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Hedge Clippings | 02 May 2025 The choice of descriptions of the 2025 election campaign are numerous, but we would suggest all are synonyms of one of the following: boring, disappointing, uninspiring. In other words lacking any real vision for the future - other than that of the individuals contesting the various seats. Primary amongst the culprits are Albanese and Dutton. Albo at best has been uninspiring during his three years in the top office, and until the start of the year when he seemed to develop some enthusiasm for the task ahead, looked like he was gone for all money. Then along came Peter Dutton, who having had nearly three years to prepare for the election, has done nearly everything he could to make Albo re-electable - or rather the least worst option in a two-horse race. Maybe he was relying on Albo to trip up (which he almost did when falling off the stage), or merely bore the electorate into ensuring he became a one term PM. The only thing to be said for Albo is he went full term - unlike his predecessors Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard and then Kevin again. For example: For some reason Dutton (or the faceless men and women of the Liberal party hierarchy) thought that going from being a zero operator of nuclear power stations - following a dirty backroom deal in the Senate engineered by the Greens in 1998 - to having seven major nuclear stations in one swoop, would be an easy sell. It might have been to the party faithful, but where was the background media and PR campaign promoting small-scale modular reactors (SSMR's)? In its place, the government was able to mount (yet another) scare campaign, in spite of 32 countries around the world operating no less than 440 nuclear reactors, with France relying on nuclear for 70% of its power generation, and Australia signing up for nuclear powered submarines. Given Dutton's timeframe for Australia to "go nuclear" is 10 to 15 years (assuming no delays), surely a smarter move would be to hasten slowly, while getting the majority of the electorate onside, and exploring the latest technology provided by SSMR's? Meanwhile, Australia accounts for around 30% of the world's supply of uranium, which is currently selling for just over US$50 per pound. But we don't/won't use it. Go figure? Dutton has allowed himself to play catch-up with an irresponsible spendathon, and has ended up matching dollar for dollar the Labour Party's lavish vote-grabbing hand-outs, while opposing tax cuts for all. As we've noted before, voters are driven by their back pockets. Albanese and Chalmers have cynically targeted nearly every self-interested demographic group in the country, with the economic equivalent of fairy bread at a four-year-old's birthday party - looks attractive, the punters will lap it up, but it won't do them any good after the initial sugar hit. Both parties have committed to increased budget deficits, and no-one is talking about structural changes to the budget or the taxation system. Except the Labour party, who want to introduce a tax on unrealised capital gains... but haven't really been called out on it. Go figure again! Meanwhile Dutton hasn't been helped by a typical scare campaign, but he's left himself open to that. So the polls - and the media - are writing the opposition off. Maybe there's an outside chance of an upset given the peculiarities of Australia's voting system and state-based biases, but we doubt it. The good news is that the election will be over next week. The bad news is that whoever wins will be there for another three years! Back to interest rates: Inflation is now in the RBA's mid range target at 2.4%, (for the second quarter in a row) or 2.9% if you take their preferred trimmed mean measure. Capital city weighted mean was a tad higher at 3.0%, with Brisbane spoiling the party thanks to the end of $1,000 electricity handouts. On receipt of the numbers, Jim Chalmers was as keen as usual not to be pressuring the RBA, whilst doing precisely that, but it is going to be difficult for the RBA to keep rates on hold at 4.1% following their next meeting on the 20th of May. News & Insights Manager Insights | East Coast Capital Management The Future of Transport: Innovations transforming how we move | Magellan Asset Management First Do No Harm | Airlie Funds Management March 2025 Performance News TAMIM Fund: Global High Conviction Unit Class Insync Global Capital Aware Fund DAFM Digital Income Fund (Digital Income Class) |
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