There was a varied response to Royal Commissioner Hayne's final report and recommendations - some saying it didn't go far enough by not banning vertical integration between wealth management and advice space, as well as not naming those it had referred for prosecution, while others, and in particular mortgage brokers, said it went too far.
We'd have to say Mr Hayne came down particularly harshly on mortgage brokers, who have become an entrenched part of the housing finance system over the past 20 years, particularly since Aussie Home Loans switched from claiming "We'll save ya" as a low cost mortgage originator to becoming a broker owned by the CBA. Yet he didn't recommend a ban on Vertical Integration to limit financial advisors who in reality are a sales and distribution channel of the finance and insurance product issuers such as AMP.
Overall, while looking at vertical integration, the HRC didn't really touch on many of the conflicts and circular requirements within the distribution and research processes operating in the managed fund sector. Having said that, the disclosure and transparency requirements on actual dealer group ownership he has proposed are overdue and welcome.
Overall the market told the real story as it invariably does, with the banks and AMP enjoying a significant rally, and mortgage brokers falling off a cliff.
Maybe there were greater expectations after the public shellacking the industry and specific individuals received during the public hearings. Maybe what everyone wanted was a public lynching, with crowds around the guillotine, but in reality they got that - Directors, CEOs and Chairmen, with tarnished reputations, out the door. We will wait to see the outcome of the twenty-something recommendations for prosecution of criminal conduct, but it is likely to keep the lawyers happy.
However, now politicians will have their say, and with only 10 sitting days prior to the budget, anything can happen. The government is hoping it can adhere to the motto "Festina Lente" (which as I'm sure you would know translated means "Hasten Slowly"), while the opposition can't wait for election time (Festina, Festina, Festina!).
Before we leave the Hayne Royal Commission, one of its side effects has been to slow housing credit, and with it property prices, such that the NAB's Consumer Anxiety Index is at a three year high (probably a notch or two lower than NAB's boardroom anxiety). Consumer confidence is fickle and slows consumer spending, such that the RBA's cautionary comments have lead to a revision of the future of rate rises. While there may be some borrowers hoping for a rate cut, it doesn't signify a great economic outlook.
Casting a view globally there are multiple clocks ticking away as countdowns take place. A countdown to the next stage of US govt shutdown, a countdown to US/China tariffs, a countdown to Brexit and, just so we're not left out, a countdown to the Federal election.
No wonder the Consumer Anxiety Index is high. At least NAB got that right!
