Equities 2023 - What's the bigger risk?

Insync Fund Managers

January 2023

Insync Funds Management CEO, Monik Kotecha, says there's no denying that 2022 was a difficult year for equities - but as one US commentator recently pointed out, years in which the S&P was down more than 18%, as it was in 2022, have been followed by years of 20% plus returns, every single time for the past 90 years. This, plus a few other key factors identified by Insync suggest that standing on the sidelines may pose a bigger risk than investing.

Equities 2023 - What's the bigger risk?

As we enter 2023, Insync Funds Management CEO, Monik Kotecha says standing on the sidelines may pose a bigger risk than investing.

Everybody, and their mother, brother, sister, cousin, and uncle, is negative on the first half of 2023.

Wealth destruction was the dominant theme of 2022. The global equity market shrank US$15 trillion in market capitalization, while global bond markets saw US$30 trillion in value wiped out. Virtually every asset class declined. Oil held up better, rising strongly in the first half but correcting as global growth expectations faltered, ending the year flat.

The US dollar was the big winner, which rose 9% year-to-date. Cash, which was considered 'trash', gained 1.8%. High inflation, slowing growth and monetary tightening largely characterized the global economy throughout 2022. Rising inflation and slowing growth created stagflation concerns.

But we think the market may surprise on the upside in 2023.

The impact of 2022

There's no denying that 2022 was a difficult year for equities - but as US senior investment analyst, Luke Lango, from InvestorPlace recently pointed out, years in which the S&P was down more than 18%, as it was in 2022, have been followed by years of 20% plus returns, every single time for the past 90 years.

The sentiment at year-end was very negative, which is a good contrarian indicator. Typically, the average forecast from Wall Street's top strategists predicts the S&P 500 climbing by about 10%, which is in line with historical averages. This time around, the pros are unusually cautious, with most expecting the S&P to end 2023 lower.

A Bank of America fund manager survey shows fund managers relative positioning of stocks versus bonds is the lowest level since 2009. Fund managers also hold the highest level of cash (5.9%) since the bursting of the technology bubble in 2000/01.

The consensus view is that earnings have further to fall in 2023 and this remains a top investor concern. The market (buyside) tends to look out 6-12 months ahead of sell side analysts, and anticipates any earnings decline in advance of it actually happening.

Earnings have historically bottomed after stocks bottomed. Since 1950, the trough in earnings growth lagged the bottom in the S&P 500 by about 6-7 months. Stock prices tend to inflect upwards before we see improvements in earnings, GDP, and employment. October 2022 may well have marked the lows in stock prices which has already discounted the fall in earnings ahead of sell side analysts.

Looking ahead

As we enter 2023, we think standing on the sidelines may pose a bigger risk than investing. Here's why.

The US midterm elections

The US midterm elections were held in November 2022. Historically, the S&P500 has outperformed the market in the 12-month period after a US midterm election with an average return of 16.3%, and not delivered a negative return during this period over the past 60 years.

Inflation may still prove to be transitory

Many argue that inflation will be much stickier than markets currently discount, and that it will take multiple years to restore price stability (2% inflation). However, we continue to believe that the outbreak of inflation is squarely the result of the pandemic shock. As the pandemic-related economic dislocation renormalizes and the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy, inflation may well eventually fall back to pre-pandemic norms.

An area of additional concern, as a result of the pandemic, has been the reduction in the labour market participation rate. This has the potential to drive sustained increase in wages inflation and lower levels of productivity.

We are today living in the golden age of technology and innovation which we continue to consider to be deflationary for two primary reasons:

1. Technology reduces the demand for labour, which puts downward pressure on wages and employment levels, which in turn reduces demand for goods and services because workers have less money to spend

2. Technological innovation also leads to automation, tools that make workers more efficient, and the elimination of some job roles

So where are the opportunities?

We have found that the long-term cash flows and valuation of companies exposed to megatrends do not change as a result of an increase in interest rates, or a slowdown in the global economy. Megatrends are unstoppable long-term growth trends with profitable industry structures.

Here's just one example.

The 60+ age cohort is set to more than double to 2.1 billion by 2050. This is what we call a demographics megatrend. The fastest ageing group within this cohort is those aged 70-75 and this is where we have identified prime investing opportunities.

As the population ages, so does the incidence of chronic disease. Older people also often suffer from multiple chronic conditions at the same time. The second leading cause of death within those aged 70-75, after heart disease, is cancer.

The demand for companies providing cancer drugs is not reduced by changes in interest rates, inflation, or recession. These factors also do not change the trajectory of ageing populations, nor the increasing demand for solutions for chronic diseases.

Current volatile market conditions provide opportunities to invest in highly profitable businesses benefitting from megatrends at lower prices.

Funds operated by this manager:

Insync Global Capital Aware Fund, Insync Global Quality Equity Fund

Disclaimer
Equity Trustees Limited ("EQT") (ABN 46 004 031 298), AFSL 240975, is the Responsible Entity for the Insync Global Quality Fund and the Insync Global Capital Aware Fund. EQT is a subsidiary of EQT Holdings Limited (ABN 22 607 797 615), a publicly listed company on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX: EQT). This information has been prepared by Insync Funds Management Pty Ltd (ABN 29 125 092 677, AFSL 322891) ("Insync"), to provide you with general information only. In preparing this information, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. It is not intended to take the place of professional advice and you should not take action on specific issues in reliance on this information. Neither Insync, EQT nor any of its related parties, their employees or directors, provide and warranty of accuracy or reliability in relation to such information or accepts any liability to any person who relies on it. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future performance. You should obtain a copy of the Product Disclosure Statement before making a decision about whether to invest in this product.

Hedge Clippings | Friday, 27 January 2023

In case you're still basking on the beach (or wherever) in blissful ignorance, Australia's December quarter inflation figure came in higher than expectations at 7.8%. Of course, if you ARE still away, you may also not be spending your Friday afternoon reading Hedge Clippings, but either way, it seems like RBA Governor Philip Lowe's New Year is going to start off being as difficult as his old one, although he'll no doubt be considerably more careful with his longer term forecasts than last year.  

The bottom line is that we suspect inflation is likely to stay stronger for longer, disappointing the optimists who were expecting it to peak early in the new year under the influence of last year's sharp rate rises. Thus, given the RBA's, and their offshore colleagues' previous perilous prognostications (try saying that quickly after a glass or three of Friday's lunchtime vino) that inflation can't and must not be allowed to become entrenched, there's going to be more pain in the form of rate rises, most likely when the RBA board gets together for the first time next Tuesday week.

Early reports suggest some leading bank economists are predicting only one more rate rise, but the futures market is indicating at least two more, with no easing in sight until 2024 at least. So with the RBA's official rate currently sitting at 3.1%, and a 100% market probability of another 0.25% in February, we could see rates at 3.8% sometime in the June quarter. The consecutive rate increases totaling 3% in 2022 were the sharpest/fastest in most memories, so another 50 to 75 bps will put the icing even on that.

The problem is that consumer spending hasn't changed significantly to have had an impact on inflation, and as yet, whilst there's obviously some stress in the housing market and in mortgage land, the flow-on effects that Philip Lowe is looking for haven't occurred. Of particular worry will be the fact that whilst last year's inflationary spike was primarily imported, unavoidable, or externally generated, (floods, oil, supply chain, Ukraine etc) there's the risk that home-grown inflation from wages pressure in a tight post-COVID labour market takes over.

The theme of many of last year's editions of "Hedge Clippings" was interest rates and inflation, so it looks as if this year's shaping up the same way. Ditto Ukraine, which sadly doesn't look like ending quickly. Meanwhile, it does (hopefully) seem that the focus on the hard done by, but over-privileged whinger from Montecito has faded, although possibly only until his next issue - likely to be not getting a front row seat at the Coronation.

Next week we'll publish the Australian Fund Monitors Review of fund and sector performances for 2022. In the meantime, we can recommend the four part documentary series on Bernie Madoff currently showing on Netflix.  Or if you want something less serious, but no less enjoyable, try "Slow Horses" on Apple TV. Both are variously both more educational or entertaining than the six part Netflix saga of Harry and Meghan. That's it - the last time we mention them. (Promise).

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