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Yesterday's job numbers, while statistically appalling, shouldn't have been too surprising. Even the headline unemployment rate of 7.1% masks the real situation which is revealed when examining the details around reduced hours, and the participation rate.
And while everyone's focussed on the unemployment rate, or the participation rate, last week's horror "R" word (recession) is now accepted as the inevitable consequence of COVID rather than the "recession we had to have", while the "D" word (deficit) is pushed even further back into short memories. But the "D" word is going to last much, much longer than the "R" word.
Put simply, the headline rate doubles (or possibly triples) when taking into account the large proportion of those who have lost their jobs, are underemployed, and who are not actively out there looking for work when there's none, or very little to be found.
Employers who have let their employees go, or reduced their hours, will hardly be taking on new staff before re-hiring, or increasing the hours of the ones they already know - and who in turn already "know" the job. Whether on Job Seeker or Job Keeper, these will be "first in, best dressed" when the wheels of the economy finally, but only gradually, start turning again.
Gradually - or possibly erratically - is the key, and as such is a key problem for the government as it faces the halfway mark in the emergency life support it introduced at the start of the lock down. At that stage many - both employers and employees - felt somewhat cushioned from the full economic effects of COVID thanks to the range of measures introduced: One-off payments to both businesses and individuals; Job Seeker (double rate) or Job Keeper; mandated commercial rent relief; and early access to superannuation.
Added to that, the banks chipped in with mortgage relief to help, although on the other side of that coin shareholders suffered via a reduction or cancellation of their dividends.
But now the horizon is clearer. As the lockdown is gradually (albeit not uniformly) eased, we can see the September end of support in sight. And while some aspects of life and business are opening up again, it's certainly not back to normal. Public transport is almost a joy to travel on; city streets are clear of dawdlers and, sadly for the retail stores, window shoppers. Restaurants are open (some at least) but underutilized as they adhere to the new rules.
And some sectors - particularly those leveraged to overseas visitors and students, such as travel, tourism and education - have a much longer term of economic pain and hibernation ahead.
Therein lies the problem for Scomo and his team: On one hand how to wean both business and employees off the welfare they're now relying on, if not used to (and don't forget there are some benefitting and enjoying it), while also maintaining or extending the support for those sectors that will still need it. At the same time, the government will be trying to use the situation as an opportunity for reform, which of course will be resisted every step of the way by those adversely affected.
Take for example today's announcement regarding the proposed changes to higher education and the cost of a degree. Some, deemed more suitable or relevant for the economy and the workforce of the future, will be reduced in cost: Agriculture and maths, down 62%; teaching, nursing, languages, down 46%; science, health, architecture, IT and engineering, down 20%.
Offsetting those reductions, law and commerce will rise by 28%, while the cost of a humanities degree will cost the same as law - but double their current rate. Of course, depending on one's media preference, the headlines and talkback chatter was all about the increases, in spite of the fact that none of the changes will affect students currently studying, or the fact that HECS exists to cover the cost if required.
Reform is not easy to sell to those on the wrong side of the change, but is necessary to adjust to a changing world.
While on the subject of change, this week we spoke with Alex Pollak, CIO of the aptly named Loftus Peak Global Disruption Fund. Alex's insight into the changing fortunes and direction of companies that specifically benefit from disruption - even if neither he, nor the companies themselves, had anticipated COVID's acceleration of disruptive trends. As he explains in this video, what COVID has done is to accelerate the social, business and economic trends that were already in place, benefitting the disrupters at the expense of traditional business models.
No one likes to be seen to be actually benefitting from the effects of COVID's disruptive damage, but his Global Disruption Fund has an impressive run rate, returning 12.67% over the six months to May 31, and 32.46% over the past year. To view the fund's full AFM Profile, click here.
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