NEWS
7 Oct 2025 - When Regimes Shift, So Should Portfolios
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When Regimes Shift, So Should Portfolios East Coast Capital Management September 2025 When Regimes Shift, So Should Portfolios For decades, investors have leaned on a familiar comfort: when equities stumble, bonds will catch the fall. It's the failsafe that underpinned the traditional 60/40 portfolio. But as the AFR recently highlighted in the article How a Regime Change Threatens to Upend an Investor Failsafe, picking up on insightful work by NAB's Chief Economist Sally Auld, a regime change is threatening to upend this assumption. Rising rates, stubborn inflation, and shifting geopolitical sands have eroded the very diversification investors once relied upon. The danger isn't just financial; it's psychological. Anchored to the past, many investors cling to strategies that no longer work, exposing portfolios to concentration risk, blind spots in diversification, and costly behavioural biases. At ECCM, we see this moment differently. For systematic trend followers, regime change isn't a threat. It's opportunity. Concentration Risk: When Safety Nets Fail In 2022, both equities and bonds fell together, breaking the old model wide open. Investors discovered that a portfolio concentrated in traditional assets was far less diversified than it appeared. Trend following offers a different safety net. Because we trade across nearly 100 global futures markets, from equities and bonds to commodities and currencies, we aren't tied to one economic narrative. When bonds fail to diversify equities, currencies or commodities may step in. That breadth allows us to adapt as correlations change. Diversification Gaps: Beyond Equity Proxies Private equity, venture capital, and private credit are often pitched as "alternatives." Yet beneath the surface, they remain highly tied to equities, real estate, or interest rates. In a regime where those links break down, many investors find their "alts" weren't alternative at all. Our approach is different. By systematically trading markets as diverse as copper, feeder cattle, the Japanese yen, or U.S. treasuries, we access return streams truly distinct from traditional asset classes. That's real diversification: the kind that matters when regimes shift. Behavioural Biases: Fighting Human Nature When conditions change, investors often make the wrong move at the wrong time. Buying what feels cheap, selling what feels expensive, or clinging to past frameworks that no longer hold. These biases are magnified during regime shifts, when uncertainty drives emotional decisions. Trend following replaces instinct with process. Our rules cut losses early, let winners run, and respond to what markets are doing, not what we wish they would do. In other words, we don't argue with the wind; we set our sails to harness it. Why This Matters Now NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld is right: regime change is here. Inflation cycles, policy reversals, and geopolitical fragmentation are rewriting old assumptions. But investors don't need to be caught off guard. At ECCM, we believe the solution lies in systematic, adaptive strategies that thrive across regimes. For more than five years, our ECCM Systematic Trend Fund has delivered double-digit compound returns net of fees, with consistently low correlation to traditional assets. For investors, the choice is clear: continue relying on an old failsafe that may no longer work, or embrace strategies designed for the uncertainty ahead. Conclusion Our purpose is simple: to help investors protect and grow wealth in every market condition. Regime changes may unsettle the old order, but with discipline, breadth, and expertise, they can be transformed from threat to opportunity. At ECCM, we're ready to help wholesale clients build portfolios resilient enough to weather storms, and strong enough to thrive in what comes next. Funds operated by this manager: |
3 Oct 2025 - Equities can continue grinding higher if these risks remain contained
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Equities can continue grinding higher if these risks remain contained Pendal September 2025 5 minutes read time |
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Historically high valuations don't mean markets cannot keep going up. Crispin Murray explains what's driving markets - and the risks to watch for EQUITY markets are trading at historical highs - but can continue grinding higher if key risks facing the US economy remain contained, says Pendal's head of equities Crispin Murray in a new webinar. In the US, the S&P 500 is trading at about 23 times earnings, while the NASDAQ is around 28 times. "That's right at the high end of those historic ranges," says Murray in his latest Beyond The Numbers bi-annual ASX outlook. "It means markets are vulnerable if there is a dramatic change - whether it's earnings or the economy." That said, valuations are not uniform across the market. Excluding the five-biggest names reduces the S&P 500's PE to about 21 times - still high, but not extreme - while an equal�'weighted S&P 500 sits closer to 17 times, near historical averages, says Murray. "That's telling you that a large part of this US market is not excessively valued, and it's very much a concentration in those tech-related names." Meanwhile Australian shares powered 11 per cent higher over the six months to September, despite dipping into correction territory during that period as growth and liquidity outweighed policy uncertainty. (Scroll down for Crispin's take on ASX reporting season.) "It's certainly been a roller coaster ... that just highlights how the market is not particularly efficient in pricing," says Murray. "At Pendal, we believe you make money by anticipating change and taking advantage of a market that has become very focused on the short term." The risks to watch Risks to the current market rating include:
US government policy is at the core of the challenges. Lower immigration is curbing population growth - a key driver of GDP - while tariffs are feeding through to prices, with roughly 40 per cent of their impact already visible in consumer prices, says Murray. Meanwhile, monetary policy remains very tight. "What that means is the outlook for the economy is quite different today than where it was at the beginning of this year. "Looking into the fourth quarter, US growth is set to be below 1 per cent, inflation heading towards 4 per cent. "It does look a lot like stagflation - and clearly, if we did have that tipping point in the economy, earnings go down, and the market won't sustain its current multiple." Positive drivers remain in place Still, that scenario appears unlikely. "Corporate profitability continues to be good," points out Murray. "This is important, because it means companies still have the ability to invest, and it also means that they're less likely to undertake substantial job-cutting programs. "There's been enormous growth in the data centre and the power area of the economy - and that is helping prop up growth. "Consumers have seen their net worth rising dramatically over the last few years, and that's estimated to support growth by between half and 1 per cent. "And the final issue, which I think is probably the most important for now, is that the policy environment - which has been negative - is turning more constructive for growth. "Five rate cuts are priced into the market, fiscal stimulus from the budget Bill next year is estimated to be close to 1 per cent positive, and clearly the US has been set up to the electoral cycle and ensuring the economy is in good shape ahead of the mid-terms. "So, we don't think we do cross that tipping point, but it's clearly a major risk." Lessons from ASX reporting season In Australia, several themes stood out in the recent full-year ASX earnings season, including high levels of post-result volatility. Somewhat unusually, the best-performing sectors during reporting season were not correlated to earnings. Resources stocks were buoyed by optimism around China, while gold stocks lifted on concerns about government financing and central bank buying. On the negative side, earnings were a driver of underperformance - led by building materials and steel where ASX companies with exposure to the US suffered weakening demand. "Overall, earnings revisions weren't that exciting but when you dig down into it, most of the negatives were quite stock specific. "It was companies that were not necessarily executing as well as they should [or] those exposed to the US. "Outside of those names, though, most companies were either reasonably comfortable with the outlook or actually quite positive. "So generally speaking, I think the outlook for earnings is stable to slightly positive as a result of what we saw in that earnings season. "We still get mid-single-digit earnings growth, which means returns aren't exciting in Australia, but we still get a reasonable outcome." Data centres a good way to play AI One question on investors' minds is the prospect of the AI boom continuing. "There is scepticism that the money being spent is not generating a return - and it's something we're watching carefully," Murray says. "But one thing I'll emphasise is that the spend is real - and the people who are investing have the money. "These hyper scalers - Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle - have the financing to spend this money, and they believe they are getting a return. "Consumers are also increasingly using these products." Murray says the world has a shortage of "compute" - an industry term for the processing power, memory and storage needed to perform calculations and run applications - and this is an opportunity for Australia and particularly local data centres. "One of the challenges with investing and building data centres in Australia is access to land, access to capability, getting planning approval and getting power access. "These things mean that there is a structural under-supply of capacity in Australia, and the companies that can deliver it are very well positioned. "We still believe the market underestimates the confluence of not just AI demand, but the requirement for companies to move to the cloud to enable themselves to take part in utilising AI to run their businesses better." |
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Funds operated by this manager: Pendal MicroCap Opportunities Fund , Pendal Global Select Fund - Class R , Pendal Sustainable Australian Fixed Interest Fund - Class R , Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund , Pendal Horizon Sustainable Australian Share Fund , Regnan Credit Impact Trust Fund , Pendal Sustainable Australian Share Fund , Pendal Sustainable Balanced Fund - Class R , Pendal Multi-Asset Target Return Fund |
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This information has been prepared by Pendal Fund Services Limited (PFSL) ABN 13 161 249 332, AFSL No 431426 and is current as at December 8, 2021. PFSL is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the Pendal Multi-Asset Target Return Fund (Fund) ARSN: 623 987 968. A product disclosure statement (PDS) is available for the Fund and can be obtained by calling 1300 346 821 or visiting www.pendalgroup.com. The Target Market Determination (TMD) for the Fund is available at www.pendalgroup.com/ddo. You should obtain and consider the PDS and the TMD before deciding whether to acquire, continue to hold or dispose of units in the Fund. An investment in the Fund or any of the funds referred to in this web page is subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment of withdrawal proceeds and loss of income and principal invested. This information is for general purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It has been prepared without taking into account any recipient's personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their individual objectives, financial situation and needs. This information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation. The information may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither PFSL nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information. Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any projections are predictive only and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections. For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com |
2 Oct 2025 - Turning turbulence into triumph: 5 themes reshaping the investment landscape
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Turning turbulence into triumph: 5 themes reshaping the investment landscape Alphinity Investment Management September 2025 3 minutes read time |
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There are five powerful themes reshaping the investment landscape and driving corporate performance, creating winners and losers across global markets. The AI revolution stands as the defining narrative across global markets, driving fundamental shifts in capital allocation and valuation frameworks. But there are far more factors shaping the current investing landscape. Lower interest rate expectations and regulatory reform have reignited investor confidence, while US President Donald Trump's tariff agenda has injected supply chain uncertainty and continues to impact both corporate margins and consumer spending power. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are fuelling unprecedented defence spending and strategic consolidation as companies position for an increasingly fragmented world. These converging forces created a tale of two markets during the recent 2Q25 US earnings season. On the surface, the numbers appeared robust: over 80 per cent of US companies beat earnings expectations, guidance upgrades accelerated to double the 1Q25 rate, and consensus pushed earnings growth forecasts to an impressive 11 per cent and 13 per cent for 2025 and 2026, respectively. Yet beneath this veneer of strength lay a more complex reality. Earnings growth concentrated heavily within just three sectors and performance diverged sharply among industry peers. US 2Q25 Reporting Season - Strong overall growth of 12%, but largely driven by 3 sectors
Source: Bloomberg, 28 August 2025 This polarised landscape has created an unforgiving environment where companies skilfully navigating these themes are thriving, while those stumbling face harsh consequences. Five themes defining corporate performanceWe see these five powerful themes reshaping the investment landscape and these only further evolved and intensified through the latest US earnings cycle: 1. AI from speculation to implementation. While the mentions of AI remain near historic highs, business language has evolved from speculative possibilities to concrete implementation. Management teams are increasingly providing specific use cases rather than broad theoretical benefits, though most companies acknowledge they remain in the early stages of realising meaningful productivity gains. 2. Defence spending accelerates. Global defence expenditure has surged amid a pronounced strategic pivot towards deterrence capabilities and military modernisation. NATO member commitments are escalating from 2 per cent to a targeted 3.5-5 per cent of gross domestic product by 2030, exemplified by Germany's €500 billion defence infrastructure fund. Global defence spending is projected to expand at 9 per cent annually from a $2.5 trillion baseline. 3. Adapting to the tariff reality. The shift from uncertainty to operational reality has prompted comprehensive corporate responses across multiple fronts. Three-quarters of affected companies are actively restructuring supply chains and renegotiating supplier agreements, while over half are implementing customer price pass-throughs. Strategic import frontloading ahead of tariffs has complicated near-term financial interpretations. 4. Strategic M&A consolidation. Acquisition activity has intensified with a pronounced focus on strategic technology capabilities rather than traditional scale benefits. Well-capitalised companies with proven execution are pursuing disciplined transactions targeting AI competencies, industrial consolidation opportunities, and infrastructure enhancement despite broader economic uncertainties. 5. Consumers not out the woods yet. Despite some recovery from the prior quarter's sharp deterioration, consumer sentiment remains fragile with management guidance pointing to a challenging second-half outlook. Real consumer spending growth is projected at just 1 per cent annualised through H2 2025, driven by softer employment growth, tariff-induced inflation, and scheduled transfer payment reductions. This environment favours companies with defensive, non-discretionary revenue streams as price-sensitive consumers prioritise essential spending. Navigating complexityToday's investment landscape rewards execution excellence while punishing missteps, as these five forces - AI implementation, defence modernisation, tariff adaptation, strategic M&A, and consumer resilience - create clear winners and losers even within sectors. Success requires identifying companies that transform these forces into competitive advantages. As earnings dispersion widens and market patience diminishes, broad sector exposure is insufficient. Investors must focus on best-in-class operators with proven execution capabilities and structural competitive advantages that benefit from, rather than merely endure, the forces reshaping the global economy. |
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Funds operated by this manager: Alphinity Australian Share Fund , Alphinity Concentrated Australian Share Fund , Alphinity Sustainable Share Fund , Alphinity Global Equity Fund , Alphinity Global Sustainable Equity Fund This material has been prepared by Alphinity Investment Management ABN 12 140 833 709 AFSL 356 895 (Alphinity). It is general information only and is not intended to provide you with financial advice or take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. To the extent permitted by law, no liability is accepted for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. Any projections are based on assumptions which we believe are reasonable but are subject to change and should not be relied upon. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Neither any particular rate of return nor capital invested are guaranteed. |
1 Oct 2025 - Renewable energy investment: gloom or boom?
30 Sep 2025 - Trip Insights: Latin America
29 Sep 2025 - New Funds on Fundmonitors.com
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New Funds on FundMonitors.com |
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Below are some of the funds we've recently added to our database. Follow the links to view each fund's profile, where you'll have access to their offer documents, monthly reports, historical returns, performance analytics, rankings, research, platform availability, and news & insights. |
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26 Sep 2025 - Reporting season: volatility, value and the road ahead.
25 Sep 2025 - Manager Insights | East Coast Capital Management
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Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Simone Haslinger, Chief Executive Officer at East Coast Capital Management. Simon explains ECCM's fully systematic, data-driven trend-following approach across 80+ highly liquid global futures, designed to sidestep human bias and add low-correlated diversification to Australia-heavy portfolios. She highlights real-world examples from gold to feeder cattle, shares a strong multi-year track record, and contrasts liquid alternatives with illiquid private markets-making the case for a meaningful allocation to trend following.
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25 Sep 2025 - How are active ETFs reshaping the European investment market?
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Sustainable equities outlook: AI's transformative role in an evolving global economy Janus Henderson Investors September 2025 In research commissioned by Janus Henderson in mid-2025, 42% of professional investors -- collectively managing around US$800 billion -- indicated they expect the European active ETF market could grow toward US$1 trillion by 2030. How fast is the European active ETF market likely to grow?The European active ETF market surged past US$70 billion in assets under management this summer, more than doubling in size since the start of 2024. Active ETFs still only make up 2.7% of the European ETF market, but 74% of professional investors expect this share to hit 5% by the end of next year. Globally, the pace of growth in the active ETF sector is striking. In the first half of 2025, half of all ETFs launched globally were active according to industry consultancy ETFGI. Looking ahead, nearly 60% of survey respondents expect most ETF launches in 2026 to be active.
Why are "active core" ETFs proving popular?So far, adoption in Europe has been led by "active core" ETFs, which have a low tracking error to a benchmark and often focus on research enhanced index-based strategies. Most of the investors surveyed (72%) see these ETFs as replacement for their existing index-based passive exposures. In contrast, uptake of "high-conviction active" ETFs, built on deep fundamental research to develop more concentrated portfolios, has so far been slower. However, 66% of respondents see high conviction active ETFs as potential replacements for traditional mutual fund exposures, suggesting significant runway for growth. How are investor allocations to active ETFs evolving?When survey respondents were asked how they see fund allocations to active ETFs changing over the next 12 months, the vast majority (96%) noted that these will increase by between 25% to 75%. The anticipated increases suggest growing confidence in active management strategies. These strategies seek to capitalise on the expertise of fund managers to navigate complex market environments and achieve superior risk-adjusted returns. This trend underscores the growing importance of active ETFs in modern investment portfolios. As investors continue to seek ways to optimize their portfolios, active ETFs are poised to play a pivotal role in their investment strategies over the coming year. Why do fixed income and equities lead asset exposure via active ETFs?A significant 80% of respondents reported having exposure to fixed income via active ETFs while 58% of respondents use active equity ETFs. The survey results underscore a strategic utilisation of active ETFs for achieving diversified investment portfolios. The prominence of fixed income indicates a strong inclination towards stability and income, while the engagement with alternatives (55%) suggests openness to innovative investment avenues. These insights can inform future asset management strategies and active ETF product offerings, aligning them with investor preferences and market dynamics. Why is it important to align ETF offerings with investor needs?The most dynamic innovation in the ETF space is on the active side. But unlocking the full potential will require products that closely align with what investors are seeking. We believe a well-designed suite of insight-led active ETFs, offering both core and high-conviction exposures, has the potential to bring the best of active management to investors with the efficiency and liquidity of the ETF structure. While growth expectations are strong, challenges remain. These include liquidity constraints in certain asset classes, potential tracking error, and whether high-conviction active strategies can consistently justify higher fees compared with passive or traditional active funds. Disclaimer: This article is based on information available as of mid-2025. The views expressed are those of the original author and do not necessarily reflect the views of FundMonitors.com. It is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research or seek professional advice before making investment decisions. |
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Funds operated by this manager: Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest Fund , Janus Henderson Conservative Fixed Interest Fund , Janus Henderson Diversified Credit Fund , Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund , Janus Henderson Tactical Income Fund , Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest Fund - Institutional , Janus Henderson Conservative Fixed Interest Fund - Institutional , Janus Henderson Cash Fund - Institutional , Janus Henderson Global Multi-Strategy Fund , Janus Henderson Global Sustainable Equity Fund , Janus Henderson Sustainable Credit Fund , Janus Henderson Net Zero Transition Resources Fund Source: Janus Henderson Investors commissioned the market research company Pureprofile to interview 100 professional investors working for pension funds, family offices, wealth managers, insurance asset managers in the UK, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, France, Sweden, Norway and Finland with a total of US$781.5 billion assets under management. The research was conducted in June 2025. Active investing: An investment management approach where a fund manager actively aims to outperform or beat a specific index or benchmark through research, analysis, and the investment choices they make. The opposite of passive investing. Exchange traded fund (ETF): A security that tracks an index, sector, commodity, or pool of assets (such as an index fund). ETFs trade like an equity on a stock exchange and experience price changes as the underlying assets move up and down in price. ETFs typically have higher daily liquidity and lower fees than actively-managed funds All opinions and estimates in this information are subject to change without notice and are the views of the author at the time of publication. Janus Henderson is not under any obligation to update this information to the extent that it is or becomes out of date or incorrect. The information herein shall not in any way constitute advice or an invitation to invest. It is solely for information purposes and subject to change without notice. This information does not purport to be a comprehensive statement or description of any markets or securities referred to within. Any references to individual securities do not constitute a securities recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Whilst Janus Henderson believe that the information is correct at the date of publication, no warranty or representation is given to this effect and no responsibility can be accepted by Janus Henderson to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. |
