13 Jun 2025 - Hedge Clippings | 13 June 2025

Hedge Clippings | 13 June 2025

Following the overnight attack on Iran's nuclear facilities by Israel, the world has become a more dangerous place, although there are those who will claim that in the longer run, for Iran not to have a nuclear capacity (energy or arms) will make it safer. Unfortunately, it's going to go one way or the other, so we'll never know which outcome is correct.

In the meantime, it certainly feels more dangerous, and even the US is shying away from becoming actively involved in the air or on the ground at this stage. Hopefully, that lessens the chances of escalation. Meanwhile, the immediate effect on financial markets was an inevitable after-market fall in US stock futures, and an almost 10% spike in crude oil prices, and a smaller increase in gold, now not far off US$3,500 per ounce.

Possibly of greater risk to US markets is the potential for the demonstrations against Trump's deportation orders and subsequent deployment of the National Guard and the Marines to escalate over the weekend, and spread to other states and cities. By all accounts, Trump is itching for a showdown at home, while avoiding one overseas.

Whether either or both of the above crises is sufficient to scupper Albo's chances of a meeting with Trump to discuss either tariffs, or the US review of AUKUS on the sidelines of the G7 leaders' meeting in Canada remains to be seen. The Australian government's sanctioning of two right-wing members of Israel's cabinet against the wishes of the US won't have helped his chances of success.

Meanwhile, looking at May's fund performance (which we accept is looking in the rear-view mirror) shows a positive month, particularly by the various equity peer groups.

While the ASX200 Total Return was up 4.2% for the month, and the S&P500 up 6.29% (taking their 12 month returns to 13.36% and 13.52% respectively), this is not surprising, but there were 20 or more funds with double-digit returns for the month, and close to 60% of equity based funds out performed the ASX200, while 94% of all funds produced positive returns for the month, and 91% over the past 12 months.

A selection can be found below.

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