Looking back over previous issues of "Hedge Clippings" we frequently mention the subject of demographics and the challenges ahead for Australia's and the world's economies, and society. Maybe that's an indication of the fact that in one way, as a member of the over '50's generation, advancing age, like an option's time decay, affects me more as I approach expiry. High on our list of concerns is the challenge facing governments regarding the expansion of the ageing population, longevity and the cost of lengthening retirements.
With that in mind this week we attended an excellent Deloitte's presentation of the findings of their research and forecast into the Dynamics of the Australian Superannuation System. Space doesn't permit listing all the findings or recommendations, so you can find a copy of the presentation here. However some pertinent facts include the projection that over the next 20 years:
Meanwhile 50% of all children born today will live to be 100, and the life expectancy of a 65 year old retiring today is 85, and rising. Consider the fact that when the aged pension was first introduced in Europe, if you retired at 65 you were unlikely to live more than 3 more years.
Governments meanwhile are between a rock and a hard place, needing to fund the ageing and increasingly long lived and expensive retirees, but reluctant to take the unpopular decisions to do so.
So what's my point, apart from the fact that although technically correct that I'm a member of the over '50's generation, I am sadly beyond that milestone as well? Firstly given the above statistics, the 12% SGL is insufficient to fund most peoples' retirement.
Secondly, as far as investment strategy and asset allocation are concerned, finding a home for the $7.6 trillion in super over the next 20 years will force, or encourage, greater investment in global markets.
And finally, although hard to achieve, a return of greater than 6.8% per annum will be required to fund a reasonable retirement, and in our (possibly biased view) that's more likely to be achieved through an increased allocation to absolute return strategies.
Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE and NEWS UPDATES:
The Totus Alpha Fund returned a very strong 14.2% for October bringing the since inception (April 2012) annualised return to 32.83%. The Fund has a Sharpe ratio of 1.76 and a Sortino ratio of 5.70 indicating a sound risk-reward ratio. The comparative data for the ASX 200 Accumulation is 1.42 and 2.14.
Auscap's Long Short Australian Equities Fund recorded a strong 5.46% during October bringing the six month return to 26.66%. The Fund's up and down capture ratios are notable at 1.02 and -0.62 respectively. The Fund's average gross capital employed was 122.8% long and 24.3% short. Average net exposure over the month was +98.4%. At the end of the month the Fund had 24 long positions and 7 short positions. The Fund's biggest exposures at month-end were spread across the consumer discretionary, financials, healthcare and telecommunications sectors.
The AFM Prism Active Equity Fund returned 1.29% (e) for October and has returned 6.08% p.a. with a volatility of 2.43% since inception. The Fund is characterised by very low risk with a standard deviation of 2.43% as compared to the ASX 200 Accumulation Index number of 10.75%, a maximum draw-down of -1.42% (Index -6.72%) and a worst month performance of -0.62% (Index -4.50%). The Sharpe ratio was 1.27 and the average monthly return in negative markets was 0.49%. All statistics are since inception in October 2012. The Fund has re-allocated to three new funds to provide more upside exposure in buoyant markets while maintaining an ongoing focus on targeting low volatility.
Aurora Fortitude's Absolute Return Fund returned 0.28% during October and 6.82% for the latest 12 months with a volatility of 1.67%. The Fund continues to deliver steady returns within a low risk framework with 88% positive months, a maximum draw-down of 2.09% (ASX 200 Acc Index 47.19%) and downside deviation of 1.31 (Index 10.80) since inception in March 2005.
Yield was the best performing strategy for the month (+0.14%) and the Long/Short strategy also had a strong month (+0.11%). As with many of the stronger monthly market moves, the Options strategy was again a draw-down (-0.12%). The S&P/ASX200 index puts and calls were a cost to the Fund as realisable volatility was lower than the implied volatility paid to own the market protection.
The Pengana Asia Special Events (onshore) Fund returned 1.10% for October with a long term performance (since Oct 2008) of 12.01% pa (Index 7.99% pa) and a low market correlation of -0.1. The Fund's risk statistics are sound with a volatility of 6.28% (Index 14.73%), maximum draw-down of 4.05% (Index 25.80%) and a down capture ratio of -0.46. The positive contribution from M&A positions dominated the performance for the month, and this continues to be the most significant component within the Fund's strategic allocation. Australian and Hong Kong / Chinese markets proved particularly profitable while solid gains were also made in India and Thailand. All strategies made positive contributions for the month. The Fund maintained an average net and gross exposure of 11% and 155% respectively.
BlackRock's Australian Equity Market Neutral Fund returned 1.12% in October bringing its since inception (Oct 2001) return to 12.01% pa (ASX 200 Acc Index 8.80% pa) with a volatility of 5.67% (Index 13.18%). Notable are the Fund's maximum draw-down of 12.41% (Index 47.19%) and down-side capture ratio of -0.60. The Manager notes that the Fund's performance benefited from an overweight to iron ore producers versus other miners as the iron ore fines price remained above market expectations. Short positions in mining services companies were also profitable with further downgrades across the sector. Other outperforming positions were over-weights in wealth managers which continue to run due to exposure to the rising market, and positive stock selection within the healthcare sector. The main performance detractors came from short positions in domestic cyclicals such as building materials, retail and media.
FUND REVIEWS updated this week include:
The Optimal Australia Absolute Trust Optimal Australia is a specialist Australian equity investment manager and the Fund has a long/short equity strategy typically with a low but variable net market exposure comprising 40 to 65 stocks broadly selected from within the ASX200. The Fund has recorded out-performance of the market since inception in September 2008 with approximately 84% of monthly performances having positive returns and the largest drawdown -1.38%.
Bennelong Kardinia's Absolute Return Fund The Fund is long biased, research driven, active equity long/short strategy investing in listed ASX companies with a seven year track record. Since inception in May 2006 the Fund has returned 14.24% p.a. as compared to 4.93% (S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index) with a volatility of 7.81% p.a., around one-half of the ASX volatility of 14.76% p.a. The Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund rose 2.17% in October.
The Insync Global Titans Fund The Global Titans Fund invests in a concentrated portfolio of 15-25 stocks, targeting exceptional, large cap global companies with a strong focus on dividend growth and downside protection. The Fund's unit price increased by 1.5% in October, with the largest positive contributions coming from our holdings in CR Bard, Reckitt Benckiser, Wyndham Hotels, British Sky Broadcasting and Sanofi. The main detractors for the month included Coach and Dr Pepper Snapple. Portfolio selection is driven by a core strategy of investing in companies with sustainable growth in dividends, high returns on capital, positive free cash flows and strong balance sheets. Emphasis on limiting downside risk is through extensive company research, the ability to hold cash and long protective index put options.
If you know of any upcoming hedge fund industry Events, or would like your Event listed in our calendar, please contact us.
Now for something completely different, something completely different... Australian Fund Monitors are helping to raise awareness to support research into prevention and cure for cerebral palsy. Although we usually like to include a humorous clip every week, we were moved by watching Gavin's Bridge Climb and urge you to take a few minutes to see it for yourself.
Did You Know?
For more information visit www.cpresearch.org.au or contact me by email chris.gosselin@fundmonitors.com
On that note, enjoy the week-end!
Regards,
Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS
