NEWS
11 Jun 2025 - Canopy Highlights - insights from our global research
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Canopy Highlights - insights from our global research Canopy Investors May 2025 With quarterly results now in for most of the companies we follow, we've compiled the latest Canopy Highlights-insights from our global research. Just as investors have faced heightened volatility, business leaders are navigating a similarly complex environment. According to The New York Times and FactSet, 87% of corporate earnings calls this season referenced the word "uncertainty," up from 38% in the previous three months-a theme echoed by many of the companies we look at. Tariffs front and centre While many businesses had already begun diversifying manufacturing and sourcing in response to US tariffs introduced during the previous Trump administration, renewed uncertainty is accelerating those efforts. Take Floor & Décor, a US hard surface flooring retailer: in 2018, ~50% of its products were sourced from China. By the end of FY25, that figure is expected to fall to the low- to mid-single-digits, though most of its sourcing will remain outside the US. Another example is Yeti, which sells drinkware and coolers. While ~80% of its drinkware was produced in China as at the end of FY24, it is targeting a reduction to ~10% by the end of FY25, with most of that capacity being relocated elsewhere in Asia. However, for many, shifting production remains impractical, with most companies indicating plans to pass on tariffs through price increases. Bigger ripple effects? The larger impacts may be indirect: falling consumer confidence, delayed capital decisions, and a general pause in big-ticket spending were cited across sectors-from global luxury to US industrial spending to housing. Much of this stems from a lack of US policy certainty and high interest rates. As Assa Abloy, a global supplier of locks and doors put it: "The challenge with the tariffs is a little bit that it changes every day...So, the answer I can give you is only the answer as it is today, as the tariffs stand...this morning, because perhaps they change this afternoon". Some tailwinds too Not all companies are struggling. Discount retailer Dollar General is benefitting from trade-down by lower-income consumers. Fixed income trading platform MarketAxess is seeing gains from increased market volatility, with average daily credit trading volumes up >30% in April-an improvement from flat growth in the two quarters to March. And some international companies we've spoken with have cited rising anti-American sentiment as a potential commercial tailwind.
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10 Jun 2025 - Australian Secure Capital Fund - Market Update
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Australian Secure Capital Fund - Market Update Australian Secure Capital Fund May 2025 National home values rose for the third month in a row, with CoreLogic's Home Value Index up 0.3% in April, adding roughly $2,720 to the median Australian dwelling. Growth was recorded across all capital cities, though the pace slowed slightly from March. While mid-sized capitals and regional markets led the charge, Sydney and Melbourne remain below previous highs. Annual growth eased to 3.2%, reflecting last year's broader slowdown despite a recent rebound since February's rate cut. Key Highlights:
Property Values
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6 Jun 2025 - Trump's first 100 days: a new economic regime takes shape
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Trump's first 100 days: a new economic regime takes shape Nikko Asset Management May 2025 Tariffs bring global uncertaintyDonald Trump's second term in office has now passed the symbolic 100-day mark, and his most significant action this far was his announcement of global tariffs on 2 April. Trump's "Liberation Day" triggered a market sell-off in anticipation of a global supply shock, but after he subsequently announced a 90-day pause, global equity indices recovered, ending the month broadly where they began. The pause should give the US administration time to negotiate with its closest allies, but if no meaningful progress is made, particularly with countries like South Korea and Japan, by the end of May, it could signal a prolonged impasse. That would reinforce concerns that this is not simply a short-term negotiating tactic, but the beginning of a more entrenched trade rift. Therefore, while investors who avoided panic selling in April may have found themselves emerging relatively unscathed, the tariff shock continues to justify a higher risk premium across global equities. US economic concerns at the foreThis not the first time the world has faced a severe supply chain disruption. But unlike the pandemic, for example, the current shock is self-inflicted, driven by Trump's idiosyncratic approach to trade policy rather than external forces. We're already starting to see the effects ripple through the US economy. Logistics data shows a sharp drop in goods moving from China to the US. Container bookings are significantly lower than a year ago. The Port of Los Angeles, the main entry point for Chinese goods, expects arrivals in early May to be down by a third. Airfreight bookings are also falling. According to Vizion, container bookings for standard 20-foot boxes from China to the US were 45% lower year-on-year by mid-April. As John Denton of the International Chamber of Commerce noted, many businesses are delaying decisions while they wait to see whether the US and China can reach a deal. China-US relations remain keyAs discussed last year, Trump's approach to tariffs has been to target China most aggressively. But political headwinds may force him to take a more conciliatory approach than he would like. With mid-term elections in November 2026, the Republican Party needs a quick win with allies, ideally leading markets towards new highs before then. China's President Xi Jinping, of course, faces no such political pressure. The tariff strategy appears designed to create what economists might call a "separating equilibrium", pushing allies to side with the US in isolating China, while also testing China's response. Trump's approach leaves little room for Xi to save face, effectively forcing Beijing into tit-for-tat measures. That lack of an off-ramp increases the risk of a drawn-out standoff, with economic data releases ratcheting up the pressure. Looking ahead, we expect more anecdotal evidence of supply disruption to emerge by the end of May, followed by harder economic data shortly after. The potential inflationary effect is notable. Based on trade volumes of around USD 425 billion and tariff rates that could eventually settle around 50%, we estimate the direct impact on US inflation could be around 1 percentage point, assuming no offsetting effects. Depending on how much of the cost is absorbed by importers and exporters, the range could be anywhere from 30 to 70 basis points. In short, the trade war's economic effects are already becoming visible. The longer it persists, the greater the risk that it drags on US growth and complicates the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s task of managing inflation expectations. Threats to Federal Reserve impartiality: are Powell's days numbered?Early in his second term, Trump appeared to be testing the legal ground for removing the Fed Chair Jerome Powell before the end of his term, with suggestions he could do so without needing to show cause. Trump has recently softened his public stance on Powell, but questions remain over future Fed independence. At the heart of this issue is Wilkins v. United States, a Supreme Court case expected to be decided in June. The case could effectively challenge the precedent set by Humphrey's Executor in 1935, which limits a president's ability to remove the heads of independent agencies without cause. Should the Supreme Court side with the Trump administration, it could strip away key legal protections that shield the Fed Chair from political interference. Even if the court offers a more limited ruling, the legal precedent could still be weakened, clearing the way for greater executive control over independent agencies. In the most extreme outcome, Trump would have the authority to dismiss Powell, or any other agency head, at will. Such a move would undermine the institutional integrity of the Fed and draw comparisons to the erosion of central bank independence seen in countries like Turkey, where politically driven monetary policy has contributed to economic instability. Powell's current term ends in May 2026, and it is unlikely he will be reappointed, and his successor could be announced well before then. Trump will likely nominate a more dovish candidate willing to cut rates aggressively in support of his policy agenda. This puts the Fed in a difficult position. Even if political pressure builds to ease policy, the Fed must remain vigilant about the risk of re-accelerating inflation. A premature or politically motivated pivot could risk repeating the mistakes of the 1970s, when monetary policy missteps allowed inflation to spiral. For now, this uncertainty may push the Fed to maintain its current pause for longer, as it waits for greater clarity on both inflation and the political landscape. Has the tariff risk premium already been priced in?In fixed income markets, some degree of tariff-related risk premium has already been priced into the long end of the US rates curve. However, when comparing US long-term yields with those of other developed markets, the relative value is starting to look more compelling. Global bond market scepticism, often described as bond vigilantism, can only stretch so far. At a certain point, investors recognise they are being adequately compensated for bearing tariff-related inflation risks. When that happens, US long bonds may start to attract stronger demand, offering not just a yield premium but also a degree of protection in a potentially slower growth environment. With the European Central Bank moving onto an easing path, the spread between US and European long-end rates is likely to widen further in the near term. That divergence supports the case for US duration, especially as the risk premium embedded in Treasury yields becomes more attractive. Downward pressure on the dollarWhile credit markets also weakened during April, the more pressing concern is the US dollar. The dollar index fell to a three-year low in the month, and the currency is currently looking technically oversold, even when assessed relative to interest rate differentials. Fundamentally, there appears to be an incentive for the US to maintain a weaker dollar in order to reduce its export deficit. What we are seeing is the emergence of a new economic regime. Previously, foreign exchange moves were largely driven by interest rate differentials. But under Trump's policies, those drivers appear to be shifting. Trade dynamics and political strategy are taking a more central role in currency movements. In this new environment, we expect continued downward pressure on the dollar. Slowing economic data, which we anticipate will materialise soon, could reinforce this trend. We also believe that at its upcoming June meeting the Fed is more likely to ease policy, which the markets have currently priced in at only around 50%. Thoughts on volatilityThe start of April brought a spike in market volatility that unsettled many investors. In today's markets, risk premiums are priced in far more quickly than they were two decades ago, and we saw this in action with the volatility index (VIX) briefly surging above 50 following Liberation Day. Such levels are rare and typically short-lived. While similar spikes occurred during the Global Financial Crisis and the early days of pandemic, volatility above 50 historically tends not to persist. It creates an environment where selling volatility becomes attractive, quickly pulling the index back down. This pattern appears to be playing out again. The initial equity sell-off seemed to bottom shortly after the Liberation Day announcement, in a manner not dissimilar to the bottom reached in March 2020 at the onset of the pandemic. Back then, valuations fell to around 16 times forward earnings. This time, we've only seen multiples contract to roughly 19 times, and credit markets have experienced far less severe dislocation. While macro risks remain, current conditions do not yet point to a systemic crisis. From a market positioning perspective, the worst may now be behind us. What happens next largely depends on the pace and direction of trade negotiations, both with Washington's allies and, further down the line, China. Ultimately, we expect US-China tariffs to settle in the mid-double-digit range, depending on how far both sides are willing to compromise. Crucially, Trump will need to make at least a symbolic concession to allow Xi Jinping to save face. Without that, a sustainable off-ramp becomes much harder to achieve. For now, based on historical patterns and current valuations, we think it's likely the market has found a near-term bottom, unless trade tensions escalate significantly from here. In our view, now is an opportune time to consider an active global fixed income approach to navigate what is likely to be a prolonged period of uncertainty and for those seeking diversification. With bond yields and geopolitical risks remaining elevated, this environment presents unique opportunities in fixed income, particularly as markets adjust to lower inflation expectations. Funds operated by this manager: Nikko AM Global Share Fund , Nikko AM ARK Global Disruptive Innovation Fund , Nikko AM NZ Cash Fund , Nikko AM NZ Corporate Bond Fund , Nikko AM Core Equity Fund (NZ) , Nikko AM Global Shares Hedged Fund (NZ) , Nikko AM KiwiSaver Scheme Balanced Fund (NZ) , Nikko AM ARK Disruptive Innovation Fund (NZ)
Important disclaimer information Please note that much of the content which appears on this page is intended for the use of professional investors only. |
5 Jun 2025 - Is the idea of a sustainable Earth a farce?
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Is the idea of a sustainable Earth a farce? Janus Henderson Investors May 2025 Viewing the Earth as an "island" with limited resources underscores the importance of evaluating the systemic risks of overconsumption, considering the environment in long-term investment strategies, and investing in firms committed to sustainable practices. When contemplating if a sustainable Earth is possible, utilising some fundamental concepts from science and economics provides an interesting perspective for insight into investment opportunities, starting first with the ecology concept of carrying capacity. Carrying capacity sets out to answer the question for a single species in a defined space: is there a maximum number of individuals for that species that can be supported by its surrounding environment? One of the most often cited examples is the moose population on Isle Royale. The island in Michigan, United States, is a designated wilderness environment that can only be accessed by boat. Analysis of the moose population shows that its size is directly connected to vegetation and predator levels of the island. The idea of environmental sustainability expands on this island view of carrying capacity by viewing the Earth, from outer space, as an island. Earth: an island in spaceViewing the Earth as an island then implies it has limited resources to support a maximum population. If that's the case, then one might wonder how life persists with limited resources available. This is best answered by considering a fundamental scientific principle - The Law of Conservation of Mass, which states that mass is neither created nor destroyed in a chemical reaction, only converted. Based on this principle, it means all matter needed to live on Earth must come from something on Earth. So, we must, therefore, recognise as a collective society that the Earth has a finite amount and fixed number of resources (e.g., mass) to share amongst all living things. These resources form a common-pool that everyone can use, but once consumed, they are unavailable for others. If resources are only taken from this pool and not replenished, they would eventually run out. However, Earth has natural recycling processes like the water cycle, carbon cycle, oxygen cycle, and other biogeochemical cycles that help make used resources reusable, although these processes require time to complete. On the surface, this makes it seem like sustainability is possible. For Earth to be sustainable, the rate of resource consumption must not exceed the rate at which they can be recycled. This balance is crucial for sustainability, but it becomes complicated by the 'Tragedy of the Commons'. This economic theory describes how individuals, if given unregulated access to a shared resource, tend to overuse it, depleting the resource at a rate faster than it can regenerate. A classic example is overgrazing of a village's common, shared grassland. If too many sheep were placed in the field by each villager resulting in the grass being eaten faster than it could grow back, it would ultimately result in a sheep population that could not be supported by the field. The 'Tragedy of the Commons' highlights that if a common resource is left unregulated then the potential for it to be overconsumed is highly likely. The challenge of sustainability, therefore, lies in finding ways to ensure that consumption of a common resource does not surpass Earth's or technological ability to recycle these resources, ensuring they are available for future use. The investment case for sustainabilitySo, what does viewing the Earth as an island with a common-pool of resources mean for an investor? Investors should:
A clear investment case emerges for companies thoughtfully considering the use and reuse of common-pool resources. Saint-Gobain, a global building materials company, aims to become the worldwide leader in light and sustainable construction. Operating in 76 countries with 160,000 employees and generating revenues close to €50 billion, the company is driven by its mission to "make the world a better home". It is particularly influential in the realm of low-cost homebuilding and renovation, addressing the needs of expanding populations. Saint-Gobain's integrated solutions offer numerous environmental and social advantages, such as enhancing energy efficiency, reducing embedded carbon, optimising the use of natural resources, and improving the thermal, acoustic, and safety features of homes, all while maintaining affordability. In the context of circularity, the construction industry is notorious for its substantial environmental footprint, responsible for 40% of solid waste and nearly 50% of natural resource consumption. Saint-Gobain is actively working to mitigate these impacts with several initiatives aimed at enhancing sustainability. The company has adapted its factories and manufacturing processes to utilise recycled inputs and collaborates with governments to improve the collection of recycled materials. A significant portion of its products, including plasterboard, glass wool, and flat glass, are infinitely recyclable, reinforcing its commitment to sustainable practices. Saint-Gobain not only adheres to best practices in the building materials sector but also gains a competitive edge as sustainability becomes a more integral factor in consumer decisions. The company has noted a rising customer interest in Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs). Utilising EPDs, which rely on Life Cycle Analysis, Saint-Gobain can benchmark its products against competitors and establish itself as a leader in sustainable construction. By issuing EPDs, Saint-Gobain Glass supports clients such as architects, engineering firms, and general contractors who aim to secure building certifications like Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED), Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Nachhaltiges Bauen (DGNB), among others. With an eye to the future, Saint-Gobain is also designing its products and construction solutions to be easily separated in the event of deconstruction. It has a 2030 target to reduce non-recoverable waste by 80% and reduce virgin material consumption by 30%, and currently more than 50% of sales are generated by products covered by verified life-cycle assessments and environmental product declarations with a 2030 target of 100%.1 This forward-thinking approach not only enhances its investment appeal but also solidifies its role in promoting sustainable practices in high-impact sectors like construction. This is exactly the type of strategy that we look for in companies that we consider having strong investment appeal. We find that companies that solidify their role in promoting sustainable practices have strong, long-term potential to deliver financially material advantages to investors. |
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Funds operated by this manager: Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest Fund , Janus Henderson Conservative Fixed Interest Fund , Janus Henderson Diversified Credit Fund , Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund , Janus Henderson Tactical Income Fund , Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest Fund - Institutional , Janus Henderson Conservative Fixed Interest Fund - Institutional , Janus Henderson Cash Fund - Institutional , Janus Henderson Global Multi-Strategy Fund , Janus Henderson Global Sustainable Equity Fund , Janus Henderson Sustainable Credit Fund , Janus Henderson Net Zero Transition Resources Fund Definitions and footnotes BREEAM (Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method) is a widely used sustainability assessment method for buildings and infrastructure, designed to improve environmental performance and promote sustainable practices. It evaluates buildings across various criteria, including energy, water, materials, waste, and more, to achieve a holistic approach to sustainability. Carrying capacity is defined as the maximum number of individuals from a particular species that an environment can support indefinitely without harming its natural resources and ecosystem functions over time. This principle is commonly applied in ecological studies to determine the sustainable population limit of an environment, ensuring that ecological harm or resource exhaustion is avoided. Common-pool resources are resources that are available to everyone in a community or society but are finite in quantity. These resources are difficult to restrict access to, and their use by one person diminishes their availability to others. Examples of common-pool resources include fisheries, forests, groundwater reserves, and pasturelands. Effective management and preservation of these resources are crucial to avoid overexploitation, which is often referred to as the Tragedy of the Commons. This requires diligent regulation to avert excessive use and subsequent depletion. DGNB (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Nachhaltiges Bauen), which translates to the German Sustainable Building Council, is a non-profit organisation that promotes and certifies sustainable buildings and urban districts in Germany and internationally. The DGNB system evaluates buildings based on their environmental, economic, and sociocultural impact throughout their lifecycle, from planning to demolition. LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) is a globally recognised green building rating system developed by the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC). It provides a framework for designing, constructing, and operating buildings that are more environmentally responsible, energy-efficient, and healthy. LEED certification is awarded based on a project's performance across various categories like water efficiency, energy use, and indoor environmental quality. Life Cycle Analysis (LCA): This approach assesses the ecological effects of a product or service from the beginning of its life, starting with the extraction of raw materials, through to its ultimate disposal. It enables companies to comprehend the environmental consequences of their operations and make choices that minimise detrimental effects. 1Source: Stain-Gobain, 'Our Actions and Targets - Sustainability' All opinions and estimates in this information are subject to change without notice and are the views of the author at the time of publication. Janus Henderson is not under any obligation to update this information to the extent that it is or becomes out of date or incorrect. The information herein shall not in any way constitute advice or an invitation to invest. It is solely for information purposes and subject to change without notice. This information does not purport to be a comprehensive statement or description of any markets or securities referred to within. Any references to individual securities do not constitute a securities recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Whilst Janus Henderson believe that the information is correct at the date of publication, no warranty or representation is given to this effect and no responsibility can be accepted by Janus Henderson to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. |
4 Jun 2025 - Instant Everything: The New Retail Revolution
3 Jun 2025 - Sports Investment: The New Frontier of Alternative Assets
Sports Investment: The New Frontier of Alternative AssetsAltor Capital May 2025 |
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In an era where traditional investment vehicles are increasingly scrutinised for their volatility and limited returns, alternative assets have emerged as compelling diversification options for sophisticated investors seeking uncorrelated returns. Among these alternatives, sports franchises demonstrate remarkable potential for significant value appreciation and revenue generation that can outpace traditional market returns. Recent developments in the football world highlight this trend, with two particularly illuminating examples: Liverpool FC's commercial ascension and Wrexham AFC's meteoric valuation rise under celebrity ownership. The Liverpool Model: Commercial Excellence Driving Financial GrowthLiverpool Football Club has established itself as a masterclass in commercial strategy execution within the sports industry. According to the club's official announcement, Liverpool's commercial revenue has surged by an impressive 23% to £272 million for the 2022-23 season, propelling them past rivals Manchester United for the first time in Premier League history. This achievement reflects several key investment factors:
For investors, Liverpool represents the potential of established tier-one sports assets when operated with commercial excellence. The club's ability to grow revenues even during challenging economic periods underscores sports franchises' resilience as investment vehicles. The Wrexham Phenomenon: Value Creation Through StorytellingOn the opposite end of the spectrum, Wrexham AFC provides a fascinating case study in rapid value creation through innovative approaches to sports ownership. When Hollywood stars Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney purchased the struggling fifth-tier club in November 2020 for approximately £2 million, few anticipated the extraordinary transformation that would follow. Industry analysis suggests the club could now be valued at nearly £300 million--a staggering 15,000% increase in just over four years. This remarkable appreciation stems from:
The Wrexham case illustrates the extraordinary potential for value creation in "undervalued" sports properties when combined with innovative marketing, content creation, and authentic storytelling. Key Investment Insights for Sports ConsiderationFor sophisticated investors and their financial advisors considering sports franchise investment as an alternative asset class, several key principles emerge from these case studies:
Our Approach to Sports Investment OpportunitiesWe recognise that sports investments represent a unique alternative asset class that combines exceptional financial return potential with prestige ownership and community impact. Our approach is built on three decades of experience navigating complex alternative markets:
Conclusion: The Evolving Investment Thesis for High Net Worth PortfoliosThe contrasting examples of Liverpool and Wrexham illustrate the breadth of opportunity within sports franchise investment. Whether through operational excellence at established clubs or transformational vision at undervalued properties, the potential for significant returns exists across the spectrum. For high-net-worth investors and family offices seeking genuinely differentiated return drivers, sports franchises offer a compelling alternative--one built on passionate fan engagement, diverse revenue streams, and the universal appeal of athletic competition. As traditional markets face continued uncertainty and higher correlations across conventional asset classes, sports franchises represent not just a diversification play but potentially a cornerstone of future portfolio growth for sophisticated investors. For financial advisors, introducing appropriately structured sports franchise investments to suitable clients can demonstrate value beyond traditional portfolio construction while potentially enhancing long-term returns. Funds operated by this manager: Altor AltFi Income Fund, Altor Emerging Growth Fund |
2 Jun 2025 - The big issues for investors coming out of Washington
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The big issues for investors coming out of Washington Magellan Asset Management May 2025 |
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The first 100 days of the second Trump administration have certainly been interesting for investors. And as the initial global tariff shock appears to be winding back, it's a good time to draw on the thoughts and the insights of a Washington insider. National Security Expert Michael Allen, who was a Special Assistant to former President George W. Bush shares his thoughts in a wide-ranging interview. Magellan Head of Global Equities and Portfolio Manager Arvid Streimann talks with Michael about tariffs, the US government deficit, the Democrats, the US's technological lead over China and the Chinese military buildup. |
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Funds operated by this manager: Magellan Global Fund (Hedged), Magellan Core Infrastructure Fund, Magellan Global Fund (Open Class Units) ASX:MGOC, Magellan High Conviction Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Important Information: Copyright 2025 All rights reserved. Units in the funds referred to in this podcast are issued by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946, AFS Licence No. 304 301 ('Magellan'). This material has been delivered to you by Magellan and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and Target Market Determination ('TMD') and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making a decision about whether to acquire, or continue to hold, the relevant financial product. A copy of the relevant PDS and TMD relating to a Magellan financial product may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4888 or by visiting www.magellangroup.com.au. The opinions expressed in this material are as of the date of publication and are subject to change. The information and opinions contained in this material are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any financial product or service, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to implement its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward looking' statements and no guarantee is made that any forecasts or predictions made will materialise. No representation or warranty is made with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this material. Magellan will not be responsible or liable for any losses arising from your use or reliance upon any part of the information contained in this material. This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Magellan. Further important information regarding this podcast can be found on the Insights page on our website, www.magellangroup.com.au. |
30 May 2025 - A Super Strategy
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A Super Strategy Marcus Today May 2025 |
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Every time there is a significant market event I have friends ask me the same set of questions. Why is this happening? Is it too late to sell? I don't have any shares, should I care? The more important question is - how could I have avoided this? Better still - think the stock market doesn't affect you? Think again. Foreword: In my friendship group there are two types of people. 10% are interested in the stock market. Know what an ETF is and buy and sell shares. The other 90% have never traded in their life, think a bear market is where you can buy a bear and don't really understand what I do at Marcus Today. Should that group be interested in the stock market? If they are 30 years old they will on average have $50,000 in their superannuation account. Where is that money invested? In the stock market! The performance of their super and the amount they will retire with are highly dependent on it. This article is focused on them. PART 1: SHOULD YOU CARE? Working in the stock market, the only time I get asked for advice from friends is when there's a major correction. The same question always comes up: "Is it too late to sell?". It happened last month (tariff tumble), it happened last year (carry trade three day flush) and would have happened in Covid. When you can see an account with thousands of dollars dropping 5% in a day, this question isn't surprising. The question no one asks (but should): "How could I have avoided this?" Even more important: "What difference would it make to my retirement by asking that question?".
I know most people under 35 struggle to look far ahead enough to care. When half of my friends are wondering how they will be able to afford a house or start a family, you can forgive them for not paying much attention to something that automatically gets taken out of their payslip and can't be touched for another 30 years. The purpose of this article is to say "you 100% should care". Given the fabulous opportunity my generation has from super - tax benefits, long runway, the eighth wonder of the world (compounding interest), considering we 'missed' the housing market boom, it is worth investigating the full potential of what your balance could be upon retirement. I used to be an engineer, so let's do a few simple calculations and see what difference each % return makes over the course of a work life. To simplify the formula, I've made the following (conservative) assumptions:
The chart below shows the final super balance you can expect after year 35 with an 8% return. Both the S&P 500 total return index and All Ords Accumulation index average 9-11% (over 30Y) but you have management and administration fees to include. That aside:
One percent makes a huge impact in other words when your runway is 35 years, and again, this is a conservative estimate.
The good news is even with 8% average return you'll be retiring with ~$3.5 million. You can see why the government has been steadily trying to increase the mandatory super contribution (goes from 11.5% to 12% in July). If every Australian had the above hypothetical work life there would be no need for the pension. Last FY it accounted for 37% of all government spending. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5% (the average in Australia for the last 10Y), this $3.5 million equates to a present value of $1.45 million. Not bad. Marcus once estimated how much you really need to retire was around $2 million. Time to ask for that promotion! Sounds OK, BUT. There are two catches. This calculation assumes 100% of your super is invested in either the S&P 500 total return or the All Ords Accumulation index. Something most super companies will call 'high risk' and try talk you out of. The average 'balanced' Australian superannuation account only has 35% invested in international equities and 30% in Australian equities. The rest is private equity, infrastructure, property, fixed interest and (dare I say it) cash. If you're in a balanced super account your return could shrink from ~8% to ~6% ('defensive' drops it to 5%!), and that $1.45 million retirement fund falls to $0.9 million. Probably enough to live on. But not enough for the European holiday, grand-children school fees or kitchen renovation. In short:
To combat this you need to switch to a 100% equities investment strategy. Check your current provider allows this. If not. Time to move. The second catch...tax. Cannot be ignored but I'll try keep it simple. All contributions to super (below the $30k pa concessional cap) are taxed at 15%. All realised investment gains are taxed at 15% (I'm not assuming shares will be held for longer than 12 months, so no 50% CGT concessions). All in all, this is far better than paying at your marginal rate but is still significant. Factoring in these rates, your $0.9 million in a balanced fund drops to just $670k. PART 2: THE ROCKET $670k doesn't sound like much, so now we ask - can you do better? The next chart shows the final super balance you can expect after year 35 for four different returns ranging from 8% to 14%. At 14% the balance jumps from $3.5 million to $15 million or from $1.4 million to $6.2 million in today's terms. At 18% the line would look like a rocket.
Accounting for the tax rates above these are the final balances and net present value for returns ranging from 8% to 14%.
And the difference one percent makes now?
Why does all this matter? Is 14% possible? The Marcus Today Strategy Portfolio has returned ~20% since inception in 2018. We can't guarantee future returns will match past returns of course but even taking 12% - your retirement super level will go from $2.3 million to $5.2 million ($2.2 million present value) and that's not even touching on voluntary contributions. All hypothetical of course. No one knows the future but if you had the opportunity to increase your returns why not take it?
CONCLUSION Three things for you to do:
Bonus: If you want to become a better self-guided investor. Read Market Strategy a few times a week. We call it learning by osmosis. Oliver Matthew - Senior Analyst & Editor |
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29 May 2025 - What Trump's trade war means for EM local currency bonds
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What Trump's trade war means for EM local currency bonds abrdn May 2025 With index total returns of 3.3% in April and 7.7% year-to-date [1], emerging market (EM) local currency (LC) bonds have been resilient in the face of Trump's tariff shock. This is especially when compared to equities, with the S&P 500 Index at one point down by as much as 18% during April. What explains the outperformance of EM LC bonds, and to what extent might this be sustained? Local EM bond impactLocal currency bond returns include local bond returns and local currency (FX) returns. Country bond yields tend to move lower (bond prices rise) whenever local growth and inflation decline, making local interest rate cuts more likely. Trump's tariffs seem to tick both boxes - global growth, including in EM countries, is expected to weaken while non-US inflation is set to decline as Chinese goods formerly destined for the US are sold elsewhere at lower prices. The recent drop in oil prices due to global growth worries is also disinflationary. Local EM currency impactThe impact of sharply increased US tariffs on EM local currencies is less straightforward. Before Trump was re-elected, markets expected that US policy changes would likely be dollar-positive. The thinking was that increased tariffs would narrow the US trade deficit, while Trump's pro-growth policies would put upward pressure on US interest rates, supporting the US dollar. However, the tariff saga has significantly weakened the US dollar, which fell nearly 5% versus the euro in April. Conversely, as shown in Chart 1, the effect on EM local currencies has been favourable.
Chart 1: Selected year-to-date EM local currency performance versus USD (% change) The main reason for the US dollar's weakness is that while higher US tariffs were widely anticipated, the extent of the hikes and the disorderly manner of their implementation took most by surprise. With input costs expected to soar, the inflationary impact will likely be greater. The US growth outlook has also weakened significantly, with a recession now a possibility. Why recent USD weakness could persistAmid growing concerns about stagflation and generally increased US policy and economic uncertainty, US equities have especially borne the brunt of the tariff fallout. While this reflects increased domestic selling, we think a major contributor will also have been selling on the part of foreign investors. Over many years, helped by the 'US exceptionalism' narrative, foreign investors have built up very large holdings of US assets, which has certainly helped the dollar. Going forward however, if policy concerns persist, foreign investors could further reduce their still-large US asset overweight and effective long dollar positions. The fact that US equities and the dollar remain historically overvalued on most measures may also be a consideration. Reducing foreign allocation to US assets, or even slowing their accumulation, would likely be negative for the dollar but positive for non-dollar assets, including EM LC bonds. Some caveats for the weak USD caseThere are caveats. Predicting currency moves with any great conviction is always difficult, and betting big against the US dollar hasn't worked for well over a decade. There are also multiple scenarios in which the US dollar could bounce back strongly. For example, recent deals, including the newly announced temporary agreement with China, suggest that 'reciprocal' tariffs may eventually end up off the table, with the baseline 10% rate and some sectoral tariffs remaining. While this would increase costs for US consumers, it may well not be enough to trigger a disruptive recession, fear of which was surely behind some of the dollar's weakness this year. Outlook is about much more than just the dollarEM LC bond returns depend on more than what happens to the US dollar. With an index yield of over 6%, the income contribution will be sizeable [1].Furthermore, country-specific factors will continue be a key performance differentiator, highlighting the need for selectivity. Even with higher US tariffs, country-level impact could vary considerably. For example, if some form of tariff reciprocity were retained, sizeable variations in US tariff differentials between countries could emerge, creating potential US trade winners and losers. Putting everything togetherWe think the Trump tariff shock strengthens the investment case for EM LC bonds. Weakening global growth and falling inflation outside the US should make EM local interest rate cuts more likely, boosting EM local bond returns. On the currency side, foreign investor may look to further diversify their sizeable US asset holdings, especially US equities, in the face of heightened policy uncertainty. This could support EM local currency returns. However, several caveats argue against adopting a high-conviction view on US dollar directionality.
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Funds operated by this manager: abrdn Sustainable Asian Opportunities Fund, abrdn Emerging Opportunities Fund, abrdn Global Corporate Bond Fund (Class A), abrdn International Equity Fund, abrdn Multi-Asset Income Fund, abrdn Multi-Asset Real Return Fund, abrdn Sustainable International Equities Fund |
28 May 2025 - 10k Words | May 2025
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10k Words Equitable Investors May 2025 Apparently, Confucius did not say "One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words" after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in ads on the sides of streetcars... Private company M&A valuations have converged with those of ASX-listed emerging companies; a structural shift evident in 52-week highs and lows on the ASX sees gains going to a select group, with CBA being one of the few as lacklustre EPS growth is rewarded with P/E multiple expansion and CBA almost singlehandedly holds up MSCI's Australian index. Overall, EPS estimates for Austalian equities have also been lacklustre but, thanks in part to CBA, the Australian P/E is sitting at elevated levels also seen during the COVID-19 epidemic and the dotcom boom. Meanwhile, there was little market conviction in a 50 basis point cut from the RBA in May (which turned out to be the correct positioning with a 25bp cut announced today). IPO markets remain notably weak in 2025. On the tariff front, US price hikes from goods originating in China were quickly evident relative to those originating elsewhere. EBITDA multiples of unlisted Australian mid-market trades (Nexia MM Index) v. ASX trading multiples 
Source: Nexia No. of Australian M&A mid-market transactions and disclosed EBITDA multiple average value by enterprise value (March quarter 2025) 
Source: Nexia S&P/ASX 300 and cumulative 52-week highs - 52-week lows 
Source: SG Hiscock Forecast EPS (next 12m) and forward P/E multiple of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) 
Source: TIKR CBA contribution to 12-month return on iShares MSCI Australia (EWA)
Source: Koyfin Australia MSCI forward earnings per share (analysts' average forecasts) 
Source: Yardeni Research Australia MSCI forward PE multiple 
Source: Yardeni Research Expectations for a 50 basis point cash rate cut by the RBA in May were just 51% prior to the decision 
Source: ASX Decline in IPOs year-on-year globally in CY2025-to-date 
Source: WSJ, LSEG 2025 Australian IPO tracker
Source: Smallcaps.com.au US consumer price indices by country of origin 
Source: "Tracking the Short-Run Price of US Tariffs," Cavallo et al, May 10, 2025 US retail price indices in affected and unaffected categories 
Source: "Tracking the Short-Run Price of US Tariffs," Cavallo et al, May 10, 2025 May 2025 Edition Funds operated by this manager: Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Disclaimer Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Fund returns are quoted net of all fees, expenses and accrued performance fees. Delivery of this report to a recipient should not be relied on as a representation that there has been no change since the preparation date in the affairs or financial condition of the Fund or the Trustee; or that the information contained in this report remains accurate or complete at any time after the preparation date. Equitable Investors Pty Ltd (EI) does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this report. To the extent permitted by law, EI disclaims all liability that may otherwise arise due to any information in this report being inaccurate or information being omitted. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation and needs of potential investors. Before making a decision to invest in the Fund the recipient should obtain professional advice. This report does not purport to contain all the information that the recipient may require to evaluate a possible investment in the Fund. The recipient should conduct their own independent analysis of the Fund and refer to the current Information Memorandum, which is available from EI. |
