The volatility that had been threatening Australian equities for the past few months, but which had stubbornly refused to be reflected in the market, hit home severely in September with the ASX 200 Accumulation Index down -5.4%.
To put that into context, it's the worst performance by the Australian market since May 2012 (-6.64%) and the first time since August 2012 that the rolling 12 month return (+5.93%) has dipped into single figures. On a year-to-date basis the accumulated return of the ASX 200 is now just 2.42%.
At the same time, and undoubtedly connected, the Aussie dollar also took a bath (or at least a cold shower) as a combination of poor commodity prices, particularly iron ore as China's buying slowed, a resurgence in the US dollar on the back of the end of QE, and the threat of impending increases in US interest rates saw capital outflow across the Pacific.
The funds in the best position are likely to be those with offshore and US dollar exposure in particular, provided they had limited currency hedging in place.
None of this was particularly surprising, and in fact to many fund managers it was somewhat inevitable. Investor's incessant chase for yield, particularly in the banking sector, had seen valuations stretched, with more than a few managers struggling to outperform while staying true to type. While it is early days yet for accurate indications for September returns, those that we have seen indicate the manager's ability to outperform in falling markets.
For hedge funds in particular the past two years have not been the easiest of times, and whilst none will particularly like the falling market, the increase in volatility, and their general ability to protect capital will reinforce their value to investors.
Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:
The Allard Investment Fund (Asian equity) returned 0.40% during August and 9.35% over the preceding year with a volatility of 5.46%.
During August, the Morphic Global Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 1.28% and 14.57% over the previous 12 months with a volatility of 8.23%.
CPD points are available for all FUND REVIEWS released this week including:
Insync Global Titans Fund; Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund;
15-17 October Grace Hotel, Sydney - Investment Performance Measurement, Attribution & Risk Management Forum will have leading experts sharing up-to-date, cutting edge ideas and insight on frontiers of recent developments in performance measurement.
21-22 October in Sydney Post-Retirement Australia 2014 conference. Comprehensive two day forum for high profile cross industry participants to provide updates, insights and ongoing discussion into the key issues central to achieving optimal financial outcomes.
Friday 24 October in Sydney Financial and Media Markets Charity Regatta Day out of Middle Harbour Yacht Club. Promises to be a fantastic day.
5-6 November, Grace Hotel, Sydney. Alternative Investments Conference - Investigating the rise of non-traditional high yield and low risk investment products, strategies and allocation in an era of prolonged volatility and low returns.
This week's Now For Something Completely Different... with a long weekend approaching, double demerit points are in force, so whatever you do, drive safely or take alternative forms of transport. This clip is quite sobering, but should be watched by everyone to remind us that we aren't invincible.
Best wishes for a happy and healthy weekend,
Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS
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Australian Fund Monitors are helping to raise awareness to support research into prevention and cure for cerebral palsy. For more information visit www.cpresearch.org.au or contact me by email.
