|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 09 May 2025 Although last week's Hedge Clippings described the election campaign as boring, disappointing and uninspiring, the outcomes and after-effects have been anything but. Anthony Albanese's victory was decisive and well deserved, even if he was ably assisted by Peter Dutton and Adam Bandt, who each contributed to Albo's success, and their own eventual demise. To what extent Dutton was supported (probably the wrong term) by the Liberal party hierarchy, or the executive and his inner circle, we'll no doubt have to wait to find out when the inevitable post-mortem is held or books are written. Treasurer Jim Chalmers summed it up on election night when he said he "couldn't believe his luck" when his opposite number announced they would vote against his across-the-board tax cuts, even though in actual dollar terms it amounts to $268 in 2026-27, and $536 in 2027-28. That's enough for one cup of coffee a week next year, and two cups the year after. We can't wait! Where the Libs go from here is anyone's guess, but if they continue to listen to the right wing of the party (or Gina Rinehart, who'd like them to be more like Trump), they're going to remain where they are, or worse, for the foreseeable future. Which, sadly, is not good for democracy. As it is, we have to hope that success will not go to Albo's and the loony left's head, and that ideas such as taxing unrealised capital gains won't spread beyond super balances above $3 million. Our guess, however, is that they will. Bottom line, congratulations to Albanese. He's only 62, so short of another Hawke/Keating type deal, Jim Chalmers will have to wait at least three years, and possibly six. So back to the real world, where they probably couldn't give a fig to Australian's antics of the past few weeks. As pointed out by PinPoint Economics' latest report (and chart pack), tariffs and trade wars are the focus of economic and political debate at present. To quote PinPoint's Executive Summary, the parameters shift on an almost daily basis, such that there's a need to cut through to the underlying fundamentals and work out what to watch.
However, the most pertinent aspect is PinPoint's view that the parameters shift on an almost daily basis. Trump's style is to come out all guns blazing in an attempt to get the upper hand - or to achieve maximum exposure, or both. What the final outcome will be once he's chopped and changed his terms on a country-by-country basis remains to be seen. First cab off the rank is the UK - (The Donald's obviously keen to make sure his invitation to Buckingham Palace is still secure), where he's kept a 10% tariff in place in spite of the US enjoying a trade surplus (like Australia) with the UK. He's also hinted that the 145% tariffs on China will be watered down, and that the White House is in talks with dozens of other countries. Trump has been less successful buying Canada and Greenland (so far), nor has he stopped the war in Ukraine or Palestine. Everything remains uncertain, making Australia a relative oasis of calm! News & Insights 10k Words | Equitable Investors Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management April 2025 Performance News Seed Funds Management Hybrid Income Fund Bennelong Australian Equities Fund Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
