NEWS
21 Aug 2026 - Hedge Clippings | 21 August 2026
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Hedge Clippings | 21 August 2026 Unemployment back to April's post-COVID high, real wages going backwards on both sides of the Pacific, and a US Treasury bond buyback that was unwound within a day of being announced, while the war it was reacting to kept getting worse, not better. Unemployment hits 4.5% again, the highest of the post-COVID era Thursday's Labour Force release showed seasonally adjusted unemployment rising to 4.5% in July, up from 4.4% in both May and June, and back to May's number, the highest reading of the post-COVID era in trend terms. Employment fell by 15,800 mainly driven by a fall of 32,200 part-time jobs, and total hours worked fell by 1 million, although still 21 million hours higher than a year ago. Participation eased to 66.9% from 67.0%. This is the labour market evidence, alongside the July CPI data due next Wednesday, that will be on the agenda when the RBA next meets on 29 September. Despite the softer July employment number, the RBA reportedly still views the labour market as a little tight even though it has been steadily rising since the post COVID low of 3.4% in July 2022. Economists now rate a September rate hike as extremely unlikely rather than impossible, while the chances of a rate cut - not even contemplated by the board at the RBA's last meeting - would also seem unlikely unless July's CPI surprises on the downside, or consumer sentiment falls further thanks to the budget's tax changes. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the unemployment rate will continue to rise, particularly given the decline in the property market and the resultant sharp fall in mortgage processing by the big banks, and which are already flowing through to those employed in related fields such as conveyancing. While some are pointing to three consecutive rate rises from the RBA as the cause, only "Melons" Albanese and Jim Chalmers are denying that the budget changes are partly responsible. A fourth straight month of underemployment above 6%, with full-time growth offset by a bigger fall in part-time hours, isn't a labour market falling off a cliff. The housing market losing momentum will also add to the areas the RBA will be watching closely. US$40 trillion in debt, 30 year yields at 19 year high, and a bond buyback that didn't survive the day Total US public debt outstanding topped US$40 trillion for the first time on 19 August, the same day the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007 amid the renewed Middle East escalation and a deteriorating fiscal outlook. The US Treasury responded with a surprise announcement doubling its long-dated bond buyback size from US$2 billion to at least US$4 billion per operation, effective 9 September through 4 November, its second intervention this month. Yields fell sharply on the announcement, the 30 year down 9 basis points to 5.196%, but the relief didn't last: by Thursday the 30 yield had risen over 7 basis points to as much as 5.27%, erasing the prior day's move entirely. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called it a "big tool kit," and Trump, asked if Americans should worry about the bond market, said simply, "No, I don't think so." A buyback fully unwound within 24 hours is a useful data point on its own: it tells you the market's real concern isn't liquidity, it's the underlying fiscal trajectory, which no buyback programme actually fixes. Term premium, not plumbing, is doing the work here. Day 173: the war that was meant to last weeks now has the UAE watching for ballistic missiles, while Trump threatens US ally Oman. The US-Israel war on Iran, now in its sixth month, escalated rather than resolved this week. The UAE reported detecting two ballistic missiles launched toward the country from Iran, Israel struck an airbase in Syria's Idlib province, drawing condemnation from both the US and Turkey, and Trump posted an image of the Strait of Hormuz labelled "New US territory" after Iran restated its core demands for reopening it. Trump separately said no talks were underway, a day after suggesting a back channel had opened with Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps. Oil climbed to its highest level since July as hopes of a near-term resolution faded again, the fourth such reversal since February. Every prior "close to a deal" moment in this conflict has been followed by escalation within days. Markets pricing imminent resolution are trading the headline, not the pattern. The pattern, five months running, is escalation, with Trump seemingly running out of options - and time - prior to the mid-term elections. News | Insights Manager Insights | Sharpbridge Funds Management Great technology, poor return | Insync Fund Managers Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management July 2026 Performance News Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund |
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14 Aug 2026 - Hedge Clippings | 14 August 2026
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Hedge Clippings | 14 August 2026 The RBA held, as priced, but the sharper stories this week sit underneath it: gold's brutal round trip, a Chinese economy still stuck in deflation, and an open fight over who actually controls $4.5 trillion of Australian superannuation. RBA holds at 4.35%: why 2 to 3% is a late-2027 story, and why the board just named an unresolved war as the reason
The RBA is now running an explicit eighteen month timeline to target and openly naming an unresolved war as the reason it can't commit to more certainty. Every Hormuz headline is now effectively Australian monetary policy news. US CPI cools for a second month, but the number that matters is negative: wages US headline CPI rose 0.1% in July, easing the annual rate to 3.4%. Core CPI eased to 2.5%, a five-month low, both in line with consensus. Shelter, the most stubborn line item all year, rose just 0.1%, while gasoline fell 2.9% for the month despite remaining up 24.6% annually. The more uncomfortable number sits beneath the headline: average hourly earnings growth of 3.2% is now running below CPI, real wages have gone backwards for four consecutive months. Navy Federal's Heather Long called this "the key issue" for middle and lower income households. The Fed doesn't meet again until 16 September, and this in-line print removes any near-term pressure to act. Australia and the US are running near-identical scripts: gradual disinflation, a central bank in no hurry to move, and a real economy still absorbing the lagged cost of the price level itself, not just its rate of change. Canberra wants your super fund to think like a sovereign wealth fund. The industry's answer, so far, is no. At the AFR's Superannuation Lending Roundtable, Prime Minister Albanese told a room of major fund and bank CEOs there was "real potential" to treat the country's $4.5 trillion superannuation pool as "a national asset," pushing funds toward more domestic business lending and framing offshore super investment as "hard money to provide soft power." The response was immediate: Westpac chief executive Anthony Miller told the Prime Minister directly to "not touch the super complex, don't direct it, don't tell it where to go." UniSuper's Peter Pearce separately noted Australia's private credit market is simply too small to absorb much more domestic capital without compromising diversification, the same structural constraint our own Income and Credit review identifies. The debate remains unresolved, and it now sits alongside a sharper enforcement signal: ASIC posted a record $830 million in civil penalties for FY2025-26, an eightfold increase on the prior year, with member services failures and misleading conduct as explicit ongoing priorities. A trustee's sole legal duty is members' best financial interests, not national economic objectives. Any real move toward directed lending needs a mandate change, not a roundtable request, and trustees who bend to informal pressure without one are taking on genuine legal risk. The PM, a podcast, and Japanese melons
Anthony Albanese's July appearance on Nikki Osborne's Bush Deep podcast is still making headlines. First came an apology over a "shag, marry, date" segment involving Kylie Minogue. Now a second clip has resurfaced, with Albanese criticised for embracing a suggestive joke about a pair of melons gifted by Japan's female prime minister. Diplomacy, apparently, is easier than podcasting, particularly over a bottle of whiskey. Australian Equities and Real Assets: two more chapters of the FY2026 review, live now Includes 368 funds across five peer groups. The headline findings: 65% of Australian large cap funds finished below the ASX 200, while Infrastructure returned +12.45% against just +0.99% for Property. Across identical infrastructure portfolios, hedged classes outperformed their unhedged twins by an average +7.45%, making currency positioning one of the year's biggest differentiators. Full detail, fund by fund, in the reports. Australian Equities Peer Group Review Real Assets Review - Property & Infrastructure News | Insights Expert Analysis of the RBA's Aug 11 Rate Decision Australian Secure Capital Fund - Property Update July 2026 Performance News Airlie Australian Share Fund Active ETF (ASX:AASF) Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund |
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7 Aug 2026 - Hedge Clippings | 07 August 2026
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Hedge Clippings | 07 August 2026 This week: Domestically, a trade surprise and an RBA decision already priced in by the market. Offshore, a possible end to the five month Hormuz standoff, and a genuine split forming in how markets are pricing the AI capex build out. Plus, two further FY2026 AFM Peer Group Reviews, and Friday's brief item. The RBA meets next Tuesday: a hold is priced in, and Thursday's trade surprise reinforces the case The RBA's Monetary Policy Board meets next Monday and Tuesday, with the decision due at 2:30 on Tuesday afternoon. Following the softer than expected Q2 CPI, all four major banks now forecast a hold at 4.35%, with Westpac dropping its earlier hike call. Market pricing still assigns roughly 20 to 30% to a surprise hike, since trimmed mean at 3.6% remains above target and Governor Bullock has said the board is "prepared to act as required." The RBA will meet without the benefit of knowing the July CPI result, not due until the 26th of August, and which won't include the re-introduction of the full fuel excise levy of 53.7 cents per liter from the third of August. The RBA's following meeting, due on the 28th and 29th of September, will also be without the CPI result, not due until the following day. By that time the slow-down in the property market should have impacted consumer confidence and spending sufficiently to offset the fuel price increase Thursday's trade data added a supportive point for the doves: a A$1.93 bn surplus in June, reversing May's A$2.37 bn deficit, on a 9.6% jump in exports led by iron ore, coal, LNG and gold, while imports fell as fuel costs eased. The outlook favours a hold, but watch the Statement on Monetary Policy's language on housing and the labour market, not the decision itself, for the real signal for September.
Five months on, a Hormuz deal is close again, and markets are already pricing it as real Iran and Oman say they are in the "final stage" of a framework for a safe shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump said this week a formal announcement could land "as early as Wednesday." Markets have effectively pre-traded the news: the S&P 500 and Dow both set records on 4th of August, and Brent has settled back to around $79 a barrel. But this is the same conflict that has produced an interim deal, a collapse, a naval blockade, and multiple missed deadlines since February, and Wednesday's optimism sat alongside a Houthi claimed attack on a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea the same day. Any final deal is also contingent on the US lifting its port blockade, a concession Washington has resisted conceding as a unilateral move. Five months of stop-start diplomacy is a pattern, not a prelude. Markets pricing this as resolved carry genuine reversal risk if the deal slips again, as it has twice already. For Australian portfolios, sustained oil relief still matters most through the RBA's disinflation path, not through direct energy exposure. US$730 bn in hyperscaler capex, and markets are finally pricing the difference between spending and proof Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta have guided to a combined US$730 billion in capital expenditure in 2026, up roughly 78% from $410 billion in 2025, and nearly triple 2024's spend, almost entirely on AI infrastructure and data centres. The market's reaction to that number has stopped being uniform. When Alphabet raised its capex guidance to US$200 billion alongside Q2 results in late July, its shares fell 7% in a session, dragging Amazon, Meta and Microsoft down with it, on investor concern about debt funded buildouts with uncertain payback. Amazon's long-term debt rose 81% to US$119 billion in a single quarter, Alphabet's rose 111% to US$98 billion, and Alphabet turned free cash flow negative for the first time. A week later, Microsoft's own report reversed the mood entirely: Azure growth accelerated to 43%, the fastest since 2022, and the stock jumped 15.5% in a day. The difference was not the spending, it was whether the spending was visibly converting into revenue. This is the healthiest version of an AI bubble debate a market can have, discrimination by evidence rather than blanket enthusiasm or blanket panic. It doesn't resolve the aggregate question, US$730 billion still needs to earn a return eventually, but it means capital is no longer being allocated on narrative alone. Meanwhile Australia's Energy Minister and climate warrior Chris Bowen put his own stamp on the data centre/capex debate with a promise to veto any state plans to power the facilities with non-green energy. Where are the small scale nuclear plans when they're needed? A reminder that estimates hearings test everyone's attention span ACT Opposition Leader Mark Parton admitted texting "my job is boring" during a committee hearing. He denied a complaint alleging it was sent to a sex worker, but did not identify the recipient. The Commissioner for Standards dismissed the complaint. Some MPs just put their boredom in writing. Alternative Strategies and Income & Credit: two more chapters of the FY2026 review, live now Includes 361 funds across seven peer groups. The headline finding: appraisal priced credit reports Sharpe ratios up to 12.85 against 0.52 for market priced Australian bonds, a gap that reflects how rarely the asset is marked, not how little risk it carries. Full detail, fund by fund, in the reports. Diversified & Alternatives Strategies Report | Income & Credit Peer Group Report News | Insights Manager Insights | East Coast Capital Management 2026 mid-year update & outlook | 4D Infrastructure Investment Perspectives: How the US equity cycle ends | Quay Global Investors July 2026 Performance News |
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31 Jul 2026 - Hedge Clippings | 31 July 2026
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Hedge Clippings | 31 July 2026 Four separate data points landed this week and pointed in the same direction: housing demand is slowing more sharply than the RBA expected, while inflation undershot market and RBA forecasts. Apart from anything else, that just confirms what has been apparent since Phil Lowe's infamous 2021 guidance that rates wouldn't rise until 2024: the RBA is not a reliable predictor of the future. The RBA's housing dilemma, in one week: softer-than-expected CPI, a slowing market, and mortgage demand down 15%
In reality the data wasn't great - it was just not as bad as expected. This week connected four data points that had been sitting separately for months. NAB reported their home loan applications fell 15% in the June quarter, with early stress signs also appearing in business lending. That follows Westpac reporting in June that their average monthly home-loan applications in April and May were approximately 10% below the March-quarter average. Both point to the same cause: the government's ill-conceived CGT and negative gearing reforms, combined with three RBA hikes since February, have specifically targeted investor demand for established property, and the property market is responding exactly as expected - even if not forecast by either the Treasurer or the RBA. One day before the CPI release, Governor Michele Bullock told the Anika Foundation lunch in Sydney that the housing market had weakened more than the RBA's own May forecast expected, and that the board remained prepared to raise the cash rate further if needed. Then, on Wednesday, the actual data undercut that hawkish tone. Monthly headline CPI eased to 3.8% in the year to June and the monthly trimmed mean was unchanged at 3.6%, below market forecasts of 4.0% and 3.7%, respectively; on the RBA's preferred quarterly measure, trimmed-mean inflation rose 0.8% in the June quarter and 3.6% over the year, below the RBA's 3.8% forecast. Market-implied odds of an August hike fell from 21% to approximately 3%-4%, while three-year government bond yields fell 10 basis points to 4.482%. The mortgage and CPI data are consistent with tighter financial conditions restraining demand, although the evidence does not isolate the effects of tax reform from higher interest rates, weaker sentiment and broader uncertainty. That strengthens the case for the RBA Board to hold the cash rate in August. Whether the cash rate remains unchanged through year-end will depend on the broader flow of inflation, labour-market, spending and global economic data. Overseas the Fed's longest pause since 2008 coupled with Microsoft's biggest day in years The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50 to 3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting on 29 July which is the longest pause since 2008. The 9-3 vote included three dissents from regional presidents pushing for a hike, and new Chair Kevin Warsh continued his deliberately ambiguous style, telling reporters markets should learn to "play the ball, not the referee." A day later, Microsoft delivered the single biggest one day gain of this earnings season: shares jumped 15.5%, adding roughly $450 bn in market value, after revenue hit $90 bn and Azure growth accelerated to 43%, its fastest pace since 2022. The result provided fresh evidence that Microsoft's AI and cloud spending was translating into revenue growth, and the rally spread to chipmakers, with Micron rising more than 18% and AMD about 13% in the same session. One earnings report does not settle the AI-capex debate, as Microsoft still expects approximately $175 bn of capital expenditure in calendar 2026, but it gave investors a material data point after months of scepticism about returns. The 9-point regional allocation gap Australian investors cannot ignore Alongside our FY2026 domestic review, we have released the Global Equity Peer Group Review, covering 243 funds across global large-cap, global small and mid-cap, and global alternative equity strategies. Australian large cap funds returned an average 2.22% in FY2026, compared with 11.14% for their global large cap peers. That 8.92% gap meant regional allocation mattered more than manager selection within the peer groups reviewed. The review examines how gold, resources and momentum exposure shaped the year's rankings, why some strategies converted those tailwinds into stronger risk-adjusted outcomes, and where currency hedging materially changed investor returns. Across eight matched strategy pairs, AUD-hedged classes outperformed their unhedged equivalents by 7.3% to 9.3%. Rather than focusing only on the funds at the top of the one-year tables, the report explains why performance diverged and what investors should consider across returns, volatility, currency exposure and drawdowns. News | Insights Manager Insights | FarmCap 10k Words | Equitable Investors Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management June 2026 Performance News Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund |
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24 Jul 2026 - Hedge Clippings |24 July 2026
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Hedge Clippings | 17 July 2026 Two data releases, and one disruptive dog dominated Hedge Clippings' attention this week; Victoria's unemployment cracked 5%, and economists laid out their forecasts ahead of next week's CPI. Finally, our FY2026 Fund Manager Review lands with a lesson worth reading before you look at a single year's return. National jobs beat forecasts, but Victoria's unemployment rate just hit 5.1%, its worst since 2021
This week's ABS's June labour force data beat expectations comfortably. Employment rose 76,000 against a forecast of 15,000, split between 47,000 part-time and 29,300 full-time jobs. National unemployment held at 4.4%, in line with consensus, though participation rose 0.3 points to 67.0% and underemployment ticked up to 6.5%. The state breakdown told a less comfortable story. Victoria, the state long considered an economic basket case under ex-Premier "Chairman" Dan Andrews, continued its decline with unemployment jumping to 5.1%, the highest of any state, and the worst reading in Victoria since October 2021. MacroBusiness's Leith van Onselen has flagged Victoria's structural weakness for months: the lowest private business investment per capita of any mainland state, the highest state debt, and a manufacturing sector in long term decline. A national beat masking a genuine two speed labour market. Victoria's weakness looks structural, not seasonal, and it is worth watching whether other states start following the same investment starved path. Next week's CPI is the RBA's real decision maker: here's what the market expects
Next Wednesday's June CPI release is shaping up as the more decisive input than this week's employment data for the RBA's 11th of August meeting and rate decision. The RBA's own May forecast expects headline inflation to peak around 4.8% in the June quarter before easing, with trimmed mean staying above 3% until mid-2027. Bank previews ahead of May's data had trimmed mean clustered at 3.5 to 3.6% annually, and the actual number landed at 3.6%, the highest since September 2024. For the June quarter, banks are pencilling in quarterly trimmed mean around 1.0 to 1.1%, keeping the annual rate uncomfortably sticky. The wildcard is the fuel excise relief, which only partly expired on the 30th June and is due to end on August the 2nd just as the price of crude oil tops US$100 again. If the levy relief lapses, headline CPI could reaccelerate even if trimmed mean, the RBA's real focus, tells a different story. The RBA watches trimmed mean, not headline inflation. A rising underlying rate alongside a resolved excise question would put a further hike back on the table for August, whatever the jobs data says. Reading a fund's one year return? Read this first Our FY2026 Fund Manager Review , covering 18 peer groups and 988 funds with complete year returns, carries a lesson worth applying to any one-year performance table you look at. The year's ten strongest results all shared one thing: concentrated exposure to a single theme that dominated for three quarters, despite reversing sharply in the final one. Several of the year's best performers now sit 30% or more below their own high water marks, meaning last year's league table already describes a story that has moved on. The 2026 Review also looks at consistency across 1, 3, 5 and 7 year horizons, and finds two very different stories of it. One comes from genuine, repeatable skill. The other comes from structural leverage, gearing or concentration that mechanically amplifies whatever the market is doing, in good years and bad. Both are real and can produce a first place ranking. Only one gives an indication about what might happen next. The report also flags that eye catching risk-adjusted ratios in some unlisted credit sectors reflect valuation smoothing rather than an absence of risk. The dog that out-traded the news cycle
Barnaby Joyce paused a live ABC interview this week to shout "Sit down!" to his dog Stella, and the news clip instantly out-traded the day's actual policy news. Markets take months to price in forward guidance. Stella got the message in one shout.
News | Insights Annual Fund Manager Performance Review, FY2026 | FundMonitors.com Quarterly State of Trend report - Q2 2026 | East Coast Capital Management Trip Insights: Europe | 4D Infrastructure June 2026 Performance News Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund Insync Global Quality Equity Fund DAFM Digital Income Fund (Digital Income Class) Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) Active ETF (ASX:QGRU) |
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17 Jul 2026 - Hedge Clippings |17 July 2026
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Hedge Clippings | 17 July 2026
Two housing stories moved in opposite directions this week: buyers are paying less, and renters are paying record amounts. Bond markets are betting the RBA is done hiking even as the RBA's own language says otherwise, and in the US, a soft June CPI figure met a new Fed chair unwilling to claim victory. At the end of this issue: a first look at our FY2026 Fund Manager Review, due for release on Monday. Rents hit record highs, Sydney posts its strongest quarterly jump in four years: Domain's June Quarter Rent Report, released 9 July, showed combined capital city house rents up 2.9% for the quarter and 7.7% year on year to a national median of $700, the fastest annual pace in almost two years. Sydney recorded the sharpest move, rising from $800 to $850, a 6.3% jump that Domain's Nicola Powell called the strongest in four years. Brisbane hit a record $700. Unit rents grew just $5 for the quarter, widening the gap with houses. Regional rents held flat despite 5.3% annual growth, so this is a capital city story. Australian Finance Group's James Redman flagged the underlying risk: Negative gearing changes already apply to established property bought after 12 May 2026, even though the law does not commence until 1 July 2027. With vacancy rates near record lows, any further pullback in investor purchases of established stock, exactly what the reform intends, could squeeze rental supply further. Coupled with the ongoing effects of 3 rate rises, the government's policies aimed at cooling investor demand for established property to help first home buyers can also shrink the rental pool in the short run, since today's rental is often tomorrow's first home. Watch new build approvals and rental yields closely. Yield compression is the release valve here, not a supply fix. Bond yields fall as markets bet the hiking cycle is over: Australian government bond yields fell across the curve this week. The three year Commonwealth bond yield dropped 11 basis points to 4.36%, and the 10 year yield fell the same amount to 4.72%, per Fixed Income News Australia. Ten year inflation linked yields eased 10 basis points to 2.28%, suggesting bond investors see the RBA's tightening cycle as largely done, even though the RBA's own minutes, released the week before, kept the door open to further hikes. Against that backdrop, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter delivered a research paper on 9 July examining how central banks assess supply shocks, timely given recent oil volatility. Her remarks sit alongside the Productivity Commission's Chair Danielle Wood's view that weak business investment and slow technology adoption have capped productivity growth since the GFC, meaning less capital per worker and a lower speed limit for non-inflationary growth, an argument for caution given the inflation fight has been far from won at this point. The market and the RBA are reading the same data differently - again. Falling yields say cuts are coming, the RBA's language says hikes remain possible. Watch the 29 July CPI release as the real tie breaker, with the next RBA decision due 11 August. US inflation cools sharply to 3.5%, but Fed Chair Warsh refuses to declare victory: The US June CPI report released this week showed headline inflation falling 0.4% for the month, the largest drop since April 2020, pulling the annual rate to 3.5% from May's 4.2% and below the 3.8% consensus. The move was driven by energy, down 5.7% for the month on the US-Iran de-escalation, though the energy index remains up 15.7% year on year. Core CPI was flat for the month and eased to 2.6% year on year, also softer than expected. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pushed back on a premature victory lap, saying mission accomplished is not his view. Markets still raised expectations for a second half rate cut, and equities rallied. One month of energy driven disinflation right after a de-escalation of hostilities is not a durable trend, especially with the Iran situation currently is in danger of reversing. A single soft number does not make a cutting cycle, particularly with the supply side inflation that is backed up in the pipeline. FY2026 Fund Manager Review - one theme decided FY2026, then started giving the gains back: Fund Monitors' Annual Fund Manager Review, covering 18 peer groups and over 1,000 funds' returns to 30 June 2026, reveals a year that rewarded one theme almost completely: Every one of the ten strongest FY2026 results carries concentrated gold, resources, or high conviction long short exposure. The June quarter retraced much of that leadership, so the league tables already reflect a turning theme. Geographically, Australian large cap funds returned an average of 2.22% against an average of 11.14% for global large caps, a gap of 9% that made regional allocation the year's most consequential decision. The variance was hardly surprising given the ASX200 Total Return was 2.77% in the 12 months to June, compared with the S&P500's Total Return of 22.33%. The full review covering the 10 top performing funds in each Peer Group, along with commentary and analysis, will be available online at www.fundmonitors.com from midday next Monday. If you would like a copy emailed to you directly, please email your request to contact@fundmonitors.com. News | Insights Why a softer June CPI may not mean the RBA is finished | Seed Funds Management Infrastructure in focus: A hard-wearing HALO in infrastructure | Magellan Investment Partners June 2026 Performance News Insync Global Capital Aware Fund |
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10 Jul 2026 - Hedge Clippings |10 July 2026
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Hedge Clippings | 10 July 2026 Summary: Housing takes centre stage this week, with fresh ABS approvals data and a rapidly falling price picture landing days apart. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Melbourne visit delivered a uranium deal which has been stalled for a decade, while offshore the quick military fixes promised in both Iran and Ukraine keep dragging on. National values post their steepest monthly fall since 2022, and HSBC says an 8% correction is just the beginning Source: Cotality Home Value Index, via Mortgage Professional Australia, 7 July 2026 Cotality's Home Value Index fell 0.4% nationally in June, the steepest monthly decline since December 2022, with capital city values down 1.3% over the quarter. Sydney (-1.2% for the month, -3.2% for the quarter) and Melbourne (-1.0%, -2.6%) are leading the fall. Sydney's top quartile ($1.8M plus) has shed roughly $90,000 or 5% in three months, and auction clearance rates have sat below 50% for five consecutive weeks. Domain separately forecasts Sydney down 7% and Melbourne down 8% to June 2027, while Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane keep growing. No doubt there will be further differences on a more granular geographic and suburb basis. Hedge Clippings' own anecdotal evidence from a real estate agent contact operating in Sydney's Elizabeth Bay suggesting achieved prices are already running about 15% below three months ago, with properties taking noticeably longer to sell. HSBC's Paul Bloxham called the tax reform and the RBA's three 2026 hikes a combination that has "rapidly sapped investor demand," pointing to a peak to trough correction of up to 8%. The issue is that property, as most Australian's largest asset impact consumer confidence and the rest of the economy. CBA now expects GDP growth to slow to 1.5% by year end. Economist Belinda Allen notes the oil shock hit was milder than feared, but a deterioration in the housing market is offsetting that relief. Source: ABS Building Approvals, released 3 July 2026. Total approvals: 17,019 (+5.5% YoY) Total dwellings approved fell 1.1% in May to 17,019, per ABS data released 3 July, but the composition tells the real story. ABS head of construction statistics Daniel Rossi attributed the fall entirely to a 10.4% drop in private dwellings excluding houses, which had jumped 4.0% in April. May's Budget's tax changes will not have not fed through to this data yet, since the CGT and negative gearing reforms only bite from mid-2027 and the SMSF LRBA ban from August. This is still largely a rate and confidence story, not a tax reform one. The stakes are asymmetric across tenure types. Nationally 66% of households own their home (35% with a mortgage, 31% outright) and 31% rent, per ABS and AIHW data. In Greater Sydney ownership drops to 59% (32% mortgaged, 27% outright) and renting rises to 35%. For the roughly one third of households still paying off a loan, this cycle delivers a rare double hit: elevated repayments and declining home equity at the same time, a combination that weighs directly on consumer confidence since housing remains most Australians' largest asset. Falling prices help Albo's aspirational first home buyers get a foot on the ladder, but they do not help the roughly 4 million households already on it who are watching equity erode while repayments stay elevated. That asymmetry is the real political and economic tension of this cycle, and no single data release resolves it. A decade long stalemate ends: Australia will sell uranium to India Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's third visit to Australia, his first stop after Indonesia on a three-nation tour, produced a nuclear cooperation agreement allowing Australian uranium exports to India for "exclusively peaceful purposes," ending a stalemate that persisted despite a 2014 cooperation pact. Albanese framed it as diversifying Australian trade beyond China, still the nation's top partner. Modi linked it to India's target of 100 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2047. The two leaders also agreed to deepen defence, critical minerals and space cooperation, including a tracking terminal on the Cocos Keeling Islands, and Modi pushed for an early conclusion to the proposed Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement. This is a genuine long term positive for the Australian uranium and critical minerals sector, even though the commercial ramp up will take years, not months. However, let's not go into the logic of Australia, with 28% of the world's known uranium resources being happy to export it, but not prepared to use it domestically as a reliable long term power source, unless of course it is on a submarine. Two quick fixes that still are not fixed Trump's promised swift resolution in Iran, lunched on 28th of February, has stretched to four and a half months with no final treaty signed despite June's interim memorandum - but in fact with an renewed increase in hostilities. The parallel in Putin's Ukraine short term military exercise launched in 2022 with expectations of a rapid outcome, has instead run more than four years, with Russian forces now facing genuine attrition pressure. For markets, both situations underscore the same lesson: geopolitical resolutions tend to be announced faster than they are actually delivered, and oil and risk asset pricing should build in that lag rather than front run the headline. Next week: Australia's economic calendar delivers the data that will shape the August RBA call The RBA's next meeting is not until August 10-11 and is shaping as being critical for Australia's mortgage holders, as well as the RBA's own reputation. Prior to that the board will have the benefit of June's CPI number (due 29th July). With household equity under pressure from falling prices and mortgage holders squeezed on both sides, the case for diversified exposure beyond direct residential property remains strong. FundMonitors.com tracks 1,075 managed in Australia, helping advisers and HNW investors identify genuine alternatives as capital looks beyond the family home. News | Insights 4 ASX stocks we like despite the macro uncertainty | Glenmore Asset Management Netflix: Navigating deals, AI and growth | Magellan Investment Partners June 2026 Performance News Bennelong Australian Equities Fund |
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3 Jul 2026 - Hedge Clippings | 03 July 2026
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Hedge Clippings | 03 July 2026
Let's look at the RBA Minutes first: The RBA's minutes from its 15-16 June meeting, released this week, confirmed the board held at 4.35% but kept the door open to further tightening, citing "excess demand and widespread inflationary pressures". Persistently weak productivity was flagged as a standing concern; unit labour costs remain above their inflation-targeting-period average despite wages growth in line with expectations, since output per hour isn't keeping pace. The board also linked flat equity prices partly to limited local AI-boom participation. CBA, ANZ and NAB all read the tone as hawkish but were split on the implications: CBA sees a hold through 2026, but with upside risk; ANZ is flagging an August rise if Q2 CPI surprises on the high side; and NAB reads it as confirmation the cash rate has peaked. Which one is on the money will depend on the June CPI due on 29th July, and PPI due 2 days later. But with the RBA not due to meet until 10-11 August, two weeks before the July CPI due on August 26th, there's going to be some crystal ball gazing around the board table. Complicating things will be the slide in the oil price thanks to the US-Iran de-escalation (assuming it holds), but offset by the reintroduction of the other half of the fuel excise levy, and lingering supply-side inflation still filtering through the system. Back to the ASX FY25-26 Close While the Australian equity market as a whole was lacklustre at best, particularly when judged against the S&P500 or Dow Jones, there was an extreme divergence between the sectors and companies that drove average returns, and those that dragged them down. A 48% materials rally carrying an entire index to a mid-single-digit total return (inclusive of dividends) says as much about concentration risk as it does about the benefit of diversification. Strip out rare earths and iron ore, and FY25-26 looks considerably flatter, and argues loudest for active management and offshore diversification vs. passive index investing. Source: IG Australia, ASX 200 FY close report The ASX 200 closed the financial year up 6.3% including dividends. Materials led at +48.2% on a rare earths and lithium re-rating, but even within the sector there were standouts: Mineral Resources (+186.9%), Lynas Rare Earths (+115.2%), Iluka Resources (+93.1%), plus Rio Tinto (+63.0%) and BHP (+62.4%) all leading the charge. While accepting averages can be misleading, stock selection, manager and fund selection, are vital to beating the index. While individual stock prices are known, fund performance for June 2026 is still pending. However in the 12 months to the end of May, just over 50% of equity funds on AFM's database outperformed the ASX200. Choice of the right sector, and fund, or funds, is obviously key. The top 10 over the past 12 months to May have returned between 75% and 126%, a list not unsurprisingly dominated by Resource Strategies such as Terra Capital, Argonaut and Paragon. By comparison, investing in a passive ASX200 Index strategy would force the investor to accept the good, the bad, and everything in between for a return of just under 7%. Finally, US Non-Farm Payrolls June's US jobs report delivered the softest headline in four months: payrolls up just 57,000 versus 115,000 expected, with April and May revised down a combined 74,000. Leisure and hospitality shed 61,000 roles on weak seasonal hiring. Notably, the month Goldman Sachs had modelled a 40,000 World Cup hiring boost that didn't materialise. Unemployment fell to a 12-month low of 4.2%, driven by a 720,000 plunge in the labour force rather than stronger hiring, pulling participation to 61.5%, its lowest since March 2021. Fed Chair Warsh's 17 June comment that labour data was "moving in a good direction" now reads as cover for an extended hold, with June CPI (14 July) the next catalyst. A falling unemployment rate built on a shrinking labour force is a weaker signal than the headline suggests. It buys Warsh time but doesn't resolve the tension between inflation and a cooling jobs market, worth watching alongside the RBA's own next move. Donald will want to focus on the US birthday celebrations this weekend, rather than the job numbers. News | Insights 10k Words | Equitable Investors Netflix: Navigating deals, AI and growth | Magellan Investment Partners May 2026 Performance News Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund |
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26 Jun 2026 - Hedge Clippings |26 June 2026
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Hedge Clippings | 26 June 2026 Central banks are trying to sound calm. Markets are trying to sound confident. Neither looks entirely convincing. RBA | Waiting is not relief The Reserve Bank left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, but nobody should have confused that with comfort. After a year of policy reversals, first down, and then back up, the Board is now in the only other position available: waiting. That is not the same as relief. More a case of being stuck between a rock and a hard place. The latest inflation data gave both sides of the argument (and politics) something to cling to. Annualised headline CPI fell to 4.0% in May, helped by fuel-price effects, which was quickly treated in some corners as evidence that pressure is easing. The more important number, however, was the trimmed mean, which rose to 3.6% and reached its highest level since September 2024. That is the measure the RBA watches most closely, and as the chart above shows, it is not moving in the right direction. The difficulty the RBA has at this point in the cycle - apart from inflation remaining above their 2-3% trimmed mean target - is that they can see more volatility to pricing ahead. In July the fuel excise respite is due to halve, and at some stage will be removed altogether. While hostilities in the Middle East have abated (for now) it is going to take some time for the aftermath of the war, and its effects on supply driven inflation, to work through the system. The only certainty seems to be uncertainty. The labour market adds to the ambiguity. May employment rose by 40,300, which looks solid at first glance. But 35,200 of those jobs were part-time, while total hours worked fell. Unemployment eased to 4.4% from April's 4.5%, but this is not a labour market roaring back to life. It is a labour market holding headcount while reducing hours. That matters. It gives the RBA no clean reason to cut, and no urgent reason to hike. Instead, it keeps the Board exactly where it has been: staring at the next inflation print and hoping the economy does not force its hand. However, according to Renny Ellis from Arculus Funds Management, the market is only pricing in around 8 bps of tightening over the next 12 months, which he believes is under-pricing the medium-term risk of a "higher for longer" environment, which in his view is leading to a further rate rise in Q4 this year. Ellis also sees the risk of "a credible path to a second 25bp increase in 2027" as being possible. You can read his Market Commentary via this link. Property | The policy squeeze arrives before the policy changes The housing market is already showing strain. The combined capitals' preliminary auction clearance rate fell to 47.4%, the lowest weekly reading since April 2020. That is not a market looking through rate hikes. It is a market absorbing them. Sydney and Melbourne remain the key pressure points. Affordability is stretched, borrowing capacity has been hit, and consumer confidence has not been helped by the Budget's changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax. National home values were flat in May, while Sydney values are already below their November 2025 peak. The important point is that the tax changes have not yet landed. The CGT discount reform and negative gearing restrictions are not due to apply until July 2027, while the SMSF residential LRBA ban is expected around August 2026. The current weakness is therefore a combination of rate-driven, combined with investors reacting to uncertainty and fear of the tax reforms that will bite later. If consumer confidence deteriorates further, the property market could shift from a source of household wealth comfort to a source of household anxiety very quickly. Chalmers can argue about the technicalities of the property market being in a correction or not, but the reality for homeowners with a high LVR, or selling their house into a softening market are feeling the reality pinch. The bottom line This was a week of misleading headlines and uncomfortable details. Headline inflation fell, but underlying inflation rose. Jobs grew, but mostly part-time. GDP expanded, but only because data-centre investment did the heavy lifting. Property softened before the major tax reforms have even begun to bite. For investors, the lesson is familiar. Volatility does not just reveal market direction. It reveals process. It shows which managers are relying on beta, which are managing risk, and which have a framework strong enough to survive when the story changes. That is where FundMonitors matters. Weeks like this are exactly why manager research, peer comparison and performance analysis are worth doing properly. News | Insights Is the Consensus on Equities the Riskiest Trade in the Room? | East Coast Capital Management Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management May 2026 Performance News Seed Funds Management Financial Income Fund DAFM Digital Income Fund (Digital Income Class) |
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19 Jun 2026 - Hedge Clippings |19 June 2026
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Hedge Clippings | 19 June 2026
News | Insights Expert Analysis of the RBA's June 16 Rate Decision Pressure at the pump | Magellan Investment Partners Federal Budget 2026-27: Winners, Losers and Opportunities for the Mining Sector | Australian Secure Capital Fund May 2026 Performance News Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund |
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