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10k Words Equitable Investors September 2025 Record volatility amid an ASX reporting season delivering another year of flat-to-negative growth. Australian GDP in the June quarter compared well with peers but on a per capita basis things have been going backwards since Q4 2022. Things have been going more backwards for the Alcohol & Tobacco space (and related ASX listings). Back on equities, large cap and momentum were leading factors in the US over the past 12 months (the AI theme having a bit to do with that) but in Australia it is small caps out in front. US smalls - and also bonds - remain in lengthy drawdown periods. Looking more broadly, delinquencies in the US office CMBS sector have been on the rise, while a large portion of private equity buy-out holdings are in breach of leverage caps. Finally, take a look at the price of diamonds falling away. September 2025 Edition
ASX reporting season featured record result-day share price volatility 
Source: Wilsons Three years of flat-to-negative earnings growth in Australia projected to end in FY2026 
Source: Wilsons Advisory Australian gross operating profits: mining industry v the rest 
Source: IFM Investors, ABS June 2025 quarter GDP growth - quarterly change annualised 
Source: Macrobond, AMP Real & real per capita growth in GDP 
Source: IFM Investors Australian household spending - alcohol & tobacco has been in decline for ~24 months 
Source: Evans & Partners Performance of ASX-listed alcohol stocks 
Source: Koyfin, Equitable Investors US factor ETF performance / S&P 500 ETF performance over past 12 months 
Source: Koyfin ETFs tell a bit of a different story on the ASX over the past 12 months 
Source: Equitable Investors AI "Picks & Shovels" Equal Weight Index - rebalanced monthly 
Source: Bespoke Number of says since Russell 2000 (US small cap index) last surpassed its prior high (drawdown) 
Source: Charles Schwab Number of months since Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index last surpassed its prior high (drawdown) 
Source: Creative Planning, @CharlieBilello US Office CMBS delinquency rate (%) 
Source: Trepp, The Kobeissi Letter % of private equity buyout holdings in breach of leverage caps 
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg via Advisor Perspectives Diamond prices in decline 
Source: IDEX Funds operated by this manager: Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Disclaimer Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Fund returns are quoted net of all fees, expenses and accrued performance fees. Delivery of this report to a recipient should not be relied on as a representation that there has been no change since the preparation date in the affairs or financial condition of the Fund or the Trustee; or that the information contained in this report remains accurate or complete at any time after the preparation date. Equitable Investors Pty Ltd (EI) does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this report. To the extent permitted by law, EI disclaims all liability that may otherwise arise due to any information in this report being inaccurate or information being omitted. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation and needs of potential investors. Before making a decision to invest in the Fund the recipient should obtain professional advice. This report does not purport to contain all the information that the recipient may require to evaluate a possible investment in the Fund. The recipient should conduct their own independent analysis of the Fund and refer to the current Information Memorandum, which is available from EI. |
