Hindsight is so easy!
I can't imagine there is anything left to say about Donald Trump's stunning victory last Tuesday that hasn't been said or written elsewhere, but for better or for worse, here's a few more.
It is probably fair to say that the only people who were truly surprised were either those outside the USA, or Democrats within it. And possibly a few Republicans as well, although they might not choose to be reminded of it.
There will no doubt be books written, lectures given, and certainly debates held for a long time to come as to what, depending on one's opinion, went right or wrong. What is most surprising however is the "new" Donald Trump - gracious, polite and reasonable, all characteristics that would have been difficult to ascribe to him based on his electioneering over the past 18 months or so.
Only time will tell whether this is a temporary reprieve, or if Trump in election mode was just a carefully devised plan to gain attention from the so-called "forgotten and downtrodden" and in so doing polarise the electorate. Irrespective of the answer, he is now the President-Elect, and his Party has a seemingly iron grip on government at all levels for the next four years. (Malcolm, how would you like that?)
Over the past few weeks Hedge Clippings has received regular feedback to our Trump/Clinton election comments from a U.S. based subscriber who was adamant that those outside the US, plus those on the West and East coast, simply did not understand reality. Needless to say soon after the result was known we received an email from him titled: Was I Right?
Given that he was 100% spot on, it is worth taking notice of his opinion that "contrary to what the Australian media would like you to believe and have been toting, Donald Trump may make a good President". Assuming he will or can curb the excessive rhetoric, maybe he will. Our 100% correct subscriber went on to add that it will be interesting to watch Trump and Putin as he feels there will be a big change in the relationship between Russia and the USA.
Certainly equity markets, which had previously been nervously awaiting the outcome, seem to think the outcome is positive, even if it just serves to remove the uncertainty of the unknown. Trump's massive infrastructure spending promise ($1,000 billion over 10 years) could well kick the economy along, and provide some much needed inflation to boot. If only it were all so simple.
Locally there's market uncertainty however, as Trump will govern for America first, and the rest of the World, and Australia second. The potential for trade, or currency wars, would seem to heightened.
Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund returned -1.76% in October. The Fund is up 33.63% for the latest 24-months.
Optimal Australia Absolute Trust rose 0.35% in October 2016, outperforming the ASX 200 Total Return Index, which returned -2.15%, by 2.50%.
Pengana Global Small Companies Fund returned -1.20% in October 2016, outperforming the MSCI AC World SMID Cap Index which returned -2.4%, by 1.2%.
Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund returned -1.85% in October to take the annualised return since inception to 11.29% p.a.
Finally, news has just arrived that one of our favourites from "and now for something completely different", Leonard Cohen has died aged 82. Hedge Clippings is old enough to remember seeing him at the Isle of Wight in 1969. Here's a link to a live version (and explanation) of his great hit Chelsea Hotel.
And on that sad note, have a great weekend.
Regards,
Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS
Connect with me on LinkedIn Twitter Facebook
|
Registration to AFM is free and provides general information and performance data on Absolute Return, Hedge Funds, and Alternative Investments. |
Fund Managers and paid Subscribers have access to details on Individual Managers and Funds, with historical results, key performance indicators, latest news and performance reports. |
Prism Select provides self-directed investors and their advisors with factual information, performance data and opportunity to apply for funds online using OLIVIA123 . |
Tune into Sky Business on Foxtel every week at the new time of10:45 am on Friday's for AFM's weekly comment. |
Australian Fund Monitors are helping to raise awareness to support research into prevention and cure for cerebral palsy. For more information visit www.cpresearch.org.au or contact me by email.
