10k Words

27 Feb 2023 - Equitable Investors

The "US equity market performance this year can broadly be characterised as a dash for trash," Bespoke declared on Feb 3. Our own analysis of ASX micro-to-mids shows a similar trend - CY2022 losers are now the winners, as are stocks on...

27 Feb 2023 - 10k Words

By: Equitable Investors

10k Words

Equitable Investors

February 2023

The "US equity market performance this year can broadly be characterised as a dash for trash," Bespoke declared on Feb 3. Our own analysis of ASX micro-to-mids shows a similar trend - CY2022 losers are now the winners, as are stocks on higher multiples. A case for higher cash rates was charted by Charles Schwab even as Moody's showed inflation is slowing in some countries. FactSet calculated that the decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate recorded during the first month of the first quarter was larger than the 5, 10 and 20 year averages. This follows S&P 500 Q4 GAAP earnings falling 13% year-over-year, as Creative Planning charted. Behind the earnings, JP Morgan found the strongest consensus for a US recession on record. Folkelore Ventures published data on the tough year that was 2022 for Australian VC. In the tech sector we have Apple & Microsoft trading above their 10-year average EV/EBITDA multiples while Google/Alphabet and Meta/Facebook are now below average. JP Morgan reckons households have been deploying into equity and bond funds in early 2023 after underinvesting in 2022. Crypto assets lost $US1.5 trillion in capitalisation says ARK. Finally, we take a look at corruption hot spots via Statista.

Russell 1000 Decile Analysis: CY2023-to-date % change

Source: Bespoke

ASX Micro-to-Mids - "Financial, Industrial & Technology" (FIT) factor performance in CY2023-to-date

Source: Equitable Investors

Proxy Fed Funds Rate

Source: Charles Schwab

Year-on-year inflation is slowing in some countries

Source: Moody's

Change in S&P 500 Quarterly EPS: 1st month of quarter

Source: FactSet

S&P 500 As Reported (GAAP) EPS Growth (Year-on-Year %)

Source: Creative Planning. @CharlieBilello

Survey of Professional Forecasters US Recession Probability

Source: Pitchbook, Morningstar, @macroalf

Australian Venture Capital raisings by number and amount

Source: Cut Through Venture, Folkelore Ventures

Forward EV/EVITDA multiples over 10 years for tech leaders

Source: TIKR, Equitable Investors

Global equity & bond fund flows

Source: JP Morgan

~$US1.5 trillion wiped out in crypto market capitalisation in 2022

Source: ARK Investment Management

Perceived public sector corruption in 2022

Source: Statista, Transparency International

February Edition

Funds operated by this manager:

Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund

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Nothing in this blog constitutes investment advice - or advice in any other field. Neither the information, commentary or any opinion contained in this blog constitutes a solicitation or offer by Equitable Investors Pty Ltd (Equitable Investors) or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Nor shall any such security be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase, or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.

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Hedge Clippings |24 February 2023

24 Feb 2023 - FundMonitors.com

Beware the Politician with his hand in your pocket... The government set the proverbial cat among the pigeons this week with the "floating" of ideas to change the superannuation system - with a particular emphasis on the top end...

24 Feb 2023 - Hedge Clippings |24 February 2023

By: FundMonitors.com

Hedge Clippings | 24 February 2023

Beware of the Politician with his hand in your pocket...

The government set the proverbial cat among the pigeons this week with the "floating" of ideas to change the superannuation system - with a particular emphasis on the top end of town, and it seems those fortunate - or smart enough - to have a super balance of $3 million or more. Depending on where you sit - or maybe that should be where your super balance sits - this is either irrelevant or a clear breach of then shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers' statement on the ABC in March last year that "Australians shouldn't expect major changes to superannuation if the government changes hands."

Chalmers is on electorally safe ground for two reasons: Firstly, it's a fair bet that Labor will stay in office for at least one term after the present one, and secondly, he quotes the statistic that the average balance in super is about $150,000. Of course, this is misleading, presumably deliberately, so as not to alienate the "average" voter. The average balance includes those who have only recently joined the workforce - and by recently that would include those on "average" wages who've been working for the past 20 years. According to AMP, you'll need to be closer to 50 than 40 to have a super balance of $150,000 while the average super balance of a 65-70 year old male is $414,380, and $370,042 for a female.

Unfortunately, AFSA calculates that a comfortable retirement lifestyle requires a balance of $640,000, so the average is not going to be enough for the average retiree. Super is great, but for the majority is not enough.

Chalmers, Albanese, and Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones have all hit the airwaves to re-iterate that any changes are fairly and squarely aimed at the top end of town, and unlikely to resonate elsewhere - although they should. For far too long superannuation has been tweaked by both sides of politics to the extent that it is incomprehensible to the average (there's that word again) worker. Successive governments have used a combination of carrot (tax incentives for voluntary contributions) and stick (legislation to compel employers to pay or deduct from wages) to reduce the reliance on welfare in retirement. Both have been successful but only up to a point.

The stick has helped, but not enough to provide a comfortable retirement to the average retiree. Meanwhile, the carrot has, for those in the treasurer's sights, been overly successful, such that he wants his share of their success! You can't offer a carrot, then take a stick to those who make the most of it. You know what they say about the dangers of having a politician's hand in your pocket...

While it seems the devil will be in the detail, hints are that the aim is to limit the amount one can have in super to $3 million. This seems patently unworkable to a simple mind such as ours. More logical would be to set a reasonable tax rate for income over a certain level (excluding capital withdrawal) from super in retirement. That won't be popular either, because once a tax has been introduced it will only be a matter of time before it is increased.

Chalmers is trying to avoid the stuff-up Bill Shorten made suggesting changes to franking credits before his 2019 election loss. His other target might be negative gearing on property, but too many pollies have second properties (Albo included) so that's not likely as too many votes would evaporate. Taxing the super of the rich (and the not so rich) is a much safer option.

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China's reopening presents opportunities for investors

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The Safeguard Mechanism - What's all the fuss about?

23 Feb 2023 - Alphinity Investment Management

The Australian ESG world was sent into a flurry by changes to the Safeguard Mechanism and Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) that were proposed in January. The Safeguard Mechanism was put in place in 2016 as part of the Emissions...

23 Feb 2023 - The Safeguard Mechanism - What's all the fuss about?

By: Alphinity Investment Management

The Safeguard Mechanism - What's all the fuss about?

Alphinity Investment Management

February 2023

The Australian ESG world was sent into a flurry by changes to the Safeguard Mechanism and Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) that were proposed in January. The Safeguard Mechanism was put in place in 2016 as part of the Emissions Reduction Fund. It essentially set emissions limits (baselines) for high-emitting industrial facilities across Australia and required facilities to buy carbon credits to compensate for any emissions in excess of that baseline. The scheme covers more than 200 individual facilities, each of which emits more than 100 000 tonnes of carbon equivalents per year. These Safeguard Facilities generate almost 30% of Australia's total emissions between them and many are owned by some of Australia's biggest listed companies including BHP, Rio Tinto, BlueScope Steel, Santos, Woodside Energy, Orica, and South32.

Last year, when the new Federal Government made a commitment - and legislated - to reduce national emissions 43% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050, it flagged the need to strengthen the Safeguard Mechanism which would continue to encourage Australia's largest emitters to reduce emissions. The Government finally released its position paper in January which proposed changes to the scheme. Although many expected this would be the final say on the changes, the Government has committed to one more round of feedback (due 24 February), before final changes will come into force on 1 July 2023.

There are a number of key changes to the scheme which may mean many companies will exceed their baselines at a facility level (at least initially), however, this will be more of an issue for companies which have most of their operations in Australia. The Safeguard Mechanism will have less of an impact on companies like BHP, that operate globally, since the facility level impact will be diluted at the group level.

Changes to the scheme

A few important changes to be aware of:

Safeguard Mechanism facilities can no longer generate ACCUs: Historically, the scheme allowed companies to generate ACCUs for activities which promote carbon abatement. These ACCUs were then sold to the Government or into the market, and essentially helped fund energy efficiency projects. Now, Safeguard Facilities can no longer generate ACCUs. Safeguard Facilities which reduce emissions below their assigned baselines will instead be allocated Safeguard Mechanism Credits (SMCs) which they can either bank and use later, sell to another safeguard facility, or use to meet a baseline at another of its facilities. Any existing contracts with the Government would still be valid. The paper states that "it doesn't make sense to allow projects that reduce regulated emissions to generate offsets". We agree with this statement, and support the overall aim to improve the credibility of ACCUs, however we do have some concerns that introducing another crediting system is going to introduce complexity in pricing and trading.
Baselines will decrease by 4.9% year-on-year and be set based on industry averages:
- The Government intends to retain the existing production-adjusted (intensity) baseline framework, which allows baselines to grow and fall with production. However, baselines will now be set using a "hybrid approach". Initially, baselines will be tilted towards the historical site-specific emissions, but as 2030 approaches baselines will move towards industry averages. Baselines for any new facilities will be set based on international best practice.
- Baselines will reduce 4.9% per annum from the industry average. This means that reductions of more than 4.9% will be required for some companies to meet the baseline if the current emissions are above industry average.

For example, the graph below shows the change to the baselines for Bluescope Steel's Port Kembla asset. Assuming its production remains largely consistent, there would be a 14% difference between emissions at the facility and the baseline requirements in 2030.

Source: Credit Suisse

Lots of flexibility in the scheme: Recognising that emissions pathways are rarely linear, the scheme builds in a lot of flexibility so companies will be able to meet their compliance requirements without being unfairly impacted at any particular point. For example, unlimited banking of SMCs would be allowed to 2030. Borrowing of up to 10% of the baseline each year would also be allowed to 2030. Finally, multi-year monitoring periods up to 2030 would be available, whereby a facility that has exceeded its baseline emissions due to a lack of available technology, but has a firm and credible plan in place to reduce cumulative emissions before the end of the five year period, has room to move. There is also a proposed penalty for facilities which don't meet the compliance requirements, although we believe it is unlikely that this will be imposed on many companies when it will likely be much cheaper just to buy ACCUs or SMCs.
Trade-exposed industry facilities (known as IETE) can apply for special considerations: 80% of companies under the scheme are considered to be trade exposed. If the cost impact of buying ACCUs/SMCs is more than 3% of revenues at a facility level, these companies can apply for funding support and a baseline adjustment to reduce the pace of baseline decline to 2% instead of 4.9%. The Government has also allocated some funding for these companies to support emissions reduction initiatives.
ACCUs issued by the Government will be capped at $A75/tonne: This cap does not apply to ACCUs bought and sold in the broader market or to SMCs traded between facilities. For context, at the time of writing, ACCUs cost about half that amount, and their equivalents were trading at ~€85 ($A130) in Europe and ~$US80 ($A110) in California. It is envisaged that these credits would be purchased by Safeguard Facility companies that exceed their baselines and need credits (ACCUs or SMCs) to meet their compliance requirements. This cap will be reviewed in 2026-27. There has been no comment on the pricing structure for SMCs. There has also been no commitment from the Government that it will ensure there will be sufficient ACCUs to service all the facilities which need them. This means it is possible there will be a third pricing structure consideration for companies that buy ACCUs from the wider market, rather than from the Government.

Stock implications

Most companies under this scheme will be impacted in some way. However, we expect that companies with concentrated assets in Australia that are also considered 'hard to abate' will be most negatively impacted. For example, the following potential impacts for Bluescope (BSL), Adelaide Brighton (ABC) and Woodside (WDS) have been estimated by Credit Suisse:

BSL would need to reduce its emissions at its Port Kembla steel-making facility by 42% to meet the new 2030 baseline. The potential cumulative cost for carbon credits is $712 million (assuming the company meets its existing climate targets and the price of credits is $75/tCO2e). At 2025, assuming production stays the same, the potential EBITDA impact could be 9.5%.
ABC would need to reduce its emissions at its Cockburn and Birkenhead cement-making facilities by 28% to meet the new 2030 baselines (Dongara is excluded from this assessment). Assuming a $75/tCO2e carbon price, the potential cumulative cost could be $109 million. At 2025, assuming production stays the same, the potential EBITDA impact could be 10%. The potential cumulative cost to buy carbon credits between now and 2030 is $89m
WDS would need to reduce its emissions at two facilities by 68% to meet the new 2030 baselines, and there is a potential cumulative cost of $384 million assuming the company meets its existing climate targets and the price of credits is $75/tCO2e. The EBITDA impact in 2025 however is only expected to be 0.3%.
These companies could all be eligible for the IETE funding/baseline adjustment, however most modelling that we have seen estimates the cost impact would be less than 3% of revenue.

The changes to the ACCU rules could also have potential implications for Santos (STO) and its Carbon Capture and Storage development at Moomba. As far as we are aware, Santos was not able to secure a contract to sell ACCUs to the Government last year which means that under this new rule, it will not be able to sell ACCUs at all. It may be able to generate and sell SMCs instead, however this has not been confirmed.

Companies with ambitious emissions reduction targets and programs in place may benefit from the scheme changes. For example, Credit Suisse has estimated that Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) may be able to generate and sell SMCs between now to 2030 for $129 million (assuming a $75/tonne price consistent with ACCUs) if they meet their stated decarbonisation targets.

Summary

The changes support the Australian Government's commitment to reduce national emissions by 43% by 2030 however we expect that there will need to be further broad regulatory efforts to reduce Australia's emissions. A number of elements in the scheme will be reviewed again in 2026/27, including the ACCU price cap and baseline reduction rates.

At a company level, we expect that the cost impact will be most material for companies whose revenue-generating assets are primarily in Australia. Companies with global operations will have a smaller overall impact because the cost to purchase ACCUs or SMCs will be diluted at the group level.

Some companies may also generate SMCs if emissions are below the facility baseline. These companies can then either bank them for later years, use for compliance at other facilities, or sell these SMCs to other companies that need them for compliance.

Although the $75/tonne cap gives some certainty on pricing for Government-held ACCUs, there are still many questions about the price for non-Government held ACCUs and SMCs, and the trading mechanism for SMCs.

At this stage, all of the above changes are proposed and yet to be confirmed. However, given the amount of consultation that has taken place to date, we expect that the reform won't change materially between now and when it goes live on 1 July 2023.

Author: Jessica Cairns, Head of ESG & Sustainability

This information is for advisers & wholesale investors only.

Funds operated by this manager:

Alphinity Australian Share Fund, Alphinity Concentrated Australian Share Fund, Alphinity Global Equity Fund, Alphinity Sustainable Share Fund

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Performance Report: Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy

22 Feb 2023 - FundMonitors.com

The Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy rose by +0.96% in January. Over the past 12 months, the fund has risen by +1.72% compared with the All Countries World (AUD) benchmark which has fallen -7.84%, for a difference of +9.56%....

Performance Report: Glenmore Australian Equities Fund

22 Feb 2023 - FundMonitors.com

The Glenmore Australian Equities Fund rose by +6.49% in January, an outperformance of +0.26% compared with the ASX 200 Total Return benchmark which rose by +6.23%. Since inception in June 2017, the fund has returned +21.79% per annum, a...

China re-opening post COVID

22 Feb 2023 - 4D Infrastructure

After three years of restrictions, mass testing and rolling snap lockdowns under its 'zero-COVID' policy, China has officially signaled its intention to join the rest of the world in living with COVID.

22 Feb 2023 - China re-opening post COVID

By: 4D Infrastructure

China re-opening post COVID

4D Infrastructure

February 2023

4D N&V

While it was always a matter of when (not if) China would reopen, the abrupt change in stance has reaffirmed and brought forward multiple domestic and global investment opportunities, and could also support a global economy that was rapidly weakening.

In this article, we summarise key policy changes, the improving macro outlook, and what the reopening of the world's second biggest economy means for global listed infrastructure investors.

COVID-zero policy

On December 26, 2022, China's National Health Commission (NHC) announced that its COVID prevention and control management would be downgraded from class A (covering bubonic plague and cholera) to class B (SARS, AIDS, anthrax), effective from January 8, 2023. Class B relinquishes the power of local authorities to quarantine patients and close contacts, and lock down regions.

Since dismantling its zero-COVID policy, China has been grappling with what's shaping-up to be the biggest COVID outbreak ever seen. By mid-January, many local authorities had indicated that daily cases had passed the peak. However, we anticipate an uptick in cases following the Lunar New Year holiday, particularly in country and rural areas. It remains unclear just how severe and widespread the outbreak is, given the government stopped universal testing and changed how it defines COVID mortality.

Additionally, the abrupt policy change caught many domestic operators off guard, preventing immediate normalisation of business activity to pre-COVID activity levels. These impediments include labour disruptions (either through infection or re-training requirements), capacity and/or services shortages, entry restrictions imposed by other countries, and passport renewals/visa applications. While this may weigh on sentiment and economic activity in the near term, we expect pent-up demand, willingness to spend and policy support measures to continue to reduce bottlenecks and drive a consumption-led rebound in economic activity relatively quickly.

The Chinese roadmap to reopening post-congress

Improving macro outlook - in country and global

China held its annual Central Economic Conference in late December 2022. Emerging from the conference, policymakers set sights on growth in 2023. Officials called for targeted and forceful monetary policy and strengthened fiscal policy. The aim is to expand domestic demand, with priority given to employment, and boosting consumption.

Despite no official nationwide economic growth target being set, most provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions have unveiled their GDP growth targets for 2023, with rates ranging from 4.0-9.5% and an average of 5.95%. Consumption, investment, stimuli and policy are core pillars of the rebound. Most targets remain above the forecasts by foreign institutions and agencies, which range between 4.5-5.5%, although we have recently seen upward revisions to these following the re-opening. (Notably, IMF increased its growth forecast to 5.2% in late January-23 from 4.6% earlier projected in November-22).

At 4D, we look for the underlying data and other proxies that support the headline growth numbers. Specific to infrastructure, these include expressway traffic, railway patronage, airline passengers, gas & electricity consumption, port throughput data and plant utilisation rates. Outside of infrastructure, data includes retail sales, new car sales, new property development and sales. We accumulate and amalgamate this data as a thermometer to gauge economic activity.

The re-opening of China could also benefit a world anticipating its own domestic slowdown. For example:

Stimulus will increase demand for global products such as iron ore and steel;
We're expecting a second wave of global travel in 2023, as 140mn people (10% of the Chinese population with passports) who have been largely locked down for three years are allowed to travel.

^{Xinhua News Agency - Passengers crowded at the North Railway Station, Shenzhen waiting to cross into Hong Kong as cross-border services resumed for the first time since January 2020}

Infrastructure sector

Investment in infrastructure has been a key pillar of China's stimulus plan for decades, supporting and boosting economic growth in times of need, such as post the GFC and, more recently, throughout the pandemic. Fixed asset investment increased 5.1% to CNY57.2 trillion in 2022, up from 4.9% in 2021 and 2.9% in 2020.

The table below summarises the opportunities across the key infrastructure sub-sectors from re-opening and related policy/stimuli at both a domestic and international level.

The Chinese roadmap to reopening post-congress

On forward earnings estimates, despite the recent market rally, we highlight that Chinese listed infrastructure names remain undervalued, trading well below pre-pandemic levels and 5-year averages. Undemanding valuations and strong tailwinds in 2023 set the stage for a strong re-rating.

^{Source: Bloomberg}

Conclusion

Infrastructure will be both a key driver and a beneficiary of China's reopening, and the central government's focus on increasing domestic consumption and economic recovery. We anticipate more stimulus and policies promoting growth over the coming months, particularly post the plenary National People's Congress in March. This will bring forward the infrastructure investment needed to support the emerging middle class, continued urbanisation, decarbonisation goals and wealth equality.

The reopening has a wide-reaching impact, fostering multiple tailwinds not just within China but across our larger global listed infrastructure universe. At 4D we are capitalising on this via direct investment in China (toll roads, gas operators and ports) as well as at a global level (second wave for airports, midstream in the US and commodity transportation in Brazil, North America).

Funds operated by this manager:

4D Global Infrastructure Fund, 4D Emerging Markets Infrastructure Fund

^{The content contained in this article represents the opinions of the authors. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely as an avenue for the authors to express their personal views on investing and for the entertainment of the reader.}

Performance Report: Insync Global Quality Equity Fund

21 Feb 2023 - FundMonitors.com

The Insync Global Quality Equity Fund rose by +4.49% in January, an outperformance of +1.23% compared with the All Countries World (AUD) benchmark which rose by +3.26%. Since inception in October 2009, the fund has returned +11.55% per...

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27 Feb 2023 - 10k Words

24 Feb 2023 - Hedge Clippings |24 February 2023

24 Feb 2023 - Performance Report: Collins St Value Fund

24 Feb 2023 - China's reopening presents opportunities for investors

23 Feb 2023 - Performance Report: Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund

23 Feb 2023 - The Safeguard Mechanism - What's all the fuss about?

Changes to the scheme

Source: Credit Suisse

Stock implications

Summary

22 Feb 2023 - Performance Report: Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy

22 Feb 2023 - Performance Report: Glenmore Australian Equities Fund

22 Feb 2023 - China re-opening post COVID

COVID-zero policy

The Chinese roadmap to reopening post-congress

Improving macro outlook - in country and global

Infrastructure sector

The Chinese roadmap to reopening post-congress

Conclusion

21 Feb 2023 - Performance Report: Insync Global Quality Equity Fund

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