Two sides of the confidence coin
There's little doubt that business conditions are not getting any easier based on a number of results and guidances released this week. The share price of electronics retailer Dick Smith has been savaged following an earnings downgrade; Woolworths continues to struggle to return to the glory days of their dominance over Coles, as well as having to contend with the rise of Aldi; and National Australia Bank's margins in the business loan division appear to be declining sharply.
In spite of this business confidence, based on the NAB's monthly survey of around 350 small, medium and large Australian companies, increased to 5 in September from a score of 1 in August, not-withstanding it remains a long way south of the all-time high of 21 in May 2002, but also well north of the all-time low of -31 in January 2009 during the hiatus of the GFC.
To what extent the rise in business confidence is a result of the change in Prime Minister will no doubt depend on one's own political view, but anecdotal evidence would suggest that the two are strongly correlated. In discussions over the past couple of weeks with a variety of fund managers amongst others, the majority of whom one would safely assume to be variously to the right of centre, the mood appears to be universally positive.
To what extent one person can change the Country's outlook, and even more importantly, to what extent that change will affect the eventual outcome, we will have to wait and see. The pertinent point is that even rusted on Liberal voters were deeply concerned with the direction (or should that just be the diction) of the previous leadership, and it now appears that clear confidence in leadership, and clear direction, might be able to overcome difficult economic conditions.
Given that this week-end we will see the Wallabies in the final of the RWC, when just over 12 months ago they were a leaderless, or badly led rabble, and more generally tagged as the "Woefull Wallabies" there's a great message here. Michael Cheika has shown that properly motivated, the same players playing up at the back of the bus can respond to difficult times, and through hard work and plenty of grunt, turn a potential disaster into the possibility of taking the prize.
Irrespective of the outcome of this week-end's final, pride will have been restored both on and off the paddock, win, lose, or heaven help us, draw.
Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:
Supervised High Yield Fund rose 0.36% in September, to bring annualised performance since inception to 9.91% p.a.
For the month of September COR Capital Fund returned -0.66% to bring it's annualised return since inception to 4.18%.
FUND REVIEWS released this week: Morphic Global Opportunities Fund; Pengana Absolute Return Asia Pacific Fund; APN Asian REIT Fund
And on that note, Go! Wallabies, Go! so that at least on this side of the Tasman we can enjoy the week-end.
Regards,
Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS
Connect with me on LinkedIn Twitter Facebook
|
Registration to AFM is free and provides general information and performance data on Absolute Return, Hedge Funds and Alternative Investments. |
Fund Managers and paid Subscribers have access to details on Individual Managers and Funds, with historical results, key performance indicators, latest news and performance reports. |
Prism Select provides self-directed investors and their advisors with factual information, performance data and opportunity to apply for funds online using OLIVIA123. |
Tune into Sky Business on Foxtel every week on Monday at 2:15pm for AFM's weekly comment. |
