GFC turns 10, Hedge Funds Rock turns 17!
10 years on from the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the trigger that fired a bullet that was to become known as the Global Financial Crisis, and there are a number of voices warning that whilst everything in the garden may seem rosy, there are worries that markets are heading for further turbulence.
As the recent AFM Insights article from Arminius Capital explains, the US equity market has risen by 350% from its March 2009 low, but the real growth has been in debt, thanks to central banks flooding the system with credit, and allowing eager corporate and individual borrowers to take advantage of impossibly low interest rates.
Other voices are spreading the same cautionary tale. At this week's Australian AIMA (Alternative Investment Management Association) conference, a number of respected voices, including Regal's Philip King, warned of the dangers of the valuations of some growth stocks which he fears will be unsustainable in due course.
While King is warning of the danger, he is also looking forward to the opportunity - or opportunities - which will present themselves on the short side. Given the track record of Regal's various funds, which have provided twelve-month returns of between 28% and 74%, and annualised returns ranging from 13% to 35% over a long period which included the GFC, albeit with commensurate volatility, it would be well worth listening to King's voice of experience.
The AIMA conference was followed by last night's 17th annual Hedge Funds Rock event, which combined recognition of the best performing managers across eight categories, along with raising funds for well worth charities, including Redkite which supports the families of children with cancer - with the total raised over 17 years now well over $2 million. Like the industry itself, this event has evolved over the past 17 years from a bunch of managers letting their hair down at Sydney's legendary Basement, through to last night's excellent event for almost 500 held at the Westin's Ballroom.
The award for the individual contribution to the Australian hedge fund industry went to Bronte Capital's John Hempton. For those not aware, Hempton's skills have been particularly evident in uncovering dodgy, if not fraudulent, accounting, and shorting overvalued companies. One person who will not be impressed either by the industry's recognition of Hempton, or by his expertise on the short side, would be Harvey Norman's Gerry Harvey, who once again this week came out spitting chips about the level of short sales in his beloved company.
Without going into the rights or wrongs of short selling, Hedge Clippings' view is that the best way to avoid short sellers is to clean up one's balance sheet, have accurate and transparent accounts, and focus on managing the business at hand (and in Harvey's case that means retailing, not farming). Of course that doesn't cover the situation of short sellers of stocks that are considered vastly overvalued, but if anything they are helping to ensure that valuations don't become even further stretched.
