One Theme That Can Make You Rich

Marcus Today

October 2025

4-minute read

Back in 2005, I had a client who became quite famous at Bell Securities because he was very good at investing. He was a fairly young guy who had inherited $500,000, and he lived in Bali. He had no stock market experience, but he had a lot of time in Bali.

He turned his hand to the stock market, found me as a broker (I think I was in the media at the time), and used me for information. He didn't really want advice. If I rang him up with my lame morning meeting ideas -- that he should buy Leighton Holdings because our analysts thought it was cheap -- he would say, "Look Marcus, what's the drive? Are its fundamentals changing for the better?" And I would say, "I don't know."

He ended up not asking for advice, just using me for execution. But he was so good at what he was doing, despite a low level of knowledge, that everybody at Bell started following him in the back office admin system. You would hear people talking over lunchtime and in the lift -- "What's Bali Boy doing?" (as we used to call him). People would track his trades, and he was very successful.

2005 was the resources boom era -- it ran from around 2002 to 2008. What he was doing was investing on thematics rather than stock picking. He parked most of that money in BHP and also bought Fortescue, which at the time was pretty much an explorer turning into a producer. He was terribly successful. He had other iron ore stocks too, and also bought into uranium. I think he had Paladin when it was still below 50 cents, and it went to $10. He was playing themes.

If you play themes, the stocks pick themselves. He had read one line about China building "a Brisbane every three months." So they were going to need a lot of iron ore and steel, and that was going to come from Australia. All the iron ore stocks had fundamentals changing for the better. That was the key driver -- fundamentals changing for the better. The catalyst was China building Brisbane every three months.

We kept seeing things happening in the iron ore stocks. The smaller ones were getting taken over. They were declaring special dividends. They were having share buybacks. They were reporting better than expected results. We thought, what does he know? Has he got inside information? Truth is, he knew nothing more than us -- but he did know there was a catalyst. China was driving the iron ore price, which was feeding into the fundamentals of every iron ore stock. And when companies are making money, they announce special dividends, they have better results, they take over other companies. That's what was happening in iron ore.

The lesson from dealing with him was simple: you need fundamentals changing for the better. That takes a catalyst. You have to find something changing in the world, and good things will happen to stocks in good sectors.

Another thing he was particularly good at was being in Bali, looking at Australia from a distance. We were too close. He was like the man in the moon, looking down and saying, "All that iron ore is going to come from Australia." We were looking at the fundamentals of BHP, the PEs and yields. He was looking conceptually, saying Australia was in the perfect spot to exploit China's economic revolution. Objectivity was his edge.

So: objectivity, playing themes, and making sure fundamentals are changing for the better.

Take that to today. One of the strongest themes in the world right now is AI. Companies are doing deals, taking each other over, announcing contracts, reporting better than expected results -- all driven by the investment in cloud infrastructure to facilitate AI, and the demand for computing power.

Objectively, Australians can look at the US and say: yep, that's happening. Objectively, we can also see it's all getting overvalued. Objectively, we can see that at some point it's sentiment-driven and that might change. But for now, that is the theme.

It's a great template for any investing: ask, what's the catalyst? Are the fundamentals changing for the better? If you get that right, the stocks pretty much pick themselves. And the events that surprise on the upside will just happen.

Good things happen to stocks in good sectors.

DISCLAIMER: This content is for general information purposes only and does not constitute personal financial advice. Please consider your own circumstances or seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

Funds operated by this manager:

Marcus Today Equity Income SMA , Marcus Today Growth SMA

Australia's real estate shake-up: Where opportunity lies

Airlie Funds Management

October 2025

(Viewing time: 11 mins)

Airlie's Senior Equities Analyst, Jack McNally discusses how rising construction costs are reshaping Australia's property market and revealing new opportunities in listed REITs.

Funds operated by this manager:

Airlie Australian Share Fund , Airlie Small Companies Fund

Important Information: 

This material has been delivered to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946 AFS Licence No. 304 301 trading as Airlie Funds Management ('Airlie') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation.  This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and Target Market Determination ('TMD') and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making a decision about whether to acquire, or continue to hold, the relevant financial product. A copy of the relevant PDS and TMD relating to an Airlie financial product or service may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4760 or by visiting www.airliefundsmanagement.com.au.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any financial product or service, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to implement its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of an Airlie financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements.

This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. Airlie makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of Airlie. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. No representation or warranty is made with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this material. Airlie will not be responsible or liable for any losses arising from your use or reliance upon any part of the information contained in this material.

Any third party trademarks contained herein are the property of their respective owners and Airlie claims no ownership in, nor any affiliation with, such trademarks.   Any third party trademarks that appear in this material are used for information purposes and only to identify the company names or brands of their respective owners. No affiliation, sponsorship or endorsement should be inferred from the use of these trademarks.  This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Airlie.

Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Simone Haslinger, Chief Executive Officer at  East Coast Capital Management. 

Simon explains ECCM's fully systematic, data-driven trend-following approach across 80+ highly liquid global futures, designed to sidestep human bias and add low-correlated diversification to Australia-heavy portfolios. She highlights real-world examples from gold to feeder cattle, shares a strong multi-year track record, and contrasts liquid alternatives with illiquid private markets-making the case for a meaningful allocation to trend following.

Funds operated by this manager: ECCM Systematic Trend Fund

Why the Gold Price Keeps Rising

Marcus Today

August 2025

Why does the gold price go up? Let me tell you the main reason the gold price goes up.

All the gold dug up in the world is a lump of metal: 20.4m by 20.4m by 20.4m. That's all the gold ever dug up in the world. It grows about 2% per annum with production, and it shrinks about 2% per annum with consumption in things like electronics.

So you've got this inert lump of metal, 20.4m square, sitting there -- earning nothing, doing nothing, looking pretty if it can -- and a whole load of people are running around it deciding what the price is.

In the last couple of decades, two things have happened. One is exchange traded funds came along and bought. If it bought three metres by three metres by three metres, it completely changed the supply dynamics of this inert piece of metal.

It's an amazing thought that if you could create an exchange traded fund backed by physical gold and start selling it, then as you sell you've got to find the gold. So you go into this inert, stable 20.4m cube and start buying chunks of it so that people invest in gold. It was self-fulfilling really. When exchange traded funds started in 2003, people started buying gold as an investment.

It shoved demand up. Consequently, the gold price went from between $200 and $500 an ounce to $3,500. Now it's 20 years later and it's still going on. Exchange traded funds are buying gold, and when gold has a run it's a squeezy commodity to get hold of. That is backed by physical gold. So gold is being squeezed -- and squeezed again.

Add on top of that currency. If you've got an inert piece of metal and everyone's running around it wondering what price it should be, and it's priced in US dollars, then because of a global financial crisis you print twice as many US dollars, the US dollar is worth half as much.

For one thing it was the GFC, then Covid for another. Print twice as many US dollars and the currency is worth half as much. So the price of gold, and anything else priced in US dollars, doubles -- not because gold is worth any more, but because the currency is worth less. That's what's driven the gold price as well.

One of the biggest drivers for the gold price is when the US dollar goes down. You'll find the gold price goes up.

At the moment the US has a lot of debt. That weakens the currency. A currency is really a reflection of how strong an economy is. If they put tariffs in and it slows the US economy down, the US dollar goes down. If they start to cut interest rates, which it looks like they're going to, the currency goes down because it doesn't yield as much.

All this is pushing towards a weaker US dollar. And a weaker US dollar is going to cause the gold price to go up again.

So combined with the risk of "The Big One", a falling US dollar, exchange traded fund buying -- the gold price goes up. And that's what's going on at the moment.

DISCLAIMER: This content is for general information purposes only and does not constitute personal financial advice. Please consider your own circumstances or seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

Funds operated by this manager:

Marcus Today Equity Income SMA , Marcus Today Growth SMA

Australian Equities Reporting Season Update September 2025

Airlie Funds Management

September 2025

Deputy Portfolio Manager Joe Wright and Portfolio Manager Will Granger provide an update of the recent reporting season.

Joe and Will unpack the headline results but also explore the underlying themes that emerged across sectors. They share their perspectives on how companies have navigated a challenging economic environment, highlighting where management teams have delivered strong operational performance and where headwinds remain.

Funds operated by this manager:

Airlie Australian Share Fund , Airlie Small Companies Fund

Important Information: 

This material has been delivered to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946 AFS Licence No. 304 301 trading as Airlie Funds Management ('Airlie') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation.  This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and Target Market Determination ('TMD') and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making a decision about whether to acquire, or continue to hold, the relevant financial product. A copy of the relevant PDS and TMD relating to an Airlie financial product or service may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4760 or by visiting www.airliefundsmanagement.com.au.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any financial product or service, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to implement its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of an Airlie financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements.

This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. Airlie makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of Airlie. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. No representation or warranty is made with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this material. Airlie will not be responsible or liable for any losses arising from your use or reliance upon any part of the information contained in this material.

Any third party trademarks contained herein are the property of their respective owners and Airlie claims no ownership in, nor any affiliation with, such trademarks.   Any third party trademarks that appear in this material are used for information purposes and only to identify the company names or brands of their respective owners. No affiliation, sponsorship or endorsement should be inferred from the use of these trademarks.  This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Airlie.

Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Benjamin Harrison, Chief Investment Officer at Altor Capital. 

In this conversation, Ben shares how the Altor AltFi Income Fund has delivered consistent performance over seven years, combining private credit investments with unique equity kickers. He also discusses their hands-on approach, focus on mid-market corporates, and where he sees the greatest opportunities for growth-making this a valuable watch for investors interested in private credit.

Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with David Franklyn, Managing Director and Co-Head of Funds Management at Argonaut.

David outlines the Argonaut Natural Resources Fund, launched in 2020, which has delivered strong returns by investing across mining companies from majors like BHP to small-cap explorers. He highlights the fund's focus on themes such as energy transition and geopolitical risk, with gold as a safe haven and copper as the key growth driver, while noting that resources remain undervalued but vital to global growth.

Funds operated by this manager: Argonaut Natural Resources Fund , Argonaut Global Gold Fund

Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Clint Maddock, Director and Co-Founder at Digital Asset Funds Management, about the firm's Digital Income Fund and its market-neutral arbitrage strategy in the cryptocurrency space.

Clint explains how the fund has delivered consistent double-digit annual returns with minimal drawdowns, and why growing mainstream adoption of digital assets continues to create opportunities.

Funds operated by this manager:   DAFM Digital Income Fund (Bitcoin Index Class) , DAFM Digital Income Fund (Digital Income Class)

Expert Analysis of the RBA's August 12 Rate Decision

FundMonitors.com

August 2025

Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Nicholas Chaplin, Director and Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management, and Renny Ellis, Director & Head of Portfolio Management at Arculus Funds Management, following the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprise 25 basis point rate cut.

The panel debates whether the decision was justified or politically driven, explores its implications for inflation, the property market, and investors, and examines the potential for further rate cuts. They also discuss global influences, including U.S. tariffs and their impact on inflation and markets.

Expert analysis on what the RBA will do next Tuesday, August 12

FundMonitors.com

August 2025

Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Nicholas Chaplin, Director and Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management, and Renny Ellis, Director & Head of Portfolio Management at Arculus Funds Management, ahead of the RBA's August board meeting. Both accurately predicted July's decision to hold rates and weigh in on whether a cut is likely this time. They discuss key economic indicators--including unemployment, inflation, fiscal stimulus, and consumer sentiment--arguing that while conditions justify holding steady, political pressure may force the RBA's hand.

The conversation also touches on global influences, particularly rising inflation risks in the US driven by tariffs and currency movements. Both managers share their outlook for the remainder of the year, expecting at most one further rate cut, and outline how they're positioning portfolios amid uncertainty in rates, credit markets, and global economic trends.