Greece moves from close to the edge, to on the edge.
Four or maybe five years ago (Hedge Clippings loses track of time as the years roll by) at the GAIM hedge fund conference in Monaco, a show of hands was held to see how many of the 400 or so assembled attendees thought Greece would survive as part of the EU. To the surprise of some, myself included, less than half of the audience were positive about the eventual outcome.
Had further questions been asked about how soon such an exit might occur fewer might have picked 2015, but now much wrangling has passed it appears that Greece is literally teetering on the edge of the EU cliff, and that a Grexit is more than just a 55/45 possibility. It is doubtful that a minor economy such as Greece's will have too much of a direct impact on Australia, but the indirect effects could be considerable. To be honest our expertise in this area is limited, so the opinion of those with greater knowledge is likely to be much more worthwhile.
Morphic Asset Management's recent blog (27th May) might be slightly more on the money, even if written a month or so ago. Their Greek expert, Irene Kardasis belives that an agreement will be reached sooner or later, and everyone will have to compromise. Meanwhile Morphic's risk averse CIO, Jack Lowenstein believes that the Europeans have already written Greece off, and that any deal, if there is one, will be last minute, but probably not long lasting.
He's right about it being last minute, and will probably be right about it not lasting long as well. You can find Morphic's full comments here.
Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:
Allard Investment Fund net of all fees, increased 1.0% during the month of May 2015.
The Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund rose 0.41% in May, to bring the Fund's annual performance since inception to 13.01% compared to the ASX200 Accumulation benchmark's 5.60%.
Morphic Global Opportunities Fund rose 3.79% in May as its benchmark (MSCI AC World Total Return in Australian Dollars) rose 2.91%, resulting inoutperformance of 0.88%.
The Optimal Australia Absolute Trust reported a net positive return in May of 2.04%, compared to the ASX200 Accumulation Index of 0.40%.
The Paragon Fund returned 2.40% versus the ASX 200 Accumulation's 0.40%, for the month of May 2015. The Fund's annual return since inception has been 21.66% p.a. versus the Index's 10.39% p.a.
Cor Capital Fund returned 1.23% bringing the 12-month return to 8.04%, exceeding the RBA Cash Rate Benchmark by 5.6%.
FUND REVIEWS released this week: Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund; Monash Absolute Investment Fund
20 - 21 August 2015 -The 2nd Superannuation Fund Investment Operations Forum 2015 is a two day forum providing invaluable technological, regulatory compliant and best practice insights into improving back and middle office efficiency to drive member loyalty, bottom line profitability and a competitive edge
26 - 28 August 2015 -The 15th Annual Wraps, Platforms & Masterfunds Conference will provide solutions for succeeding in a distribution world of endless possibilities, showcasing strategies to help business achieve the biggest bite of market share, use innovation to overcome problems and support opportunities. Australian Fund Monitors is pleased to offer a discount of $300 to all investors and advisors using coupon code promoFM on registration.
15 September 2015 -The AIMA Australia Hedge Fund Forum 2015 is the annual non-profit hedge fund conference organised by the industry for the industry.
We are going to avoid any political comments this week, inspite of there being much to comment on: Bill Shorten and the AWU; US Presidential candidates Donald Trump and JEB Bush; Tony Abbott's disdain for clean energy etc. We are probably spoilt for choice, particulary after the Pope's comments on climate change.
Instead this week's "And Now for Something Completely Different" is altogether more hopeful and uplifting.
And finallybest wishes for a happy and healthy week-end ahead,
Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS
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