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10k Words Equitable Investors March 2026 (2-minute read) Geopolitical risk spikes. After a long period of significant divergence, long term bond yields and forecast earnings yields have reunited. Worth considering alongside the relative performance of "Growth" v "Value". Long-term inflation expectations seem to have stabilised at higher levels than was the case pre-COVID - possibly baking in higher volatility in inflation. Military action swung equity investors straying to emerging markets back to the US. That US market may be concentrated but its a lot less concentrated than the ASX - and in the current period of turbulence concentration has performed very differently relative to equal-weight portfolios in the two countries. There does seem to be more interest in active investing currently. Finally, we can't escape without a chart on the decline of listed SaaS valuations - but in the context of a convergence with unlisted AI valuations. Geopolitical Risk Index relative performance to VIX (US volatility) over 1 year
Source: Caldara and Iacoviello, Koyfin US 10-year bond yield v S&P 500 forward earnings yield
Source: Yardeni Growth relative to Value (iShares Russell 1000 Growth / iShares Russell 1000 Value)
Source: Koyfin US 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate - relatively stable for past three years
Source: Koyfin Australian 10-year Breakeven Inflation Rate
Source: Equitable Investors, RBA CPI (Australia) - standard deviation of quarter-on-quarter change (rolling 30 quarters)
Source: Equitable Investors, ABS Global yield spreads matrix
Source: Koyfin S&P 500 relative to FTSE Emerging Index - reversal post Iran attack
Source: Bloomberg Equities concentration - top 10 holdings' dominance of Aus and US major benchmarks (using iShares ETF proxies)
Source: Equitable Investors, Koyfin S&P/ASX 200 - Free-float weighted (AS51) v equal-weighted indices (XEW)
Source: Equitable Investors, Iress, Koyfin S&P 500 ETFs - Free-float weighted (IVW) v equal-weighted (RSP)
Source: Equitable Investors, Koyfin The number of active ETFs launched each year in the US
Source: Morningstar Public SaaS valuations have converged with AI-led software
Source: Arcadia Capital via Archtis Funds operated by this manager: Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Disclaimer Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Fund returns are quoted net of all fees, expenses and accrued performance fees. Delivery of this report to a recipient should not be relied on as a representation that there has been no change since the preparation date in the affairs or financial condition of the Fund or the Trustee; or that the information contained in this report remains accurate or complete at any time after the preparation date. Equitable Investors Pty Ltd (EI) does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this report. To the extent permitted by law, EI disclaims all liability that may otherwise arise due to any information in this report being inaccurate or information being omitted. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation and needs of potential investors. Before making a decision to invest in the Fund the recipient should obtain professional advice. This report does not purport to contain all the information that the recipient may require to evaluate a possible investment in the Fund. The recipient should conduct their own independent analysis of the Fund and refer to the current Information Memorandum, which is available from EI. |
