NEWS

5 Feb 2026 - Emerging markets outlook (and drinking tea) in 2026
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2025 EM Outlook: Reading the tea leaves Ox Capital (Fidante Partners) January 2026 (15-minute read) Investing is like boiling a kettle. When the kettle is hot, one can get burnt. In the investing world, it doesn't always pay to chase what is hot. When an economy is running hot, central banks will need to hike interest rates to ensure inflation stays under control. When an investment theme is "hot", its future potential is rapidly priced in by investors. In comparison, when the kettle is warming up, one has time to set up the tea set, watch the kettle boil, take a moment to brew the tea to hit its full flavour, and finally sit back and enjoy. EM equities have been "cold" for over a decade, but the kettle is finally warming up. Between Jan-24 and Nov-25, EM equities performed just as well as US equities. In particular, the Chinese equity market, which was considered "uninvestible" by some funds, has outperformed the US, Europe, and Japan markets over the same period. Figure 1: Chinese equity performance overtook key DMs in 2025
Source: MSCI.Developed markets have been running too "hot" In 2026, the "hot" developed markets (DMs) will have their share of challenges. Many developed economies have been running "hot" for some years propelled mostly by debt accumulation and rising asset prices. Since the pandemic, most developed economies have added debt to fund deficit spending for the maintenance of living standards. Politicians have often picked the easy option of further spending rather than reining in budget deficits. Global markets are starting to contemplate these latent risks. The weakening US dollar (USD), surging gold prices, and rising bond yields in the US and Japan (now over 3% for 30-year Japanese Government Bonds) are perhaps foretelling the problems ahead. Figure 2: USD weakening of 2025
Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies.
Figure 3: The gold price has rallied nearly 60% YTD at time of writing
Source: Goldprice.org.
Figure 4: Rising 30-year bond yields in the US and Japan
Source: Bloomberg.A changing geopolitical landscape and global alliances deepen the challenge ahead, as countries are also compelled to fund new defence spending. To fund this ever-growing government debt, it is likely that major DM central banks will loosen monetary policy (i.e. cut rates or even pursue QE in some form) in the face of moderately high inflation rates. Emerging markets are only "warming up" in 2025EM countries have better economic and demographic foundations than most of the developed world. Most EM governments have managed their finances responsibly. Consider Malaysia, which is actively pursuing fiscal reform, and Indonesia, which under President Joko Widodo has improved in leaps and bounds. Meanwhile, the Chinese and Vietnamese governments have both made tough decisions to keep their property markets in check. Having learnt their lessons from previous debt crisis, EM governments have worked hard to keep fiscal deficits under control, while still pursuing effective pro-development agendas. Even through COVID, they refrained from large government handouts. EM central banks broadly have no hesitation pushing interest rates higher to support domestic currencies and keep inflation in check where needed, even as many of the DM central banks' have begun new easing cycles. Case in point in monetary policy responsibility is Brazil, where the central bank has kept interest rates at 15% despite inflation running at a much lower 4-5%! As governments remain sensible in EM, many countries in EM have reasonable real interest rates (>3%). That is, there can be more monetary policy easing to come, supporting economic growth and equity markets in many EMs. Figure 5: Brazil, Indonesia, Philippines and India have high real rates of over 3%
Source: Trading Economics.2025 can be best characterised as a year of "de-risking" across EM. By and large, EM economies have emerged unscathed from US tariff negotiations. The final tariffs were largely between 10-20% in Asia, much lower than the initial "targets". This left the relative competitiveness of these Asian EM export nations unscathed. Two EM countries which were singled out by the US were Brazil and India. However, exports to the US from India and Brazil only account for a small percentage of GDP (≈2%), and likely any loss in volumes from the US can be taken up by other trading partners. Finally, China and the US agreed to a trade truce in November 2025, meaning trade and key external risks are settled for now, and we expect this to remain at least through 2026. Figure 6: Key Asian nations we invest in remain highly competitive exporters, despite new tariffs imposed by the US
Source : Ox Capital research.In China, it has been four years since the property market peaked. Property prices have declined as much as 30 to 40% in most cities. Several large private property developers have defaulted and been liquidated. Notably, the banking system has negotiated its way through the property market downturn well, with bad debt formation for Chinese banks trending down since 2021. With the banking system intact, China is NOT Japan. The country is only working through a cyclical property market downturn, and it is at the later stage of this adjustment. We expect property prices to bottom in late 2026 / early 2027. Figure 7: NPL formation in China is showing a healthy decline and banks' balance sheets are resilient
Source: JPMorgan.What is often less mentioned is the transformation of the Chinese economy. The construction and real estate sectors have shrunk as percentage of GDP. Figure 8: The construction and real estate sectors peaked at just over 15% of Chinese GDP in 2019, and are now around 12% of GDP
Source: Jefferies.Despite this, the Chinese economy still managed to grow ~5% p.a. between 2021 to 2025. The shortfall in growth coming from the slowing real estate and construction sectors was made up by the export and industrial sectors. Since the first Trump administration, China has been developing other export markets. Between 2021 to 2025, we can see the rise of Chinese exports to the Global South (ASEAN, Latin America, Africa, India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Turkey), which have been able to offset falling exports to G7 nations. Figure 9: G7 nations are no longer the top end markets for Chinese exports
Source: Jefferies, CEIC Data, General Administration of Customs.Its growth potential is further bolstered by the rise of new and innovative industries. These days, China is the leading producer of solar and wind energy equipment. In 2023, it overtook Japan as the largest auto exporting country, and it is today leading the world in the transition to electric vehicles (EVs). While China is now having success in various industrial and manufacturing end markets, for a time there was a fear that US sanctions could hold back China in the technology race by restricting access to semiconductor technology. Instead of becoming stifled, China has made it a national priority to develop domestic semiconductor know-how. In some product segments, the domestic suppliers are finally good enough to be considered as replacements for foreign imports. After semiconductors, the next front was AI. Again, China has shown that it is firmly in the race after the unveiling of DeepSeek in January 2025. Chinese AI companies, along with the open source community, can innovate and are often much more cost effective than the well-known hyperscalers. In summary, EM economies are resilient and capable of withstanding external pressures. Emerging markets are "heating up" in 2026There are multiple catalysts on the horizon. We are optimistic on EM in 2026: The weak USD:As a rule of thumb, a weak USD is a tailwind for EM. Central banks in EM economies need to consider the impact on their currencies in their rate cut decisions. Hence, a weak USD affords EM economies greater flexibility, with inflation largely under control. A key event to watch next year is the appointment of the new US Federal Reserve Chairman, as Jerome Powell's term will expire in May 2026. If the new Federal Reserve looks to quickly cut rates to support the economy, there will be greater downwards pressure on the USD.
Source: Morgan Stanley.Anything-but-AI:AI has been the focus of investors for over two years now. Many traditional non-technology stocks have been left behind and de-rated. At some point in the future, momentum behind AI spending will inevitably slow. Hence, investors will need to look for the "anything-but-AI" investment. EM, in particular Asian equities, can be a fertile hunting ground for new ideas. Earnings are expected to grow strongly (17% YoY) in 2026 in Asia ex-Japan. Figure 11: Asia ex-Japan forward earnings growth forecasts are strong and expected to stay high in 2026
Source: BofA, MSCI, FactSet.EM macro is better:In 2026, EMs are expected to grow faster than DMs (4.4% vs. 1.6%, respectively). Low inflation and high real interest rates suggest further room for multiple rate cuts in many EM economies. An important catalyst to watch out for is new stimulus policies in China in 2026. Most investors are not expecting much on this front. There will be upside if and when the Chinese government delivers on these measures in 2026. Figure 12: GDP growth for EMs in Asia is higher than DMs in 2026
Source: BofA.Value-up/shareholder return:In 2025, we saw the rise of value-up programs emphasising minority rights in Asia. This is something we have not seen much of in our time investing in Asia. Korea, which drew attention from global investors with its value-up program, was one of the best performing markets in EM in 2025. Other countries are taking notice. Indonesia set up its sovereign wealth fund (Danantara) in February 2025. Danantara is pushing state-owned enterprises to improve return on equity, and provide better shareholder returns. Elsewhere, the Singaporean government is investing $5bn with fund managers under its market development program to improve the liquidity of small and mid-caps in Singapore. These initiatives can be rewarded more strongly as execution begins to come through. Sunrise industries:The US/China rivalry is leading to the rapid growth of many "sunrise" industries (and stocks) in China. China is looking to promote and create domestic champions to reduce its reliance on US suppliers. We are particularly encouraged by the strong returns seen in the Chinese biotech space in 2025 as investors have begun to wake up to their potential. Almost 50% of global drug licensing deals in 2025 were sourced from China. Outside of biotech companies, many of the emerging leaders in fields such as robotics, medical device, AI, SaaS, autonomous driving, LIDAR, semiconductor and fintech, for example, are listed and poised to deliver sharply accelerating growth in 2026 and beyond. Many of these companies are looking to expand globally. There are just as many exciting thematic ideas in EM as on the Nasdaq. Figure 13: China is beginning to dominate global drug licensing with its innovative companies
Source: Citi Research.Stronger shareholders in EM:EM equities are in stronger hands and better supported than in years past, making them less susceptible to global fund flows. While mainland capital used to only make up 10 to 15% of turnover in Hong Kong, Chinese investors have now displaced global funds as the key investor, regularly accounting for two to three times this volume today, at 25 to 30% of daily turnover. In addition, another nice surprise for us, compared to years past, is the fact that we are seeing Chinese companies buying back their stocks aggressively. Some companies have shareholder return targets of as much as 10 to 15% a year. Similarly, the Indian stock market is well supported by local investors (through their regular saving plans). The Indian market has been resilient despite foreigners reducing their positions throughout 2025. Time to sit back and enjoy the teaSince COVID and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the world has been in a state of flux. The Trump administration has been working to re-cast the global order. Despite this, China has withstood and successfully countered challenges and a trade war with the US. Its local economy has proven sceptics wrong, and despite property prices being crunched in a bid by the Chinese government to reduce systematic risk, the banking system has hardly missed a beat. Outside of China, governments in EM are sticking to orthodox economics, by keeping budget deficits low, maintaining stable domestic currencies, with central banks fighting to keep inflation in check. Just like any good tea, it will take time to brew. Despite a favourable macroeconomic backdrop, global investors are only lightly positioned in EM, well below the historical average. Figure 14: EM positioning by global investors can pick up a long way from here |

4 Feb 2026 - Airlie Small Companies Fund Quarterly Update
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Airlie Small Companies Fund Quarterly Update Airlie Funds Management January 2026 (Viewing time: 11 mins) |
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The December quarter was an eventful period for Australian small caps, marked by shifting market conditions and evolving opportunities. In this quarterly update, Portfolio Manager Will Granger discusses how the small-cap landscape developed over the quarter and how the portfolio was actively positioned as conditions changed. He also outlines the investment thesis behind key holdings, including Joyce Corporation and PWR Holdings and explains what underpins conviction in these businesses as they have become more prominent positions within the Fund. Funds operated by this manager: Airlie Australian Share Fund , Airlie Small Companies Fund Important Information: This material has been delivered to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946 AFS Licence No. 304 301 trading as Airlie Funds Management ('Airlie') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and Target Market Determination ('TMD') and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making a decision about whether to acquire, or continue to hold, the relevant financial product. A copy of the relevant PDS and TMD relating to an Airlie financial product or service may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4760 or by visiting www.airliefundsmanagement.com.au. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any financial product or service, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to implement its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of an Airlie financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. Airlie makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of Airlie. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. No representation or warranty is made with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this material. Airlie will not be responsible or liable for any losses arising from your use or reliance upon any part of the information contained in this material. Any third party trademarks contained herein are the property of their respective owners and Airlie claims no ownership in, nor any affiliation with, such trademarks. Any third party trademarks that appear in this material are used for information purposes and only to identify the company names or brands of their respective owners. No affiliation, sponsorship or endorsement should be inferred from the use of these trademarks. This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Airlie. |

3 Feb 2026 - Global Matters: 2026 Outlook

2 Feb 2026 - Quarterly State of Trend report - Q4 2025
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Quarterly State of Trend report - Q4 2025 East Coast Capital Management January 2026 3-minute read In this update, we present the quarterly State of Trend report for Q4, 2025. Our report covers the performance of trend following systems compared with traditional investments such as the S&P/ASX 200 Total Return index, and the Australia "60/40" portfolio. Trend following provides exposure to a diverse pool of underlying instruments, and implements trading strategies systematically and without emotional biases. Trend following outperforms Australian traditional assets In Q4 2025, Australian traditional risk assets faced headwinds as policy uncertainty, global growth concerns and persistent inflation volatility weighed on investor sentiment. Trend following systems delivered strong positive returns, benefitting from sustained momentum in metals, international equities and selective currencies. Key market movements in Q4 2025
Featured chart - Silver
See the full report at our website. Funds operated by this manager: |

2 Feb 2026 - New Funds on Fundmonitors.com
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New Funds on FundMonitors.com |
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Below are some of the funds we've recently added to our database. Follow the links to view each fund's profile, where you'll have access to their offer documents, monthly reports, historical returns, performance analytics, rankings, research, platform availability, and news & insights. |
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| Blue Owl Credit Income Fund AUT - Class A | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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Orbis Global Equity LE Fund |
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29 Jan 2026 - Navigating EMD: risks, rewards and what's ahead
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Navigating EMD: risks, rewards and what's ahead abrdn January 2026 (6-minute read) We've been investing in emerging market debt (EMD) for over 30 years, with deep experience across both fast-growing frontier markets and established economies - at the corporate and sovereign level. So, what are the opportunities, risks, innovations and trends in EMD investing today? Read our far-reaching interview with Siddharth Dahiya, Global Head of EMD, to find out. Q: Why should investors consider emerging market debt in 2026 and what are some of the most attractive opportunities?Emerging market debt (EMD) enters 2026 in great shape. Across the asset class, we're seeing a range of positive dynamics. Hard currency sovereigns, for example, are experiencing a wave of ratings upgrades, reversing a decade-long trend of downgrades. This shift signals improving fundamentals and growing resilience across many EM economies. Q: How do you expect the EMD landscape to evolve over the next 12 months?We see the this year as a period of steady momentum rather than dramatic change. What is catching our eye is the growing interest in local currency debt, especially in frontier markets that used to fly under the radar. Investors are starting to take notice, attracted by improving fundamentals and compelling yields in these markets. Q: Which frontier markets stand out as offering unique potential - and what are the risks?Frontier markets present a diverse set of opportunities, each with its own idiosyncratic stories. The risks here are less about broad macro shocks and more about country-specific factors. For example, some frontier economies are heavily reliant on oil exports, making them vulnerable to price swings. Q: Are there thematic strategies within EMD that investors should pay attention to?Several themes are shaping the EMD landscape. The distinction between oil exporters and importers remains important, as does the impact of global tariffs and the ongoing trend towards nearshoring. Q: How do you balance sovereign versus corporate EMD exposure in the current environment?We believe both sovereign and corporate EMD have important roles to play in a well-constructed portfolio. Sovereign debt offers a wider dispersion of ratings, providing access to higher-yielding opportunities, while corporate debt tends to be higher quality, with a greater proportion of investment-grade issuers. Q: What role does currency exposure play in EMD returns, and how do you manage FX risk?Currency moves are a key component of the EMD narrative, especially in local markets. Last year, FX appreciation against the dollar was a significant contributor to performance. Investors can benefit from both currency gains and yield compression in local markets. If the dollar continues to weaken, local currency EMD should remain attractive. Q: How do you see global monetary policy shifts - especially potential rate cuts - impacting EMD performance?Global rate cuts are good news for EMD. Lower risk-free rates enhance the appeal of higher-yielding markets like EM, encouraging investors to seek out additional carry. When US Treasuries offer lower yields, the incentive to allocate to EMD increases, driving inflows and supporting performance. Q: What catalysts could unlock value in EMD over the next year?There are many. Country-specific reforms, successful restructurings, and geopolitical developments could all move the needle. Increased investor attention and flows are also important. Despite EM accounting for around half of global growth, it remains a small portion of most portfolios. A secular shift towards greater EM allocations could unlock significant value for investors. Q: For investors considering EMD today, what allocation strategies make sense - active vs. passive, hard vs. local currency?Active management makes the most sense. The asset class is diverse and idiosyncratic, and evidence shows active managers consistently outperform passive approaches. In such a complex market, skilled security selection, risk assessment and country analysis add meaningful value that passive exposures simply can't replicate. The choice between hard and local currency depends on risk tolerance. Local currency offers greater potential but comes with higher volatility, while hard currency can provide defensive qualities, especially in investment-grade segments. |
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Funds operated by this manager: abrdn Sustainable Asian Opportunities Fund , abrdn Emerging Opportunities Fund , abrdn Sustainable International Equities Fund , abrdn Global Corporate Bond Fund (Class A) |

28 Jan 2026 - Trip Insights: Canada - US

21 Jan 2026 - Why collaborating is key to climate change
Why collaborating is key to climate changePendal January 2026 5 minutes read time |
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WHAT does it take to tackle climate change, food security, or pandemic risk? At the recent PRI Stewardship and Collaboration Forum, the answer was clear: collective action. The United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment (UNPRI) brought together global leaders in sustainable finance. This Sydney forum, hosted by Regnan, convened 45 asset owners, managers, and responsible investment professionals to share insights on collaborative stewardship. Regnan's Grace Zhang presented at a similar event in Melbourne. The power of collective actionInvestors face challenges that are global and demand collective action. Issues such as climate change are beyond the control of one individual company or investor. Investors who view their activities within the context of interconnected, dynamic systems recognise their role in building resilience across the financial ecosystem. This systems-thinking approach has long been central to Regnan's research, engagement, and advocacy. It is why Regnan is actively involved in industry associations and initiatives within the responsible investment industry. Why impact investing? Aligning investments with personal values to have a positive impact on the world while also generating a financial return. Why collaboration mattersCollaboration gives investors access to diverse perspectives, shared intelligence and optimises resources. It also offers greater scale. Regnan has long recognised the importance of bringing voices together to address big challenges. Since Regnan became part of the Perpetual Group, stewardship opportunities have been amplified. This represents greater funds under management (FUM), which has increased influence. Collaboration also enables different engagements across geographies, asset classes and fund types. We have found within the Perpetual Group that collaboration allows for diversity of thought through challenging assumptions and improving decision quality. Regnan research highlights that to achieve true diversity is not just by having varied backgrounds, but by also cultivating a culture where differences can be valued and expressed. Regnan also seeks to bring voices together across our industry. This has included hosting like with the PRI event earlier this month, as well as facilitating and bringing communities together. A few years ago, Regnan brought together different links along the food production supply chain to discuss sustainable agriculture. Last month, we walked around the Regnan eucalyptus trees we get our name from with key leaders in the biodiversity space for an exploration of the work Regnan is doing in advocating the Great Forest National Park. Regnan is also a supporter of the other initiatives by the UNPRI, working with the SPRING initiative which relates to nature, co-leads the Collaborative Sovereign Engagement on Climate, and has a longstanding membership with the Climate Action 100+ initiative. Challenges and realitiesPositive intentions alone do not guarantee smooth collaboration. As anyone who participated in group projects at university knows, not all contributions are equal. Internal alignment with specific funds, mandates, and client expectations are essential. Collaboration must connect with other stewardship and engagement efforts to avoid "collaborative fatigue" - multiple meetings with nebulous outcomes that fail to advance the purpose of the funds. Why now? Continued ramp up in focus on climate change and ways to achieve global net zero goals through the transition to clean energy is generating greater opportunities and diversification in impact investing. Navigating regulationRegulatory challenges are increasingly shaping the landscape of responsible investment. In the US, political resistance has led to changes in shareholder rights, antitrust claims, and investigations into proxy advisors. Closer to home, the ACCC has opened consultations to introduce a class exemption for certain types of beneficial collaboration. It is vital that joint stewardship activities, such as engagement on climate, human rights, and governance, remain permissible under competition law. Restricting such collaboration could undermine efforts to address systemic ESG risks that require collective action. Looking forwardCollaboration does not negate competitive tension. Our clients expect us to undertake stewardship activities that provide meaningful investment insights and strengthen portfolio holdings. Nevertheless, collaborative stewardship is essential for managing systemic risk. Regnan has been a pioneer in using a systems-thinking approach to sustainable investing, and involvement in these collective initiatives is vital to support the health and resilience of the entire system (which, incidentally, includes our investable universe). The stewardship work Regnan does for Regnan funds, and the support provided across the Perpetual boutiques, treats stewardship as a beneficial component to active management. Leadership in collaboration activities allows us to leverage our research and experience, ultimately making us better stewards of the portfolios we influence. Why Regnan Credit Impact Trust? Provides easy access to an institutional-grade impact investment fund that is highly liquid, diversified and scalable. |
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Funds operated by this manager: Pendal MicroCap Opportunities Fund , Pendal Global Select Fund - Class R , Pendal Sustainable Australian Fixed Interest Fund - Class R , Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund , Pendal Horizon Sustainable Australian Share Fund , Regnan Credit Impact Trust Fund , Pendal Sustainable Australian Share Fund , Pendal Sustainable Balanced Fund - Class R , Pendal Multi-Asset Target Return Fund |
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This information has been prepared by Pendal Fund Services Limited (PFSL) ABN 13 161 249 332, AFSL No 431426 and is current as at December 8, 2021. PFSL is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the Pendal Multi-Asset Target Return Fund (Fund) ARSN: 623 987 968. A product disclosure statement (PDS) is available for the Fund and can be obtained by calling 1300 346 821 or visiting www.pendalgroup.com. The Target Market Determination (TMD) for the Fund is available at www.pendalgroup.com/ddo. You should obtain and consider the PDS and the TMD before deciding whether to acquire, continue to hold or dispose of units in the Fund. An investment in the Fund or any of the funds referred to in this web page is subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment of withdrawal proceeds and loss of income and principal invested. This information is for general purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It has been prepared without taking into account any recipient's personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their individual objectives, financial situation and needs. This information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation. The information may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither PFSL nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information. Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any projections are predictive only and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections. For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com |

19 Jan 2026 - 10k Words | January 2026
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10k Words Equitable Investors January 2026 (2-minute read) We kick off calendar 2026 by trying our hand at our own sentiment indicators - combining valuation and implied volatility for the US equity and bond markets, the Aus equity market and ASX small caps. Are investors paying a premium price for market calmness? Then we check in on Morningstar's bottom-up valuations. There is a chasm between small and large cap valuations based on revenue multiples but not so much on earnings. Tech has done the heavy lifting in large cap valuation AND earnings in the US over the past decade and the trend is expected to continue - but can US smalls deliver on lofty targets and drive a catch-up? In US dollars, the US market has underperformed most major markets in the Americas. Then we look at how short-term (daily) volatility itself is becoming more volatile over time. Turning to the economy, we look at personal loan delinquencies and savings rates, with signs of deterioration in consumer behaviour. A custom US equity market sentiment score - based on CAPE adjusted equity risk premium and the VIX relative to their historical average and volatility
Source: Equitable Investors A custom ASX equity market sentiment score - based on the dividend yield spread on bonds and the ASX VIX relative to their historical average and volatility
Source: Equitable Investors A custom ASX small cap sentiment score - based on the dividend yield spread on bonds and realised volatilty relative to their historical average and volatility
Source: Equitable Investors A custom US debt market sentiment score - based on 10 year bond yield and MOVE Index of implied volatility relative to their historical average and volatility Source: Equitable Investors Market price relative to US market bottom-up valuations from Morningstar Source: Morningstar Market price relative to ASX market bottom-up valuations from Morningstar
Source: Morningstar Earnings: US Tech vs the Rest Source: Topdown Charts Actual reported and bottom-up consensus EPS growth estimates Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Enterprise Value / consensus sales - S&P 500 (IVV ETF) v US microcaps (IWM ETF) Source: Koyfin Enterprise Value / consenus EBITDA - S&P 500 (IVV ETF) v US microcaps (IWM ETF) Source: Koyfin Price / consenus EPS - S&P 500 (IVV ETF) v US microcaps (IWM ETF) Source: Koyfin Country ETF performance over past 12 months (in USD) Source: Koyfin No. of daily 10% swings per calendar year in the VIX (CBOE Market Volatility) Source: Iress, Equitable Investors No. of daily 10% swings per calendar year in the S&P/ASX VIX Source: Iress, Equitable Investors Personal Loans - 90+ Delinquency (#) Source: Equifax Australian savings ratio Source: RBA USA personal saving Source: St Louis Fed Funds operated by this manager: Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Disclaimer Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Fund returns are quoted net of all fees, expenses and accrued performance fees. Delivery of this report to a recipient should not be relied on as a representation that there has been no change since the preparation date in the affairs or financial condition of the Fund or the Trustee; or that the information contained in this report remains accurate or complete at any time after the preparation date. Equitable Investors Pty Ltd (EI) does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this report. To the extent permitted by law, EI disclaims all liability that may otherwise arise due to any information in this report being inaccurate or information being omitted. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation and needs of potential investors. Before making a decision to invest in the Fund the recipient should obtain professional advice. This report does not purport to contain all the information that the recipient may require to evaluate a possible investment in the Fund. The recipient should conduct their own independent analysis of the Fund and refer to the current Information Memorandum, which is available from EI. |

14 Jan 2026 - Private markets outlook 2026: navigating opportunities through structural change
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Private markets outlook 2026: navigating opportunities through structural change abrdn January 2026 (4-minute read) Private markets should enter 2026 with a renewed sense of purpose. After a period of volatility and recalibration, the landscape has shifted in favour of long-term investors seeking resilience, diversification, and access to secular growth themes. From the growing role of private credit in corporate finance to the acceleration of digital and green infrastructure, the past year has underscored the strategic importance of private assets in modern portfolios. The macroeconomic backdrop is evolving. Global growth has slowed but remains intact, and inflationary pressures are beginning to ease. Central banks are approaching the end of their tightening cycles, with some already pivoting towards more accommodative stances. This shift in monetary policy is improving financing conditions, and supporting deal activity and valuations across private markets. Against this backdrop, our latest Private Markets House View outlines a cautiously optimistic outlook across the four major asset classes: private equity, private credit, infrastructure, and real estate. Each offers distinct opportunities, shaped by structural trends and regional dynamics. Private equity: rebound and realignmentPrivate equity has staged a strong recovery, with deal-making regaining momentum as confidence returns to the market. Improved credit availability and greater alignment between buyers and sellers have helped restore activity levels. Valuations, which had softened during the previous downturn, have rebounded, reflecting both stronger financing conditions and a focus on higher-quality assets. Thematic investing remains central to private equity strategies. Technology and healthcare continue to attract capital, driven by innovation and demographic shifts. Businesses that harness digital tools, automation, and artificial intelligence are particularly appealing. Meanwhile, sectors more exposed to economic cycles are being approached with greater caution, as investors prioritise resilience and long-term growth potential. Looking ahead, private equity is expected to maintain its role as a key driver of portfolio returns. While macroeconomic risks persist, the combination of structural tailwinds and a disciplined investment approach positions the asset class well for the coming years. Private credit: filling the lending gapPrivate credit has cemented its place as a vital source of capital, particularly as traditional banks scale back lending. In some regions, deal activity has been more subdued, reflecting recent market volatility and policy uncertainty. However, the underlying demand for private credit remains robust, with investors drawn to its income-generating potential. In Europe, direct lending has been especially active. It is supported by structural trends, such as bank disintermediation and the continued appetite for flexible financing solutions. Lenders are focusing on smaller, mid-market transactions where pricing and terms remain attractive. Credit quality has held up well, with lenders adopting more conservative structures to mitigate downside risk. As interest rates stabilise, the appeal of floating-rate instruments and the potential for enhanced yields continue to attract capital. Private credit opportunities are emerging in both traditional lending and more opportunistic strategies. Infrastructure: investing in the futureInfrastructure investment is thriving, fuelled by the global push towards digitalisation and decarbonisation. Capital deployment has accelerated, with strong interest in sectors such as renewable energy and digital infrastructure. These areas are benefiting from long-term policy support and growing demand for sustainable and connected solutions. Investors are increasingly looking beyond traditional core assets, seeking exposure to opportunities that offer a blend of stability and growth. Core-plus strategies, which involve assets with modest development or operational risk, are gaining traction as they offer the potential for higher returns without sacrificing predictability. The pipeline for infrastructure projects remains healthy, supported by public and private sector initiatives. As the energy transition gathers pace and digital connectivity becomes ever-more critical, infrastructure is set to remain a cornerstone of private market allocations. Real estate: a market in transitionPrivate real estate is showing signs of stabilisation following a period of adjustment. The easing of monetary policy is beginning to support valuations, and certain regions are experiencing a modest recovery. However, performance remains uneven, with outcomes varying significantly by geography and sector. A clear polarisation is emerging within the asset class. Investors are gravitating towards high-quality, future-fit assets that align with long-term trends. Logistics and residential properties are in favour, driven by structural demand and limited supply. In contrast, traditional office and retail assets face ongoing challenges, with changing work patterns and consumer behaviour reshaping demand. The focus is increasingly on assets that offer sustainability credentials, adaptability, and strong tenant demand. Value-add strategies, which involve repositioning or upgrading properties, are also gaining interest as investors seek to unlock value in a shifting landscape. Final thoughts...As we look to the year ahead, private markets offer a compelling proposition. Each asset class presents unique opportunities, underpinned by structural change and evolving investor needs. While selectivity and discipline remain essential, with improving macro conditions, private markets will continue to be a key driver of portfolio diversification and resilience. Private markets have become a vital component of investors' asset allocation. By embracing innovation, sustainability, and long-term thinking, investors can position themselves to navigate uncertainty and capture the opportunities that lie ahead in 2026 and beyond. |
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Funds operated by this manager: abrdn Sustainable Asian Opportunities Fund , abrdn Emerging Opportunities Fund , abrdn Sustainable International Equities Fund , abrdn Global Corporate Bond Fund (Class A) |



















