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| Fund Overview | The Fund's bias is likely to be net long under normal market conditions, with the core strategy being to construct a portfolio of listed equity securities priced at levels that do not adequately reflect their underlying value. The Fund will seek to boost returns and limit potential market downside by selective short selling of individual stocks which are priced at levels that are viewed as materially above their underlying value. The Fund will also use certain trading strategies both within its core portfolio (through rebalancing stock weights and overall market exposure in response to price movements) and in certain other situations (typically of a shorter-duration and/or opportunistic nature) with the objective of further increasing returns. |
| Manager Comments | Australian equities gave back part of their recent strong gains in March, and underperformed most other developed world equity markets. The Trust finished the month with a flat return. The manager comments that they had felt markets were due a pause, and maintained low net exposure for most of the month. Further they comment that investors need to be clearly aware that equity markets remain in thrall to central bank bond-buying and the consequent strangulation of interest rates. The impact of these policies on economic growth is unconvincing, but they have certainly served to distort liquidity flows and capital allocation on a grand scale. This has come as a boon to equity markets, which have re-rated earnings yields and dividend yields downwards in step with falling bond yields. But, in the absence of real growth, equity markets may be worshipping a false god. This environment is dangerous from the perspective of capital preservation, and increasingly so, because it requires wilful suspension of any risk consideration by equity investors other than “relative value” as measured against a highly artificial bond/cash yield construct. The manager has previously written at length about the unusually narrow breadth of market leadership in Australia, and the unusual concentration of returns in a handful of defensive/yield leaders. These trends continued through most of March, with Financials finishing the month flat, and Materials down another 10.5%. On a rolling year basis, Financials are up 29% and Materials are down 15%, while Consumer Staples are up 30%, Telcoms 37%, and Healthcare 43%. The manager comments that with an investment process grounded to a large extent in fundamental valuation, they are unable to buy grocery retailers at between 18-20x forward earnings, with low and declining earnings growth, with asset level ROIC that has already been rebased up sharply, and with the prospect of increasing competition and regulatory risk. Similarly, they could not regard dividend yield sourced from highly-leveraged financial equity featuring 70%+ payout ratios, astonishingly low credit loss provisions, and price-to-book multiples of 2-3x as a logical substitute for fixed income yield, even ignoring the apples/oranges duration mismatch. Yet it has been just those investments that have clearly paid, but, again, to an overwhelming extent, only due to the revaluation of yield. The performance gap between defensive industrials and resources stocks continues to confound the manager. This gap has reached levels unprecedented in Optimal's experience, at least for those time intervals when Chinese demand data points seem to be stabilising, and when the market has already worked itself into lather over well-advertised supply additions in the bulk commodity group. Major contributors to the Trust’s return for the month by industry sector included: Longs (-0.26% attribution) Positive: transport, media, gold, banks Negative: resources, energy, REITs. Shorts (0.29% attribution) Positive: REITs, staples, index futures Negative: gaming, diversified financials. |
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