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Hedge Clippings | 26 September 2025 - Helicopter view of the Economy

Across the Pacific, the US economy surprised to the upside in the second quarter. Revised figures show GDP running at an annualised 3.8%, well ahead of the initial 3.3% estimate and the fastest clip in almost two years. The driver was the consumer, with spending up 2.5%, supported by an upswing in investment in intellectual property - particularly software and AI.

Not all sectors pulled their weight, but financial services, information technology, and manufacturing made solid contributions. Economists, however, were quick to point out the obvious caveat: while the data looks strong, its durability is less clear. A still-uncertain trade policy environment, persistent tariff disputes, and the shadow of slowing global demand could yet put a lid on momentum, while the previous week's soft employment numbers, and the upward inflation pressures remain.

Back home, the inflation story also continues to play out. The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator rose 3.0% in the 12 months to August 2025, according to the ABS - up from 2.8% in July, and the highest annual rate since July 2024. Housing (+4.5%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.0%), and alcohol and tobacco (+6.0%) were the largest contributors.

The annual trimmed mean inflation rate edged down slightly to 2.6% in August from 2.7% in July, but the CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel accelerated to 3.4%, compared with 3.2% previously. Housing inflation, in particular, reflected higher electricity costs, with the annual rise skewed by the expiry of one-off rebates. In August last year, households in Queensland, WA and Tasmania were cushioned by State Government rebates of $1000, $400, and $250 respectively. With those programs now finished, out-of-pocket costs have risen, leaving electricity prices up 5.9% year-on-year once rebates are stripped out.

On a monthly basis, however, electricity costs fell 6.3% in August, mainly due to NSW and ACT households receiving the first payments of the extended Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates. The shifting landscape of rebates makes the data noisy, and while the ABS' monthly indicator grabs headlines, the RBA remains more focused on the quarterly numbers - with the September quarter CPI not due until the end of October.

Which begs the question: what will the RBA Board do when it meets next week? Having just cut rates by 0.25% at their last meeting, was the Board a little too quick to bow to pressure from the media and the market? Our experts - Nick Chaplin (Seed Funds Management) and Renny Ellis (Arculus) - might be tempted to say, "I told you so." For now, it seems inevitable that the Board will sit on its hands until at least their November meeting. With some banks and economists starting to backtrack on their expectations of multiple cuts before Christmas, the latest inflation uptick adds an uncomfortable wrinkle.

Maybe only one at the most?

News | Insights

New Funds on FundMonitors.com

Manager Insights | East Coast Capital Management

Market Update | Australian Secure Capital Fund

Investment Perspectives: Riding the silver tsunami | Quay Global Investors

August 2025 Performance News

Insync Global Quality Equity Fund

DAFM Digital Income Fund (Digital Income Class)

Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund

Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund

Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund

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Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Simone Haslinger, Chief Executive Officer at  East Coast Capital Management. 

Simon explains ECCM's fully systematic, data-driven trend-following approach across 80+ highly liquid global futures, designed to sidestep human bias and add low-correlated diversification to Australia-heavy portfolios. She highlights real-world examples from gold to feeder cattle, shares a strong multi-year track record, and contrasts liquid alternatives with illiquid private markets-making the case for a meaningful allocation to trend following.

Funds operated by this manager: ECCM Systematic Trend Fund

Sustainable equities outlook: AI's transformative role in an evolving global economy

Janus Henderson Investors

September 2025

Funds operated by this manager:

Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest Fund , Janus Henderson Conservative Fixed Interest Fund , Janus Henderson Diversified Credit Fund , Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund , Janus Henderson Tactical Income Fund , Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest Fund - Institutional , Janus Henderson Conservative Fixed Interest Fund - Institutional , Janus Henderson Cash Fund - Institutional , Janus Henderson Global Multi-Strategy Fund , Janus Henderson Global Sustainable Equity Fund , Janus Henderson Sustainable Credit Fund

Source: Janus Henderson Investors commissioned the market research company Pureprofile to interview 100 professional investors working for pension funds, family offices, wealth managers, insurance asset managers in the UK, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, France, Sweden, Norway and Finland with a total of US$781.5 billion assets under management. The research was conducted in June 2025.

Active investing: An investment management approach where a fund manager actively aims to outperform or beat a specific index or benchmark through research, analysis, and the investment choices they make. The opposite of passive investing.

Exchange traded fund (ETF): A security that tracks an index, sector, commodity, or pool of assets (such as an index fund). ETFs trade like an equity on a stock exchange and experience price changes as the underlying assets move up and down in price. ETFs typically have higher daily liquidity and lower fees than actively-managed funds

All opinions and estimates in this information are subject to change without notice and are the views of the author at the time of publication. Janus Henderson is not under any obligation to update this information to the extent that it is or becomes out of date or incorrect. The information herein shall not in any way constitute advice or an invitation to invest. It is solely for information purposes and subject to change without notice. This information does not purport to be a comprehensive statement or description of any markets or securities referred to within. Any references to individual securities do not constitute a securities recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested.

Whilst Janus Henderson believe that the information is correct at the date of publication, no warranty or representation is given to this effect and no responsibility can be accepted by Janus Henderson to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information.