A short week - and an argument for being short the banks, or avoiding ETF's.

It's been a pretty busy week for one with only four working days - in most of Australia at least. Quite how we have a system where the same event - the Queen's Birthday - is celebrated on three different Mondays in either June, September or October depending on which state you're in, is bizarre.  It's no wonder we have a complex tax system if the same bureaucrats and politicians came up with dates for public holidays…

Apologies - where were we?  The busy week that was… Firstly Trump, who no one thought would make it to the White House in the first place, achieved what many thought was a diplomatic impossibility by shaking hands with Kim Jong-Un and inking the bones of an agreement that none of his more diplomatic predecessors had even dreamed of.

Then Jerome Powell and the US Fed upped US rates by 25 bps, and the markets … did nothing. The RBA, and then the ECB, kept rates on hold, with the latter announcing the end of QE will take place in December. More of the same… nothing.

Fresh from Singapore, Trump is tonight scheduled to announce tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese products, which will inevitably lead to an upping of the trade war with both retaliation and rhetoric from China's President Xi Jinping. Watch that space with care.

Meanwhile at home, we gave some focus to the banking sector (again) but this time on the big 4 banks' share price declines over the past 12 months, which caused Hedge Clippings to reflect on one of the great flaws in the passive investing approach of ETF's.

Consider this: Over the past 12 months the share price of each of the big four banks has fallen around 20%, whilst Telstra has fallen almost double that.  These five stocks make up just under 30% of the market cap of the ASX200, which in spite of this Famous Five's 12 month performance, has managed to rise approximately 5%.

Any investor in an ASX200 ETF, or even worse in an ASX Top20 ETF, has, for better or worse (in fact for worse!) had their returns dramatically curtailed as a result. Simply accepting whatever the market as a whole throws at you and justifying the decision on the basis of low fees makes little sense to us.

While we accept that the opposite can occur as well, boutique or concentrated funds which can avoid - or select - individual stocks, sectors or markets by using their skill and experience on a discretionary basis are worth finding and if appropriate, investing in. Certainly some will perform better than others, and not all of them will perform in unison. Whilst possibly biased, we would argue that a diversified portfolio of well researched boutique managers will provide a better return, with lower volatility and risk, than the overall market and therefore a passive ETF.