Feedback from two recent hedge fund conferences, one in Hong Kong and one in Sydney, have confirmed that the next three months will create significant challenges for hedge fund managers around the world.
As a result of the crisis in all financial markets, and the damage done to corporate balance sheets around the world, there has been widespread deleveraging as investors, banks, investment banks and other financial institutions rush to get their balance sheets in order, and reduce debt wherever possible. One keynote speaker at the AsiaHedge conference in Hong Kong last week claimed that investment banks had increased their leverage over the past few years from a factor of 10 times to over 40 times. This was now in the process of being unwound. In addition many of those investment banks operate (or operated) prime broking facilities for hedge funds, which also included leverage of up to 5 to 10 times for the underlying funds in some instances .
Many hedge funds and fund of funds, especially the large ones based in the US and Europe, operate with 12 month lock-ups to 31 December each year, and also require 90 days notice for redemptions. Those redemption notices will have hit at the end of September and reports are coming through which indicate that possibly 25% or more of investors' funds might be recalled either through necessity or in order to reallocate to other managers or strategies.
Very few of these have been made public as yet, and it is unlikely that too many managers will want to publicise the fact for fear of triggering additional redemptions from other investors. However it is more than likely that some managers will invoke the gate clauses in their management agreements, and halt redemptions come 31st of December or otherwise face the prospect of closing the shop.
In any event the de-leveraging that has been such a powerful downward force in equity markets over the past 3 to 6 months is likely to continue. Hedge fund selling to meet redemptions will add to the downward pressure and certainly create some headlines in the media.
