NEWS
21 Dec 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 21 December 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 21 December 2023
News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management The 'low emissions' megatrend: Is it too early to invest in green hydrogen? | Insync Fund Managers Investment Perspectives: 12 surprising charts for your Christmas stocking | Quay Global Investors November 2023 Performance News Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Insync Global Capital Aware Fund Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) |
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15 Dec 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 15 December 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 15 December 2023 No wonder there's a property crisis - and it's not just because in the 12 months to 30 June Australia recorded a net annual gain of 518,000 people, with migrant arrivals up 73% year on year to 737,000. Temporary visa holders numbered 554,000, while departures decreased marginally by 2% to 219,000. To what extent this represents a catch-up post COVID remains to be seen, but with a population of just 26 million this represents a huge influx - and a massive supply/demand imbalance when it comes to housing and infrastructure. Australia's economy has always benefited from migration, and with 910,000 jobs created over the last two years, and historically low unemployment, there's nothing to fear from the numbers. Australia needs migrants to fill job vacancies, and to maintain the record of growth. As the federal government announced this week, going forward the "mix" of migrants is to change, although we're not confident that when they announce the details they'll get the balance right. Being politicians, there's always the risk they'll make decisions based on the next election, rather than what's best for the long term economic and social benefit of the country as a whole. Even though unemployment inched up by 0.1% in November to 3.9%, with 19,000 joining their ranks, employment increased by 61,000 people, resulting in the employment to population ratio reaching a record high of 64.6%, and the participation rate also at an all time high of 67.2%. But back to property... All too often Hedge Clippings' focus is on interest rates and inflation. However, in spite of the Doomsday merchants and some so-called property experts predicting a 20% to 30% fall in property prices and widespread mortgagee sales as the RBA jacked up interest rates, this hasn't occurred. Prices have remained strong. One reason - and possibly the major one - for the property crisis in Australia is simply the imbalance between supply and demand - economics 101. According to Brook Monahan of Mosaic Property Group, who operates a highly successful building/development business in SE Queensland, Australia wide in the year to March 2023, homes were needed for an additional 226,000 households. Only 170,000 were completed. Next year is worse, with a forecast of just 153,000 new homes completed. As a nation, Australia has never completed more than 191,000 new homes, and the ten year average is 173,000. The target requirement is 240,000. In other words, we're simply going backwards, and cost pressures and lack of effective decision making by governments of all persuasions is not going to help. As Monahan continues, until there is action on a policy front (because winding back migration is not the solution), the current housing shortage will continue to drive rents higher still, and worsen housing affordability. Forecast reductions in interest rates towards the end of 2024 on the back of falling inflation won't help, although it will help those with existing mortgages. And so as we end 2023 and look both backwards and forward, we'd have to say it's been a challenging year, and next year is likely to be the same. Meanwhile, Hedge Clippings will be taking a short, but (we think) well earned break, so this will be the last edition before we return in the New Year. Until then, we'd like to thank you for your time and attention over the past year, and wish you and your family a Happy Christmas, and a safe, healthy and prosperous New Year. News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com The real risk of wildfires to US infrastructure investors | 4D Infrastructure Investing Essentials: Diversification - The shield against investment volatility | Bennelong Funds Management November 2023 Performance News Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund |
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8 Dec 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 08 December 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 08 December 2023 There may have been a change at the head of the Reserve Bank board table, but whoever writes the Governor's statement and media release following the meeting is stuck in a groove. Apart from the absence of Philip Lowe's favourite "narrow path" term, the perils of inflation and the necessity to curb it are pretty much a copy and paste from prior months, which we suppose is inevitable. News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Investment Insights: The ups, the downs, and the future of the economic cycle | Touchstone Asset Management The weight loss drug shaping-up as a gamechanger | Magellan Asset Management November 2023 Performance News Argonaut Natural Resources Fund Bennelong Australian Equities Fund Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy |
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1 Dec 2023 - Hedge Clippings |01 December 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 01 December 2023 Just as the new RBA Governor Michele Bullock made her mark on monetary policy by increasing rates to 4.35%, (the thirteenth rise since May 2022) so the CPI numbers for the September quarter were released, coming in at 1.2%, and a 12 month figure of 5.4%, showing inflation continues to decline from the peak of 6.8% reached last December. The question now for Bullock will be the ongoing speed of further falls, as that seemed to be one of her primary reasons for the RBA's latest rise. In spite of the better than expected CPI numbers, it's too early to speculate on any relief for home owners in the near term. Both Bullock and her predecessor Philip Lowe were at pains to point out that it was the stubborn persistence of inflation which was one of their primary concerns, but one also gets the impression that Lowe was prepared to tread his "narrow path" more patiently than his successor. Time will tell, but we suspect the final 2-3% reduction in inflation required to get it back to the RBA's desired range of 2-3% is going to prove the most difficult. Drilling down into the CPI numbers shows that the RBA's efforts to date seem to be having the desired effect on discretionary spending, but not on the unavoidables: Against the overall increase of 1.2%, transport topped the list at 3.2%, followed by housing at 2.2%, and communications at 2.1%. On the other side of the ledger, discretionary items such as recreation and culture rose only 0.2%, while furnishing and household goods fell by 0.8%. The latter would seem to reinforce Gerry Harvey's recent comments that things are tough in retail land, and given the blanket discounting over "Black Friday", that might continue through to the December results in due course. Michele Bullock's comments that interest rates were a necessary, but blunt instrument against inflation were one issue - the other being they have a variable "lag" time to take effect, in addition to some of the above items being unavoidable. Interestingly, (or possibly of self interest to Hedge Clippings) Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages brought the average down, only rising 0.6%, while Alcohol had the opposite effect, rising 1.4%! On the lagging side mortgage costs don't impact the entire population, and impact those with mortgages to different degrees. As such we won't know if the most recent rise was a step too far, or was a "goldilocks" move - about just right - until it is either too late, or just part of history. News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com 10k Words | November 2023 | Equitable Investors Acceleration of innovation now spells danger for investors | Insync Fund Managers Events & Webinars October 2023 Performance News Insync Global Capital Aware Fund Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund |
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24 Nov 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 24 November 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 24 November 2023 As much as we'd like to move on from discussing inflation in Hedge Clippings each week, the reality is that while lower than it was, it will be some time before the genie is safely back in the bottle. And while that's the case, there's little chance of interest rates falling, either locally or offshore in the US, UK or Europe. In the US there were hopes that they might consider easing sooner rather than later, but more recent minutes from the Federal Reserve's November meeting indicate a distinct unwillingness to do so, fearing that pivoting to a downward trend in rates too soon would potentially waste the hard won success to date. If anything the Fed warned rates could still rise if required, and meanwhile they'd "proceed carefully" before moving. In the UK - where inflation has been as high as 11% and is now back down to 4.6% - the message is the same. The UK kept rates steady at 5.25% for the second time following 14 consecutive hikes, but BoE governor Andrew Bailey was clear that he wasn't going to be rushed into cuts, saying the fear of persistent inflation was too great to risk doing so. Equally ECB president Christine Lagarde echoed those thoughts. Meanwhile at home freshly appointed RBA governor Michele Bullock scotched any thoughts that the fight had been won, even singling out dentists and hairdressers as jumping on the price rise bandwagon and pushing up inflation in the services sector. While unlikely that there'll be a further rate rise in December, and with no RBA meeting in January, it doesn't rule out yet another move upward in February or March. If anything Bullock is sounding more hawkish than Philip Lowe, possibly because she doesn't have his legacy of saying rates wouldn't rise until 2024. As Bullock noted in her speech to economists during the week, interest rates are a "blunt instrument" when it comes to taming inflation, but it's also pretty much the only instrument she has. And as we've noted before, that instrument strikes those least able to cope, assuming they have a mortgage. What hasn't happened yet - and we don't believe it will - is that increased mortgage rates will lead to an increase in arrears, and subsequently forced sales and falling house prices. That scenario would only be predicated on a full scale recession, which we also think unlikely. Even without a mortgage, rental rates are also increasing as investors strive to offset increased repayments, added to which the overall housing shortage is being magnified by short terms rentals via the likes of Airbnb, and high levels of immigration. So the outlook remains for inflation to remain front and centre, and therefore on our weekly agenda, for some time to come. Meanwhile, this week marked a few milestones and anniversaries - the most poignant one probably being the assassination of President Kennedy in Dallas 60 years ago last Wednesday. Once known by all those old enough to remember where they were when they heard the news, there's now a whole generation for whom the death of JFK is just a page in the history books. More up to date, and still on the subject of US presidents, three years ago today the formal transition to Joe Biden's administration began - so that's three years of Donald Trump claiming he didn't lose the election. You can't say he isn't persistent! News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Investment Perspectives: What does 'higher for longer' mean for real estate? | Quay Global Investors Stock Story: ResMed | Airlie Funds Management Events & Webinars October 2023 Performance News Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) |
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17 Nov 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 17 November 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 17 November 2023 No sooner had the RBA hiked interest rates for the 13th time (unlucky for some) to 4.35% in the face of falling - but persistently higher than they'd like - inflation, than the US posts some encouraging news for their October inflation figure of 0.0% month on month, taking the 12 month number to 3.2%, down from 3.7% the previous month, both numbers being 0.1% below expectations. Core CPI increased 0.2% month on month, and 4.2% over 12 months, again below the market's expectations. Much of the drop was the result of falls in energy prices, with notoriously volatile fuel prices falling, in spite of increased global tensions. In any event, expectations of a rate hike in the US evaporated, hitting the US$, and boosting the little Au$$ie battler. That's all well and good for the US, and will of course give the RBA some encouragement that the worst is over, at least globally. However, the RBA board wouldn't have been as happy with the inflationary outlook based on the release of Australian wage data, which grew 1.3% over the September quarter, the largest increase in the 26 year history of the ABS Wage Price Index, which was also higher than the local inflation rate of 1.2% over the same period. In other words, wages grew faster than inflation at a time when the RBA is trying to dampen demand, not fuel it. Then along come employment figures for October at 3.7%, flat on trend terms, and up slightly seasonally adjusted. Prior to being appointed to the top job at the RBA Michele Bullock indicated an unemployment rate of 4.5% would be required to tame the inflation dragon, but maybe as that didn't appear to be eventuating she felt the need to cause pain elsewhere? Either way, and as we've noted before ad nauseam, both unemployment and interest rates only affect a proportion of the population, and in the case of interest rates, unevenly at that. Added to which is the lagging effect of higher mortgage rates, and the fact that higher interest rates benefit a different group of consumers, generally those less impacted by inflation to boot! We're in agreement with the RBA that inflation is far too persistent, and not only for the sake of the economy, and the welfare of those most affected, and least able to bear the cost. On a purely selfish level, in addition to seeing increases of 20 to 25% in the price of our daily caffeine fix, we're sick of writing about it every Friday! In times gone by there were political characters who were easy targets for Hedge Clippings' brand of cheap humour, or local or global political issues to have a crack at. The world is sadly in far too serious a place for that kind of stuff, and opinions on both sides are too entrenched, and intolerant, to venture onto that stage, or soap-box. Where's Scomo, Boris, or even The Donald when you're looking for a little light-hearted fun and cynicism to end the week? The answer of course is that Donald hasn't really gone, he's just gearing up for another tilt at the White House, which isn't looking as far fetched as it might have been four or five years ago! News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management Investing in communication towers | Magellan Asset Management Events & Webinars October 2023 Performance News Bennelong Australian Equities Fund Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund |
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10 Nov 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 10 November 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 10 November 2023 Maybe Hedge Clippings' punt last week that Tuesday's RBA board meeting would result in another pause was wishful thinking. It was certainly out of step with the majority of well respected economists, even if Mark Bouris agreed with our view, which perhaps should have been a warning in itself. The RBA's November Statement on Monetary Policy, released earlier today, was pretty clear on their thinking: A continuation of the bank's determination that the current level of inflation is not only too high, but the reduction to the Board's target of 2-3% must be hastened. At this stage, the bank's forecast is that inflation (currently 5.4%) will be around 3.5% in a year's time, and "a little below" 3% by the end of 2025. Assuming - possibly incorrectly - that monetary policy is being set to meet the forecasts - in other words that the forecast is also the RBA's target - then the question is when or if the economic "tipping point" will occur? At what point will higher interest rates have a sufficient impact on consumer spending to reduce inflation? And at what risk to the economy in the form of a recession? While nearly everyone with a mortgage - at least those on variable rates or about to come off a fixed rate - will be affected by Tuesday's decision, it's only about 35% of the total housing market of 10.3 million homes, with a further 30% of homes rented, presumably with a fair proportion of the latter also impacted by higher rates. Much is written about the "mortgage cliff" but only 30% of those mortgages are fixed, and although well up on the levels of 30 years ago, it is still only going to affect a minority of the total. Added to the fact that only more recent loan limits are "maxed out" and it emphasises the blunt instrument that the RBA has in monetary policy when tackling inflation, and its many and varied causes - all out of the RBA's control. Retired RBA governor Philip Lowe was fond of using the "narrow path" analogy in his post meeting statements, but Michele Bullock studiously avoided the phrase, although sticking to the central message that inflation is too high, too persistent, and therefore falling too slowly. Bullock's preferred theme - if repetition of a single word is a guide - is "uncertainty", mentioned four times in the penultimate paragraph of her post meeting (pre-cup) statement. Multiple uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of the previous 12 rate rises on business and the economy in general, and wages and employment in particular. Uncertainty over the outlook for household consumption, uncertainty over the implications of the conflict in Gaza, and uncertainty over the outlook for the Chinese economy. Even with all that uncertainty, the Board remains certain about one thing: "A determination to return inflation to target, and to do whatever is necessary to achieve that outcome." Which means that if the tipping point has not yet been reached, there could be further rate rises around the corner. Over in the US, while the Trump circus is playing out in a New York courtroom, the Fed's Jerome Powell is also indicating a willingness to hike rates beyond their current 22 year high at their next meeting due in December. This is in spite of the fact that US inflation came in at 3.7% year on year in September, well down from its recent high of 9.06% in June 2022, and with forecasts of further reductions to come, thanks to falling oil prices when October's figure is released next Tuesday. Meanwhile in China, CPI fell by 0.2%, mainly on the back of food prices falling 4%, particularly pork, the price of which has fallen over 30% y-o-y. Good on "handsome boy" Albo for his efforts and in helping Aussie lobsters and wine back on the menu, but we suspect while it will help our exports, they're not a sufficiently staple item on the shopping list of most of the population of 1.425 billion to impact China's inflation. News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com The Rise of Meta: AI, Innovation, and Sustainable Growth | Insync Fund Managers Global Matters: Extreme weather risks and their impact on investors | 4D Infrastructure Events & Webinars October 2023 Performance News
4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Argonaut Natural Resources Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) |
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3 Nov 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 03 November 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 03 November 2023 While most punters will focus on the result of the Melbourne Cup just after 3 pm next Tuesday, homeowners with a mortgage will be more interested in the outcome of the RBA's November board meeting, due half an hour earlier at 2:30. Given most Australians' obsession with the Cup, it's unlikely many will wait until after the RBA's announcement to decide if they should have a bet or not, but given all four of the big banks are tipping a rate rise, they can probably make their decision beforehand. In addition, the queues at the TAB make a last minute bet difficult to place anyway. It will be too late for Michele Bullock and her board colleagues to take on board, but it will be interesting to see if the number or value of wagers drop in the face of a general tightening of belts in mortgage land. As we mentioned last week, Hedge Clippings is not convinced there will be a rise of 0.25%, in spite of the RBA increasing their forecast for inflation in the December quarter to 4.5%. They're still of the view that inflation will fall to 3.3% by the end of 2024, and further to 2.9% by the end of 2025, back (just) within their target range of 2-3%. The quarterly inflation figure of 5.4% released by the ABS last week showed a continuing downward trend from last December's peak of 7.8%, in spite of an uptick in September's monthly figure to 5.6%. The reason behind our lack of conviction lies in the price of oil, and volatility of the price of petrol at the pump, with automotive fuel jumping 7.2% in the September quarter, as outlined in this piece from the Conversation. Had the price of fuel stayed constant (we wish!) over the quarter, September's quarterly inflation would have been 5.1% rather than 5.4%. And given the necessity for many Australians of filling up at the pump, and the flow-on effects via transport costs contributing to the supply chain, fuel's impact on discretionary spending is likely to dampen consumer demand across the board. While we may be out of step with the expectations of the big four banks, there's no doubt rates are going to stay higher for longer - as they are in the US, with the Federal Reserve keeping rates on hold this week. We're certainly better off than the UK, where inflation is still stubbornly high at 6.7%, having hit a 41 year peak of 11.1% in October 2022. However, things can't be all bad in the Old Dart, as evidenced by this snippet we came across this week: "The latest figures from the Department for the Environment and Rural Affairs (Defra) show that grapes currently account for 36% of England's soft fruit crop. In England and Wales, vine planting has increased 74% to 4,300 hectares in the last five years, and is expected to rise to a total of 7,600 hectares by 2032 - yielding a potential 24.7 million bottles of wine annually." So no more jumping in the car, nipping across the channel, and filling the boot up with cases of French plonk. However, a trip down the A3 or M4 doesn't quite have the same allure. Changing tack: For those interested in trend following and systematic trading, Hedge Clippings has been offered a strictly limited number of spaces to a presentation and launch of the "Aussie Turtles" systematic trend following investment style, where a panel including Jerry Parker from Chesapeake Capital, one of the original Turtle Traders will speak to the "Turtles Experiment" which aimed to determine whether trading is a skill that can be learned, or requires innate talent. The event is sponsored by East Coast Capital Management, and being held in Double Bay in Sydney on Thursday, 16 November 2023, from 6.00pm to 8.30pm, and will include refreshments. As above, space is strictly limited. For further details, please register your interest to attend here. News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com The growth thematics immune to economic volatility | 4D Infrastructure Global Quarterly Update | Magellan Asset Management Events & Webinars |
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27 Oct 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 27 October 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 27 October 2023 Australia's latest inflation data was released on Wednesday, triggering forecasts from three of the big four banks, and a multitude of other economists, for a Melbourne Cup rate rise. Depending on one's point of view, the numbers themselves weren't completely convincing: CPI rose 1.2% in the September quarter, up from 0.8% from June's number, but as Michelle Marquardt, the ABS head of prices statistics noted, the September's number continued to be lower than those seen in 2022. The problem lies in the volatility of the quarterly figures, exaggerated by the price of fuel in particular, which rose 7.2% following two consecutive quarters where the cost of filling up at the pump fell. (If you hadn't noticed fuel costs have risen 20% over the past 12 months.) So September's number of 1.2%, whilst higher than June's 0.8%, was still below the March figure of 1.4%, and still well down from all four quarters in 2022, which averaged 1.9% and led to a year end annual rate of 7.8%. Since that peak, the annualised number has been steadily falling, and is now down to 5.4% as shown below: Source: ABS.gov.au Cue Michele Bullock fronting the Senate estimates committee the following day, admitting that while slightly higher than the bank had been expecting, the numbers were pretty much "where we thought it would come out, given the information we've come into since then." The concern the RBA governor pointed to was in services inflation - electricity, rents and wages - which although "declining is still higher than it should be, and tends to be persistent." Therein lies the problem - although falling, inflation is staying higher than the December forecast of 4.1%, and still a long way from the RBA's target of 2-3%. Bullock's dilemma (if she has one) is not only the volatility of the monthly numbers, but the persistence of higher inflation, which may lead to a vicious cycle of consumers' inflationary expectations adjusting upwards. If she increases rates on Cup day, the effect won't be evenly felt, and the risk of putting a dent in the economy remains - which is not what the "narrow path" journey is all about. Our concern is to what extent would a further 0.25% to 4.35% prove to be an economic "tipping point"? We haven't discounted the RBA leaving rates where they are, or possibly giving them a nudge by 0.15%. Time will tell. Albo, fresh from his Voice defeat, headed off to the US to be welcomed by a 21 gun salute, and as guest of honour at a black tie dinner for 300 at the White House, hosted by Joe Biden, who was technically wearing "a" black tie, just not a penguin suit and bow tie. Who would have thought Albo would be keeping Australia's sartorial standards up on the world stage? News & Insights Investment Perspectives: The housing fate from interest rates | Quay Global Investors Market Update | Australian Secure Capital Fund September 2023 Performance News 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Insync Global Capital Aware Fund Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Insync Global Quality Equity Fund Events & Webinars |
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20 Oct 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 20 October 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 20 October 2023 Last week Hedge Clippings noted that "Central Bank Speak" involves the specialised art of covering all bases and potential outcomes, whilst not actually confirming what you're really thinking, or going to do. The exception of course is when they actually raise or cut rates, in which case they refer you back to their previous comments, and basically say "I told you so", or "don't say we didn't warn you." So while US markets are tossing up between rates staying as they are, or possibly rising one more time, Jerome Powell's overnight comment that "a range of uncertainties, both old and new complicate our task of balancing the risk of tightening monetary policy too much, against the risk of tightening too little" didn't actually say anything we didn't know, except they haven't made their mind up yet. To be fair to Powell, and the RBA's Michele Bullock if it comes to that, the US economy is evenly poised, balanced between trying to re-bottle inflation to get it back to the 2% target, maintaining sufficient growth and employment, and without risking "unnecessary harm to the economy" as he puts it. Powell's problem is that achieving both is a very difficult balancing act. The market is currently betting on the Fed holding the line at their upcoming meeting at the end of this month, but has no such certainty looking forward to December. Back home, the ABS released their Australian labour force figures, and on the surface, little had changed. Unemployment decreased fractionally on seasonally adjusted terms to 3.6%, with total employment edging up by just 6,600 but with full-time jobs decreasing by 39,900 offset by part-time jobs increasing by 46,500. The RBA wouldn't have been too pleased with those numbers in their efforts to return the cash rate to their preferred 2-3% target band, having previously indicated that unemployment around 4.5% is necessary to cool the economy, and thereby tame inflation. Next week's September CPI figure, due on Wednesday, followed by PPI results on Friday, will give a clearer picture of the outlook. Meanwhile, the minutes of the RBA's September meeting revealed the board didn't consider a rate cut as an option - it was either leave rates as they are, or increase them by 0.25%. That's likely to be the case again at their next meeting due on Cup Day. At this stage, we'd still favour an extension of the "pause" but wouldn't want to bet the house on it. As the previous governor was keen to say, "it's a very narrow path." News & Insights 10k Words | October 2023 | Equitable Investors Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management September 2023 Performance News Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) |
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