussion examines the RBA's decision to raise rates to 4.35%, with a focus on inflation pressures, the impact of energy costs, recession risks, and the broader implications for households, markets, and the Australian economy.
8 May 2026Expert Analysis of the RBA's May 5 Rate DecisionFundMonitors.com
Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Nicholas Chaplin, Director and Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management and Renny Ellis, Director & Head of Portfolio...
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8 May 2026 - Expert Analysis of the RBA's May 5 Rate Decision
By: FundMonitors.com
Expert Analysis of the RBA's May 5 Rate Decision
FundMonitors.com
May 2026
Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, spoke with Nicholas Chaplin, Director and Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management, and Renny Ellis, Director & Head of Portfolio Management at Arculus Funds Management.
The discussion examines the RBA's decision to raise rates to 4.35%, with a focus on inflation pressures, the impact of energy costs, recession risks, and the broader implications for households, markets, and the Australian economy.
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1 May 2026 - Expert analysis on what the RBA will do next Tuesday, May 5
By: FundMonitors.com
Expert analysis on what the RBA will do next Tuesday, May 5
FundMonitors.com
May 2026
Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Nicholas Chaplin, Director and Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management, and Renny Ellis, Director & Head of Portfolio Management at Arculus Funds Management.
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30 Apr 2026 - Airlie Australian Share Fund Quarterly Update
By: Airlie Funds Management
Airlie Small Companies Fund Quarterly Update
Airlie Funds Management
January 2026
(Viewing time: 15 mins)
Amid a highly dynamic market environment, Deputy Portfolio Manager Joe Wright and Senior Equities Analyst Jack McNally provide an update on the Airlie Australian Share Fund. They discuss recent performance, including corporate activity and reporting season outcomes, as well as the impact of evolving market narratives such as artificial intelligence and geopolitical developments. Joe and Jack highlight how these dynamics have created opportunities across the portfolio, while reinforcing the fund's focus on quality businesses, disciplined valuation and long-term investment outcomes.
This material has been delivered to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946 AFS Licence No. 304 301 trading as Airlie Funds Management ('Airlie') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and Target Market Determination ('TMD') and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making a decision about whether to acquire, or continue to hold, the relevant financial product. A copy of the relevant PDS and TMD relating to an Airlie financial product or service may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4760 or by visiting www.airliefundsmanagement.com.au.
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By: FundMonitors.com
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By: FundMonitors.com
Expert Analysis of the RBA's March 17 Rate Decision
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March 2026
Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, spoke with Nicholas Chaplin, Director and Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management, and Renny Ellis, Director & Head of Portfolio Management at Arculus Funds Management, about the RBA's decision to raise interest rates by 0.25% in March. Both described the move as premature, noting the narrow 5-4 board vote reflected significant internal disagreement. They argued that last month's rate rise had yet to flow through to the economy, and that the board was relying on last year's inflation numbers prior to the release of the February figure due next week. In a nutshell, the decision to raise rates in March, rather than wait 6 weeks until the meeting scheduled for May 4th and 5th, was premature. The discussion also considered the role of rising oil prices and geopolitical developments, with both suggesting the RBA may have acted too quickly given the uncertain economic outlook.
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By: FundMonitors.com
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They discussed Allspring's public-markets fixed-income approach, focusing on risk-aware portfolio management, steady income above inflation, and global diversification, before turning to how geopolitical tensions, oil prices, inflation, and US politics may shape bond markets and investment positioning.
Key topics by timestamp:
0:07 - 5:13 Allspring's fixed income strategy, risk-aware bond investing, and global public markets approach
5:19 - 9:30 Iran conflict, oil prices, inflation risks, and central bank implications
9:32 - 16:20 US politics, energy prices, and the outlook for bond markets and portfolio positioning
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9 Mar 2026 - How to get the most from Fundmonitors | Webinar Recording 04 August 2025
By: FundMonitors.com
How to get the most from Fundmonitors
Webinar Recording
FundMonitors.com
04 August 2025
To help you get a better understanding of the www.fundmonitors.com database, watch this webinar recording to help you learn to navigate the database and get the most out of its powerful fund analytics.
The webinar covered the following:
Accessing the site
Selecting and comparing funds
Peer group analysis
Building and managing a watchlist
Creating a portfolio
FACTORS Research
If you like to see just 1 aspect of the webinar feel free to jump to the relevant timestamp:
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By: FundMonitors.com
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"I've been subscribing to AFM for over two years and love it. The ability to compare funds, do in-depth research and gain data-driven insights into performance metrics and performance rankings in a highly visual way is second to none. Highly recommended."
~ James Waggett,
Managing Director of Waggett Wealth Advice Ltd