How investors can still ride the gold surge

Pendal

February 2026

(5 minutes read time)

GOLD and silver prices have been riding a rollercoaster since the start of the year, but Pendal portfolio manager Brenton Saunders -- who has worked as a geologist -- argues there are still plenty of opportunities in midcap equities exposed to these metals.

Total gold demand in 2025, including over-the-counter sales, exceeded 5,000 tonnes for the first time, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).

Last year, the safe-haven metal set 53 new all-time price highs which yielded an "unprecedented value" of US$555 billion - a 45 per cent year over year increase, WGC data shows.

The reason: heightened investment activity driven by safe-haven and diversification moves that culminated in the second strongest year on record for exchange traded fund-inflows and elevated central bank buying.

Although central bank purchases slowed from their recent pace, they hit the upper end of the WGC's forecast, totalling 863 tonnes for the year. Bar and coin buying also reached a 12-year high.

This led to the gold price marking its highest annual average at US$3,431 an ounce - a 44% spike year over year.

"Central banks have been buying it hand over fist; retail investors have been buying it hand over fist, the dollar has been weakening, and geopolitics have been pretty elevated," explains Saunders, who manages Pendal's MidCap Fund.

"If you go back to the late 90s/early 2000s central banks were all selling gold. It was an old asset. Nobody needed it anymore. It was defunct," explains Saunders.  

"Most of the OECD countries sold most of their gold reserves. The US was probably the only one that didn't.

"But now you've seen a very broad-based and especially emerging market purchase of gold. So it's re-legitimised gold in a major way in terms of its role as a reserve asset the world over."

Silver, meanwhile, is also a beneficiary of the market ructions, hitting its highest point on record in late January when it rose above US$120 an ounce.  

An additional key driver of the recent price surge in gold's poorer cousin is the high demand for silver as an industrial metal input for solar panels.

"We now use a lot of it, especially in solar panels," says Saunders. "That's probably the biggest industrial use for silver now, but it's always been a second-tier reserve currency investment product that has done the rounds.

"So it's move more recently is obviously being helped by the fact that solar manufacturing is still elevated and now we've seen some investment demand come to the fore."

But while gold and silver prices have run hard, this hasn't necessarily been reflected in the share prices of gold and silver stocks.

'Scepticism gap'

Saunders points to the 'scepticism gap' between the price of the physical metals versus the equities exposed to them.

"Because the move in the gold price has been so rapid the market has been highly sceptical of pricing in that scenario because they're constantly questioning what will happen if the gold price comes back.

"So the equities, not just gold equities but especially in gold, have been quite reticent to reflect in their share prices the full move in the gold price."

However, Saunders argues that the price could drop by US$1,000 and still be at a "bonanza level", meaning gold-exposed companies "could weather quite a big correction in the gold price without much impact to the value of the company's operational considerations".

A "bonanza-level" gold price affords operations more flexibility, allowing them to mine areas that historically were not economic to consider. This increases reserves and profitability.

"That is the one thing that gives me a bit of comfort, and I think investors ultimately a bit of comfort," says Saunders.

"If I look at consensus earnings for gold companies, they're still reflecting a significantly lower gold price than prevails today.

"So that should mean if the gold price stays at the current level, we'll continue to see earnings upgrades and that normally underpins share prices.

"Those are the things that make me hopeful that it should still be a fairly constructive sector from an investment perspective."

Funds operated by this manager:

Pendal MicroCap Opportunities Fund , Pendal Sustainable Australian Fixed Interest Fund - Class R , Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund , Pendal Horizon Sustainable Australian Share Fund , Regnan Credit Impact Trust Fund , Pendal Sustainable Australian Share Fund , Pendal Multi-Asset Target Return Fund , Barrow Hanley Concentrated Global Share Fund , Pendal Active Balanced Fund , Pendal Active Conservative Fund , Pendal Australian Equity Fund , Pendal Australian Long/Short Fund , Pendal Australian Share Fund , Pendal Dynamic Income Fund - Class R , Pendal Fixed Interest Fund , Pendal Global Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund - Wholesale Class , Pendal Global Property Securities Fund , Pendal Government Bond Fund , Pendal Imputation Fund , Pendal MidCap Fund , Pendal Monthly Income Plus Fund , Pendal Property Investment Fund , Pendal Short Term Income Securities Fund , Pendal Smaller Companies Fund

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