NEWS

16 Apr 2025 - Investment Perspectives: Not another US recession

15 Apr 2025 - Trump's Tariffs: A game changer or investment opportunity?
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Trump's Tariffs: A game changer or investment opportunity? Magellan Asset Management April 2025 |
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Head of Global Equities and Portfolio Manager Arvid Streimann, along with Investment Director Elisa Di Marco, discuss Trump's latest tariff announcements and their implications for investment markets. Arvid provides his perspective on the escalating trade tensions, their impact on portfolios, and highlights opportunities for long-term investors amid the market volatility. |
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Funds operated by this manager: Magellan Global Fund (Hedged), Magellan Core Infrastructure Fund, Magellan Global Fund (Open Class Units) ASX:MGOC, Magellan High Conviction Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Important Information: Important Information: This material has been delivered to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946 AFS Licence No. 304 301 ('Magellan') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and Target Market Determination ('TMD') and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making a decision about whether to acquire, or continue to hold, the relevant financial product. A copy of the relevant PDS and TMD relating to a Magellan financial product may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4888 or by visiting www.magellangroup.com.au. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any financial product or service, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to implement its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of a Magellan financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. Magellan makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of Magellan. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. No representation or warranty is made with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this material. Magellan will not be responsible or liable for any losses arising from your use or reliance upon any part of the information contained in this material. Any third party trademarks contained herein are the property of their respective owners and Magellan claims no ownership in, nor any affiliation with, such trademarks. Any third party trademarks that appear in this material are used for information purposes and only to identify the company names or brands of their respective owners. No affiliation, sponsorship or endorsement should be inferred from the use of these trademarks. This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Magellan. |

14 Apr 2025 - Manager Insights | Digital Asset Funds Management
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Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Richard Grace, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Digital Asset Funds Management. They discussed the evolving landscape of digital assets, exploring trends, opportunities, and the challenges faced by investors in this rapidly changing sector.
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11 Apr 2025 - Data is (still) the "new oil"
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Data is (still) the "new oil" Janus Henderson Investors March 2025 Exploring the transformative power of data in the digital age, we uncover the strategic advantages that position data asset companies for unprecedented growth in the AI-driven economy, while simultaneously displaying compelling sustainability alignment. IntroductionJust as oil once propelled the engines of the global economy, powering everything from vehicles to industries, data today fuels the intricate mechanisms of the digital world, driving advancements and dictating the pace of technological progress. This shift marks a profound transformation in how we perceive value and utility in the modern economy. Both oil and data are essential resources in their respective economies. Information can be extracted from data, similar to energy from oil. Data powers new technologies like driverless cars, just as oil powered traditional transportation. However, unlike oil, data is not finite, and it has lower transfer and storage costs. Data's lifecycle is also defined by relationships, while oil's is defined by processes. In this article, we delve into a journey of understanding these parallels, which sheds light on the investment opportunities of sustainable data asset companies and their influence on our future. The value of data asset companies in an AI-driven worldThe world's most valuable companies, including tech giants like Microsoft which we own in our portfolio, have set a precedent in utilising data to cement their dominance across various sectors. These data asset companies possess a unique blend of characteristics that not only allow them to thrive in today's economy but also position them to be even more valuable in an AI-driven future. One of the key attributes of these companies is their possession of extensive, proprietary data sets. Whilst some data is commoditised in nature1, in the context of an increasingly AI-centric world, the demand for high-quality, proprietary data has surged. AI and machine learning technologies require vast amounts of reliable data to train algorithms and improve their accuracy and efficiency. Public data, often plagued with issues of reliability and legal risks, such as copyright infringement, falls short of meeting these demands. As a result, companies with large and rich data troves find themselves at a strategic advantage, with the ability to fuel AI innovations. This can lead to breakthroughs in critical fields like medical diagnostics, where it can enhance accuracy, reduce errors, and democratise access to advanced medical support. Furthermore, ownership of proprietary business-to-business (B2B) data grants these companies significant pricing power, enabling them to unlock new revenue streams by monetising latent data through cross-selling, new product development, and subscription software services. The "build it once, sell it many times" database business model not only drives operating leverage but also ensures consistent and rising earnings per share and free cash flow generation for these companies. Figure 1: Information Services sector stock performance
Source: J.P. Morgan and Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 7 March 2025. CAGR = Compound annualised growth rate, which is essentially the cumulative 20-year performance represented as a return per year. Note: The firms included in the index are DNB, EFX, EXPN, FICO, MCO, MSCI, REL, SPGI, TRI, TRU, VRSK, and WKL. Recent high-profile deals and legal challenges highlight the growing recognition of the value of proprietary data for training AI models. Google's US$60 million per year agreement with Reddit2 and OpenAI's partnership with Axel Springer3 showcase the burgeoning demand for unique data sets to feed the insatiable appetite of AI algorithms. Conversely, legal disputes, such as The New York Times' lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft, underscore the complexities and challenges of navigating the data landscape in an AI-driven era. These developments underline the critical role of exclusive data assets in powering the next generation of AI technologies and reinforce why companies rich in these assets are poised to become even more valuable as we advance further into the AI frontier. Defining the data asset ecosystemData stands as the backbone of innovation. From tech giants harnessing big data to optimise their services, to those leveraging analytics for market insights, the ecosystem of data-related companies is as diverse as it is dynamic. Figure 2 shows one way in which we have endeavoured to segment a cross-section of these businesses into five broad verticals with a few representative examples, some of which we are exposed to in our strategy. Cybersecurity has been added as a sixth vertical, since this area is concomitant with the proliferation of data. Some of the common attributes among these verticals include exposure to recurring revenue models, critical workflow-embedded service propositions, scalability, high incremental margins, customer captivity, generally low capital expenditure requirements, and high cash flow predictability. These are all features that we value in quality businesses, which gives us some confidence that businesses of this kind could positively answer one of the two vital questions comprising our investment process: will this company compound wealth? Figure 2: Segmentation of data-related companies
Source: Janus Henderson Investors Note: these are representative examples of companies, some of which may not fulfil the Janus Henderson Global Sustainable Equity strategy's sustainability requirements, so they should not be interpreted as an investable universe of stocks for our strategy, but rather as illustrative of the types of business models that fit into the verticals defined. The verticals defined are not exhaustive. We do deep due diligence on the sustainability profiles of companies before they enter our investable universe and abide by our exacting standards. As a team, we believe there is an inextricable link between sustainability, innovation, and long-term compounding growth. Therefore, we want to invest in compounding businesses that also answer the second question in our investment process: is the world a better place because of this company? Our research suggests that characteristics of the broad verticals that we have outlined align well with the ideals that we typically seek out in sustainable businesses, including mitigating financial risks, fostering financial inclusion, promoting market transparency, as well as democratising access to information, among others. Figure 3 highlights some of the factors that showcase the environmental and social impacts of these areas, making this entire complex an exciting place to explore from an investment research perspective. Figure 3: Sustainability alignment: Why do they make the world a better place?
Source: Janus Henderson Investors How are we playing the data-asset companies?Apart from Microsoft, our strategy is exposed to companies within the Credit Rating Agencies and Other Information Services verticals, notably, S&P Global and Wolters Kluwer. S&P Global exemplifies how data can serve as both a competitive advantage and a moat while fostering positive global outcomes. The company's extensive databases, built over decades, provide credit ratings, market intelligence, and unparalleled insights that are trusted globally. Its ability to deliver accurate, reliable, and actionable data creates high barriers to entry for competitors, solidifying its position as a leader in the financial information industry. The acquisition of IHS Markit on 28 February 2022 further enhanced S&P Global's data capabilities, enabling deeper analysis across sectors like commodities, climate change, and supply chain management. This synergy allows the company to scale its offerings and cross-sell services effectively, reinforcing its defensible business model. Moreover, S&P Global leverages advanced technologies such as AI and machine learning to innovate its analytics platforms, ensuring clients can make informed decisions efficiently. Beyond its business success, S&P Global positively impacts the world through initiatives aligned with sustainability and economic development. It supports the energy transition by providing data that helps businesses and governments address climate challenges. Additionally, its philanthropic efforts include funding job training programs for underrepresented communities and aiding vulnerable populations in adapting to climate realities. By facilitating efficient capital flows toward impactful investments, S&P Global drives innovation, job creation, and inclusive growth globally. In essence, S&P Global's mastery of data not only fortifies its competitive edge but also empowers stakeholders to tackle critical global issues, embodying the dual role of a profitable enterprise and a force for good. Wolters Kluwer is another prime example of a company leveraging data as an edge while being closely aligned with sustainability. With roots dating back to 1836, the company has evolved from traditional publishing to providing mission-critical digital solutions for professionals in healthcare, law, finance, and accounting. Its ability to manage vast amounts of data with precision and accuracy, enhanced by AI technologies, creates high barriers to entry for competitors and ensures customer trust. The company's Corporate Performance and ESG division exemplifies its data-driven strategy. By integrating financial and non-financial reporting tools, Wolters Kluwer helps businesses navigate complex ESG regulations, ensuring compliance and fostering sustainable practices. Solutions like Enablon and CCH® Tagetik empower organisations to streamline processes, enhance decision-making, and quantify ESG impacts on business performance. Wolters Kluwer also prioritises sustainability and social responsibility. It has set science-based targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and optimises its global office footprint with eco-friendly standards. Initiatives like solar lamp assembly for underprivileged communities highlight its commitment to societal impact. Additionally, its Risk Reporter app promotes workplace safety, showcasing innovative ways to address global challenges. By combining advanced data capabilities with a focus on sustainability and governance, Wolters Kluwer not only maintains a strong competitive advantage, but also contributes to health, justice, prosperity, and environmental protection worldwide. ConclusionThe rise of data asset companies, underscored by their strategic utilisation of proprietary data sets and their pivotal role in the advancement of AI technologies, marks a significant shift in the source of economic and technological power. These companies not only lead the charge in the current digital revolution but also lay the groundwork for a future where AI's potential can be fully realised, impacting everything from medical diagnostics to personal and business decision-making processes. The journey through the similarities and contrasts between oil and data, and the deep dive into the value and impact of data asset companies, highlights the critical importance of navigating the data landscape with foresight and strategic acumen. As we stand on the brink of an AI-driven era, the decisions made today by businesses, investors, and policymakers regarding data acquisition, usage, and governance will shape the technological advancements and societal norms of tomorrow. As W. Edwards Deming remarked - "In God we trust, all others must bring data". |
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Funds operated by this manager: Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest Fund, Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest Fund - Institutional, Janus Henderson Cash Fund - Institutional, Janus Henderson Conservative Fixed Interest Fund, Janus Henderson Conservative Fixed Interest Fund - Institutional, Janus Henderson Diversified Credit Fund, Janus Henderson Global Equity Income Fund, Janus Henderson Global Multi-Strategy Fund, Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund, Janus Henderson Tactical Income Fund All opinions and estimates in this information are subject to change without notice and are the views of the author at the time of publication. Janus Henderson is not under any obligation to update this information to the extent that it is or becomes out of date or incorrect. The information herein shall not in any way constitute advice or an invitation to invest. It is solely for information purposes and subject to change without notice. This information does not purport to be a comprehensive statement or description of any markets or securities referred to within. Any references to individual securities do not constitute a securities recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Whilst Janus Henderson believe that the information is correct at the date of publication, no warranty or representation is given to this effect and no responsibility can be accepted by Janus Henderson to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. |

10 Apr 2025 - The Evolving Landscape of Fixed Income Investing
9 Apr 2025 - Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face
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Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face Canopy Investors March 2025 "Know what you own and know why you own it." Long-term investment success requires differentiated thinking supported by genuine conviction. At Canopy, we believe conviction cannot be borrowed or assumed; it must be built through detailed research and a deep understanding of the businesses we invest in. When markets turn volatile and uncertainty reigns, the strength of our conviction can be the difference between seizing opportunity and capitulating at precisely the wrong moment. The challenge of maintaining conviction Maintaining conviction through market volatility is one of the toughest challenges investors inevitably face. As shown in the charts below, even the largest and highest quality companies can experience significant price declines that test investor resolve. Amazon's share price fell 93% between December 1999 and September 2001, took eight years to regain its prior high, and then dropped more than 50% again during the Global Financial Crisis. Similarly, Apple, Netflix and NVIDIA have each weathered multiple declines exceeding 70% on their paths to becoming some of the world's most valuable companies.
This pattern isn't limited to a few notable exceptions. In a study of the top 100 most successful companies of each decade since 1950, Bessembinder (2020) found that even these exceptional investments experienced average drawdowns of 32.5%, lasting 10 months. Volatility has real consequences for realized investment returns. A long-running analysis by market research firm DALBAR (2022) found that, over the last three decades, the average US equity fund investor has underperformed the S&P 500 by 3-4% annually - primarily because of buying high and selling low during volatile periods. When share prices decline and negative sentiment builds, many investors abandon sound investments precisely when they should maintain or increase their positions. As Cullen Roche put it, "The stock market is the only store where, when everything is on sale, people run away." At the root of this behaviour is what we call 'borrowed conviction' - investment theses adopted from respected investors, the financial media or popular sentiment rather than developed through independent research. When negative headlines accumulate and prices fall, borrowed conviction can crumble in the face of mounting pressure to sell. Only by developing one's own conviction - built on a deep understanding of a business, its competitive advantages, its long-term prospects and cash flow generation - can investors maintain confidence in the face of market pessimism or temporary setbacks. Being different and right "To achieve superior investment results, you have to hold views that are different from the consensus and be right." - Howard Marks. Being different alone is not sufficient; contrarianism without insight typically leads to poor results. Detailed research reveals opportunities where the market's understanding is incomplete or incorrect. These opportunities often arise in several ways:
Strong conviction must be balanced with intellectual flexibility. As Charlie Munger observed, "Part of what you must learn is how to handle mistakes and new facts that change the odds." This balance helps distinguish between appropriate persistence and mere stubbornness - knowing when to hold firm in your thesis and when to adapt to new evidence. Our approach At Canopy, we have developed a structured research process designed to build knowledge, test assumptions and size positions based on conviction levels:
Investing with conviction We believe conviction built on detailed research is essential for long-term investment success. Our structured research process develops this conviction through comprehensive business analysis, clear investment theses, collaborative team input and systematic position sizing. This disciplined approach enables us to identify opportunities amid volatility and maintain positions when others capitulate. |
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Funds operated by this manager: Canopy Global Small & Mid Cap Fund |

8 Apr 2025 - Australian Secure Capital Fund - Market Update
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Australian Secure Capital Fund - Market Update Australian Secure Capital Fund March 2025 February marked a shift in Australia's housing market, with national home values rising 0.3%, ending a three-month downturn. Gains were widespread, with Melbourne and Hobart leading at +0.4%, while regional markets continued to outperform, rising 0.4% for the month and 1.0% over the quarter. This renewed momentum aligns with improving buyer sentiment, supported by tighter housing supply and a slowdown in new listings, which remain 4.7% lower year-on-year. Auction clearance rates have also strengthened, reflecting growing confidence in the market. While affordability remains a challenge, supply constraints and positive sentiment could support continued price growth in the coming months. Investors monitoring market trends should note the shifting dynamics, particularly in premium housing markets, which have historically been the first to respond to changing economic conditions. Property Values
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7 Apr 2025 - Manager Insights | Euree Asset Management
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Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Winston Sammut, Property Director at Euree Asset Management. They discuss the global market reaction to Donald Trump's tariff announcements, as investors shift to safer assets amid rising uncertainty, falling interest rates, and fears of a trade war, with flow-on effects for REIT valuations and broader market sentiment.
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4 Apr 2025 - Spurious Correlations
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Spurious Correlations Yarra Capital Management March 2025 Debt size doesn't seem to matter!Major government borrowing events have typically been triggered by one-off crisis like the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19, not by interest rates. Before 2008, debt-to-GDP ratios were stable or even declining in many economies, suggesting governments borrow based on necessity, not borrowing costs. Looking at the US, Australia, Germany, and the UK (refer Chart 1), debt levels have risen, yet interest rates haven't followed suit. Germany, for instance, has kept debt-to-GDP in check, yet its bond yields have moved in line with other developed economies. Chart 1 - Debt-to-GDP vs. 10-year yields
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Funds operated by this manager: Yarra Australian Equities Fund, Yarra Emerging Leaders Fund, Yarra Enhanced Income Fund, Yarra Income Plus Fund |

3 Apr 2025 - Trumponomics: What tariffs could mean for small caps
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Trumponomics: What tariffs could mean for small caps abrdn March 2025 The recent wave of tariffs imposed by President Trump, along with retaliatory measures from affected nations, has created a complex environment for businesses worldwide. While these trade disputes pose risks, they also present unique opportunities for certain US small-cap companies. At the core of Trump's tariff policies is the goal of protecting American industries and reducing trade deficits. Measures that will undoubtedly disrupt global supply chains, drive up the cost of imported goods, and create challenges for businesses reliant on foreign materials. They are expected to, however, incentivize domestic production, potentially benefitting small-cap companies that can step in to replace diminished imports. While not all firms will benefit, we believe companies with resilient business models, pricing power, and strong balance sheets will be best positioned to navigate these economic shifts. Reshoring and supply chain reconsiderationsOne of the primary ways tariffs could benefit small-cap companies is through the reshoring of manufacturing capacity. As tariffs make foreign goods more expensive, many US firms are adapting supply chain strategies to increase domestic sourcing and production. This shift presents new opportunities for smaller companies across a variety of sectors. For instance, reshoring projects will drive demand for local construction crews, concrete suppliers, and equipment rental firms. Regional banks will play a key role in financing these initiatives. Meanwhile, new semiconductor facilities will require specialised HVAC systems with nearby maintenance and repair services. By positioning themselves within these expanding domestic supply chains, small-cap companies stand to benefit from stronger revenue and earnings growth. Tariff-driven innovation and efficiencyAdditionally, tariffs have spurred innovation and efficiency improvements among small-cap companies. Many businesses are investing in automation, advanced manufacturing techniques, and other innovations to offset rising material costs to enhance productivity. These efforts help maintain margins and better position small-cap companies for long-term success. This is especially relevant for technology and industrial companies leveraging innovation to reduce dependence on foreign inputs and strengthen their competitive position. Reshaping the competitive landscapeCounter-tariffs imposed by other nations in response to Trump's policies have also played a role in shaping the competitive landscape. Countries like China have targeted US exports, impacting industries such as agriculture and automotive. While some small-cap exporters face headwinds, others have successfully pivoted to alternative markets. We believe companies that can adapt to shifting trade dynamics and diversify their customer base will be best positioned to thrive. The economic environment remains supportiveWhile we are mindful of the risks associated with recent policy actions, the broader economic environment remains supportive of high-quality small-cap stocks. Despite geopolitical uncertainty, GDP growth is expected to remain in positive territory. Also, many companies have already strengthened operations in response to past disruptions, such as the pandemic and volatility during Trump's first term. These efforts, such as diversifying supply chains and implementing efficiency initiatives, have better-positioned businesses to navigate potential tariffs and raw material inflation. Overall, the US economy is expected to continue expanding, albeit at a more modest pace. This environment allows resilient small-cap companies to capitalise on the new administration's 'America First' agenda while leveraging recent operational enhancements to mitigate near-term risks. ... Along with earnings growthAs we move through 2025, small-cap stocks are gaining attention for several reasons. Investors are increasingly looking to diversify, given the growing concentration of "Big Tech" in large-cap indices. The shift is timely, as small-cap companies are expected to deliver stronger earnings growth relative to their large-cap counterparts (Chart 1). This is an important development as small-cap growth rates have lagged large-caps for several years. Chart 1. Russell 2000 Index (RTY) vs. S&P 500 Index (SPX) positive EPS growth ... And attractive valuationsFurthermore, small-cap stocks are trading at attractive valuations, with their discount to large-caps near historic lows (Chart 2). Chart 2. Small cap relative to large cap forward price/earnings (PE) ratio While multiple factors have contributed to this valuation gap, earnings growth differentials have been key drivers. As small-cap earnings accelerate, this discount should begin to narrow, presenting a compelling opportunity for investors. Final thoughts...Trump's latest tariffs and the retaliatory measures from affected nations are reshaping the competitive landscape for US small-cap companies. While risks remain, the push towards domestic production, supply chain diversification, and innovation can drive earnings growth for many firms over the long term. Coupled with resilient economic conditions and historically attractive valuations, high-quality small-cap stocks present a strong investment opportunity for those looking to capitalise on evolving trade dynamics. |
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Funds operated by this manager: abrdn Sustainable Asian Opportunities Fund, abrdn Emerging Opportunities Fund, abrdn Global Corporate Bond Fund (Class A), abrdn International Equity Fund, abrdn Multi-Asset Income Fund, abrdn Multi-Asset Real Return Fund, abrdn Sustainable International Equities Fund |




Source: FactSet, Canopy Investors.


