NEWS
30 Jan 2026 - Hedge Clippings |30 January 2026
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Hedge Clippings | 30 January 2026
News | Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Magellan Infrastructure Quarterly Update January | Magellan Investment Partners Trip Insights: Canada - US | 4D Infrastructure December 2025 Performance News Insync Global Capital Aware Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) |
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23 Jan 2026 - Hedge Clippings |23 January 2026
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Hedge Clippings | 23 January 2026December's stronger than expected unemployment rate of 4.1% (down from 4.3% seasonally adjusted) indicated that, in simple terms, the labour market is running hotter than the RBA would ideally like. Demand for workers remains solid, wage pressures are unlikely to fade quickly, and the risk of inflation sticking around for longer stays on the table. If only labour productivity were increasing! For the RBA's first meeting of the new year, due on 2-3rd of February, this makes a near-term rate cut highly unlikely, although it may be a meeting too early to see rates rise. The RBA has been clear that it wants to see convincing evidence that inflation is moving sustainably back to target, and a tight labour market works against that narrative. Based on the unemployment rate, a hold is the base case scenario, with the Bank reinforcing its "higher for longer" stance rather than opening the door to easing. Of course, that could all go out the window when December's monthly CPI figures are released next Wednesday. Expectations are for headline inflation to continue easing, helped by goods disinflation, lower freight costs and softer discretionary spending. However, the real focus will be on the underlying measures, particularly trimmed mean inflation. Consensus is that this will remain sticky, especially in services such as rents, insurance, health and education. Whatever the outcome, an easing is unlikely given the cautionary nature of the RBA's mindset, and particularly after they probably consider they might have jumped the gun when cutting rates to 3.6% last August, following previous cuts in May, and before that in February. The August rate cut led leading economists from the big four banks and others to get overly excited, with AMP's Shane Oliver expecting the RBA to cut further last November, and again in February and May, taking the cash rate to 2.85%. Followers of Hedge Clippings may remember that our regular market experts, Nick Chaplin from Seed Asset Management and Renny Ellis from Arculus, were not only critical of the RBA's August move but also correctly warned against those betting on a further cut in November. When we last spoke to them before Christmas, they were of the view that the RBA's next move could well be up, so we look forward to checking in with them once next week's CPI results are out. For those who think Michele Bullock's gig as RBA Governor is difficult, with calls from economists and homeowners to drop rates, and no doubt with some quiet pressure behind the scenes from Treasury and Jim Chalmers, spare a thought for Jerome Powell. The Fed Chair is facing a criminal investigation (but no charges yet) relating to his congressional testimony about cost overruns at the Federal Reserve's headquarters. Powell claims it is because he won't bend to Trump's bidding to cut rates. We shall watch the outcome with interest. Will the Justice Department chicken out, or continue Trump's bidding? Powell's term as Fed Chair ends on the 15th of May (assuming Donald doesn't re-appoint him), although his term as a board member runs until January 2028. Coincidentally, that is when the next President is due in the White House, assuming Trump doesn't find a way to run again. Tempting though it may be to comment on Donald Trump's other regular and recent pronouncements and activities, there doesn't seem to be much that we could add. If nothing else, he's a media godsend and seemingly insistent on being at the centre of the news. If not, he'll say or do something to make sure he is. Watch this space, but importantly, have a great Australia Day holiday celebration. News | Insights 10k Words | Equitable Investors December 2025 Performance News Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund Seed Funds Management Financial Income Fund Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund |
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In 2025, there were a number of major themes that dominated markets and the news, and which in turn influenced returns of the various peer groups and the managed funds operating within them.
16 Jan 2026 - Hedge Clippings |16 January 2026
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Hedge Clippings | 16 January 2026Looking forward, Looking back, Welcome back! In 2025, there were a number of major themes that dominated markets and the news, and which in turn influenced returns of the various peer groups and the managed funds operating within them. Equity-based funds continued to benefit from the tailwinds of strong global equity markets, which saw the S&P 500 (T/R) deliver just shy of 18%, while the ASX 200 lagged that at 10.32%. The 542 equity-based funds in AFM's database averaged a return of 13.2%, with 55% of them outperforming the ASX 200. However, averages can be misleading! Fund selection remained (as ever) critical to success, with individual fund results ranging from -20% through to an impressive return of 294%. The question for investors and fund managers alike is whether the dominant themes of 2025 will continue into 2026? There's no reason to think they won't, and there's no reason that just rolling over from December 2025 into January 2026 will mysteriously change last year's trends. Global Technology and AI: The tech juggernaut, and particularly the focus on AI, rolled on - or did it? The bottom line is that the "Magnificent 7" became a "Dominant Duo" consisting of Alphabet and Nvidia. The so called Magnificent 7 averaged a return for the year of 27.5% outperforming the S&P 500 by a clear 10%, but that hid that fact that Alphabet (Google) and Nvidia were up 65%, and 40% respectively, while Microsoft (15%), Meta (13%), Apple (8%), and Amazon (6%) all underperformed the S&P 500. Elon Musk's Tesla, the last of the Mag 7, rose about 15% to be broadly in line with the market, having scored a few own goals, and distractions during the year. Artificial Intelligence dominated markets. It seems unlikely the focus and adoption of AI will wane - if anything, it is likely to continue to expand and dominate, but with question marks around stretched valuations, energy, and at a stock level, which horse to back there are likely to be both winners and losers. Gold, Precious metals, and Resources: In 2025 gold rose 65%, silver was up almost 150%, platinum 127%, while copper rose over 40%. Critical minerals and rare earths became both valuable and a geopolitical point of leverage. Not surprisingly, funds investing in resources, in part or exclusively, dominated the top-performing tables in 2025, with the Top five returning between 102% and 294% in 2025. As can be seen, resources are cyclical. Will the drivers of the precious metals boom continue? As always, there are those saying "this time it is different," although the queues of retail punters lining up in Martin Place each morning outside the bullion dealer suggest a toppy market. Geopolitics and the Trump Factor: The Trump Factor is one theme we're confident will remain in 2026. In the first two weeks of the year, Trump is dominating the headlines as only he can, including threatening the regime in Iran, kidnapping the President of Venezuela, eyeing off Greenland, and, closer to home, continuing to bully Jerome Powell (or trying to) into lowering interest rates. The problem for investors is that it is difficult to predict his unpredictability! If he persists with his intention to absorb Greenland, it is likely to end the NATO agreement - but maybe that's his ulterior motive? News | Insights Investment Perspectives: Thinking about A-REITS | Quay Global Investors Affordability is a hot button issue for 2026 | Magellan Asset Management December 2025 Performance News Bennelong Australian Equities Fund 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Glenmore Australian Equities Fund |
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19 Dec 2025 - Hedge Clippings |19 December 2025
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Hedge Clippings | 19 December 2025 It's too early to give clear accolades for the best performing funds for the year, but it's obviously clear that digital assets have been the worst performing peer group year to date, with an average performance of -13% to the end of November, and little chance to recover over the next 10 days. However, it does emphasise that a single year doesn't, or shouldn't, define digital funds, which returned 68% in 2024, and 86% in 2023 - and in keeping with their volatile nature, fell 50% in 2022. Over 7 years on a cumulative basis, funds in the digital asset peer group have returned 49.17%, clearly eclipsing the various equity peer groups - small cap, large cap, alternative, local and global - which have ranged between 10 and 12% annualised over the past 7 years, which in itself is a pretty attractive return. Over the past 12 months to the end of November, the average across all Equity Peer Groups has returned over 15%. Equities have certainly run hard, although sector-related, and averages don't really tell the whole story. Within all equity-based peer groups, over the past 12 months the worst-performing fund in the Top 20 funds returned 38.5%, with the Top 4 (all unsurprisingly resources-based) all exceeding 100%. The question for 2026 will be, can the equity party continue after 3 strong years, as that appears to be the recent cycle - three strong years followed by a negative one, such as 2022 and 2018, where all equity groups gave away at least a portion of the previous three years' gains? That's when diversification ticks in. For details of all the above, visit www.fundmonitors.com or directly to the Peer group comparison page https://www.fundmonitors.com/peergroups.php. We're approaching the end of the year, but Hedge Clippings is not quite ready to call it quits just yet. Given the tragedy and shock of Sunday's Bondi mass shooting, we were going to leave politics and interest rates alone this week, save to say that apparently the UK, US and others have issued a travel advisory to their citizens suggesting Australia is not a safe destination. Sadly. We never thought we'd hear that, but maybe we all need to work harder at being truly tolerant, irrespective of our views, background, religion or ethnicity, and understand how lucky we are - or should be - to live here. News | Insights Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management 10k Words | Equitable Investors November 2025 Performance News Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Insync Global Capital Aware Fund Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Argonaut Natural Resources Fund Insync Global Quality Equity Fund |
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12 Dec 2025 - Hedge Clippings |12 December 2025
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Hedge Clippings | 12 December 2025
News | Insights Expert Analysis of the RBA's December 9 Rate Decision News and Views: The impact of a steeper yield curve on global listed infrastructure | 4D Infrastructure Infrastructure in focus: The industrial heartland | Magellan Asset Management November 2025 Performance News 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund |
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5 Dec 2025 - Hedge Clippings | 05 December 2025
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Hedge Clippings | 05 December 2025 At the kind invitation of Conexus Financial, Hedge Clippings attended their Professional Planner Researcher Forum earlier this week. Held over two days in the Blue Mountains, apart from AFM, the event brought together a wide range of industry and sector participants (including research houses Lonsec, Morningstar, SQM, and Zenith), asset consultants, platform operators, advice groups, along with many others from the industry. Keynote speakers included ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland, industry luminary Graham Rich, and former gold medal-winning swimming legend Grant Hackett, now CEO of GDG, the listed owner of Lonsec and Evidentia. It's fair to say that the major and constantly recurring theme was the issue of conflict of interest (potential or real, depending on one's point of view) against the backdrop of the failure of Shield and First Guardian. However, rather than trying to cover the entire proceedings in Hedge Clippings, we have included selected links below to Professional Planners' own coverage of their event, and would recommend our readers explore further if interested. Commissioner Alan Kirkland, while defending the speed at which ASIC moved to shut down Shield and First Guardian, left no one in any doubt that they will not only be taking legal action against those they believe responsible, but will be following that up with new regulations, although non-specific on what those will be. One has to hope that it will be a practical and measured reaction, although we will have to wait and see in that regard. Insignia Financials' CEO Scott Hartley predicted a chaotic year ahead, thanks to Shield and First Guardian and the regulators' response. All present agreed this combination has potentially created a watershed moment for the research and advice sector, although depending on where one's loyalties, level of conflict of interest, or culpability lies, not everyone agreed on the solution, or in the case of conflict of interest, if they had one! Of interest was Morningstar's impending change to a "pay to play" model, just as ASIC is expected to increase scrutiny on the sector. Graham Rich summed up the issue of conflict nicely by reminding all present why some people rob banks ("it's simple, that's where the money is") while others were heard to comment "no conflict, no interest". We maintain the view that the "issuer pays" model is inherently conflicted and therefore open to potential abuse, even if not by the main participants, then by the bad actors in the distribution chain, including some, such as lead generators, that ASIC claims are outside the regulator's jurisdiction. For our part, we pointed out that while the consumer (advisors and platforms) might want a research report (even if they're not paying for it), the party paying, namely the fund manager, is more interested in the actual rating. Enough! Next week, the RBA meets for the last time this year, and we'll bring you our synopsis of the outcome, thanks to Renny Ellis and Nick Chaplin, from Arculus and Seed Funds Management, respectively. And for those more interested in trivia and comedy than conflicts of interest, today marks the 51st anniversary of the last Monty Python Flying Circus show back in 1974. In our opinion, it was, and remains one of the best, and most groundbreaking comedy series ever. News | Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com 10k Words | Equitable Investors Is travel becoming the new status symbol for Gen Z? | Insync Fund Managers October 2025 Performance News November 2025 Performance News Bennelong Australian Equities Fund |
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28 Nov 2025 - Hedge Clippings |28 November 2025
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Hedge Clippings | 28 November 2025 At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the chances of a rate cut in December - and probably well into 2026 - took another blow this week when the ABS released October's first full monthly CPI number. Even though the actual number for the month was flat, or just 0.3% seasonally adjusted, the 12-month result of 3.8% (or 3.9% seasonally adjusted) was a shocker. The RBA's preferred measure was a more reasonable, but still upward-trending, 3.3%. Stating the obvious, Treasurer Jim Chalmers accepted that the result was "higher than we would like" before trying to deflect the criticism by saying that it was significantly lower than when the government took office. However, having claimed that the economy (and inflation) had turned the corner just 5 months ago, the latest result was the fourth consecutive monthly rise since June's result of 1.9%. So looking forward to the RBA's decision on the 10th of December, one would have to assume "no change" at best, but one has to wonder if the board aren't regretting their most recent rate cut in August, and if it was premature - as suggested at the time by Hedge Clippings' expert fund managers Renny Ellis from Arculus, and Nick Chaplin from Seed Funds Management. We'll check back in with them next week to get their take on what they think is in store, including if they think October's flat result for the month is a glimmer of hope, either for homeowners or Jim Chalmers. Meanwhile in the US the gyrations in expectations for a cut by the FED continue, with financial markets pricing in an 84.9% probability of a cut of 0.25% in December according to CME's FedWatch tool, and backed up by data showing a combination of increasing ongoing jobless claims, at the same time as consumers' assessment of the labour market is continuing to fall, as shown in the chart below. Meanwhile, we received multiple responses and questions surrounding last week's table showing the relative performance of the Australian Small/Mid Cap sector as selected and filtered using FundMonitors' quant Star Ranking process, and the 10 of funds making up the top/bottom of the 97-member peer group. We have reproduced last week's table as a chart to emphasise the differences. Each fund in the top group was selected based on scoring 4 or 5 Stars consistently over all time periods. Conversely, the bottom group consistently scored only 1 or 2 Stars. Obviously, there was a logical difference in average annualised performance between the top and bottom 10 funds in each group, but the extent was surprising. Firstly, selecting (or avoiding) funds based on consistent past performance is key, even if past performance is no guarantee in the future. It is simply the best indicator available. Secondly, "average" is just that, and makes a case for passive or index investing. Thirdly, the market's return (and particularly the ASX Small Ordinaries Index) over the past 1, 2 and even 3 years has been anything but ordinary. Interestingly, performance was more important than risk. Filtering out top-performing funds that had drawdowns in negative years, such as 2022 or 2018, resulted in a significantly lower average return. News | Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Investment Perspectives: Maybe it's not "just like 1999" | Quay Global Investors Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management October 2025 Performance News Argonaut Natural Resources Fund Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Insync Global Quality Equity Fund |
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21 Nov 2025 - Hedge Clippings |21 November 2025
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Hedge Clippings | 21 November 2025 Reflecting on last week's edition of Hedge Clippings we're struck by the fact that we could simply reproduce the commentary of the chances of a rate cut both here and in the US, but with some small adjustments to the actual numbers. In the case of the RBA's next meeting, due on the 8th and 9th of December, we'd suggest the decision to hold has pretty much been set in stone, with the only chance of a cut being next Wednesday's release of October CPI numbers. While the RBA's minutes of the November meeting showed the decision to hold was unanimous, there were plenty of variables and possibilities about how inflation and the labour market might influence monetary policy. Hedging of bets (appropriate, given the meeting was held on Cup Day) was covered by consideration of multiple factors, uncertainties, resulting in "on the one hand" and then in the next sentence (or paragraph) "on the other hand". At least we know the Board explored all the options! Meanwhile, over in the US, last week we noted that the market's near overwhelming certainty (97%) of a rate cut just a month ago, had dropped to 50/50 based on a FactSet poll of market economists. This has now slipped further to being an outside chance at 22%, in spite of Trump's rhetoric and abuse directed at Jerome Powell, and the pressure he's trying to put him under. From what we've observed, Powell, to use the phrase coined by Maggie Thatcher way back in 1980, "is not for turning." As it is, Powell's term ends next May, so he probably feels he has a point to make regarding his independence, and the likelihood of his appointment for another (third) term is zilch, at least while Donald is in the White House. He might as well tough it out. The US Fed's next FOMC meeting is also in the second week of December, so on current projections, there'll be plenty of discussion and opinion, but not much action. Where there is action is in equity markets, with increasing calls from various well-known parties that the stretched valuations in the tech sector can't continue forever. Others of course maintain the usual mantra that "this boom is different" - and while it may be, the signs and psychology seem very similar. The following chart, courtesy of Callum Thomas of The Weekly Chartstorm, paints an eerie picture: News | Insights Manager Insights Video | Magellan Investment Partner The Housing Squeeze | Airlie Funds Management Staying the course | Canopy Investors October 2025 Performance News Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Bennelong Australian Equities Fund |
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14 Nov 2025 - Hedge Clippings |14 November 2025
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Hedge Clippings | 14 November 2025 Any lingering chances of a rate cut before Christmas - already unlikely given the uptick in the September quarter CPI to 3.2% - went out of the window yesterday when the October Labour Force figures were released, showing unemployment had dropped to 4.3% after rising 4.5% in September. The number of unemployed people dropped by 17,000, while the ranks of the employed increased by 42,000. If that's the case, there's no RBA meeting in January, so speculation will have to wait until February, but mid-2026 or even beyond is looking more likely. At the same time, the chances of a rate cut in the US - widely expected just a few weeks ago - also dropped to around 50/50 as a result of conflicting economic signals, thanks in part to the lack of data as a result of the US Government shutdown, a weakening labour market, and concerns about sticky inflation. There's time for the odds to move either way before the next FOMC meeting due on the 9th-10th of December. Meanwhile, among signs of stretched valuations and increasing equity market volatility - not only in the tech sector, but also amongst some local high-flying small-cap stocks we have taken a look at the performance of managed funds in the Australian Small to Mid-cap Peer Group. Not surprisingly, given the performance of the respective ASX200 and ASX Small Ordinaries indices, small caps outperformed large cap funds. The average return of all 97 funds in the small cap universe, broadly in line with the index over 1 - 5 years, will give encouragement to those who advocate passive investing via ETF's with their accompanying low fees. By filtering the list using AFM's Star Rankings, and only selecting funds with 4 or 5 Stars over 3 & 5 years, we created a portfolio of Top 10 funds which significantly outperformed the index. Using the same process to look at those funds with only 1 or 2 Stars, to come up with the bottom 10 funds, the result was equally predictable. Obviously, as in stock selection, manager selection is essential. Given that past performance cannot be guaranteed, how does one look at historical fund performance? We would suggest ignoring (or at least not jumping at) one-year performance. It can be misleading unless 3, 5 or 7 years is equally good. Taking 5 years covers a sufficient period, and then ensuring that the shorter-term performance is consistent. AFM's Star Ranking enables filtering on both performance and risk/volatility, and while not in-depth, it provides an initial, and significantly effective, and fast process to sort the wheat from the chaff and then allow concentrated analysis of the resulting funds. Of significant interest was the analysis of the funds at the bottom of the list based on recommended research ratings. In spite of these having a track record of being in the 3rd or 4th quartile performance over 1, 3, and 5 years, most of them came with "recommended" and in a couple of cases "highly recommended" research ratings from Zenith, Lonsec, Morningstar, or SQM. In fact, only one of them (yes, 1 out of 10) didn't have a rating. Which leads us to the question: What value can you put on (paid) research? News | Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Research house scrutiny needed | Fundmonitors.com Trip Insights: The US | 4D Infrastructure October 2025 Performance News Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund |
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7 Nov 2025 - Hedge Clippings |07 November 2025
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Hedge Clippings | 07 November 2025 The RBA's Balancing Act -- Up, Down, or Just Stuck? The RBA did exactly what everyone expected this week -- nothing. Rates stay put at 3.6 per cent, and for now that seems the safest course. But between the lines of Governor Michelle Bullock's press conference and the latest forecasts, the more interesting question isn't what the RBA did, but what it might do next. Depending on your perspective, that next move could just as easily be up as down. For one, inflation is refusing to behave. After more than a year of steady declines, the September quarter showed prices ticking higher again -- both in the annual headline number of +3.2%, and in the trimmed mean, which the RBA watches most closely, of 1% for the September quarter, and 3% for the past 12 months. At 3 per cent annualised, underlying inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and the RBA now doesn't expect it to fall back to its 2.5 per cent target midpoint until June 2027. That's a long time to be patient. Add to that a housing market that's rising again, consumers who appear to be rediscovering their wallets, and a labour market that's still "a little tight", and you've got the ingredients for inflation to stick around longer than anyone wants. Bullock herself made the point that monetary policy is "a little restrictive", but not much more than that. Credit is flowing freely, private demand is lifting, and the early effects of rate cuts earlier in the year are still working their way through. If inflation does prove stubborn, the argument for a nudge back up in rates will be hard to ignore -- especially if the RBA wants to protect its hard-won credibility. Then again, the RBA knows the economy is fragile. Unemployment has crept up to 4.5 per cent, job growth is slowing, and productivity -- the missing ingredient in every optimistic forecast -- remains weak. Wages growth has already eased from its peak, suggesting inflationary pressure from the labour market may be topping out. Add in a backdrop of global uncertainty, slowing trade, and the lingering drag of higher household debt servicing costs, puts the case for staying put -- or even easing -- but only once the data shows inflation back on a downward path. The release of reliable monthly CPI numbers (in other words, based on full data) for October, due out on November 25, will provide a clearer and a more up to date picture. Bullock's message was cautious rather than hawkish: the Board will watch the data and reassess each month. And the RBA's own central forecast still assumes the next technical move will be a rate cut -- albeit not until well into 2026. So, which way does the wind blow? For now, it's a stalemate. Inflation's too high to cut, but growth's too soft to hike. The RBA will no doubt sit tight in December, talking tough but acting cautiously, while hoping those "temporary factors" in the September CPI really do prove temporary. If inflation edges higher again in the months to come, the probability of a hike rises -- perhaps not by much, but enough to keep markets nervous. Conversely, if inflation steadies and the labour market continues to ease, rate cuts will creep back onto the horizon by mid-late next year. The RBA's next move could still go either way. But for households, businesses, and markets, the message is the same: don't expect relief soon, and don't rule out another bump if inflation refuses to play ball. In other words, rates might not be going up, but they're certainly not going anywhere fast. News | Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Fund manager ratings: Why due diligence is key, even on ratings houses | Fundmonitors.com Magellan Global Quarterly Update | Magellan Asset Management |
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