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10k Words Equitable Investors April 2026 (2-minute read) We couldn't help but look at geopolitical risk again - with the spike in a longer historical context than shown last month. Fertiliser prices are spiking in the wake of the Middle East situation. Yet the "breakeven" inflation rate based on Australian 10-year bonds remains at a relatively normal level, implying short term shocks are expected to have modest long-term ramifications. Our sentiment scores show ASX large cap sentiment rebounding but small caps trailing. The US experience has shown a large cap rebound of rare magnitude in recent days. Meanwhile, we talk about index concentration in the stock market but take a look at recent concentration in the world of venture capital. We divert to the recently-depressed valuation metrics for the tech sector. Then on to redemptions at leading private credit house Blue Owl Capital. Finally, energy consumption and income go hand-in-hand and we take a look at Australia's national debt stack. Geopolitical Risk Index relative performance to VIX (US volatility) over 20 years
Source: Caldara and Iacoviello, Koyfin Fertiliser price spikes and war
Source: Bloomberg Aus 10-year bond yield-derived breakeven inflation rate: 2014 to Apr 2026
ASX sentiment score (yield spread + VIX)
Source: St Louis Fed, Equitable Investors ASX small cap sentiment score
Source: Koyfin S&P 500 rallying 9.8% in 10-days - the 99.7th percentile of all 10 day returns
Source: 3Fourteen Research ~75% of all VC funds raised by just five firms & invested in five companies
Source: Pitchbook NVCA Venture Monitor, as of March 31, 2026 US tech sector PEG ratio (historical earnings growth)
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Average EV/Revenue multiple (next 12 months revenue forecast) for Software industry
Source: Apollo, Illiquid Insights Blue Owl quarterly redemption requests as a % of shares outstanding
Source: Global Markets Investor US leveraged loan defaults: trailing 12-month count
Electricity & Income (per capita)
Source: EIEA, World Bank, @JoeNakamato National gross debt of Australia
Source: IFM Investors Funds operated by this manager: Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Disclaimer Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Fund returns are quoted net of all fees, expenses and accrued performance fees. Delivery of this report to a recipient should not be relied on as a representation that there has been no change since the preparation date in the affairs or financial condition of the Fund or the Trustee; or that the information contained in this report remains accurate or complete at any time after the preparation date. Equitable Investors Pty Ltd (EI) does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this report. To the extent permitted by law, EI disclaims all liability that may otherwise arise due to any information in this report being inaccurate or information being omitted. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation and needs of potential investors. Before making a decision to invest in the Fund the recipient should obtain professional advice. This report does not purport to contain all the information that the recipient may require to evaluate a possible investment in the Fund. The recipient should conduct their own independent analysis of the Fund and refer to the current Information Memorandum, which is available from EI. |
