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Hedge Clippings | Friday 17 January, 2020
Welcome back to a New Year, and depending on your level of pedantry, a new decade. We did notice a few grumbles in the media that technically we're not in the new decade yet, but as far as a simple-minded Hedge Clippings is concerned, we now write the date with a 20 in front (or behind) it, so a new decade it is.
We closed the last edition of Hedge Clippings with a summary of 2019, so it is only natural to open this year's effort with the picture ahead of us. Firstly, however, a thought for all those affected by Australia's bushfires which, for the time being at least, seem to have subsided. Although, there's a long way to go yet, not only for the remainder of this summer, but the years and decades beyond.
Much like 2019 we would expect 2020 to be dominated by geopolitics with a US election, the real Brexit, Putin and Xi all featuring heavily. Effectively, whilst we may think Australia is on the world stage, that means this year remains in the hands of four people of different persuasions, and different levels of political control domestically and globally.
Economically we wouldn't expect global interest rates to change much either way, although the US economy is showing signs of strength this may not translate into higher inflation - yet. Domestically, however, we're facing bushfire induced headwinds - both economically and politically.
From the perspective of investors and their advisors in managed funds, this year is once again going to be a challenge, met with varying levels of success by fund managers as always. 2019 was a stellar year, particularly for global equities (thanks to Donald and low interest rates) and in Australia the small to mid-cap sector. Short of a market shock, expect more of the same, and for the fund managers themselves, the same challenges.
In coming weeks once all funds have reported their December returns we will be providing data on the winners and losers from 2019. In the meantime, below is a roundup of reports received to date, and manager insights.
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