QE's has to end sooner or later.
Nothing lasts forever (except true love, so they say) and QE3 will be no different. The question of course is whether Dr Bernanke, or his successor, can manage the taper from the US $85 billion a month of QE life support through to a reasonably healthy and self supporting economy without investors pulling the rug out from underneath the market?
Based on last night's performance from New York and Europe, it seems not, but surely any reasonably sensible market participant would be able to work out that sooner or later the QE theme tune has to end as the US economy recovers. However, investors being what they are, history shows that nearly everyone hangs around thinking they'll be able to exit painlessly. Memories of '87, the "tech wreck" of 2000, and even the great credit bubble leading up to 2008 don't seem to last too long.
China seems to be following the same way, and although the staunch believers are committed to the "stronger for longer" theme, it's worth reminding them again that nothing lasts forever, at least not without some imbalances being created along the way.
Japan, the world's third largest economy, is learning the hard lessons of trying to kick start a moribund economy to life. For a start Japan's demographics will create significant difficulties, with its workforce forecast to fall to just half the population by 2050, down from 70% in 1990. Japan's experiment is just starting, and it may well work, but the risks along the way are significant.
And finally on the "nothing lasts forever" theme the Aussie dollar's flirt with parity against the US$ seems to have come to an end, in spite of some still believing the current fall is just a temporary blip. Falling interest rates at home, rising one's in the US, a slowdown in resources (price and volume) and repatriation of capital from the carry trade of the past few years make any meaningful rally unlikely.
Volatility is back, and as we suggested back on February 22 when we warned of the historically low levels of the VIX, that's often an indication of the lull before the storm.
Performance and News Updates on www.fundmonitors.com this week:
Aurora Fortitude Absolute Return Fund returned 0.78% during May and 5.79% over the last 12 months. The Fund is characterised by it's very low volatility at 2.84% pa (since inception) as compared to the S&P/ASX 200AI volatility of 14.58%.
The Pengana Australian Equities Fund recorded -1.3% during May and 25.66% for the last twelve months. As at 31st May, cash (including notes and preference shares) represented 31% of the Fund. The top five holdings by value were: DUET Group, Caltex, ANZ Bank, Telstra and Resmed.
Pengana Asia Special Events Fund recorded 1.63% during May and has a twelve month performance record of 11.79%.
The Monash Absolute Investment Fund returned -1.1% during May and 13.87% for the last six months. Despite a difficult month for stocks in Australia the portfolio fell only 1.1% in May and is up 17.3% for the financial year.
And finally there is no "for something completely different" this week as we mentioned above, nothing lasts forever (except as we noted true love, so they say).
On that note, I hope you have a happy and healthy weekend!
Regards,
Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS
