World Bank cuts 2016 growth forecast from 2.9% to 2.4%
Hedge Clippings sometimes wonders at those really smart people who are tasked with producing economic forecasts. Why can't they ever seem to get it right? OK, we accept that it's not an easy job, but a 50 basis point cut since their previous forecast issued in January suggests they need to take a look out of the window, or even take a walk in the street.
To make matters worse the overview on their website included the warning (if you didn't need it) that their "projections are subject to substantial downside risks, including additional growth disappointments in advanced economies or key emerging markets and rising policy and geopolitical uncertainties". That sounds to us like hedging their bets, with the likelihood that at some time in the next few months they will announce further (downward) adjustments. They'd better get a move on, because the year is almost half gone already, so the margin for error is getting slimmer by the day.
To be fair these are difficult times, and there are a significant number of risks out there. It seems that Janet Yellen and the US Fed have put off a rate rise in the immediate future, while in Germany of all places, that European powerhouse of industrial growth, yields have finally slipped into negative territory.
And talking of false or wildly hopeful expectations, how either of Australia's two political parties expect the electorate to believe that the budget can be brought back into surplus within the next five years, or for that matter the next ten, without a major overhaul of both spending and taxation, neither of which are politically acceptable to a significant proportion of the population, never ceases to amaze us.
On a completely different and unrelated note and nothing to do with the World Bank, economic forecasts, or unrealistic politicians, Mohammed Ali sadly passed away last week-end. Among all the articles that were written was one by Peter FitzSimons which (probably correctly) blamed boxing for our heroes' condition, and ultimately his untimely end. However, Fitzy missed the point that without boxing it is unlikely that Cassius Clay would have ever emerged onto the world stage, and we would all have been worse off as a result.
So as a tribute to a real hero, a couple of quotes out of the thousands from the man who rightly claimed to be the "greatest" - in many senses of the word, in and out of the ring:
"Impossible is just a big word thrown around by small men who find it easier to live in the world they've been given, than to explore the power they have to change it. Impossible is not a fact. It's an opinion. Impossible is not a declaration. It's a dare. Impossible is potential. Impossible is temporary. Impossible is nothing."
And another:
"Don't count the days, make the days count."
RIP
APN Asian AREIT Fund rose 4.57% for the month of April, compared to the BBAREIT Index's return of 5.68%. Since inception, the Fund has an annualised return of 17.19% p.a.
Insync Global Titans Fund returned 0.7% in April, taking annualised return since inception in October 2009 to 9.2%.
Meme Australian Share Fund rose 5.43% for the month of May, to take latest 12 months return to 22.93%.
Cyan C3G Fund returned +5.70% in May 2016. Over two years since inception, the Fund has an annualised return of 35.07% p.a.
Jamieson Coote Bonds Active Fund rose 1.19%, against the Bloomberg Australian Government Bond Index which returned 1.37%.
The Paragon Fund rose 7.0% for the month of May to take annualised return over 3 years since inception to 22%.
Optimal Australia Absolute Trust returned 2.29% to take annualised return since inception in 2008 to 9.22% p.a; standard deviation of just 3.68%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.53.
Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund rose 7.58% in May, outperforming the ASX 200 Accumulation Index by 4.49%, while taking 12-month performance to 31%, and annualised performance over 13 years to 18%.
FUND REVIEWS released this week: APN Asian REIT Fund; Insync Global Titans Fund;
And on that note, have a great weekend.
Regards,
Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS
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