When the going gets tough....

Regular readers of Hedge Clippings will know that our commentary frequently varies from a focus on fund or industry returns. This week however, given the volatility in markets and the uncertainty that prevails, we will take a look at how actively managed funds as a whole have performed in recent times.

Prior to doing so however it's worth just reflecting on some of the factors disappointing markets. Firstly in Australia the reporting season has been less than stellar, with more disappointments evident than surprises to the upside. Elsewhere the overnight news from Greece was probably a surprise, but it's doubtful if anyone outside Greece is taking much notice any more.

China and the USA remain the big issues driving markets, with two big questions arising: Will the Chinese authorities have a Mario Draghi moment and actually come out and declare that they'll do "whatever it takes", or have they already indicated that they'll do so by their actions? Meanwhile in the US we are getting closer and closer to the day when interest rates will finally rise, and this week has shown that while most understand that, when it actually happens there will be a significant impact on the market.

And so back to the performance of absolute return and actively managed funds. There have been plenty of comments in the press over the past few years that as a whole active managers have not performed sufficiently to justify their fees. In somecases that may well have been the case, but it's difficult to outperform in a strongly rising market, while still protecting the downside.

However, it is evident that when markets begin to underperform, or become volatile, absolute return funds come into their own. Over the past 12 months to the end of July the ASX 200 Accumulation Index has risen 5.68%. When one considers that the index includes dividends, the ASX 200 (excluding dividends) has risen just 1.18%.

Over the same 12 month period equity-based funds in AFM's database have risen 13.43% on average, with 63% of funds outperforming the ASX 200 Accumulation Index. Taking June returns by themselves, when the market fell 5.3% funds significantly protected investors' downside, albeit that they also fell 1.88%. That's still an outperformance of almost 3.5 percent, with 85% of all funds outperforming the market.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

FUND REVIEWS released this week: Monash Absolute Investment Fund; Morphic Global Opportunities Fund; Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund

UPCOMING EVENTS:

20 - 21 August 2015 - The 2nd Superannuation Fund Investment Operations Forum 2015 is a two day forum providing invaluable technological, regulatory compliant and best practice insights into improving back and middle office efficiency to drive member loyalty, bottom line profitability and a competitive edge

26 - 28 August 2015 - The 15th Annual Wraps, Platforms & Masterfunds Conference will provide solutions for succeeding in a distribution world of endless possibilities, showcasing strategies to help business achieve the biggest bite of market share, use innovation to overcome problems and support opportunities. Australian Fund Monitors is pleased to offer a discount of $300 to all investors and advisors using coupon code promoFM on registration.

17 September 2015 - The 14th Annual Hedge Fund Rock and Australian Hedge Fund Awards 2015 as the industry lets its hair down with some drinks, music and great videos. All proceeds go to Redkite helping childern with cancer and their families.

And Now for Something Completely Different. Koala's are renowned for all sorts of things, but generally for being cute, cuddly and sleepy, I'm told becasue they're stoned on the gum leaves they munch all day. Not this one.

On that note, have a good week-end.

Regards,

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

Connect with me on LinkedIn Twitter Facebook

Known knowns, and surprising surprises

Maybe it was just the team at Hedge Clippings that weren't expecting it, but we should know that surprises that are unexpected are more damaging than those that are. I'm sure there's a lack of logic in there somewhere because surprises that are expected can't be a surprise, as am sure some of our readers will pick up on.

What we are getting at is this: Greece wasn't really a surprise as many investors were fully aware of the problems for four or five years. So when the potential of Grexit finally came to the crunch, although there were some market wobbles, most investors had come to terms with reality.

Ditto, we expect, with interest rate rises in the US. Although we have yet to see an actual rise to occur, it would be difficult for any investor to say they weren't aware of what is going to happen, even if that doesn't mean to say there won't be a significant market reaction when the inevitable happens.

The China situation is a little different. Firstly  there had been differing views on the Chinese economy, with some participants following the line that the Chinese economy would stay "stronger for longer", whilst others were talking about the inevitability of a slowdown. Secondly, until very recently Chinese economic data wasn't as transparent as many would have liked, so no one really knew.

What shouldn't take investors by surprise is the determination of the Chinese authorities to retain tight controls, be they on the economy, markets, the currency, or if it comes that any other aspect of life in China. Their attempts to control the markets by limiting investors' ability to sell stocks for example, were ham fisted at best, but did show they meant business, and in the short-term at least appear to have been reasonably successful.

What did take investors by surprise was their devaluation of the Yuan this week, not once, not twice, but three days in a row, and counting. And what markets hate most is either an absence of information, or being surprised by it when it occurs.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

FUND REVIEWS released this week: Supervised High Yield Fund

UPCOMING EVENTS:

20 - 21 August 2015 - The 2nd Superannuation Fund Investment Operations Forum 2015 is a two day forum providing invaluable technological, regulatory compliant and best practice insights into improving back and middle office efficiency to drive member loyalty, bottom line profitability and a competitive edge

26 - 28 August 2015 - The 15th Annual Wraps, Platforms & Masterfunds Conference will provide solutions for succeeding in a distribution world of endless possibilities, showcasing strategies to help business achieve the biggest bite of market share, use innovation to overcome problems and support opportunities. Australian Fund Monitors is pleased to offer a discount of $300 to all investors and advisors using coupon code promoFM on registration.

17 September 2015 - The 14th Annual Hedge Fund Rock and Australian Hedge Fund Awards 2015 as the industry lets its hair down with some drinks, music and great videos. All proceeds go to Redkite helping childern with cancer and their families.

A couple of suggestions for And Now for Something Completely Different recieved this week were "interesting" to say the least, but probably would not have been appreciated by all our subscribers. Thank you anyway - I tried the cider, but am still looking for the watch.

As much as we don't like to replay old clips, this one is special, partly as it was the first one we ever used, and partly because it is still such great value. Enjoy!

On that note, have a good week-end.

Regards,

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

Connect with me on LinkedIn Twitter Facebook

Australian Fund Monitors are helping to raise awareness to support research into prevention and cure for cerebral palsy. For more information visit www.cpresearch.org.au or contact me by email.

The 4.4% bounce in Australia's equity markets in July would have been welcome news to investors, providing the first positive month since February, with the market making up most, but not all of June's fall of 5.3%. The reality however is that the market is jumping up and down on the same spot, and has been doing so for the past year, with 12 month performance of the ASX200 just 1.18% to the end of July, or 5.68% on a total return basis.

At least the resulting 4.5% in dividend yield looks attractive against 2% in the bank, but it certainly doesn't pay for the risk and volatility of the market.

Across the Pacific in the US the market's a little better, but not much, with Calendar YTD returns of 2.18%, or 3.35% on a total return basis.  Research out of the US based on analysis by Factset of company reports suggest there remain a number of recurring concerns, including Greece, China, (with the Shanghai market falling 14% in July, adding to June's drop of 7%), and the strength of the US Currency. Somewhat surprisingly the spectre of increasing interest rates didn't feature.

In Australia the concerns are China, Resources (each linked at the hip), and to a lesser degree Greece (which seems to have slipped off the risk radar somewhat).

The major issue locally is the generally poor outlook for consumer and business confidence. Yesterday's employment numbers were a double edged sword, with the participation rate offsetting the actual increase in employment. The elephant in the room from a business confidence perspective would appear to be the ongoing lack of vision coming from either side in Canberra, and the recent focus on the front pages of the shenanigans (a kind term for it) with "entitlements" haven't helped.

As the August reporting season moves into full swing the risk will probably increase, with the general theme of limited earnings' growth (or in the case of resources, negative earnings' growth of around 30%) as the economy remains limp at best.

As Richard Fish from Bennelong Long Short Asset Management (having notched up a return of 8.85% for the month) noted in their July performance report "unless the market is overcome with good results in coming weeks and upbeat outlook statements (which is hard to reconcile with economic data and the direction of recent earnings revisions), it's most probable that the market remains range bound over the balance of this calendar year".

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

FUND REVIEWS released this week: Aurora Fortitude Absolute Return Fund; Insync Global Titans Fund

UPCOMING EVENTS:

20 - 21 August 2015 - The 2nd Superannuation Fund Investment Operations Forum 2015 is a two day forum providing invaluable technological, regulatory compliant and best practice insights into improving back and middle office efficiency to drive member loyalty, bottom line profitability and a competitive edge

26 - 28 August 2015 - The 15th Annual Wraps, Platforms & Masterfunds Conference will provide solutions for succeeding in a distribution world of endless possibilities, showcasing strategies to help business achieve the biggest bite of market share, use innovation to overcome problems and support opportunities. Australian Fund Monitors is pleased to offer a discount of $300 to all investors and advisors using coupon code promoFM on registration.

17 September 2015 - The 14th Annual Hedge Fund Rock and Australian Hedge Fund Awards 2015 as the industry lets its hair down with some drinks, music and great videos. All proceeds go to Redkite helping childern with cancer and their families.

On that note, have a good week-end.

Regards,

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

Connect with me on LinkedIn Twitter Facebook

Australian Fund Monitors are helping to raise awareness to support research into prevention and cure for cerebral palsy. For more information visit www.cpresearch.org.au or contact me by email.

Twelve month industry and sector performance review

The past 12 months have not been easy for Australian investors, particularly those who had become used to double digit returns from high yielding equities, and bank stocks in particular, over the past couple of years. Just to add insult to injury, the ASX200 dropped over 5% in June as the crisis in Greece reached a crescendo.

As a result the ASX200 Accumulation Index managed to return only 5.67% for the financial year to 30 June, with 5 out of the 12 months in negative territory. Considering September 2014 recorded a negative -5.37% to add to June's -5.30% this was probably not a bad end result, although probably saved by the buoyant start to the calendar year which saw the market rise 3.27% in January, and a further 6.88% in February.

In the 12 months to June 2014 the market returned 17.43%, and for the period to June 2013 an even better 22.67%, so investors had been provided with a period of 24 months averaging 20% plus per annum. As most investors would appreciate most of the performance was coming from a handful of heavyweight financial stocks and Telstra, so the yield hungry, concentrated portfolios were doing even better.

By comparison, actively managed equity and hedge funds performed admirably in the most recent 12 months, returning 11.34% on average, with 75% outperforming the 5.68% return of the ASX200. Including non-equity funds took a little, but not a lot of, gloss off the result, with all single funds returning 10.53% for the same period.

Of interest was the fact that when looking at individual strategies, Long Only (+16.87%) outperformed Equity Long/Short (+11.76%), while Market Neutral struggled at 4.48%. Taking a geographical breakdown showed Asia leading the regions, with Asia up 12.95% and Asia ex Japan up 18%, while Global funds produced 10.72%, and Australian focused funds came in at 7.92%, with currency gains presumably providing significant tail winds for those not hedging their A$ exposure.

So while a creditable 75% of funds outperformed the local equity market, once again fund selection, and having a reasonably diversified portfolio balancing both performance and risk seemed the best solution for the smart investor.

Full details can be found on the www.fundmonitors.com industry and sector performance page.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Insync Global Titans Fund outperformed its benchmark MSCI All Country World ex-Australia Net Total Return Index ($A) by 0.50%.

FUND REVIEWS released this week: Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund; Pengana Absolute Return Asia Pacific Fund; Totus Alpha Fund; 

UPCOMING EVENTS:

20 - 21 August 2015 - The 2nd Superannuation Fund Investment Operations Forum 2015 is a two day forum providing invaluable technological, regulatory compliant and best practice insights into improving back and middle office efficiency to drive member loyalty, bottom line profitability and a competitive edge

26 - 28 August 2015 - The 15th Annual Wraps, Platforms & Masterfunds Conference will provide solutions for succeeding in a distribution world of endless possibilities, showcasing strategies to help business achieve the biggest bite of market share, use innovation to overcome problems and support opportunities. Australian Fund Monitors is pleased to offer a discount of $300 to all investors and advisors using coupon code promoFM on registration.

15 September 2015 - The AIMA Australia Hedge Fund Forum 2015 is the annual non-profit hedge fund conference organised by the industry for the industry.

And now for something completely different: Today is the last day of July, ushering in the month of August, so named in 8BC by Julius Caesar in honour of Augustus around the time of several of his great triumphs, including the conquest of Egypt. 

So what you might ask? Well, there has been an email doing the rounds entiltled Silver Pockets Full which claims that this August will be unique in that it has 5 Fridays, 5 Saturdays and 5 Sundays, and that this phenomenon only occurs every 823 years.

For those of you who have received the email and belived it, take another look because you've been conned. Apart from the fact that today is Friday, July 31st, every month with 31 days has three days of the week which occur 5 times, and four that occur 4 times.

It took Hedge Clippings a while to work it out, by which time we had forwarded it to a few people, none of whom seemed to spot the issue either. But it does beg the question, who thinks of these things?

And while on the subject of something completely different.... politicians behaving badly: If we thought a $5,000 helicopter ride for our Speaker of the House was above and beyond, how about the (now former) Deputy Speaker of the House of Lords, Lord Sewel who was reported as saying "The question of whether my behaviour breached the code of conduct is important, but essentially technical". 

This after being filmed snorting cocaine, dressed in a red bra, while cavorting with a couple of prostitutes. 

On that note (a five pound one I understand) have a good week-end.

Regards,

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

Connect with me on LinkedIn Twitter Facebook

Australian Fund Monitors are helping to raise awareness to support research into prevention and cure for cerebral palsy. For more information visit www.cpresearch.org.au or contact me by email.

GST finally on the table

It took New South Wales Premier Mike Baird to get the subject of raising and broadening the GST onto the front pages, and I expect we will never know if this was at the behest of Tony Abbott or Joe Hockey, or if he did it off his own bat. In any event at least it's done, and maybe there can now be a sensible debate about proper tax reform.

Regular readers of Hedge Clippings would know that we have been advocating for (or some would say banging on about) the need to expand the GST since Joe Hockey's first budget was released back in May 2014. In our view the rate could be increased to 15% and broadened across all goods and services, which would merely bring it into line with most other developed countries. In fact at 15% it would still be well under the rate charged in many parts of the world.

Of course the immediate response from some sections of the community, including a couple of State Labour Premiers, was that the GST was an unfair tax because it took a larger proportion of poorer people's incomes compared with higher earners. For some reason they completely ignored (presumably because they chose to) the logical suggestion put forward by Baird that there should be appropriate compensation for those on lower incomes, or on pensions.

They also ignored the fact that higher income earners are also higher spending consumers, and therefore would generate greater GST revenue. They also ignored the fact that now the system is installed, increasing the rate or broadening it is very simple from an administrative and collection perspective.

The risk now would seem to be that either the proposal doesn't make it through to reality, or worse still that a further compromise is done and it will take another 10 or 15 years before anyone has the political will to do it properly. One has to remember that the current system is a compromise in itself, with John Howard giving in to pressure from the Greens to apply GST to only half the economy in order to get it through Parliament.

Assuming the GST does get into the mix at the upcoming Taxation Review, which Abbott had previously indicated would not be the case, it might be helpful if the government allowed other taxation sacred cows, such as negative gearing and superannuation concessions, to be debated at the same time. There seems little point in having a taxation review, like the one organised by the previous government under the care of Ken Henry, if the entire system can't at least be explored.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Pengana Absolute Return Asia Pacific Fund finished -2.39% for the month, compared to the Asia Pacific markets which fell -3.3%. Since inception the Fund has an annualised return of 10.90% p.a.

FUND REVIEWS released this week: Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund; Morphic Global Opportunities Fund

UPCOMING EVENTS:

20 - 21 August 2015 -The 2nd Superannuation Fund Investment Operations Forum 2015 is a two day forum providing invaluable technological, regulatory compliant and best practice insights into improving back and middle office efficiency to drive member loyalty, bottom line profitability and a competitive edge

26 - 28 August 2015 -The 15th Annual Wraps, Platforms & Masterfunds Conferenc ewill provide solutions for succeeding in a distribution world of endless possibilities, showcasing strategies to help business achieve the biggest bite of market share, use innovation to overcome problems and support opportunities. Australian Fund Monitors is pleased to offer a discount of $300to all investors and advisors using coupon codepromoFMon registration.

15 September 2015 -The AIMA Australia Hedge Fund Forum 2015 is the annual non-profit hedge fund conference organised by the industry for the industry.

And finally, best wishes for a happy and healthy week-end ahead,

Regards,

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

Connect with me on LinkedIn Twitter Facebook

Australian Fund Monitors are helping to raise awareness to support research into prevention and cure for cerebral palsy. For more information visit www.cpresearch.org.au or contact me by email.

Greek double somersault and pike, with a twist.

Markets recovered over the past week based on one of the more spectacular backflips in political history. One wonders what the Greek referendum was all about, given the man who having called it, recomended a NO vote, and then got his wish, seemed to ignore the result. Irrespective of whether one belives the Greeks should, or should not accept the medicine their northern neighbours, particularly the Germans were prescribing' hardly matters. No wonder that the 60% of the Greek population that voted no are less than happy, or even decidely grumpy.

What seems odd to fathom is how anyone thinks the so called solution will cure the underlying problems? Adding more new debt to cover that already in place, as any consumer with a bunch of maxed out credit cards in their wallet would, or should know, would seem to be simply kicking the can a further three years down the road. So look out for Grumpy Greeks for at least the next three years, and Grumpy Germans when it all returns to bite them in three years' time. 

And so to China, which along with Greece seems to have been the major topic of Hedge Clippings for the past few weeks, as it has been for the mainstream financial press. Chinese quarterly GDP figures, once again delivered so swiftly that one has to assume they're fudged, came in at 7%, bang on target. What a wonderful co-incidence! Given Singapore's quarterly GDP declined sharply by 4% yoy, and a massive 14% annualised, in no small part as a result of reduced manufacturing and exports to China, it makes the Chinese GDP result even more questionable. 

What makes the data so rubbery is that power comsumption in China grew by just 0.8% over the quarter yoy, well below expectations and one of the lowest rates of quarterly growth in the past 20 years. Crude steel and pig iron production fell 1.7% over the quarter, the first decline since records began in 1994, cement was down 20.5% yoy, and glass by 6.6%, while rail volumes declined by 9%. Even though the reported GDP growth was 7% for the quarter, this was still the lowest in six years, assuming you take them as gospel.

People in some quarters have been unkind enough to call me a cynic (amongst other things) but I can't imagine why.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

The Paragon Fund returned -3.80% versus the ASX 200 Total Return Index's -5.30%, for the month of June 2015. The Fund's annual return since inception has been 18.82% p.a. versus the Index's 7.46% p.a. 

Morphic Global Opportunities Fund outperformed it's benchmark MSCI AC World Total Return in Australian Dollars by 0.31%.

FUND REVIEWS released this week: Monash Absolute Investment Fund; Optimal Australia Absolute Trust

UPCOMING EVENTS:

20 - 21 August 2015 -The 2nd Superannuation Fund Investment Operations Forum 2015 is a two day forum providing invaluable technological, regulatory compliant and best practice insights into improving back and middle office efficiency to drive member loyalty, bottom line profitability and a competitive edge

26 - 28 August 2015 -The 15th Annual Wraps, Platforms & Masterfunds Conference will provide solutions for succeeding in a distribution world of endless possibilities, showcasing strategies to help business achieve the biggest bite of market share, use innovation to overcome problems and support opportunities. Australian Fund Monitors is pleased to offer a discount of $300to all investors and advisors using coupon codepromoFMon registration.

15 September 2015 -The AIMA Australia Hedge Fund Forum 2015 is the annual non-profit hedge fund conference organised by the industry for the industry.

It's a while since "Now For Something Completely Different" featured one of our four legged friends, so this might bring a smile to your face.

And finally, best wishes for a happy and healthy week-end ahead,

Regards,

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

Connect with me on LinkedIn Twitter Facebook

Australian Fund Monitors are helping to raise awareness to support research into prevention and cure for cerebral palsy. For more information visit www.cpresearch.org.au or contact me by email.

Chinese authorities treading a dangerous path

The news that the China Securities Regulatory Commission was prohibiting investors who own more than 5% of a publicly traded company from selling shares for six months is likely to do more to damage their market than save it. The ban will include foreign investors who hold shares that trade on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, and comes after Chinese equities lost more than 25% of their value since mid-June.

If anyone can pull off what the Chinese authorities are trying to do, they can, but we doubt they'll succeed. They might be able to control their own citizens from selling shares in smaller caps, or freezing parcels of 5% or more of a publicly listed companies for six months, but the longer term damage to their reputation, and the confidence of traders, investors, and market participants at home and abroad, will be difficult to overcome.

What the Chinese authorities are doing is freezing liquidity, and in this regard it seems they haven't learned from the lessons of 2008 when central banks, governments, and regulators around the world tried to ban short selling, close markets, and in a word, panic. And if governments and the authorities panic, that's exactly what investors are likely to do as well.

Rudyard Kipling put it quite clearly: "If you can keep your head when all around you are losing theirs and blaming it on you" but it seems the Chinese authorities didn't listen, or haven't read Kipling.

By stopping investors selling smaller stocks, they're going to be forced to sell larger ones, and possibly the better ones, to cover their liquidity requirements, margin calls, their need for cash, or just to stuff under the mattress. While western authorities have probably learned from their mistakes of 2008 and might not make the same ones again in a panic, they also succeeded in restricting longer term liquidity through regulations on banks and other market participants in an effort to avoid another too big to fail scenario.

China threatens to make the Greek tragedy just a pimple by comparison. Whatever eventuates in Greece has largely been anticipated by most savvy investors over the past few years, and if a three year moratorium is agreed to it will probably only extend the agony further. There seems no way that the Greek economy, about the same size as that of the State of New South Wales, is ever going to be able to repay the levels of debt.

And so on to fund performance in June.

It was obviously a rocky ride on global markets in June, initially in response to Greece, but more recently as a result of China's problems. The ASX 200 Accumulation Index fell by 5.3%, and July has seen a continuation of the volatility since. Over the 12 months to the end of June the ASX200 rose only 1.17%, or 5.68% on an accumulation basis. By comparison and based on the 25% of fund returns received to date, equity-based hedge funds fell by only 1.41% in June, an outperformance of almost 4%, with 87% of those outperforming the ASX 200 Accumulation Index. Over the past 12 months equity-based funds have returned 11.57%, double the return of the accumulation index.

In addition to the performance updates below, results of note include Kentgrove Capital, (+4.1%) Totus Alpha Fund, (+6.3% (e)) QATO (+1.89%) Bennelong Long Short (+4.86%). 

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Monash Absolute Investment Fund fell 1.9% in June in a weak Australian equity market, but still taking the Fund's annualised return since inception to 14.11% p.a. 

FUND REVIEWS released this week: Totus Alpha Fund; Insync Global Titans Fund; Supervised High Yield Fund

UPCOMING EVENTS:

20 - 21 August 2015 -The 2nd Superannuation Fund Investment Operations Forum 2015 is a two day forum providing invaluable technological, regulatory compliant and best practice insights into improving back and middle office efficiency to drive member loyalty, bottom line profitability and a competitive edge

26 - 28 August 2015 -The 15th Annual Wraps, Platforms & Masterfunds Conference will provide solutions for succeeding in a distribution world of endless possibilities, showcasing strategies to help business achieve the biggest bite of market share, use innovation to overcome problems and support opportunities. Australian Fund Monitors is pleased to offer a discount of $300to all investors and advisors using coupon codepromoFMon registration.

15 September 2015 -The AIMA Australia Hedge Fund Forum 2015 is the annual non-profit hedge fund conference organised by the industry for the industry.

And finally best wishes for a happy and healthy week-end ahead,

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

Connect with me on LinkedIn Twitter Facebook

Australian Fund Monitors are helping to raise awareness to support research into prevention and cure for cerebral palsy. For more information visit www.cpresearch.org.au or contact me by email.

Grexit Reality - But maybe we need a reality check ourselves?

Actually Greece isn't out of the EU just yet, but the default is a reality, and unless someone blinks, either as a result of Sunday's referendum, or the reality of the consequences of exiting both the political and currency union, the rest as they say, will be history. The problem is no-one can actually say in advance what that history might look like, apart from the certainty that it is going to get messy.

The fact is that the Greek problems were a classic example of the boiling frog syndrome, in that they developed, or simmered for a long time with nobody prepared to fix the problem until it was too late. The release this week of The Grattan Institute's working paper, entitled "Fiscal challenges for Australia", made us wonder if we aren't heading for our own equivalent of the Greek tragedy, even though to many it might seem we're a long way off at present.

At first glance we're sitting, if not pretty, but at the top of the tree when it comes to net levels of Commonwealth government debt to GDP, which is projected to peak at 18% in 2017. This excludes state government debt, and for good measure treats the value of the Future Fund as an asset. However, the Grattan report notes that when it comes to forecasting, the Federal government's forecasts consistently contains highly optimistic assumptions about revenue growth and spending restraint.

For the last six years budget outcomes have been worse than projections, and both the previous and current Governments have been unwilling to address deep seated issues, instead relying either on the mining boom (gone!) and personal income tax bracket creep to raise additional revenue, while refusing to curb excessive spending. In other words we haven't been the only ones not prepared to accept the austerity measures (increase taxes, reduce spending) needed.

In its place we have increased taxes by stealth, otherwise known as bracket creep. According to a recent article in the Financial Review, the government's reliance on bracket creep will push the average full time worker in Australia on $78,000 a year into the second highest tax bracket this financial year, with any earnings above $80,000 subject to a tax rate of 39% including the Medicare levy. This will earn the government, and cost the average income earner, an additional $1,200 per year over the next decade, and take their average tax rate from 21.7% to 27.4% over the next decade.

The current Federal Government has refused to address major issues such as changes to the taxation of superannuation, changes to the GST (as did the previous Labour government), or curbs on negative gearing, thereby excluding three major reforms which would get them out of the fiscal hole that has been deepening for some time. Relying on personal income tax bracket creep seems to be their only solution, with the creep the equivalent of the above mentioned frog in his slowly warming pot.

As the Grattan Institute correctly points out, hoping for the best is not a budget management strategy: It simply justifies putting off hard decisions, and shifts the costs and risks of budget repair onto future generations, with their research showing that each $40 billion dollar deficit increases the lifetime tax burden for households headed by a person aged 25 to 34 by $10,000.

Your Clippings correspondent can rest easy - it won't be his problem. He's waaay older than that, and will be part of the other side (expenditure) of the problem once he starts to draw a pension!

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

The Insync Global Titans Fund increased by 3.0% in May, bringing the Fund's prior 12 month performance to 20.79%.

Totus Alpha Fund was down 1.80% in May, compared to the ASX200 Accumulation Index's 0.40%. However the Fund's annual performance of 23.31% p.a has been strong (Index 14.43% p.a.).

The Signature Quantitative Fund returned -1.20% for May, to bring the annual performance since inception to 11.34%.

Supervised High Yield Fund rose 1.04% during May to bring the Fund's annual return since inception to 10.22%. In the same time frame the RBA Cash Rate returned 3.45%.

FUND REVIEWS released this week:Aurora Fortitude Absolute Return Fund; Pengana Absolute Return Asia Pacific Fund

UPCOMING EVENTS:

20 - 21 August 2015 -The 2nd Superannuation Fund Investment Operations Forum 2015 is a two day forum providing invaluable technological, regulatory compliant and best practice insights into improving back and middle office efficiency to drive member loyalty, bottom line profitability and a competitive edge

26 - 28 August 2015 -The15th Annual Wraps, Platforms & Masterfunds Conference will provide solutions for succeeding in a distribution world of endless possibilities, showcasing strategies to help business achieve the biggest bite of market share, use innovation to overcome problems and support opportunities. Australian Fund Monitors is pleased to offer a discount of $300 to all investors and advisors using coupon code promoFM on registration.

15 September 2015 -The AIMA Australia Hedge Fund Forum 2015 is the annual non-profit hedge fund conference organised by the industry for the industry.

And now for something completely different. An article in today's Guardian Australia suggesting that in the mid eighties, with the Hong Kong handover looming, and the Troubles in Northern Ireland in full swing, UK officials considered relocating 5.5 million Hong Kong citizens to Ulster, but were concerned about how they'd adapt to the weather. Had it been April 1st you might understand it, but really?

And finally best wishes for a happy and healthy week-end ahead,

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

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Australian Fund Monitors are helping to raise awareness to support research into prevention and cure for cerebral palsy. For more information visit www.cpresearch.org.au or contact me by email.

The Game of Greek Chicken Continues

Last week's Clippings noted that Morphic's Jack Lowenstein thought that any Greek solution would (if any) be last minute, but not long lasting. He's certainly right on his first call, although it is too early to tell as yet if there will actually be a solution. We are not sure if they're playing a dangerous game of chicken or not, but it seems that those in the north of the EU are driving a hard bargain, and the Greek PM is between a rock (those in the North) and a hard place, namely the Greek electorate.

The Northerners want hard decisions made both on the revenue and expenditure side. That means increased taxes, and reduced spending. The electorate, who will decide new Greek PM Tsipras' fate at the end of the day, aren't too happy about that. One also has to remember that Tsipras, and his Finance Minister are or were both products of the Greek Communist Party, so fiscal discipline and economic management might not be their natural calling. In any event it seems that the Germans won't budge, and Tsipras has little room to move. For further background read this piece from Arminius Capital's Marcel von Pfyffer.

For what it's worth Marcel's view (he's Swiss Australian, in case you were wondering, not German) is that "Greece will, as sure as the sun sets, default on its debt."

Closer to home the revelations by Fairfax's Adele Ferguson last Saturday (and since) that there was a serious compliance issue at IOOF must have caused shudders in a number of quarters, including ASIC and the board of IOOF itself.

A brief read of IOOF's March 2015 quarterly report would have you beleive that compliance was front and centre in the board's minds. And inded it might have been, but between the board, the stated complaince policy covering 8 full pages, and what is alledged to have occured, there appears to be a significant gap.

This is obviously bad news, not only for IOOF, as it is a further nail in the coffin of much of the financial services sectors' reputation, coming after CBA, Macquarie and others' failings. Strangley in the Senate both sides of politics voted together to knock back a Royal Commission, but Clippings is not sure it would have proven, or changed much. 

As Mike Mangan, quoted (loosely) in the AFR said on Monday there's not going to be a change of behaviour in the industry until some serious sanctions are brought to bear on the wrongdoers. By serious he means jail time, and as he so succinctly put it "the only thing that scares the shit out of white collar workers is jail time."

To be fair a few have gone to jail since 2008, but only a few, including the notable Maddoff in the US, and closer to home Astarra's Shawn Richards. But in the meantime the collective fines and penalties paid by (shareholders of) financial institutions and banks worldwide to cover their corporate and management sins between 2008 and 2014 exceeds $150 billion, enough to go somewhere towards paying off some Greek debt. The "victims" of those misdeeds meanwhile haven't received a cent, penny, centime or drachma! 

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Avenir Value Fund had a strong performance of 4.50% during the month of May, compared to the ASX 200 Accumulation Index's 0.40%.

The Pengana Absolute Return Asia Pacific Fund finished +1% for the month, compared to the HFR Event Driven Index which closed +0.5%.

Since inception in August 2014, QATO Capital Market Neutral Long/Short Fund has returned 37.93%.

Freehold Absolute Return Fund has an annualised return of 17.48% p.a., compared to the ASX200 Accumulation Index's 15.15% p.a.

The Laminar Credit Opportunities Fund returned 0.65% over the month of Month, bringing its annual performance since inception to 18.96%.

FUND REVIEWS released this week: Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund; Optimal Australia Absolute Trust; Morphic Global Opportunities Fund

UPCOMING EVENTS:

20 - 21 August 2015 -The 2nd Superannuation Fund Investment Operations Forum 2015 is a two day forum providing invaluable technological, regulatory compliant and best practice insights into improving back and middle office efficiency to drive member loyalty, bottom line profitability and a competitive edge

26 - 28 August 2015 -The 15th Annual Wraps, Platforms & Masterfunds Conference will provide solutions for succeeding in a distribution world of endless possibilities, showcasing strategies to help business achieve the biggest bite of market share, use innovation to overcome problems and support opportunities. Australian Fund Monitors is pleased to offer a discount of $300 to all investors and advisors using coupon code promoFM on registration.

15 September 2015 -The AIMA Australia Hedge Fund Forum 2015 is the annual non-profit hedge fund conference organised by the industry for the industry.

And finally best wishes for a happy and healthy week-end ahead,

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

Connect with me on LinkedIn Twitter Facebook

Australian Fund Monitors are helping to raise awareness to support research into prevention and cure for cerebral palsy. For more information visit www.cpresearch.org.au or contact me by email.

Greece moves from close to the edge, to on the edge.

Four or maybe five years ago (Hedge Clippings loses track of time as the years roll by) at the GAIM hedge fund conference in Monaco, a show of hands was held to see how many of the 400 or so assembled attendees thought Greece would survive as part of the EU. To the surprise of some, myself included, less than half of the audience were positive about the eventual outcome.

Had further questions been asked about how soon such an exit might occur fewer might have picked 2015, but now  much wrangling has passed it appears that Greece is literally teetering on the edge of the EU cliff, and that a Grexit is more than just a 55/45 possibility. It is doubtful that a minor economy such as Greece's will have too much of a direct impact on Australia, but the indirect effects could be considerable. To be honest our expertise in this area is limited, so the opinion of those with greater knowledge is likely to be much more worthwhile.

Morphic Asset Management's recent blog (27th May) might be slightly more on the money, even if written a month or so ago. Their Greek expert, Irene Kardasis belives that an agreement will be reached sooner or later, and everyone will have to compromise. Meanwhile Morphic's risk averse CIO, Jack Lowenstein believes that the Europeans have already written Greece off, and that any deal, if there is one, will be last minute, but probably not long lasting.

He's right about it being last minute, and will probably be right about it not lasting long as well. You can find Morphic's full comments here.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Allard Investment Fund net of all fees, increased 1.0% during the month of May 2015.

The Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund rose 0.41% in May, to bring the Fund's annual performance since inception to 13.01% compared to the ASX200 Accumulation benchmark's 5.60%.

Morphic Global Opportunities Fund rose 3.79% in May as its benchmark (MSCI AC World Total Return in Australian Dollars) rose 2.91%, resulting inoutperformance of 0.88%.

The Optimal Australia Absolute Trust reported a net positive return in May of 2.04%, compared to the ASX200 Accumulation Index of 0.40%.

The Paragon Fund returned 2.40% versus the ASX 200 Accumulation's 0.40%, for the month of May 2015. The Fund's annual return since inception has been 21.66% p.a. versus the Index's 10.39% p.a.

Cor Capital Fund returned 1.23% bringing the 12-month return to 8.04%, exceeding the RBA Cash Rate Benchmark by 5.6%.

FUND REVIEWS released this week: Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund; Monash Absolute Investment Fund

UPCOMING EVENTS:

20 - 21 August 2015 -The 2nd Superannuation Fund Investment Operations Forum 2015 is a two day forum providing invaluable technological, regulatory compliant and best practice insights into improving back and middle office efficiency to drive member loyalty, bottom line profitability and a competitive edge

26 - 28 August 2015 -The 15th Annual Wraps, Platforms & Masterfunds Conference will provide solutions for succeeding in a distribution world of endless possibilities, showcasing strategies to help business achieve the biggest bite of market share, use innovation to overcome problems and support opportunities. Australian Fund Monitors is pleased to offer a discount of $300 to all investors and advisors using coupon code promoFM on registration.

15 September 2015 -The AIMA Australia Hedge Fund Forum 2015 is the annual non-profit hedge fund conference organised by the industry for the industry.

We are going to avoid any political comments this week, inspite of there being much to comment on: Bill Shorten and the AWU; US Presidential candidates Donald Trump and JEB Bush; Tony Abbott's disdain for clean energy etc. We are probably spoilt for choice, particulary after the Pope's comments on climate change. 

Instead this week's "And Now for Something Completely Different" is altogether more hopeful and uplifting.

And finallybest wishes for a happy and healthy week-end ahead,

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

Connect with me on LinkedIn Twitter Facebook

Australian Fund Monitors are helping to raise awareness to support research into prevention and cure for cerebral palsy. For more information visit www.cpresearch.org.au or contact me by email.