When the Map Changes Mid-Journey

Alphinity Investment Management 

April 2026

4-minute read

The macro has taken over. Here's how we're navigating it

Markets don't wait for certainty. They reprice the expectation.

After a strong run into February 2026, led by Materials and Banks, two of the most economically sensitive corners of the Australian market, the landscape has shifted quickly. The Middle East conflict has moved markets from micro to macro almost overnight, raising a familiar and uncomfortable question: what happens to growth from here?

The short answer is that it likely slows; certainly, from what expectations were only a few months ago. The longer answer depends heavily on one man, and as anyone watching closely will attest, predicting Trump in the space of a single news cycle is ambitious, never mind longer term.

The Australian backdrop is more complicated than most

Australia entered this period with a problem most markets didn't have to the same extent: a persistent lift in underlying inflation that had already forced the RBA's hand. Two rate rises into a new cycle, and central bank credibility was already being tested. Consumer confidence had begun to wobble, and spending was pulling back even before the uncertainty and inflation caused by the war was a risk.

Now layer on a material rise in petrol prices, supply-side shocks across energy and key commodities, and growing uncertainty about where this end -- and you have a consumer likely under genuine pressure.

The RBA finds itself in a difficult position. Raise rates further to fight inflation and you risk choking an already potentially slowing economy. Hold and you risk losing the inflation fight altogether. Neither is comfortable. This is the definition of a stagflationary environment, and the risks are starker in Australia than in many developed markets that this takes hold. The Federal Government's budget will also play a role in dictating how much the interest rate lever will need to be pulled.

We don't want to overstate the negatives -- there is still momentum in parts of the economy, companies are on average conservatively positioned, and household balance sheets retain meaningful buffers. But slower growth is now more likely, and the risk distribution has skewed to the downside. The chance of a policy misstep has increased.

What we're watching

Earnings. Full stop.

Australia had a genuinely strong six months of earnings upgrades heading into this period. That momentum is now at risk. We're watching closely for where cost pressures and supply chain disruptions begin to feed through, particularly across the large-cap miners and banks, which have driven the bulk of recent earnings momentum.

The good news: market valuations have reset to more reasonable territory (ASX200 & ASX300 now at 17.5x PE forward vs recent highs of 20x). That cushion matters. But it disappears quickly if earnings downgrades follow. We're not there yet, but we're watching.

How the portfolio is positioned

With genuine uncertainty elevated, this is not the environment for bold, concentrated bets. Instead, we've been making deliberate, measured tilts -- reducing exposure to emerging risks and adding to areas with more resilient earnings

• • We've taken profits in global and domestic cyclicals -- metals and mining, discretionary, and banks -- where earnings are most exposed to an economic slowdown. In their place, we've added to defensive earnings streams: Staples (Woolworths), Telecommunications (Superloop, Telstra), and Insurance (Insurance Australia Group, Medibank).

• On Energy, we remain broadly neutral but with a slight tilt toward spot-price and refiner exposure (Woodside and Ampol). Even if the conflict resolves quickly, structural damage to supply infrastructure suggests oil prices are unlikely to return to recent lows anytime soon.

• We retain a modest overweight to Metals and Mining, but well below recent highs and highly selective in where we're positioned. Where commodity deficits have genuinely widened -- aluminium being a clear example, with the supply gap widening materially since January -- we see better-supported prices and potential for more earnings upgrades (Newmont, Rio Tinto, BHP, Alcoa).

• REITs remain underweight, with a preference for Charter Hall within the sector. Its high-quality portfolio and strong balance sheet provide relative insulation in a higher-for-longer rate environment relative to the broader REIT sector.

• Our Technology exposure, while modest, stays at the defensive end of the spectrum -- businesses with durable, recurring earnings streams (Technology One and Life360).

• The domestic consumer remains at risk with demand growth clearly slowing. Both Business and Consumer confidence slumped during March'26 to levels last seen during the Covid pandemic. We're underweight the Consumer overall -- more so in Discretionary, offset somewhat by an overweight in the more defensive Staples (Woolworths).

• We've moved to small underweight on Banks, shifting exposure a bit toward Insurance -- a less beta-sensitive part of the sector. Bank valuations look stretched; ex-CBA the picture improves, but recent market moves make even a relative value argument difficult to sustain.

The bottom line

This is an autumn for patience. The macro uncertainty is real, and we won't pretend otherwise. But uncertainty is not the same as paralysis -- it's an invitation to think carefully about where earnings are genuinely supported and where they are not.

We are tilting. Slowly, purposefully. And we will keep tilting in the direction the evidence points.
As always, we'll let the earnings do the talking.

Funds operated by this manager:

Alphinity Australian Share Fund , Alphinity Concentrated Australian Share Fund , Alphinity Sustainable Share Fund , Alphinity Global Equity Fund , Alphinity Global Sustainable Equity Fund

This material has been prepared by Alphinity Investment Management ABN 12 140 833 709 AFSL 356 895 (Alphinity). It is general information only and is not intended to provide you with financial advice or take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. To the extent permitted by law, no liability is accepted for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. Any projections are based on assumptions which we believe are reasonable but are subject to change and should not be relied upon. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Neither any particular rate of return nor capital invested are guaranteed.

10k Words

Equitable Investors

April 2026

(2-minute read)

Funds operated by this manager:

Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund

Disclaimer

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Fund returns are quoted net of all fees, expenses and accrued performance fees. Delivery of this report to a recipient should not be relied on as a representation that there has been no change since the preparation date in the affairs or financial condition of the Fund or the Trustee; or that the information contained in this report remains accurate or complete at any time after the preparation date. Equitable Investors Pty Ltd (EI) does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this report. To the extent permitted by law, EI disclaims all liability that may otherwise arise due to any information in this report being inaccurate or information being omitted. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation and needs of potential investors. Before making a decision to invest in the Fund the recipient should obtain professional advice. This report does not purport to contain all the information that the recipient may require to evaluate a possible investment in the Fund. The recipient should conduct their own independent analysis of the Fund and refer to the current Information Memorandum, which is available from EI.

Expert Analysis of the RBA's May 5 Rate Decision

FundMonitors.com

May 2026

Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, spoke with Nicholas Chaplin, Director and Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management, and Renny Ellis, Director & Head of Portfolio Management at Arculus Funds Management.

The discussion examines the RBA's decision to raise rates to 4.35%, with a focus on inflation pressures, the impact of energy costs, recession risks, and the broader implications for households, markets, and the Australian economy.

Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Benjamin Harrison, Chief Investment Officer at Altor Capital. 

In this conversation, Ben shared how the Altor AltFi Income Fund has delivered consistent performance over seven years, combining private credit investments with unique equity kickers. He also discussed their hands-on approach, focus on mid-market corporates, and where he sees the greatest opportunities for growth-making this a valuable watch for investors interested in private credit.

Expert analysis on what the RBA will do next Tuesday, May 5

FundMonitors.com

May 2026

Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Nicholas Chaplin, Director and Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management, and Renny Ellis, Director & Head of Portfolio Management at Arculus Funds Management.

The discussion centres on Australia's latest inflation figures and whether the RBA should hold rates steady ahead of the federal budget. Nick and Renny broadly agree the central bank should wait for more data, while weighing the risks that temporary inflation pressures from energy and geopolitical uncertainty could become more persistent.

Airlie Small Companies Fund Quarterly Update

Airlie Funds Management

January 2026

(Viewing time: 15 mins)

Funds operated by this manager:

Airlie Australian Share Fund , Airlie Small Companies Fund

Important Information: 

This material has been delivered to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946 AFS Licence No. 304 301 trading as Airlie Funds Management ('Airlie') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation.  This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and Target Market Determination ('TMD') and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making a decision about whether to acquire, or continue to hold, the relevant financial product. A copy of the relevant PDS and TMD relating to an Airlie financial product or service may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4760 or by visiting www.airliefundsmanagement.com.au.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any financial product or service, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to implement its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of an Airlie financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements.

This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. Airlie makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of Airlie. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. No representation or warranty is made with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this material. Airlie will not be responsible or liable for any losses arising from your use or reliance upon any part of the information contained in this material.

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Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Simone Haslinger, Chief Executive Officer at East Coast Capital Management. Simone discussed the fund's positive March quarter performance, the impact of volatility across energy and commodity markets, and how East Coast Capital's systematic trend-following approach seeks to capture opportunities during periods of market regime change.

Funds operated by this manager: ECCM Systematic Trend Fund

Expert Analysis of the RBA's March 17 Rate Decision

FundMonitors.com

March 2026

Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, spoke with Nicholas Chaplin, Director and Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management, and Renny Ellis, Director & Head of Portfolio Management at Arculus Funds Management, about the RBA's decision to raise interest rates by 0.25% in March. Both described the move as premature, noting the narrow 5-4 board vote reflected significant internal disagreement. They argued that last month's rate rise had yet to flow through to the economy, and that the board was relying on last year's inflation numbers prior to the release of the February figure due next week. In a nutshell, the decision to raise rates in March, rather than wait 6 weeks until the meeting scheduled for May 4th and 5th, was premature. The discussion also considered the role of rising oil prices and geopolitical developments, with both suggesting the RBA may have acted too quickly given the uncertain economic outlook.

Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with George Bory, Chief Investment Strategist at Allspring Global Investments. 

They discussed Allspring's public-markets fixed-income approach, focusing on risk-aware portfolio management, steady income above inflation, and global diversification, before turning to how geopolitical tensions, oil prices, inflation, and US politics may shape bond markets and investment positioning.

Key topics by timestamp:

• 0:07 - 5:13 Allspring's fixed income strategy, risk-aware bond investing, and global public markets approach

• 5:19 - 9:30 Iran conflict, oil prices, inflation risks, and central bank implications

• 9:32 - 16:20 US politics, energy prices, and the outlook for bond markets and portfolio positioning

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They discussed the sharp market volatility during the latest reporting season, driven by elevated expectations around AI, shifting investor sentiment, and significant valuation resets across industrial stocks. The conversation also explored how changing money flows, speculation, and indexing influenced portfolio management and highlighted the importance of diversification in an increasingly volatile investment environment.

How to get the most from Fundmonitors 

Webinar Recording

FundMonitors.com

04 August 2025

To help you get a better understanding of the www.fundmonitors.com database, watch this webinar recording to help you learn to navigate the database and get the most out of its powerful fund analytics. 

The webinar covered the following:

• Accessing the site
• Selecting and comparing funds
• Peer group analysis
• Building and managing a watchlist
• Creating a portfolio
• FACTORS Research

If you like to see just 1 aspect of the webinar feel free to jump to the relevant timestamp:

Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Simone Haslinger, Chief Executive Officer at East Coast Capital Management.

They discuss ECCM's systematic global trend-following strategy, recent strong performance driven by broad trends across commodities, currencies, and equity markets, and how disciplined risk management supports consistent results. The interview also highlights the importance of diversification and the role trend-following strategies can play in strengthening portfolios amid changing market conditions.

Funds operated by this manager: ECCM Systematic Trend Fund