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5 Jul 2021 - Manager Insights | Cyan Investment Management
Chris Gosselin, CEO of Australian Fund Monitors, speaks with Dean Fergie, Director & Portfolio Manager at Cyan Investment Management. The Cyan C3G Fund has risen +15.45% p.a. since inception in August 2014 against the ASX200 Accumulation Index which has returned +7.97% p.a. on an annualised basis over the same period. The Fund has demonstrated superior performance in falling and volatile markets, with a Sortino ratio (since inception) of 1.22 vs the Index's 0.59, and down-capture ratio of 58.20%.
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5 Jul 2021 - What Are Central Bank Digital Currencies?
What Are Central Bank Digital Currencies? Arminius Capital 18 June 2021
INTRODUCTION We've all heard of digital currencies like Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and other cryptocurrencies. What most people haven't noticed is that the world's central banks are planning to issue their own digital currencies. In fact, China has already been trialling digital renminbi on its unsuspecting citizens. What will central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) mean for banks, payment systems, and national economies? CBDCs differ from other cashless payment instruments such as credit transfers, direct debit, stablecoins, or cryptocurrencies, because they are "government money", being direct liabilities of the central banks. Issuing this "extra currency" involves costs, but CBDCs also allow central banks to see real-time transactions, create audit trails, monitor criminal activities, and prevent money laundering. Central banks had been quietly pondering CBDCs for several years, but most of them kept their ideas under wraps for fear of confusing their political masters. The world's parliaments are largely composed of middle-aged white men who know less about online phenomena than their teenage kids do. Until two years ago, talking about CBDCs would simply confuse the politicians. The turning point came in June 2019 when Facebook unveiled its plan for a global digital currency called "Libra" (as in the tampon). Libra was to be a blockchain-based currency operating under Swiss regulation, which could be used in any country and also for money transfers between countries. In order to avoid the wild fluctuations in value which we have seen in Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies, Libra was to be a "stablecoin", which meant that its value was to be based on a fund of actual currencies and US government bonds. Unfortunately or not, Facebook completely screwed up the launch of Libra. Management was not prepared for the regulatory requirements, even for such basic issues as talking to the Swiss regulator (that speaks 4 languages, in addition to English), incorporating privacy protections, and complying with anti-money-laundering rules. More importantly, the company was totally deluded about its reputation in the eyes of US politicians and the US public. Questioning by US congressmen was mostly very hostile, making it abundantly clear that Facebook was neither liked nor trusted. No, really. Politicians in other countries expressed similar criticisms of Libra and Facebook. In response, the company announced in September 2019 that it would not launch Libra anywhere in the world until it had gained approval from US regulators. This public relations disaster saw the departure of some of Facebook's key partners, extensive re-design of Libra (including basing it on the US dollar alone), the renaming of Libra as "Diem", and the indefinite deferral of any launch. For central banks, however, it now became possible - even desirable! - for them to talk about their plans for digital currencies. A new sense of urgency also came from the Chinese central bank's announcement in October 2019 that it had been developing a digital renminbi since 2014, and would start public trials in April 2020.
TRIALLING CHINA'S DIGITAL RENMINBI China's central bank has not yet finalized the design of its digital renminbi, which is also known as the e-CNY (for electronic Chinese yuan) or DCEP (for Digital Currency and Electronic Payment). DCEP is intended to simplify retail and wholesale digital transactions and inter-bank settlements, with the added aim of reducing money laundering, gambling, corruption, and terrorism financing. The DCEP technology will allow users to transfer money by touching each other's phones, regardless of whether they are connected to the internet. But the DCEP will operate entirely through the banking system - Chinese individuals and companies will not have accounts at the central bank. DCEP will certainly not undermine the Chinese banking system. The four biggest banks, with about 40% market share, are not only State-owned but also play essential roles in the Chinese government's fiscal and monetary policy mechanisms. DCEP will employ encryption which will allow users to carry out transactions without identifying themselves to merchants. The Chinese authorities may also choose to pay some salaries or benefits in DCEP, and they may require some taxes to be paid in DCEP. According to the central bank, DCEP is not intended to replace cash completely, or to supersede the two privately-owned digital payments systems, Alipay and WeChat Pay, which are used by more than 90% of China's population. The two systems are operated by the tech giants Alibaba and Tencent respectively. These systems are able to collect detailed data on all users and their transactions, then to analyse this data in order to market other products to them. Although the central bank has said that DCEP will not replace Alipay and WeChatPay, the owners of these two payment systems know very well that they are being targeted. China's financial regulators have spent the last three years bringing both payments systems very firmly under government control in terms of settling, reporting, and reserving. In 2021 the regulators forced the parent companies to become fully regulated financial holding companies, which meant that they had to clean up their activities, and also to divest a number of lucrative peripheral businesses which they had started in recent years. In addition, Alibaba and Tencent have "given" DCEP access to the details of their hundreds of millions of users. China's tech giants will do exactly what the Party tells them to do, and they WILL do so with visible enthusiasm (cue the enthusiasm, please). The Chinese central bank will be able to see and record all account balances and all transactions for every DCEP unit, and the resulting economy-wide picture will give it a fine-grained, real-time view of macro and micro trends. It will, however, apply the principle of "controllable anonymity" to sharing this information. Participating banks and merchants will only be able to see transactions in which they are involved, and they will not be permitted to retain their part of the transaction data for any longer than needed. The DCEP will eventually be used for cross-border payments, once all the kinks have been ironed out of its domestic operations. For example, it is not yet clear how overseas DCEP users could make purchases in China, or what DCEP access would be given to foreigners visiting China. (See Chorzempa 2021.) But China's central bankers have been at pains to stress that, although DCEP may eventually facilitate the internationalization of the renminbi, it is not intended to compete with the US dollar as a means of international transactions or a global reserve currency. These functions depend on long-term factors such as capital export controls, trade volumes, available swap lines, user preferences, and relative volatility, which are mostly outside government control. (See Zhou 2021.)
THE FIRST CBDC IS ALREADY UP AND RUNNING The Bahamas launched its Sand Dollar on 20 October 2020 after ten months of trials. The new digital currency is not a stablecoin or a cryptocurrency. It is issued as a liability of the Central Bank of the Bahamas, equivalent to the existing paper currency and backed by the same reserves as the paper currency. It is open to wholesale and retail use by all banks, merchants, and payments providers operating in the Bahamas, although prohibited from acceptance by non-domestic payees. The transactions trail is fully auditable and will be monitored for fraud prevention and criminal activities, but user confidentiality will be preserved by strict regulatory standards. Holdings of Sand Dollars by individuals, businesses, and non-supervised financial institutions are subject to size restrictions, so that the Sand Dollar does not operate as a close substitute for traditional bank deposits. Circuit breakers will be used to prevent systemic failures or bank runs. (See Central Bank of the Bahamas 2019.) The Bahamas is over-endowed with banks, but most of them do not cater to the local population of 389,000, who are scattered across more than 700 islands. GDP per head is USD$27,000 (about half of Australia's), with a sharp division between rich and poor. The Sand Dollar is intended to:
The Sand Dollar could be described as cash without the anonymity. Its use is also subject to some restrictions which are intended to reduce systemic risk and protect financial stability. Its economic function is similar to the effect which the spread of mobile phones had in many under-developed countries, where they improved national connectivity quickly and cheaply by skipping the traditional step of building a landline network.
POLICY CONSIDERATIONS For the next few years, CBDCs will be in the design and testing stage. Their parent central banks know that they enjoy the crucial advantage of total security, because a central bank can't go broke, whereas any privately-owned bank may default at any time. (Remember how the GFC took down Lehman, Bear Stearns, Wachovia, ABN Amro, Royal Bank of Scotland, Northern Rock, and many more banks?). But, in order to achieve broad acceptance, CBDCs also need to be cheaper or faster or more efficient or more private or more convenient than the alternatives. (See Brainard 2020.) CBDCs also bring new risks for financial stability. For example, they may be so attractive that they begin to replace bank deposits, thereby depriving banks of a vital source of funds. They may crowd out cash in retail transactions, and thereby limit the choices of the poor, rural, and elderly, as has been happening in China. Because CBDCs can be moved from account to account almost instantaneously, they could trigger a run on a bank, or even a run on the currency. Thanks to Facebook's PR disaster, many governments are now legitimately worried that their money supply and payments system - as well as their citizens' personal data - may one day fall under the control of some foreign technology company. (See Panetta 2021.) Two weeks ago, Fed Governor Lael Brainard set out some of the major policy considerations which need to be taken into account when designing a CBDC:
No matter how a CBDC is designed, it will have to be written into a country's legislation regarding the central bank, legal tender, and the banking system. This task will be neither quick nor easy. What regulators will not do is to give legal tender status to unregulated stablecoins or crypto-currencies, because if these become legal tender, they may be hoarded or suddenly transferred, which would make it possible for financial stability risk to be concentrated in issuers or holders whose operations, cash flows, and balance sheets are not visible to the authorities. That means the regulators might have to deal with "a run on the bank" when it didn't even know there was a bank, let alone that it was in trouble. (See Brainard 2021.)
DESIGN FEATURES OF CBDCS China's DCEP and the Bahamas' Sand Dollar are not the only ways to run a CBDC. For example, both are designed as an account-based, centralized ledger with total visibility for the purpose of preventing money-laundering and other crimes. A CBDC could also be designed as a token-based, anonymous transaction tool, offering the same level of privacy as cash. (See Bache 2021.) To Chinese policymakers, a CBDC is a means of resisting the dominance of the two tech giants Alibaba and Tencent in the payments system. CBDCs may be retail (for everyone) or wholesale (big users only). A retail CBDC may operate through the banking system, like China's, or it may interface directly with consumers and companies, allowing them to own accounts at the central bank. A wholesale CBDC would be restricted to wholesale users (such as banks) who will use them for inter-bank transfers of large sums, or for their reserve accounts at the central bank. (See Estenssoro 2021.) A CBDC may be subject to complete centralized control, like China's, or it may be run as a distributed ledger ("blockchain"), perhaps with partial oversight and selective permissioning in order to restrict its use for illegal activities. No central bank is likely to issue a CBDC which is purely based on a distributed ledger (blockchain), because this would lack the essential functions of transparency and control. Would a CBDC pay interest to its holders? Of course, cash does not pay interest, but there may be reasons why a retail CBDC would do so. A CBDC which paid negative interest (i.e. its value decreased the longer it was owned) would contain a powerful incentive to be spent sooner rather than later. For a wholesale CBDC, however, the issuing central bank might pay variable rates of interest when it wished to incentivize banks to hold CBDC deposits or reserves rather in alternative forms. It is unlikely that CBDCs will be used for cross-border transactions in the near future, because of the legal and administrative difficulties. Any cross-border CBDC would have to meet the regulatory obligations of every jurisdiction where it was used. Because these obligations can differ widely from country to country, the regulatory burden would be considerable. The same goes for the administrative requirements of each country's payment systems. Any cross-border CBDC would have to interface perfectly with payment systems on both sides. There are two forms of cross-border CBDC which might be adopted relatively early. The first is a CBDC which was restricted to central banks only: it might be adopted by a small group of countries, with its acceptance widening over time. The second is what Facebook still hopes to do with Libra/Diem: a CBDC which handles small-value international transfers such as the remittances of migrant workers. Such a CBDC would need regulatory approval of the sending and receiving countries, but it could be hedged around with restrictions to prevent domestic use, money laundering, and criminal activities. This "remittance CBDC" would fill a market gap, because current global payments systems charge 5% to 7% commission on small remittances.
HOW FAR BEHIND ARE OTHER CENTRAL BANKS? At present, more than fifty central banks are researching the costs and benefits associated with issuing their own CBDCs. (See Boar and Wehrli 2021.) Few of them have made their research public, but the European Central Bank (ECB) set out its ideas in detail last year. (See ECB 2020.) The ECB described seven scenarios under which a digital Euro (e-euro) would be worth creating:
The ECB's retail euro would be legal tender, operating through banks and other authorised intermediaries. Protecting privacy would be important, subject to the trade-off against identifying money laundering, tax evasion, and other criminal activities. The amounts which individuals and businesses could hold in their accounts would be limited in size. Initially at least, the e-euro would be restricted to EU residents, with the possibility of short-term exemptions and later expansion. The ECB does leave open the possibility of allowing "bearer e-euros" which would not require the usual identification by users. It also considers the possibility of issuing two types of e-euro: one would be used for basic transactions, offline as well as online, while the other would function as a policy instrument carrying a variable (and potentially negative) interest rate.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THE RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA CREATES ITS OWN CBDC? Last year the Reserve Bank of Australia ("RBA") published a short paper outlining the issues associated with a CBDC. (See Richards 2020 and Richards et al. 2020.) The paper concluded that CBDCs were a solution for problems that did not exist in Australia. We already have financial inclusivity, in that almost all Australians have transaction accounts and the means to execute online transactions via mobile phones, credit cards, etc. The current payments system is efficient, relatively cheap, and open to new players. The other policy considerations listed by The US Federal Reserve's Governor Brainard are not material issues in Australia. So Australia's big four banks need not worry about CBDCs in the next few years. The RBA indicated that it would continue to monitor developments in the global CBDC space, and that it would not hesitate to introduce a CBDC if there were compelling reasons. The RBA paper did discuss some of the design choices for an Australian CBDC. Preliminary indications are:
CONCLUSION The digitization of money has only just begun. It will take at least five years before we will have realistic assessments of what works and what doesn't. The design choices which central banks make in their digital currencies will eventually affect all the players in the financial system. Arminius Capital will provide regular updates on significant developments. REFERENCES Bache, Ida Wolden. 2021. Fintech, Big Tech, and Cryptos - will new technology render banks obsolete? Oslo: Norges Bank. Speech 11 May 2021. Boar, Condruta and Wehrli, Andreas. 2021. Ready, steady, go? - Results of the third BIS survey on central bank digital currency. Basel: Bank for International Settlements. BIS Paper 114. Brainard, Lael. 2021. Private Money and Central Bank Money as Payments Go Digital: an Update on CBDCs. Washington DC: US Federal Reserve. Speech 24 May 2021. Brainard, Lael. 2020. The Digitalization of Payments and Currency: Some Issues for Consideration. Washington DC: US Federal Reserve. Speech 05 Feb 2020. Brunnermeier, Markus K., James, Harold, and Landau, Jean-Pierre. 2021. The Digitalization of Money. Basel: Bank for International Settlements. BIS Working Paper 941. Central Bank of the Bahamas. 2019. Project Sand Dollar: A Bahamas Payments System Modernization Initiative. Nassau: Central Bank of the Bahamas. Chorzempa, Martin. 2021. Testimony to US-China Economic and Security Review Commission. Panel 4: China's Pursuit of Leadership in Digital Currency. Washington DC: Peter G. Peterson Institute of International Economics. Estenssoro, Amalia. 2021. Central Bank Digital Currencies: Back to the Future. St Louis: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. European Central Bank. 2020. Report on a Digital Euro. Frankfurt: European Central Bank. Panetta, Fabio. 2021. Evolution or revolution: the impact of a digital Euro on the financial system. Frankfurt: European Central Bank. Speech 10 February 2021. Richards, Tony. 2020. Retail Central Bank Digital Currency: Design Considerations, Rationales, and Implications. Sydney: Reserve Bank of Australia. Speech 14 October 2020. Richards, Tony, et al. 2020. "Retail Central Bank Digital Currency: Design Considerations, Rationales, and Implications." Reserve Bank Bulletin, September 2020. Sydney: Reserve Bank of Australia. Zhou, Xiaochuan. 2021. The Digital Currency and Electronic Payment System. Beijing: Tsinghua PBSCF Global Finance Forum. Speech 22 May 2021.
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2 Jul 2021 - Hedge Clippings | 02 July 2021
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2 Jul 2021 - Performance Report: Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund
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Fund Overview | The overriding objective of the Concentrated Australian Equities Fund is to seek investment opportunities which are under-appreciated and have the potential to deliver positive earnings, while satisfying our stringent quality criteria. Bennelong's investment process combines bottom-up fundamental analysis together with proprietary investment tools which are used to build and maintain high quality portfolios that are risk aware. The portfolio typically consists of 20-35 high-conviction stocks from the S&P/ASX 300 Index. The Fund may invest in securities listed on other exchanges where such securities relate to ASX-listed securities. Derivative instruments are mainly used to replicate underlying positions and hedge market and company specific risks. |
Manager Comments | Over the past 12 months, the fund's volatility has been 10.62% compared with the index's volatility of 10.43%. Since inception the fund's volatility has been 14.95% vs the index's volatility of 13.63%. The fund's Sortino ratio (which excludes volatility in positive months) vs the index has ranged from a maximum of 16.81 over the most recent 12 months, to a low of 0.77 over the past 3 years. Since inception the fund's Sortino ratio has been 1.44 vs the index's 0.81. Since inception in the months when the market was positive the fund provided positive returns 92% of the time. Over all other time periods its best result has been 100% over 2 years. It has an up-capture ratio ranging between 153.31% (since inception) and 109.55% (3 years), and over the most recent 12 months has provided an up-capture ratio of 123.87%. |
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1 Jul 2021 - Does Higher Volatility Translate into a Higher Return?
Does Higher Volatility Translate into a Higher Return? Australian Fund Monitors 30 June 2021 There is a long held ideal that when investing in equities, the level of volatility is correlated to the return; the more risk you put on the table the greater the return you expect to get back. Of course, the amount of time invested also needs to be considered, but for investments over 3 years (and beyond) this ideal is generally accepted, as evidenced by the number of scatter graphs used in fund marketing material. Volatility is managed by fund managers in several different ways, but generally it comes down to portfolio construction. The number of stocks in the portfolio, the size of the position held in each stock (and sector), and the buy and sell triggers, all affect the volatility of the portfolio. Typically, the funds management industry uses Standard Deviation as a measure of volatility. Standard Deviation measures the dispersion of monthly returns both above, and below the average monthly return. The smaller the funds standard deviation, the less volatile it is. The larger the standard deviation, the more dispersed the returns are and the more volatile it is. But does this show through in data, and is past volatility any sort of indicator of how a manager should have performed? We have looked at the returns and standard deviation over the past 3 and 5 years of all Long Only Australian Equity Funds (107 funds) on the www.fundmonitors.com database and broken these into quintile rankings. The funds with the best performance fall into the 5th quintile (best) and funds with the lowest standard deviation fall into the 5th quintile (best). Looking at the data over 3 years as at the end of May 2021:
Running the data over 5 years shows that standard deviation and return become slightly more correlated:
Clearly, while there is some minor correlation in this data, the ideal of using standard deviation as a measure of manager skill, especially in isolation, is not a prudent investment conclusion. Investors and advisors should be looking at multiple risk data points such as Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Up and Down Capture and Downside Deviation, to help them make the most effective investment decisions.
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1 Jul 2021 - New Funds on Fundmonitors.com
New Funds on Fundmonitors.com |
Below are some of the funds we've recently added to our database. Follow the links to view each fund's profile, where you'll have access to their offer documents, monthly reports, historical returns, performance analytics, rankings, research, platform availability, and news & insights. |
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Holon Photon Fund |
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Legg Mason Martin Currie Emerging Markets Fund
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Blackmore Capital Australian Equities Income Portfolio
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Blackmore Capital Blended Australian Equities Portfolio
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Ares Diversified Credit Fund
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Ares Global Credit Income Fund
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30 Jun 2021 - Performance Report: Surrey Australian Equities Fund
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Fund Overview | The Investment Manager follows a defined investment process which is underpinned by detailed bottom up fundamental analysis, overlayed with sectoral and macroeconomic research. This is combined with an extensive company visitation program where we endeavour to meet with company management and with other stakeholders such as suppliers, customers and industry bodies to improve our information set. Surrey Asset Management defines its investment process as Qualitative, Quantitative and Value Latencies (QQV). In essence, the Investment Manager thoroughly researches an investment's qualitative and quantitative characteristics in an attempt to find value latencies not yet reflected in the share price and then clearly defines a roadmap to realisation of those latencies. Developing this roadmap is a key step in the investment process. By articulating a clear pathway as to how and when an investment can realise what the Investment Manager sees as latent value, defines the investment proposition and lessens the impact of cognitive dissonance. This is undertaken with a philosophical underpinning of fact-based investing, transparency, authenticity and accountability. |
Manager Comments | The fund's Sharpe ratio has ranged from a high of 1.96 over the most recent 12 months, to a low of 0.61 over the past 3 years. Since inception the fund's Sharpe ratio has been 0.61 vs the index which has a Sharpe ratio of 0.6. The fund's Sortino ratio (which excludes volatility in positive months) vs the index has also ranged from a maximum of 8.06 over the most recent 12 months, to a low of 0.77 over the past 3 years. Since inception the fund's Sortino ratio has been 0.77 vs the index's 0.64. Since inception in the months when the market was positive the fund provided positive returns 81% of the time. Over all other time periods its best result has been 81% over 3 years. It has an up-capture ratio of 122.7% since inception and 110.09% over the past 12 months. Across all other time periods, it has ranged between 142.28% (2 years) and 122.7% (3 years). |
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30 Jun 2021 - Fund Review: Insync Global Capital Aware Fund May 2021
INSYNC GLOBAL CAPITAL AWARE FUND
Attached is our most recently updated Fund Review on the Insync Global Capital Aware Fund.
We would like to highlight the following:
- The Global Capital Aware Fund invests in a concentrated portfolio of 15-30 stocks, targeting exceptional, large cap global companies with a strong focus on dividend growth and downside protection.
- Portfolio selection is driven by a core strategy of investing in companies with sustainable growth in dividends, high returns on capital, positive free cash flows and strong balance sheets.
- Emphasis on limiting downside risk is through extensive company research, the ability to hold cash and long protective index put options.
For further details on the Fund, please do not hesitate to contact us.


29 Jun 2021 - Performance Report: Quay Global Real Estate Fund
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Fund Overview | The Fund will invest in a number of global listed real estate companies, groups or funds. The investment strategy is to make investments in real estate securities at a price that will deliver a real, after inflation, total return of 5% per annum (before costs and fees), inclusive of distributions over a longer-term period. The Investment Strategy is indifferent to the constraints of any index benchmarks and is relatively concentrated in its number of investments. The Fund is expected to own between 20 and 40 securities, and from time to time up to 20% of the portfolio maybe invested in cash. The Fund is $A un-hedged. |
Manager Comments | Over the past 12 months, the fund's volatility has been 8.16%. Since inception the fund's volatility has been 11.66%. The fund's May return was almost entirely driven by local stock performance (currency only added +0.2%). UK Storage led the way with outstanding operational results, while German residential (driven by recent corporate activity) underpinned the performance for the month. Quay noted that, as per previous months, laggards continue to reflect the Covid defensive sectors including Life Science Office and Industrial property. Despite recent under-performance, Quay continue to expect these companies to comfortably exceed their long-term total return target of CPI + 5%. Quay believe the meaningful company profit recovery now underway will feed itself into real estate performance as companies gain confidence to 'invest' in new leases, residents return to work, and shoppers re-discover the mall. They continue to see excellent long term returns across their investees and remain near fully invested. |
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