Chinese authorities treading a dangerous path
The news that the China Securities Regulatory Commission was prohibiting investors who own more than 5% of a publicly traded company from selling shares for six months is likely to do more to damage their market than save it. The ban will include foreign investors who hold shares that trade on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, and comes after Chinese equities lost more than 25% of their value since mid-June.
If anyone can pull off what the Chinese authorities are trying to do, they can, but we doubt they'll succeed. They might be able to control their own citizens from selling shares in smaller caps, or freezing parcels of 5% or more of a publicly listed companies for six months, but the longer term damage to their reputation, and the confidence of traders, investors, and market participants at home and abroad, will be difficult to overcome.
What the Chinese authorities are doing is freezing liquidity, and in this regard it seems they haven't learned from the lessons of 2008 when central banks, governments, and regulators around the world tried to ban short selling, close markets, and in a word, panic. And if governments and the authorities panic, that's exactly what investors are likely to do as well.
Rudyard Kipling put it quite clearly: "If you can keep your head when all around you are losing theirs and blaming it on you" but it seems the Chinese authorities didn't listen, or haven't read Kipling.
By stopping investors selling smaller stocks, they're going to be forced to sell larger ones, and possibly the better ones, to cover their liquidity requirements, margin calls, their need for cash, or just to stuff under the mattress. While western authorities have probably learned from their mistakes of 2008 and might not make the same ones again in a panic, they also succeeded in restricting longer term liquidity through regulations on banks and other market participants in an effort to avoid another too big to fail scenario.
China threatens to make the Greek tragedy just a pimple by comparison. Whatever eventuates in Greece has largely been anticipated by most savvy investors over the past few years, and if a three year moratorium is agreed to it will probably only extend the agony further. There seems no way that the Greek economy, about the same size as that of the State of New South Wales, is ever going to be able to repay the levels of debt.
And so on to fund performance in June.
It was obviously a rocky ride on global markets in June, initially in response to Greece, but more recently as a result of China's problems. The ASX 200 Accumulation Index fell by 5.3%, and July has seen a continuation of the volatility since. Over the 12 months to the end of June the ASX200 rose only 1.17%, or 5.68% on an accumulation basis. By comparison and based on the 25% of fund returns received to date, equity-based hedge funds fell by only 1.41% in June, an outperformance of almost 4%, with 87% of those outperforming the ASX 200 Accumulation Index. Over the past 12 months equity-based funds have returned 11.57%, double the return of the accumulation index.
In addition to the performance updates below, results of note include Kentgrove Capital, (+4.1%) Totus Alpha Fund, (+6.3% (e)) QATO (+1.89%) Bennelong Long Short (+4.86%).
Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:
Monash Absolute Investment Fund fell 1.9% in June in a weak Australian equity market, but still taking the Fund's annualised return since inception to 14.11% p.a.
FUND REVIEWS released this week: Totus Alpha Fund; Insync Global Titans Fund; Supervised High Yield Fund
20 - 21 August 2015 -The 2nd Superannuation Fund Investment Operations Forum 2015 is a two day forum providing invaluable technological, regulatory compliant and best practice insights into improving back and middle office efficiency to drive member loyalty, bottom line profitability and a competitive edge
26 - 28 August 2015 -The 15th Annual Wraps, Platforms & Masterfunds Conference will provide solutions for succeeding in a distribution world of endless possibilities, showcasing strategies to help business achieve the biggest bite of market share, use innovation to overcome problems and support opportunities. Australian Fund Monitors is pleased to offer a discount of $300to all investors and advisors using coupon codepromoFMon registration.
15 September 2015 -The AIMA Australia Hedge Fund Forum 2015 is the annual non-profit hedge fund conference organised by the industry for the industry.
And finally best wishes for a happy and healthy week-end ahead,
Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS
Connect with me on LinkedIn Twitter Facebook
|
Registration to AFM is free and provides general information and performance data on Absolute Return, Hedge Funds and Alternative Investments. |
Fund Managers and paid Subscribers have access to details on Individual Managers and Funds, with historical results, key performance indicators, latest news and performance reports. |
Prism Select provides self-directed investors and their advisors with factual information, performance data and opportunity to apply for funds online using OLIVIA123. |
Tune into Sky Business on Foxtel every week on Monday at 2:15pm for AFM's weekly comment. |
Australian Fund Monitors are helping to raise awareness to support research into prevention and cure for cerebral palsy. For more information visit www.cpresearch.org.au or contact me by email.
