FoFA stalls, QE falls, Taper and the new era of the dot plot.
In the first Hedge Clippings of 2014, way back in mid-January, we wrote that we had polled a number of fund managers on their views of the market's direction for 2014. The general consensus was for a more subdued return than in 2013 but with higher volatility, and in that regard they were spot on. Year to date the ASX200 has gone nowhere, although it has hardly flat lined, after falling over 3% in January, rising almost 5% in February, and falling a further 1.6% so far in March.
For the record, in 2013 the 12 month rolling return of the ASX 200 Accumulation Index only fell below 20% for one month (in March, and even then it was 19.98%) while in May it reached an impressive 26.5%. By comparison in the first two months of 2014 the rolling 12 month performance in January was 11% and 10.6% in February. Month to date in March the twelve-month return is 11.31%.
It would seem that the fund managers we spoke to in January got it right, at least so far. However it does mean that if the market is to repeat the 20% returns enjoyed in each of the last two years it will need to get a move on, with almost one quarter of the year already history.
Changing tack, in more ways than one, the proposed changes to FoFA would appear to have stalled as the Bill amending the legislation has been referred to a Senate Economics Committee enquiry which is not expected to complete its task until mid-June. Coupled with the upcoming Murray enquiry into the financial system, due to release it's interim report mid-year, with the final report expected to be delivered in November, the potential for a changing landscape is considerable - or should that be inevitable?
And on the subject of changing landscapes, overnight the new chair of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, confirmed the continuing unwinding of the great ongoing experiment known as Quantitative Easing, with the third consecutive monthly reduction, or Taper as it has become known. Expectations are now that QE will be a thing of the past by October or November this year, while expectations for a tightening of interest rates in the US have increased, albeit only marginally, by the end of 2014, but with a more significant shift in expectations for both 2015 and 2016.
In doing so Yellen has introduced into every day financial speak the concept of the dot plot as a way to graphically illustrate the expectations of the individual FOMC participants for the timing and extent of the inevitable start of rate hikes. As someone who much prefers to look at a picture that paints a thousand words than having to read and then hopefully understand them, I'm rather taken by the dot plot and its graphical simplicity, even if Yellen suggested that we should not pay it too much attention.
The bottom line was that there has been a shift - marginal but quite pronounced - in FOMC expectations for a tightening. Even so, more than half the FOMC participants expect the Fed funds rate to still be 1% or less by the end of 2015. The problem is that with everyone hanging on every word Yellen utters it is inevitable that her suggestion not to follow the "dot plot" too closely is likely to be ignored, and I would be very surprised if we don't hear a great deal more of the term going forward.
While on the subject of looking forward, keep an eye out for natural gas prices in the US which have jumped sharply on the back of President Putin and his slightly clumsy attempt at democracy for the Crimea; a sharp rise wheat prices, and even more alarming, the price of coffee on the back of the drought in Brazil forcing up the price of my multiple daily doses of caffeine.
Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE and NEWS UPDATES:
Totus' Alpha Fund has taken full advantage of the buoyant equity markets over the last twelve months to return 51.45% over that time. The fund returned 1.44% during February.
The Pengana Australian Equities Market Neutral Fund returned 2.90% during February with a net market exposure of 2.7%.
Insync's Global Titans Fund benefited from stronger equity markets during February returning 2.39% and 24.17% over the year with a notable down capture ratio of -0.84.
The Paragon Fund returned 3.80% for February, with a net exposure of 73.6%, and 21.72% (10.56% ASX 200 Acc Index) for the previous twelve months. Over this time average cash holdings were 35% contributing to the lower volatility number of 7.56% as compared to the Index 11.49%.
Intelligent Investor's Value Fund returned 0.48% in February and a very sound 31.94% for the year to end-February (ASX 200 Acc Index 10.56%).
27-29 March 2014: Superannuation Fund Back Office: 2014 Forum in Sydney convenes those responsible for superannuation member administration and investment operation services. It has been designed to explore emerging efficiencies and best practice in a number of key areas.
Also in Sydney on 27-28 March 2014: Operations Risk Management and Mitigation seminar enables participants to prepare and manage the planning and implementation of operational risk management processes.
Tuesday 1 April 2014: The Future of Financial Services Regulation breakfast seminar at Cockle Bay, Sydney. At this upcoming Leaders Series breakfast, Money Management and Super Review will bring together key players involved in this inquiry, including the deputy chairman of ASIC, Peter Kell, and one of the politicians at the centre of the Parliamentary Inquiry into ASIC, Senator David Bushby. They will provide unique insights into what the future of the financial services regulator will look like and the implications which may flow from the Financial Systems Review.
Tuesday 1 April 2014: AdventConnect 2014, Sydney. Stay up to date on industry trends with fresh insights from industry thought leaders, fund managers, and the executive management team at Advent Technology.
If you know of any upcoming hedge fund industry Events, or would like your Event listed in our calendar, please contact us.
And now for something completely different this week, it has been a long time since I have had any interaction with a bouncer, and when I did I'm sure I was blameless (?) so "giving bouncers a taste of their own medicine" struck a chord!
On that note, I hope you have a happy, safe and bouncer free weekend.
Best wishes,
Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS
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