17 Oct 2025 - Quarterly State of Trend report - Q3 2025

In this update, we present the quarterly State of Trend report for Q3, 2025. 

Our report covers the performance of Trend Following systems compared with traditional investments such as the S&P/ASX 200 Total Return index, and the Australia "60/40" portfolio. Trend Following provides exposure to a diverse pool of underlying instruments, and implements trading strategies systematically and without emotional biases.

Tariff turmoil impacts global markets

In Q3 2025, markets remained turbulent as inflation pressures, shifting rate expectations and ongoing geopolitical friction shaped sentiment. Trend following systems have rebounded from drawdown, benefitting from sustained moves in precious metals, cattle, and technology-linked equity indices, significantly outperforming the ASX200 and 60/40 portfolio. 

Key market movements in Q3 2025

• Shifting inflation expectations, ongoing tariff surprises and persistent geopolitical flashpoints dominated markets through Q3

• • Equity markets continued to grind higher, despite periodic risk-off episodes around policy and global security tensions. The strongest quarterly equity index returns were delivered by technology-led markets such as the Taiwan, South Korea, China, and Japan
  • Long-end fixed income markets reflected the increased prospect of future rate cuts, but short-term rates remain sticky, suggesting some stress in credit markets
  • Commodities were the key driver of market dispersion this quarter. Precious metals surged, with Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium among the best performing instruments. Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle continued their strong upward trends

• After a challenging Q2 marked by sharp, policy-driven reversals, trend-following systems staged a strong rebound in Q3. By harnessing breakouts across a wide pool of liquid global markets, these strategies delivered meaningful outperformance this quarter versus traditional asset classes, reinforcing the diversification benefits of systematic trend following

Featured chart - Platinum

• Although the rally in Gold and Silver has gained headlines amid a weaker USD and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, less well known is Platinum's strong acceleration through Q3
• Additional factors supporting the price include:

• • Continued strong industrial demand;
  • Ongoing production challenges, particularly in South Africa, where power disruptions and operational issues have constrained output; and
  • Persistent supply deficits and shrinking stockpiles

• Trend following across a broad range of global assets provides investors with access to powerful trends they might not otherwise hold in a traditional portfolio

See the full report at our website.