Hedge Clippings | Friday 27 September, 2019
 

Political intrigue and change seem to be occurring so frequently, and so rapidly, that it's difficult for Hedge Clippings to keep pace.

It was less than two weeks ago that the drone strike on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities knocked out 50% of production overnight, causing a near 20% spike in the price of crude as a result. That had the world on edge and wondering about the potential for renewed conflict in the Middle East, and the potential for Iran's war of words with the US to escalate to military conflict.

That would certainly damage world oil supplies. However the US has a vast oil inventory to last 700 days - plus over 8,000 new shale oil wells that had been drilled, but not yet completed - in other words, additional supply which could come online rapidly if required or when/if prices made it economical to do so.

Not so Australia, which has a minuscule stockpile by comparison. In spite of the International Energy Agency (IEA) mandating that countries stockpile 90 days' worth of crude oil, based on current consumption trends we have just 32 days of total petroleum stocks, 28 days of petrol, 30 days of aviation fuel, and 22 days of diesel.

Of course, there is nothing to say that military action won't occur, but one would hope that all parties involved recognise the risks of that happening.

Key to that must be Donald Trump, never far away from political change or intrigue, who seems to be busy fighting battles over his tax returns, plus his more recent phone records with the Ukrainian government. One hopes he'll be sufficiently occupied with those minor issues and not looking for a distraction on the global stage.

And while on the subject of political change or intrigue, this week's antics of Boris and the UK parliament really must take first prize. It seems somewhat fitting that England is the home of the pantomime. No doubt the musical Boris will be opening in the West End shortly, or maybe they'll just relocate an orchestra to Westminster.

And through all this our own ScoMo seemed to be having a dream run on the world stage. Having enjoyed a State dinner as the guest of the President at the White House, and patching up Malcolm's unfortunate phone call, he even managed to defuse or sidestep the criticism of a Scandinavian teenager.

Having had the turmoil of successive prime ministers from both sides of politics, no doubt it was Australia's turn for some political stability.

Hedge Clippings | Friday 20 September, 2019
 

Aside from anticipation surrounding the start of the RWC which kicks off this evening with Japan* taking on Russia, prior to the Wallabies taking on Fiji tomorrow, there hasn't been much of note this week...

Not much? Boris and Her Majesty the Queen (fresh from being embarrassed by former PM David Cameron's latest gaffe of actually opening up on their private conversations) might disagree, as might the Saudi's oil industry. Then again, the US Fed did drop interest rates by 25 basis points - as expected - and Australian unemployment crept up to 5.3% in August from 5.2% the month before, and 4.9% in February, increasing expectations of a further rate cut when the RBA meets in a couple of weeks. Overseas it was announced that globally negative yielding debt has now reached a peak of US$17 trillion, up from $10 trillion at the start of May.

As we have discussed before, whilst erring on the side of caution, given the current outlook for the bond market it is unlikely that the current equity bull run is likely to end. Interest rates are falling and unlikely to rise any time soon, and there's no sign of wages lead inflation or, if it comes to that, any other kind. Although kindling a fire under inflation that any increase in oil prices might create, it is much more likely to add to the potential of an economic slowdown - which would merely trigger calls for further easings in monetary policy, and fiscal stimulus.

Once again we quote and defer to commentary from Longview Economics and their excellent weekly research, who also agree that in the absence of any macro shocks, this bull market looks set to continue, despite some near term challenges for earnings growth. Added to which, they add, Trump's recent comments about a 'halfway house' type trade deal with China, plus his sacking of his most hawkish adviser, and his suggestion of a middle class tax cut, all point to a president who is increasingly focussing on re-election (and, given how he regards it as his key barometer for success, focussing on getting the stock market up).

*For those interested in tonight's team selections, here's the Japanese line up: