NEWS
7 Mar 2025 - Hedge Clippings | 07 March 2025
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Hedge Clippings | 07 March 2025 Firstly, a correction: Last week's Hedge Clippings, where we likened Donald Trump and Elon Musk to Lewis Carroll's twins, Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee, was half on the mark, and half off it. Seemingly no sooner had we made the connection, than what had been a planned photo/PR opportunity in the Oval Office with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy degenerated into a now infamous example of global diplomacy, Donald style. Very Tweedle Dum, although not that dumb, as it now appears that Zelenskyy is now going back for more - or at least more munitions - even without security guarantees - which given they would be up to Putin to honor, might not be worth much anyway. As Tweedle Donald said, "You don't have the cards". Where we were off the mark was putting Musk in the Tweedle Dee role. JD Vance stole that part - and spectacularly. For those not looking forward to the remainder of Trump's Term 2 as POTUS, watch out when, or if, Vance takes over, either in four years' time, or possibly before that if Trump doesn't make it. Turning to the local news, this week saw a glimmer of hope for Albo's re-election chances in the form of an uptick in Australia's GDP figures, rising 0.6% in the December quarter, its highest level since December 2022, and 1.3% over the year. Slightly less encouraging were the GDP per capita figures, which only rose 0.1%, an improvement at least, but still in negative territory at -0.7% for the year. Finally, an interesting speech by the RBA's Andrew Hauser who as we've mentioned before manages to upend the traditional view of a central banker by being both smart (generally a pre-requisite for the job) and entertaining at the same time. Hauser explained and expounded the VACU view of the world - Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous. Hauser was talking about a general approach, but he might also have been describing the first six weeks of Tweedle Donald's second term. In fact, he was explaining the difficulty the RBA has in getting its monetary policy settings right, which in the past had focused on treading the "narrow path" as Philip Lowe used to put it. He rightly explained that the RBA, having put rates up more slowly, and less than the rest of the world, it was only correct that they had started the easing cycle behind the others as well. In his and his colleagues' eyes they have achieved what has been asked of them - trimmed mean inflation averaged over the past six months back in their preferred 2-3% range, and with employee participation in the workforce at 64.5% - a record level. Congratulations? Maybe, but then of course his words of caution: "Central bankers are paid to worry, not celebrate" particularly given the VACU world in which we live. Number one worry is global trade policy - Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous - courtesy of Tweedle Donald, although Hauser was too polite to put it that way, as he cautioned that maybe markets weren't fully factoring the uncertain risks ahead. Number two risk on Hauser's agenda was the level of spare capacity in Australia's strong labour market, and the potential for inflation to head upwards again if the current low (record) unemployment level falls further as economic activity picks up. This is where the RBA's crystal ball falls into the Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous categories - and possibly all three at the same time. So welcome to the new normal of VACU - into which we'll add another U - the uncertainty of the soon to be announced election. News & Insights Manager Insights | East Coast Capital Management 2024 Responsible Investment and Stewardship Report | 4D Infrastructure 10k Words | February 2025 | Equitable Investors January 2025 Performance News Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund
February 2025 Performance News |
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28 Feb 2025 - Hedge Clippings | 28 February 2025
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Hedge Clippings | 28 February 2025 This week we're going a bit off-piste. Trump or Musk fans might not want to read further. Back when Hedge Clippings was still in short pants (a long, loong time ago!) he had a favourite Aunt who used to recite Lewis Carroll's Alice in Wonderland, and the two characters that come to mind in particular are Tweedledum and Tweedledee. For those less familiar with Carroll's work, T'dum and T'dee were two near identical characters, reminiscent of the current day Tweedle'Donald, and Tweedle'Elon. For the musically inclined, Bob Dylan even recorded a song entitled Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum, (possibly not my favourite Dylan track) on his appropriately entitled 2021 album, Love and Theft:
Webinar Making the most of FundMonitors.com - "Simply Better Research" | FundMonitors.com News & Insights Starting Points Matter | Airlie Funds Management Market Commentary - January | Glenmore Asset Management January 2025 Performance News Insync Global Quality Equity Fund TAMIM Fund: Global High Conviction Unit Class |
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21 Feb 2025 - Hedge Clippings | 21 February 2025
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Hedge Clippings | 21 February 2025 This week's rate cut will forever show the market consensus was correct, however all the comments coming from the RBA, both in their official post meeting media release, and in interviews and comments since, suggest it was a close run thing. As Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on Bloomberg TV, while there was a clear-cut consensus among the board members, the decision was by no means clear-cut, and neither was the decision.
PinPoint's analysis goes on to show that during the first year of an easing cycle, and as cuts work their way through the economy, the following typically occur:
Full details and Pinpoint's Chart pack can be accessed here. News & Insights 2024 Year in Review | FundMonitors.com What happens after the first RBA rate cut? | PinPoint Macro Analytics Investment Perspectives: The investment case for Safehold | Quay Global Investors Magellan Global Quarterly Update | Magellan Asset Management January 2025 Performance News Argonaut Natural Resources Fund Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Seed Funds Management Hybrid Income Fund |
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14 Feb 2025 - Hedge Clippings | 14 February 2025
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Hedge Clippings | 14 February 2025 The RBA has (not surprisingly) kept a very low profile for the last few weeks, not wanting to give any hint as to their thinking prior to the monetary policy announcement due at 2:30 next Tuesday. Not so every other politician, economist, or market observer, with the Treasurer leading the charge, extolling the government's track record, and putting pressure on Governor Michele Bullock and her colleagues, while also trying to claim that he's not doing just that. The market, and most economists, are pretty well convinced that the RBA will start the ball rolling next week (although they're by no means unanimous), citing the latest CPI result of 2.4%, well within the RBA's target range. Those going against the flow note that the RBA prefers the trimmed mean CPI number of 3.2%, which of course excludes electricity, which without generous government rebates both Federal and State, would have risen 0.2% in the December quarter, rather than falling 9.9%, and 25.2% over the year. While voters might be fooled, the RBA well understands that these are temporary handouts and don't want to jump the gun too soon. Also on the negative side is the noise coming out of the US Federal Reserve, with US inflation rising more than market expectations, up 3.3% excluding volatile food and energy prices, leading to doubts about further cuts in the US. Added to Jerome Powell's concerns will be the inflationary effects of Trump's policies, whether it be widespread tariffs, or the mass deportation of low cost illegal immigrants driving up labour prices. Although Trump's policies are unlikely to have an inflationary effect in Australia - although they could arguably prove deflationary depending on how the Tariff Wars all play out - the RBA is likely to be keeping a careful watch on the global knock-on effects of the Donald Show, Series II. Whatever the outcome, Tuesday's decision will be hailed by one side of politics or the other as vindication of either their policy, or opposition thereto. By chance, this week we were reminded of the late, great Robin Williams, who in his 2006 film "Man of the Year", said "Remember this ladies and gentlemen: It's an old phrase, basically anonymous, politicians are a lot like nappies, they should be changed frequently, and for the same reasons. Keep that in mind the next time you vote." Which co-incidentally, won't be too far away. News & Insights Quarterly State of Trend Report - Q4 2024 | East Coast Capital Management Staying grounded | Insync Fund Managers January 2025 Performance News Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund Glenmore Australian Equities Fund |
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7 Feb 2025 - Hedge Clippings | 07 February 2025
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Hedge Clippings | 07 February 2025 The headlines this week have been dominated by a combination of the Trump Show in the US, and Aussie soccer player Sam Kerr's court appearance in London. Tempting as it may be to offer an opinion on one, or the other, we are going to avoid both, instead reverting to our standard fare of considering Australia's - or the RBA's - upcoming interest rate decision. Most, but not all, noted economists have backed their judgment for a rate cut on Tuesday week, while the money market is implying a 90% + chance of a cut. Among those putting their money - or at least their reputations - are the "big four" following release of the December inflation number of just 2.4%, comfortably in the middle of the RBA's 2-3% target range. There are however a few economists - admittedly not from the big four - who are bucking the trend by suggesting the RBA will hold its nerve - and the cash rate at 4.35% where it has been since November 2023, for yet another meeting, citing a couple of reasons: Firstly the "trimmed mean" CPI figure, which the RBA prefers, was above 3%, and the reduction in electricity prices (-17.9%) was thanks to temporary government support. Added to this is the unpredictability of the effects of Trump's tariff policy - or if it comes to that, what the eventual outcome of those tariffs will be. For what it is worth, we expect the RBA to move. In spite of widespread reports of mortgage stress, household spending figures released earlier this week rose 0.4% in December, driven by discretionary spending which rose by 0.6%. Meanwhile the extended National housing market appears to have split into a two-speed market according to PinPoint Economics' Michael Blythe, with prices falling in Sydney, Melbourne, and Canberra, but still rising in Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide. Albanese (aka Fluff and Puff) and Chalmers are obviously pitching for a cut pre-election, and will no doubt claim responsibility accordingly, while ignoring the fact that all but one of the last twelve rate rises, totalling 4.25%, occurred on their watch. More concerning from the government is their legislation currently in the Senate to levy a 15% unrealised capital gains tax (with no allowance for a refund or offset on losses) on superannuation earnings with balances over $3 million, with Chalmers claiming this will only affect 0.5% of super accounts. However, the $3m figure won't be indexed to inflation, so on our simple calculation, and at an annualised return of 6%, a current balance of $525,000 will trigger the tax in 30 years time. Millennials, welcome to saving for your retirement! Hedge Clippings is not a tax expert by any means, nor for that matter is liable for the tax if the legislation is passed, but the concept of a tax on unrealised capital gains, on super or otherwise, seems idiotic - unless you're the treasurer. News & Insights Market Update | Australian Secure Capital Fund Trump's TikTok Intervention | Magellan Asset Management January 2025 Performance News Bennelong Australian Equities Fund Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund |
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31 Jan 2025 - Hedge Clippings | 31 January 2025
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Hedge Clippings | 31 January 2025 This week's December quarter CPI number put a smile on the face of Jim Chalmers as he hit the airwaves to spruik his track record of dropping inflation, while keeping the economy afloat (just) and maintaining strong employment. Of course he was careful to mention that he wasn't trying to influence the independence of the RBA, although that's exactly what he was trying to do, as well as convince voters that he was a safe pair of hands for the next 3 years. To give him his due, Chalmers is a much more convincing advocate of the government's record than the Prime Minister, even if he is only responsible for Treasury and the economy. Albo continues to huff, puff and fluff, and if things don't go his way at the upcoming election, he might be retiring to his new $4 million beachside pad on the NSW central coast sooner than planned. You never know, that could have been part of his "Plan B" when buying it. Back to the December annual inflation figures: The figure of 2.4% annually certainly puts it well within the RBA's central band of 2-3%, even though their preferred measure of inflation, trimmed mean, still sat outside that at 3.2%, albeit down from 3.6% in September. Looking through the RBA's board minutes from their December meeting, their considerations for monetary policy would certainly seem to give them room to move on the 18th of February, with the only caveat that the government electricity rebates, which dropped electricity prices by 9.9% in the December quarter, and 25.2% over the past 12 months, are temporary. Be that as it may, the expectations are now well entrenched for a rate cut prior to the election - even if that's just the message Albo and his Treasurer, are desperate to convey. 2024 Fund Performance Tables: With over 900 managed funds in the fundmonitors.com database, across multiple asset classes, strategies, and peer groups, producing the list of "Top Ten" is always fraught with danger. Assuming funds' performance or returns are the preferred method, then allocation to asset class or peer group is essential to provide an "apples with apples" comparison. The next issue lies in the time period and track record of the particular fund universe. FundMonitors is as guilty as anyone for providing short term data - either by the month, YTD or over the past year - in spite of clear indications that managed funds should be considered for investing over at least 5 to 7 years. In spite of this at the start of each year, we publish the "Top Ten" list for each category, over the past 12 months. At the same time every fund, encouraged or as required by ASIC, will issue the warning that past performance is no guarantee of future performance. In spite of this, there isn't an analyst, advisor or investor, who doesn't (or shouldn't) consider each fund's track record before investing. The tables below, and our analysis, clearly show this when it comes to analysis of each fund's track record, the most recent 12 months performance is not the best predictor of longer term performance - say over 5 or 7 years: Taking Australian equity funds as an example, the top ten funds over one year performed exceptionally well against the ASX200's cumulative return of 11.44%. Table 1: Top 10 Australian Equity Funds over 1 Year, shown by RETURN over 1, 3, 5 and 7 years if applicable (plus 3 year Sharpe). However, if we "rank" those 261 funds over multiple periods to dovetail with suggested investment timeframes, 1, and particularly 3 year periods, don't necessarily correlate over all time frames: Table 2: Top 10 Australian Equity Funds over 1 Year, shown by RANK over 1, 3, 5 and 7 years (plus 3 year Sharpe rank). It is rare for any fund (but not impossible) to perform consistently in the Top 10 over all time periods and across differing market conditions, but taking the Top 10 over 7 years (in spite of ASIC's warning) shows a much higher correlation over all time periods: Table 3: Top 10 Australian Equity Funds over 7 Years, shown by RETURN over 1, 3, 5 and 7 years (plus 3 year Sharpe value). Table 4: Top 10 Australian Equity Funds over 7 Years, shown by RANK over 1, 3, 5 and 7 years (plus 3 year Sharpe rank). It is important to note that the funds in the 7 year Top 10 list, even if they dropped out of the Top 10 over 1, 3 or 5 years, significantly outperformed their ASX200 Benchmark's return of 11.44%, averaging 29.3% over 1 year. Fund Monitors' 2024 Annual Top 10 Fund returns and rankings analysis across all asset classes and peer groups will be available next week. To request a copy directly to your email inbox, please email contact@fundmonitors.com. News & Insights Global Matters: 2025 Outlook | 4D Infrastructure Airlie Australian Share Fund Quarterly Update | Airlie Funds Management December 2024 Performance News Digital Income Fund (Digital Income Class) Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Insync Global Capital Aware Fund TAMIM Fund: Global High Conviction Unit Class |
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24 Jan 2025 - Hedge Clippings | 24 January 2025
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Hedge Clippings | 24 January 2025 Five days in from Trump's inauguration, and no one is left guessing on the question of whether he's as committed in office as his promises were on the campaign trail. With over 200 executive orders (which bypass Congress) reportedly signed since his first day in office, he's set a record and if he keeps going, he'll be approaching a record for his entire term. By comparison, the previous 10 US Presidents (including Trump's first term when he signed a modest 220) only signed an average of 266 executive orders in their entire terms. Maybe he's just trying to break his own record? It has certainly been a whirlwind start, possibly a reflection that this time he expected to win, whereas in 2016 he (and many others) believed that was unthinkable. One thing to remember about Trump, irrespective of whether you think he's the reincarnation of the Messiah, or the devil, is to expect both the expected, and the unexpected, often on the same day, and possibly the same conversation. Frequently the difficulty is sorting his thought bubbles from firm policy - think Greenland for instance. It was too cold in Washington to hold his inauguration out in the open, but maybe his climate change policies will fix that problem, and also turn Greenland... well green, instead of white? On a more serious note, the world is yet to really understand how his major policy initiatives will play out on the world stage, or who outside America will be the beneficiaries - if any. His unashamedly America First policy, particularly around tariffs and border protection, both trade and immigration, are both highly contentious and depending on one's views, or where you live, or your economic position, likely to result in magnificence, or mayhem. As the world's most powerful man, and as leader of the largest economy there doesn't appear to be any other leader or country, apart from Denmark who is miffed about his Greenland stance, or Panama who are prepared to call him out. The remainder, possibly with the exception of Canada's outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, seem to be holding their tongues, and possibly their collective breaths. From Australia's perspective, the same applies, with our ambassador Kevin Rudd, along with Penny Wong, no doubt working their diplomatic skills for all they're worth. Trump has a vindictive streak and won't forget Kevin 07's previous remarks, but to what extent we're friend or foe, winners or losers, remains to be seen. When push comes to shove, our military alliance and Pine Gap are, to the horror of the Greens, likely to help. Turning to fund performances, both December's results and those for the full 12 months of 2024, are summarised below. Performance data in the 12 months to December 2024 across all 900 funds in FundMonitors' database, which covers equities, fixed income, property, infrastructure, alternatives, and digital assets, highlights the mix of outcomes and the importance of careful research across both asset class and fund selection. In the short term - December - global and Asia-focused equity categories delivered mostly positive returns: Leading the way was Equity Long - Asia, up 3.32%, while Equity Long - Large Cap - Global gained 1.24% and Equity Long - Small/Mid Cap - Global added a modest 0.07%. Meanwhile, Australian equities struggled, with Equity Long - Small/Mid Cap - Australia falling 1.58% and Equity Long - Large Cap - Australia down 2.92%. Fixed income categories made slight gains, while property (-3.53%) and infrastructure (-2.57%) experienced declines. The table below shows the highest and lowest returns seen within each broad peer group and across the entire database, both during the month of December 2024 and across the full calendar year.
News & Insights Market Commentary - December | Glenmore Asset Management Long-term Investing | Airlie Funds Management December 2024 Performance News Argonaut Natural Resources Fund Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund |
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17 Jan 2025 - Hedge Clippings | 17 January 2025
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Hedge Clippings | 17 January 2025 Happy New Year! It's January 2025, and it's a Friday, so welcome back to Hedge Clippings' first weekly commentary and round up of performance updates and insights articles for the year, gathered from FundMonitors.com's database of over 900 managed funds. Before we take a look at what's been holding our attention in the world of geo-politics and economics, it's worth taking a quick backward glance at fund performances over the past 12 months. To date (17th of the month) we have received performance updates from 73% of the funds in our database, so the full picture will only emerge in the next week or so, but the funds making the Top 5 performing Peer Groups were all investing globally, reinforcing the rule that asset allocation (or in this case designated as Peer Group) underlines successful performance. Topping the list were funds investing in Digital Assets, which averaged a 12 month return of 70.36% on the back of the rally in Bitcoin (along with other digital coins) which topped US$100,000 for the first time, spurred on, like many things, by Donald Trump's election in November. Equally unsurprising was the average return of Global Equity Long Peer Groups - both Small/Mid cap and Large cap, at 22.6% and 22.04% respectively for the year, against strong benchmark returns - All Countries World Index +29.68%, and the S&P500 Accumulation Index's return of 25%. Australian Equity Funds' average 12 month performance was much in line with the ASX200 Accumulation Index (+11.44%), with Small/Mid Cap funds outperforming at 13.7%, while Large Caps underperformed at 10.4%. All these of course are averages (as are the underlying indices) which leads to the next rule which reinforces the importance of Manager and Fund selection - assuming the objective is to outperform the average, unlike index and ETF funds which aim to replicate the index. The Top 10 Australian Equity funds' 12 month returns ranged from 43.27% to 32.51%, while their peers investing globally ranged from 109% down to 45%. The statistics above are not complete as only just over 70% of December's returns have been reported. Once we have the full data we'll provide the full "Top Ten" lists. And so to the future: Politically - and economically - Donald Trump will continue to dominate globally, while locally, the upcoming Federal election due in mid-May will take centre stage, with Albanese's government dependent on the course of inflation and interest rates - and the possibility of a rate cut - in the intervening period. Jim Chalmers is trying to tell us what a wonderful job he's been doing with the Treasury portfolio, but if that's the case, why are so many people unhappy? News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com 10k Words | January 2025 | Equitable Investors Understanding Bridging Loans: A Comprehensive Guide | Australian Secure Capital Fund December 2024 Performance News 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Bennelong Australian Equities Fund Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund |
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20 Dec 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 20 December 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 20 December 2024 As we in Australia end the year as it started - with the RBA's cash rate stuck at 4.35% - in the US the FOMC cut rates 0.25% to 4.25 to 4.50%, leaving markets unimpressed - not so much because they were hoping for more, but because Jerome Powell flagged a slow down in the rate of cuts in 2025.
News & Insights Investment Perspectives: Why a Trump presidency could be deflationary | Quay Global Investors Proprietary Data - Strategic AI Advantage | Insync Fund Managers Market Commentary - November | Glenmore Asset Management November 2024 Performance News Glenmore Australian Equities Fund TAMIM Fund: Global High Conviction Unit Class Digital Income Fund (Digital Income Class) Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund |
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13 Dec 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 13 December 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 13 December 2024 As soon as Governor Michele Bullock had given the first indications of a softening of the RBA Board's stance on inflation, and with it the possibility of a rate cut, markets responded by factoring in 2 cuts prior to the election. Of course she still cautioned that inflation remained too high, and the outlook remains uncertain - standard fare for post board meeting comments. How much of that softening in tone has been as a result of pressure from your boss, The Treasurer, will probably never be known. And for those who think the RBA Governor's role is independent, just consider who appoints them to the role. If you're dependent on that, you're not independent, and they're the boss! However, market enthusiasm was dampened pretty quickly by Thursday, with the ABS announcing that the November unemployment rate had fallen to just 3.9%. The RBA has previously indicated unemployment would need to be 4.5% or above to dampen demand, and hopefully inflation. So back to the uncertain outlook, and with the Board not sure to meet again until the third week in February, when at least they'll have CPI data for November and December to chew on. Of course, the other additional information they'll have by then is almost a month of Donald Trump's presidency, an issue that Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser focused on in a speech this week, particularly referring to the potential for a tit-for-tat trade war between the US and China, and for that matter other countries, and the effects on Australia. While noting that nothing can be ruled in or out (particularly true when it comes to Trump) Hauser did emphasise that among a long list of 35 world economies, Australia is the least exposed to the negative effect on GDP of a 10% additional US import tariff. This is also reinforced by this week's article from PinPoint Economics, Part 2 of Risks and Issues for 2025 which is included below. PinPoint are suggesting we shouldn't look for a rate cut any time soon - in spite of other central banks cutting theirs. One interesting chart in PinPoint's analysis is titled "Measures of Misery", a term we hadn't been introduced to before - at least not in stark economic statistical terms. PinPoint's growth scenario depends on consumers opening their wallets again, however noting one certainty - at the end of 2024 consumers are miserable, and that the Enhanced Misery Index (based on a mix of CPI, unemployment, debt, and rents) is at the high end of the range over the past 30 years! Bank Hybrids and Franking Credits: Meanwhile back to the Treasurer's wish for influence on the RBA. Certainly no such independence across at APRA, in spite of protestations from head honcho John Lonsdale that this week's decision announcing the phasing out of Bank Hybrids by 2032 was to protect retail investors and ensure stability of the banking sector in times of stress. The decision was clearly a result of a directorate from Treasury (and presumably the Treasurer) with the intention of removing the $1bn per year in franking credit benefits from retail investors. To add insult to injury, APRA claimed that the submissions they invited from those in the industry were broadly supportive of APRA's move. Nicholas Chaplin, Senior Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management, whose Hybrid Income Fund has returned 8.52% over the past 12 months, noted that that the move also significantly reduces direct access to listed fixed income opportunities for Australian retail investors, and that professionally managed funds will no doubt benefit. Bill Shorten tried unsuccessfully to abolish franking credits on equities for mum and dad investors and pensioners, and in doing so lost the 2019 election, and his tilt at the Lodge. At the time, Hedge Clippings penned a poem warning "Wee Willy Short-One" that those investors and pensioners would vote - as they did - and also that Albo was breathing down his neck - as he was! The net result is that potentially the $43 billion in hybrids will now be forced into riskier bank equity, with potentially lower returns. That's great for the stability of the banking system in a crisis, but also an indication that when it comes to franking credits on equities, the government - or this government - still has its eyes on them. News & Insights How Trump will impact equity markets | Magellan Asset Management Mixed market sentiment for 2025 driven by global geopolitics and central bank easing cycles Risks & Issues in 2025 - Part 2 | PinPoint Macro Analytics November 2024 Performance News Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Argonaut Natural Resources Fund |
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