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23 Jan 2023 - Performance Report: Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund
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| Fund Overview | There is a slight bias to large cap stocks on the long side of the portfolio, although in a rising market the portfolio will tend to hold smaller caps, including resource stocks, more frequently. On the short side, the portfolio is particularly concentrated, with stock selection limited by both liquidity and the difficulty of borrowing stock in smaller cap companies. Short positions are only taken when there is a high conviction view on the specific stock. The Fund uses derivatives in a limited way, mainly selling short dated covered call options to generate additional income. These typically have less than 30 days to expiry, and are usually 5% to 10% out of the money. ASX SPI futures and index put options can be used to hedge the portfolio's overall net position. The Fund's discretionary investment strategy commences with a macro view of the economy and direction to establish the portfolio's desired market exposure. Following this detailed sector and company research is gathered from knowledge of the individual stocks in the Fund's universe, with widespread use of broker research. Company visits, presentations and discussions with management at CEO and CFO level are used wherever possible to assess management quality across a range of criteria. |
| Manager Comments | The Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund has a track record of 16 years and 8 months and has outperformed the ASX 200 Total Return benchmark since inception in May 2006, providing investors with an annualised return of 7.65% compared with the benchmark's return of 6.2% over the same period. On a calendar year basis, the fund has experienced a negative annual return on 3 occasions in the 16 years and 8 months since its inception. Over the past 12 months, the fund's largest drawdown was -5.38% vs the index's -11.9%, and since inception in May 2006 the fund's largest drawdown was -11.71% vs the index's maximum drawdown over the same period of -47.19%. The fund's maximum drawdown began in June 2018 and lasted 2 years and 6 months, reaching its lowest point during December 2018. The fund had completely recovered its losses by December 2020. During this period, the index's maximum drawdown was -26.75%. The Manager has delivered these returns with 6.72% less volatility than the benchmark, contributing to a Sharpe ratio which has fallen below 1 five times over the past five years and which currently sits at 0.64 since inception. The fund has provided positive monthly returns 87% of the time in rising markets and 32% of the time during periods of market decline, contributing to an up-capture ratio since inception of 14% and a down-capture ratio of 55%. |
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23 Jan 2023 - Performance Report: Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund
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| Manager Comments | The Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund has a track record of 13 years and 11 months and has outperformed the ASX 200 Total Return benchmark since inception in February 2009, providing investors with an annualised return of 13.04% compared with the benchmark's return of 9.66% over the same period. On a calendar year basis, the fund has experienced a negative annual return on 3 occasions in the 13 years and 11 months since its inception. Over the past 12 months, the fund's largest drawdown was -22.65% vs the index's -11.9%, and since inception in February 2009 the fund's largest drawdown was -32.24% vs the index's maximum drawdown over the same period of -26.75%. The fund's maximum drawdown began in December 2021 and has so far lasted 1 year, reaching its lowest point during December 2022. During this period, the index's maximum drawdown was -11.9%. The Manager has delivered these returns with 1.99% more volatility than the benchmark, contributing to a Sharpe ratio which has fallen below 1 five times over the past five years and which currently sits at 0.72 since inception. The fund has provided positive monthly returns 90% of the time in rising markets and 18% of the time during periods of market decline, contributing to an up-capture ratio since inception of 131% and a down-capture ratio of 97%. |
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23 Jan 2023 - Outlook Snapshot
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Outlook Snapshot Cyan Investment Management December 2022 |
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As a broad statement, it feels as if the market is in somewhat of a holding pattern. Even the central banks seem uncertain about the economic outlook. For example, in June last year, the governor of the US Fed, Jerome Powell, explained ''I think we now understand better how little we understand about inflation''. Further, RBA stated that interest rates would stay low until 2024. It has subsequently increased rates by 300 basis points (bp) with the most recent rise of 25bp taking the cash rate to 3.1%. The tightening of monetary policy has been swift and aggressive, which has thrown equities markets into a spin. As stated in our September monthly report: "We believe the most-likely first positive catalyst for a stock market recovery will be a line of sight as to when the interest rate hike cycle will end. Most central banks in developed economies are rapidly and aggressively raising rates. Stock markets hate this. We don't know if this monetary policy strategy will curb inflation as hoped, but an end to this cycle could provide a clear positive catalyst for a shift in sentiment for equities." The market is currently consumed by this issue and economists seem to be at the centre of every discussion. Gareth Aird, Commonwealth Bank's head of Australian economics, had previously forecast the RBA's rate hike in early December would be the last but he has updated his predictions after the RBA signalled more rate rises. He stated, "The tweak in forward guidance was not as material as we anticipated and as a result, we shift our risk case to our base case....We now expect one further 25 basis point rate hike in February 2023 for a peak in the cash rate of 3.35 per cent". Chief Economist at AMP Shane Oliver believes the cash rate has now "peaked" -- with a high risk of one final 0.25 per cent hike to 3.35 per cent in February. By end 2023 or early 2024 he expects the RBA to start cutting rates. However, that value doesn't get released in a straight line, and we are in the middle of one of those frustrating periods at the moment. But the market is forward looking, so investors waiting for genuine clarity around the economy may well find that the market has already moved ahead of them this year. |
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Funds operated by this manager: Cyan C3G Fund |
Firstly, good riddance to 2022, which for most investors and the majority of fund managers was a year they'd happily forget.
20 Jan 2023 - Hedge Clippings |20 January 2023
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 20 January 2023 Welcome to the first edition of Hedge Clippings for 2023. Firstly, good riddance to 2022, which for most investors and the majority of fund managers was a year they'd happily forget. The cause of most of the damage was the sharp increase in interest rates, triggered in turn by an outbreak of inflation, as noted by L1 Capital in their December performance report:
The last sentence reveals why so many funds struggled in 2022. No one expected an inflationary break out, thus market expectations - including those of central banks - for rates rises were subdued, to say the least. Throw in the unexpected invasion of Ukraine in February, plus turmoil in China, and it's easy to see why only 29% of the 700+ funds in the FundMonitors database, (including the above mentioned L1 Capital's Global Long Short Fund which returned 9.8%) provided positive returns for the year, and less than a quarter of all equity funds managed to outperform the ASX 200 Accumulation Index. Put bluntly, central banks, including our own RBA, and economists were caught looking in the wrong direction, and thus fund managers had to readjust to the new environment, which by the last quarter of the year many had managed to do. The ASX fared better than most global markets, falling 1.08% on an accumulation basis, while the S&P500 was down 18%, and the NASDAQ fell 33%. Unusually in times of equity market turmoil, bond markets didn't provide a safe haven. Looking forward, it seems inflation, while still a major issue, may have peaked in the last quarter of 2022, particularly in the US where it dropped to 6.45% in December, down from 9.06% in June. Meanwhile, in the UK the December annual inflation figure was 10.5%, down slightly from 10.7% the previous month. That may allow central banks to ease off on further rate rises, but we are unlikely to see rates fall until much later in the year, by which time the looming recession will have been confirmed. So while the path ahead is not going to be easy, and is still uncertain, hopefully, there are less unknowns: The war in Ukraine will drag on, and hopefully not escalate further. China remains a 50/50 bet, although a far cry from the economic and political juggernaut it seemed to be a couple of years ago. COVID, whilst remaining a threat thankfully seems to be receding or at least becoming more manageable. Of course, thinking that the bad news is already out there is dangerous - the unexpected is always just around the corner. But compared to this time last year, surely markets are more prepared for what might lie ahead? |
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News & Insights Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management Market Update | Australian Secure Capital Fund December 2022 Performance News Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Argonaut Natural Resources Fund 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Insync Global Quality Equity Fund Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) |
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20 Jan 2023 - Performance Report: Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class)
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| Fund Overview | The Fund offers a choice of three investment classes, each of which adopts a different investment strategy: - The Digital Opportunities Class identifies and trades low risk arbitrage opportunities between different exchanges and a number of digital assets; - The Digital Index Class tracks the performance of a basket of digital assets; - The Bitcoin Index Class tracks the performance of Bitcoin. Digital Opportunities Class: This class appeals to investors seeking an active exposure to the digital asset markets with no directional bias. The Digital Opportunities Class employs a high frequency inspired Market Neutral strategy trading 24/7 which uses a systematic approach designed to offer uncorrelated returns to the underlying highly volatile cryptocurrency markets. The strategy systematically exploits low-risk arbitrage opportunities across the most liquid and active digital asset markets on the most respected exchanges. When appropriate the Fund may obtain leverage, including through borrowing cash, securities and other instruments, and entering into derivative transactions and repurchase agreements. DAFM has a currency hedging policy in place for the Units in the Fund. Units in the Fund will be hedged against exposure to assets denominated in US dollars through a trading account with spot, forwards and options as directed by DAFM. |
| Manager Comments | The Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) has a track record of 1 year and 8 months and therefore comparison over all market conditions and against its peers is limited. However, the fund has outperformed the S&P Cryptocurrency Broad Digital Market benchmark since inception in May 2021, providing investors with an annualised return of 31.5% compared with the benchmark's return of -50.31% over the same period. Over the past 12 months, the fund's largest drawdown was -1.96% vs the index's -63.76%, and since inception in May 2021 the fund's largest drawdown was -1.96% vs the index's maximum drawdown over the same period of -74.1%. The fund's maximum drawdown began in November 2022 and has so far only lasted 1 month. The Manager has delivered these returns with 49.21% less volatility than the benchmark, contributing to a Sharpe ratio for performance over the past 12 months of 0.55 and for performance since inception of 1.36. The fund has provided positive monthly returns 100% of the time in rising markets and 92% of the time during periods of market decline, contributing to an up-capture ratio since inception of 5% and a down-capture ratio of -45%. |
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20 Jan 2023 - Performance Report: Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged)
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| Fund Overview | The Fund will invest in a number of global listed real estate companies, groups or funds. The investment strategy is to make investments in real estate securities at a price that will deliver a real, after inflation, total return of 5% per annum (before costs and fees), inclusive of distributions over a longer-term period. The Investment Strategy is indifferent to the constraints of any index benchmarks and is relatively concentrated in its number of investments. The Fund is expected to own between 20 and 40 securities, and from time to time up to 20% of the portfolio maybe invested in cash. The Fund is $A un-hedged. |
| Manager Comments | The Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) has a track record of 7 years and has outperformed the FTSE EPRA/ NAREIT Developed NET TR benchmark since inception in January 2016, providing investors with an annualised return of 5.46% compared with the benchmark's return of 2.85% over the same period. On a calendar year basis, the fund has experienced a negative annual return on 2 occasions in the 7 years since its inception. Over the past 12 months, the fund's largest drawdown was -19.65% vs the index's -18.49%, and since inception in January 2016 the fund's largest drawdown was -22.45% vs the index's maximum drawdown over the same period of -26.61%. The fund's maximum drawdown began in January 2022 and has so far lasted 11 months, reaching its lowest point during September 2022. During this period, the index's maximum drawdown was -20.72%. The Manager has delivered these returns with 0.54% less volatility than the benchmark, contributing to a Sharpe ratio which has fallen below 1 five times over the past five years and which currently sits at 0.4 since inception. The fund has provided positive monthly returns 92% of the time in rising markets and 11% of the time during periods of market decline, contributing to an up-capture ratio since inception of 106% and a down-capture ratio of 93%. |
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20 Jan 2023 - Performance Report: Bennelong Australian Equities Fund
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| Manager Comments | The Bennelong Australian Equities Fund has a track record of 13 years and 11 months and has outperformed the ASX 200 Total Return benchmark since inception in February 2009, providing investors with an annualised return of 11.47% compared with the benchmark's return of 9.66% over the same period. On a calendar year basis, the fund has experienced a negative annual return on 2 occasions in the 13 years and 11 months since its inception. Over the past 12 months, the fund's largest drawdown was -20.87% vs the index's -11.9%, and since inception in February 2009 the fund's largest drawdown was -30.31% vs the index's maximum drawdown over the same period of -26.75%. The fund's maximum drawdown began in December 2021 and has so far lasted 1 year, reaching its lowest point during September 2022. During this period, the index's maximum drawdown was -11.9%. The Manager has delivered these returns with 1.53% more volatility than the benchmark, contributing to a Sharpe ratio which has fallen below 1 five times over the past five years and which currently sits at 0.65 since inception. The fund has provided positive monthly returns 91% of the time in rising markets and 16% of the time during periods of market decline, contributing to an up-capture ratio since inception of 123% and a down-capture ratio of 100%. |
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20 Jan 2023 - Performance Report: Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund
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| Fund Overview | In a typical environment the Fund will hold around 70 stocks comprising 35 pairs. Each pair contains one long and one short position each of which will have been thoroughly researched and are selected from the same market sector. Whilst in an ideal environment each stock's position will make a positive return, it is the relative performance of the pair that is important. As a result the Fund can make positive returns when each stock moves in the same direction provided the long position outperforms the short one in relative terms. However, if neither side of the trade is profitable, strict controls are required to ensure losses are limited. The Fund uses no derivatives and has no currency exposure. The Fund has no hard stop loss limits, instead relying on the small average position size per stock (1.5%) and per pair (3%) to limit exposure. Where practical pairs are always held within the same sector to limit cross sector risk, and positions can be held for months or years. The Bennelong Market Neutral Fund, with same strategy and liquidity is available for retail investors as a Listed Investment Company (LIC) on the ASX. |
| Manager Comments | The Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund has a track record of 20 years and 11 months and has outperformed the ASX 200 Total Return benchmark since inception in February 2002, providing investors with an annualised return of 12.49% compared with the benchmark's return of 7.94% over the same period. On a calendar year basis, the fund has experienced a negative annual return on 4 occasions in the 20 years and 11 months since its inception. Over the past 12 months, the fund's largest drawdown was -13.62% vs the index's -11.9%, and since inception in February 2002 the fund's largest drawdown was -30.59% vs the index's maximum drawdown over the same period of -47.19%. The fund's maximum drawdown began in September 2020 and has so far lasted 2 years and 3 months, reaching its lowest point during June 2022. During this period, the index's maximum drawdown was -15.05%. The Manager has delivered these returns with 0.5% less volatility than the benchmark, contributing to a Sharpe ratio which has fallen below 1 five times over the past five years and which currently sits at 0.73 since inception. The fund has provided positive monthly returns 65% of the time in rising markets and 59% of the time during periods of market decline, contributing to an up-capture ratio since inception of 4% and a down-capture ratio of -108%. |
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20 Jan 2023 - Performance Report: Insync Global Quality Equity Fund
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| Fund Overview | Insync invests in a concentrated portfolio of high quality companies that possess long 'runways' of future growth benefitting from Megatrends. Megatrends are multiyear structural and disruptive changes that transform the way we live our daily lives and result from a convergence of different underlying trends including innovation, politics, demographics, social attitudes and lifestyles. They provide important tailwinds to individual stocks and sectors, that reside within them. Insync believe this delivers exponential earnings growth ahead of market expectations. Insync screens the universe of 40,000 listed global companies to just 150 that it views as superior. This includes profitability, balance sheet performance, shareholder focus and valuations. 20-40 companies are then chosen for the portfolio. These reflect the best outcomes from further analysis using a proprietary DCF valuation, implied growth modelling, and free cash flow yield; alongside management, competitor, and industry scrutiny. The Fund may hold some cash (maximum of 5%), derivatives, currency contracts for hedging purposes, and American and/or Global Depository Receipts. It is however, for all intents and purposes, a 'long-only' fund, remaining fully invested irrespective of market cycles. |
| Manager Comments | The Insync Global Quality Equity Fund has a track record of 13 years and 3 months and has outperformed the All Countries World Index benchmark since inception in October 2009, providing investors with an annualised return of 11.26% compared with the benchmark's return of 10.01% over the same period. On a calendar year basis, the fund has experienced a negative annual return on 2 occasions in the 13 years and 3 months since its inception. Over the past 12 months, the fund's largest drawdown was -23.21% vs the index's -14.06%, and since inception in October 2009 the fund's largest drawdown was -28.54% vs the index's maximum drawdown over the same period of -16.02%. The fund's maximum drawdown began in January 2022 and has so far lasted 11 months, reaching its lowest point during September 2022. The Manager has delivered these returns with 1.7% more volatility than the benchmark, contributing to a Sharpe ratio which has fallen below 1 five times over the past five years and which currently sits at 0.77 since inception. The fund has provided positive monthly returns 82% of the time in rising markets and 19% of the time during periods of market decline, contributing to an up-capture ratio since inception of 89% and a down-capture ratio of 91%. |
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20 Jan 2023 - Three Ways to Profit in 2023
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Three Ways to Profit in 2023 Wealthlander Active Investment Specialist November 2022
A year ago, we communicated that inflation and geopolitical risks would dominate 2022. Early in 2022, we predicted the recession would strike within 18 to 24 months. We now expect that the outlook for 2023 will be dominated by the following economic drivers: US and global recession, volatile inflation outcomes, and continuing geopolitical risks. This provides tremendous challenges to traditional equity and property-centric portfolios and great opportunities for unconstrained active management. Let us explore three ways we expect to benefit from this outlook to position and profit in 2023. (1) Precious Metals and Other Commodities Geopolitical risks remain extreme, and war is a highly profitable business for some instrumental people and entities, with the Pentagon again being unable to pass an audit. The war in Ukraine is at risk of escalation and is no closer to being resolved. The Middle East remains a risk, and China and Taiwan remain unresolved. Politically the world appears to be fracturing both regionally and ideologically, and many important countries are now openly flouting US hegemony and working on deepening and developing their own trading and financial relationships. Precious metals was our favoured asset class for 2022 (and one of its top performers) and remains a must to own given the political and economic environment. Gold could easily reach new highs in 2023, offering diversification and some reasonable prospect of substantial gains. As part of a diversified portfolio, we also perceive opportunities in oil, uranium, speciality metals and food. (2) Active Management, Hedging and Shorting Even bonds may provide opportunities. Convertible bonds currently appear attractive as equity substitutes and offer better downside protection. Government bonds with duration have two-sided risks albeit they may still suffer under structural inflation, capital withdrawals or central banks unexpectedly holding their nerve and keeping policy tight for longer. Nonetheless, they will likely provide tactical opportunities to own small weightings. Liquid alternatives and trading strategies appear attractive for their low market sensitivity and their ability to protect capital. These include long/short approaches, relative value opportunities, contrarian trading, carbon trading and event-driven strategies. These strategies don't rely upon favourable equity markets to do well and provide a cash alternative, offering better capital preservation in weak markets. It is not necessary to lock up money for 7-10 years in illiquid alternatives to get the benefits of diversification, as liquid strategies provide attractive opportunities while so many stocks remain overvalued.. Investors in large commercial property managers like Blackstone are finding out that favourable published returns are not available to them when they want to redeem. Investors in some large Australian super funds could also potentially suffer similar issues, particularly if economic and financial market conditions further deteriorate. Stock picking will likely offer good opportunities into 2023, both long and short and even among some very large market leaders. Tesla looks to be the gift that keeps on giving on the short side, with the reality of strong competition, insider sales and lower growth in a recession bringing the company's valuation back down to earth. (We have successfully shorted Tesla more than once in 2022 and will likely do so again). Numerous still highly priced growth stocks are likely to disappoint further and will provide good hedging opportunities during market weakness in the early part of 2023. Companies like Zoom still fall into this category. Numerous "high promise" but currently unprofitable companies have had a disastrous 2022 whilst diluting shareholder equity by issuing large share and option incentives to management. Many large quality companies and household names where investors are hiding also appear overvalued; companies like McDonalds and Coca-Cola are trading at greater than 30 times earnings with modest growth and consumer sensitivity. Blackrock provides an opportunity to short passive management. Many commercial property stocks will likely be strong shorting opportunities, given the sector's disastrous outlook. Later in 2023, there may be significant opportunities on the long side in small caps and selective growth companies to play a recovery. On the long side, selective resource stocks still offer good longer-term opportunities, but many managers need to be avoided in the space due to demonstrably poor risk management and track records. If 2022 has proven anything at all about many money managers, it is that too many are like passive funds and rely upon rising markets, offering little risk management or capital preservation on the downside. Poor downside risk management can reveal who to avoid and switch away from! (3) Genuine Diversification and Differentiation We expect that markets will remain challenged in early 2023 as economic mismanagement, increased corruption and malfeasance, geopolitical, valuation, and volatile inflation and interest rate pressures continue haunting broad market outlooks. This will again prove highly challenging for passive management, which must wear all these factors to its detriment. Genuine active management, fundamental research, risk management and conservatism appear essential in this environment. We still see the end of a previously favourable period of globalisation and peaceful prosperity. Wages pressure, demographic issues and greater protectionism, regionalism, autocracy and greater socialism, along with less workforce participation, mean the labour and capital balance is shifting. Higher structural inflation and volatile inflation outcomes in coming years, along with various tail risks, must be carefully considered when building a portfolio and mean that the portfolio of the 2020s should be fundamentally different from years past. It is essential to be more conservative and have better diversification in this environment rather than simply gambling on strong financial asset returns, as the latter approach is best suited to a period that has now gone. 2022 has shown that many bottom-up investors who ignored these crucial top-down factors have been severely punished, for example, by holding large allocations to growth stocks or investing in what were traditionally defensive investments such as government bonds. Funds operated by this manager: WealthLander Diversified Alternative Fund DISCLAIMER: This Article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment or financial advice nor an offer to acquire a financial product. Before acting on any information contained in this Article, each person should obtain independent taxation, financial and legal advice relating to this information and consider it carefully before making any decision or recommendation. To the extent this Article does contain advice, in preparing any such advice in this Article, we have not taken into account any particular person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Furthermore, you may not rely on this message as advice unless subsequently confirmed by letter signed by an authorised representative of WealthLander Pty Ltd (WealthLander). You should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend you obtain financial advice specific to your situation before making any financial investment or insurance decision. WealthLander makes no representation or warranty as to whether the information is accurate, complete or up-to-date. To the extent permitted by law, we accept no responsibility for any misstatements or omissions, negligent or otherwise, and do not guarantee the integrity of the Article (or any attachments). All opinions and views expressed constitute judgment as of the date of writing and may change at any time without notice and without obligation. WealthLander Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR Number 001285158) of Boutique Capital Pty Ltd ACN 621 697 621 AFSL No.508011. |
