|
Hedge Clippings | Friday 20 September, 2019
Aside from anticipation surrounding the start of the RWC which kicks off this evening with Japan* taking on Russia, prior to the Wallabies taking on Fiji tomorrow, there hasn't been much of note this week...
Not much? Boris and Her Majesty the Queen (fresh from being embarrassed by former PM David Cameron's latest gaffe of actually opening up on their private conversations) might disagree, as might the Saudi's oil industry. Then again, the US Fed did drop interest rates by 25 basis points - as expected - and Australian unemployment crept up to 5.3% in August from 5.2% the month before, and 4.9% in February, increasing expectations of a further rate cut when the RBA meets in a couple of weeks. Overseas it was announced that globally negative yielding debt has now reached a peak of US$17 trillion, up from $10 trillion at the start of May.
As we have discussed before, whilst erring on the side of caution, given the current outlook for the bond market it is unlikely that the current equity bull run is likely to end. Interest rates are falling and unlikely to rise any time soon, and there's no sign of wages lead inflation or, if it comes to that, any other kind. Although kindling a fire under inflation that any increase in oil prices might create, it is much more likely to add to the potential of an economic slowdown - which would merely trigger calls for further easings in monetary policy, and fiscal stimulus.
Once again we quote and defer to commentary from Longview Economics and their excellent weekly research, who also agree that in the absence of any macro shocks, this bull market looks set to continue, despite some near term challenges for earnings growth. Added to which, they add, Trump's recent comments about a 'halfway house' type trade deal with China, plus his sacking of his most hawkish adviser, and his suggestion of a middle class tax cut, all point to a president who is increasingly focussing on re-election (and, given how he regards it as his key barometer for success, focussing on getting the stock market up).
*For those interested in tonight's team selections, here's the Japanese line up:
|
Pity the poor commentators!
|
|
