NEWS
3 Oct 2025 - Hedge Clippings |03 October 2025
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 03 October 2025 At its board meeting this week, the RBA kept the cash rate steady at 3.60 per cent - exactly as expected. In fact, so widely anticipated was the decision that it barely rated more than a passing mention in the media. What caught the RBA's attention was last week's partial monthly inflation number for August, which ticked up to 3.0 per cent - right at the top of their 2-3% target range. That result raises the prospect that the outcome for the full September quarter CPI, due out on October 29 (just in time for the Cup Day meeting), could spoil the party for homeowners still hoping for relief. News | Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Trip Insights: Latin America | 4D Infrastructure Renewable energy investment: gloom or boom? | Magellan Asset Management August 2025 Performance News |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
26 Sep 2025 - Hedge Clippings |26 September 2025
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 26 September 2025 - Helicopter view of the Economy
Across the Pacific, the US economy surprised to the upside in the second quarter. Revised figures show GDP running at an annualised 3.8%, well ahead of the initial 3.3% estimate and the fastest clip in almost two years. The driver was the consumer, with spending up 2.5%, supported by an upswing in investment in intellectual property - particularly software and AI. Not all sectors pulled their weight, but financial services, information technology, and manufacturing made solid contributions. Economists, however, were quick to point out the obvious caveat: while the data looks strong, its durability is less clear. A still-uncertain trade policy environment, persistent tariff disputes, and the shadow of slowing global demand could yet put a lid on momentum, while the previous week's soft employment numbers, and the upward inflation pressures remain. Back home, the inflation story also continues to play out. The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator rose 3.0% in the 12 months to August 2025, according to the ABS - up from 2.8% in July, and the highest annual rate since July 2024. Housing (+4.5%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.0%), and alcohol and tobacco (+6.0%) were the largest contributors. The annual trimmed mean inflation rate edged down slightly to 2.6% in August from 2.7% in July, but the CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel accelerated to 3.4%, compared with 3.2% previously. Housing inflation, in particular, reflected higher electricity costs, with the annual rise skewed by the expiry of one-off rebates. In August last year, households in Queensland, WA and Tasmania were cushioned by State Government rebates of $1000, $400, and $250 respectively. With those programs now finished, out-of-pocket costs have risen, leaving electricity prices up 5.9% year-on-year once rebates are stripped out. On a monthly basis, however, electricity costs fell 6.3% in August, mainly due to NSW and ACT households receiving the first payments of the extended Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates. The shifting landscape of rebates makes the data noisy, and while the ABS' monthly indicator grabs headlines, the RBA remains more focused on the quarterly numbers - with the September quarter CPI not due until the end of October. Which begs the question: what will the RBA Board do when it meets next week? Having just cut rates by 0.25% at their last meeting, was the Board a little too quick to bow to pressure from the media and the market? Our experts - Nick Chaplin (Seed Funds Management) and Renny Ellis (Arculus) - might be tempted to say, "I told you so." For now, it seems inevitable that the Board will sit on its hands until at least their November meeting. With some banks and economists starting to backtrack on their expectations of multiple cuts before Christmas, the latest inflation uptick adds an uncomfortable wrinkle. Maybe only one at the most? News | Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Manager Insights | East Coast Capital Management Market Update | Australian Secure Capital Fund Investment Perspectives: Riding the silver tsunami | Quay Global Investors August 2025 Performance News Insync Global Quality Equity Fund DAFM Digital Income Fund (Digital Income Class) Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
19 Sep 2025 - Hedge Clippings |19 September 2025
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 19 September 2025
Hedge Clippings - All about the Donald! The US Federal Reserve did what markets had been anticipating - and Donald Trump has been crying out for - cutting rates by 25 bps and flagging that two more are on the way. Trump will claim the credit no doubt, and his new FED appointee Stephen Miren - direct from his day job at the White House - voted against the move, instead arguing for a .50% cut. However, Jerome Powell stuck to his guns, and it went by the numbers, 11-1 in favour of 0.25%. The move came off the back of weaker employment numbers as job growth has slowed, partly due to Trump's immigration policy, and despite stronger inflation, which Powell described as "somewhat elevated". But the complication is tariffs. While Trump won't admit it, his trade barriers are acting as a tax on consumers, pushing up the cost of goods and feeding through to inflation. So, while the Fed is easing with one hand, they're fighting a tariff policy that is tightening the screws with the other. For investors, it's a case of celebrating cheaper money while simultaneously wondering what it says about the health of the US economy - and whether tariff-induced inflation could yet bite harder. Still on Trump, across the Atlantic, the UK was busy polishing the silverware for his visit to Windsor Castle. King Charles, who has seen his fair share of world leaders, rolled out a stunningly lavish welcome. The photo-ops were dutifully staged, but one can't help speculating what was said behind closed doors once the motorcade departed. Did Charles turn to Camilla and mutter, "Thank goodness that's over", or perhaps, "Best to count the cutlery." Sadly, we'll never know. Jokes aside, markets remain in the uncomfortable space between policy and politics. Rate cuts are meant to provide reassurance, but they also underline fragility. Trade barriers are meant to project strength, but they tend to hurt the very economies that impose them, and the people who voted for them. And while royal pageantry makes for colourful headlines, investors would do well to tune out the theatre. As we often say, "let the numbers do the talking". Right now, in the US those numbers point to an uneasy mix: slowing growth, stubborn inflation risks, and the hope that monetary stimulus buys enough time for the economy to adjust. Whether it does so depends less on the pomp at Windsor, and more on how long consumers and businesses can shoulder the contradictions of easy money, and expensive trade. What's next on the local front? Albo's off to New York, where he's hoping to have a more successful time persuading Donald to see his point of view than he did this week while trying to keep PNG and Vanuatu out of the clutches of Beijing. Hopefully (not that hope is a reliable strategy), Trump, fresh from Windsor, will still have his warm and fuzzy side on show. News | Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com 10k Words | Equitable Investors Australian Equities Reporting Season Update | Airlie Funds Management August 2025 Performance News |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
12 Sep 2025 - Hedge Clippings |12 September 2025
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 12 September 2025
News | Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Volatility insights | Canopy Investors August 2025 Performance News Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Glenmore Australian Equities Fund 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
5 Sep 2025 - Hedge Clippings | 05 September 2025
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 05 September 2025 Economic Growth Rebounds, but Rate Cuts Still a Waiting Game Australia's economy found some momentum in the June quarter, with GDP rising 0.6 per cent (seasonally adjusted, chain volume) to leave annual growth at 1.8 per cent. For the 2024-25 financial year, the economy expanded by 1.3 per cent, according to this week's figures from the ABS. Tom Lay, head of national accounts at the ABS, noted that "economic growth rebounded in the June quarter following subdued growth in the March quarter, which was heavily impacted by weather events." In other words, the headline numbers suggest the economy is not rolling over, but nor is it firing on all cylinders. For monetary policy watchers, the timing is tricky. With the next RBA board meeting set for 29/30th of September, there are precious few key data releases between now and then. August's monthly CPI will provide a guide, but as it still won't contain the full data set until November, it will have to wait the all-important September quarterly inflation figures, which don't arrive until the 29th of October--just days before the RBA's November meeting, which, as usual, coincides with Melbourne Cup day. That effectively leaves the RBA on the sidelines for now. While the latest GDP result offers some reassurance that growth hasn't flatlined, inflation dynamics will remain the key driver. Without the benefit of fresh quarterly CPI data, Michele Bullock and her colleagues are unlikely to cut rates in September. Market participants will therefore be circling November as the next realistic window for a move--if inflation co-operates. In short, the economy has shown a touch more resilience, but borrowers may need to sit tight a little longer before any further relief on rates from the current 3.6% materialises. By then of course things might be clearer for Jerome Powell in the US, although it's fair to say that the only guarantee there is that Donald Trump's tariffs will loom large over their inflationary outcome. As he will over the composition of the FED board itself. There's rarely a dull day in Trumpland, or for that matter, Trump's World, although this week even The Donald Show was upstaged by President Xi and his cohorts in China. Meanwhile, it looks like Albo's travel plans to the UN in New York may yet include a long-awaited, and possibly overdue, meeting with the US President - as long as Trump's not too busy preparing for his own State visit to the UK, and a weekend in Windsor. News | Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Manager Insights | Altor Capital Market Update | Australian Secure Capital Fund August 2025 Performance News Bennelong Australian Equities Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
29 Aug 2025 - Hedge Clippings |29 August 2025
|
|
||
|
Hedge Clippings | 29 August 2025
News | Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com The art of the comeback | Magellan Asset Management Recognising a stumble from a fall | Canopy Investors July 2025 Performance News Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund DAFM Digital Income Fund (Digital Income Class) |
||
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
22 Aug 2025 - Hedge Clippings |22 August 2025
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 22 August 2025
Video Manager Insights | Argonaut Funds Management News | Insights Investment Perspectives: 10 charts shaping our thinking | Quay Global Investors Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management July 2025 Performance News Canopy Global Small & Mid Cap Fund Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
15 Aug 2025 - Hedge Clippings |15 August 2025
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 15 August 2025 RBA Cuts Rates - But Is It a Victory Lap or Wishful Thinking? This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia made headlines with a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the cash rate down to 3.60% - the third move in the current easing cycle. The decision was unanimous and, according to the Board, driven by a "further moderation in inflation" and "easing labour market conditions." Unanimous means that six members of the board changed their views since the previous meeting held just five weeks earlier, so one has to wonder if the widespread outcry and criticism following that decision had any cognitive effect on the board? Maybe we're being a touch too cynical, but scratch beneath the surface, and the decision should have been far from clear-cut, as outlined in our interview below with Seed's Nick Chaplin, and Renny Ellis from Arculus. Yes, inflation is falling - the trimmed mean now sits at 2.7%, with headline inflation at 2.1%, helped along by temporary government cost-of-living relief measures which will now expire. The RBA's updated forecasts assume inflation will continue its graceful descent, conveniently alongside a "gradual" rate-cutting path. But the real economy isn't exactly booming in the background. While the RBA noted that "private demand appears to have been recovering," it also admitted that household spending is fragile and highly sensitive to both interest rates and confidence. Wage growth is down, productivity remains poor, and unit labour costs are still elevated - hardly a recipe for sustained disinflation. However, maybe hanging on for another six weeks before the next meeting at the end of September would have been - to use a military term - "a bridge too far." And then there's the global picture. The RBA acknowledged "elevated uncertainty," especially around trade policy and international demand, while reassuring us that "more extreme outcomes are likely to be avoided." That might be optimism, or just a polite RBA way of saying "we hope the Donald doesn't blow the world economy up." The labour market, however resilient, is showing cracks - July unemployment (post meeting) came in at 4.2%, down from 4.3%, but is up (and trending up) almost 1% over the past 3 years. The Bank continues to hedge, saying conditions are "a little tight" while also noting underutilisation is low. In the end, this rate cut appears as much about buying insurance against a downturn (not to mention keeping faith with the market's expectations) as it is about celebrating inflation control. The RBA is clearly worried - but doesn't want to say so too loudly. As always, the Board said it will remain "attentive to the data" - and ready to act. Whether that means more cuts or a hasty reversal remains to be seen. Cautious optimism? Or cautious back-pedalling? We'll know more when the next round of CPI, wages, and spending data lands, ready for the next RBA meeting at the end of September. Australia's real issue is productivity, and next week's talk-fest in Canberra is sounding more and more like a PR exercise, with Albo promising not to do anything that wasn't on the election agenda - which we presume is good news for his wedding plans. Labor is assured of being in government for at least two terms, so surely they should have the confidence to be bold? Or could it be caution again? They'll have to wear responsibility and the outcome (as will the rest of us) beyond the next election, and possibly the one after that, so better they don't rock the boat. Video Expert Analysis of the RBA's August 12 Rate Decision Manager Insights | Digital Asset Funds Management News | Insights 5 Things Investors Get Wrong About Trend-Following | East Coast Capital Management 10k Words | Equitable Investors Market Update | Australian Secure Capital Fund July 2025 Performance News Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Seed Funds Management Hybrid Income Fund Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
8 Aug 2025 - Hedge Clippings | 08 August 2025
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 08 August 2025 The RBA meets next Tuesday, and following the June quarter's "trimmed mean"CPI number of 2.7%, Governor Michele Bullock and her board will be under pressure to reduce rates from the current 3.85%. Expectations from economists and the market for a cut are high, although that didn't stop the RBA from sitting on its hands in July, leading to widespread disbelief, disappointment and criticism from economists, mortgage holders, and the media. For followers of Hedge Clippings, there might not have been the same level of surprise following our interview with Nick Chaplin from Seed Funds Management, and Renny Ellis from Arculus Funds Management prior to the July meeting and decision. Both unanimously agreed that the RBA should hold rates then, so we reconvened earlier today to get their current take on next week's decision and the current economic outlook both here and the US. While not 100% in agreement on all points this time around, both Nick and Renny were of the view that not only was the July decision the correct one, but neither were convinced of the need to move next week from the RBA's "slow and steady"and look-through-the-numbers approach. In particular, Renny noted the six-to-nine-month lag between the initial easing in February, and the end of government support or rebates on energy bills. Both were also unconvinced that the slight uptick in unemployment to 4.3% (seasonally adjusted) was sufficient to cause alarm, and certainly don't hold the view of some bank economists, including the CBA, that a further two, or even three, rate cuts to the 3% region are scheduled by early next year. That said, while the CPI and unemployment numbers might say hold, the politics and the media pressure will be intense! You can watch the video here. In the US, the pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates continues following the weaker-than-expected July employment numbers, and downward revisions to those previously announced. A slowdown in the US economy, at the same time as a tariff-induced increase in inflation, will create further uncertainty both in the US and Australia. Meanwhile Albo has scotched any expectations of changes to economic or taxation policy at or as a result of the upcoming 3-day Economic Summit scheduled for 19th of August, giving as his reason that he will only legislate tax changes during this term based on commitments made leading up to the last election. If there's to be no change, what's the benefit of the summit - unless it is to set in place changes post the 2028 election? Changes to the GST are a long-overdue necessity (along with a revamping of the tax system as a whole that it would enable) but are a political minefield for whichever government is left to introduce them. Maybe it is time for some rare bipartisan support? Instead we have a proposal to tax unrealised capital gains in superannuation. While it may initially only affect those with super balances over $3 million, watch out, it's the thin end of the wedge. When governments (of all persuasions) get the taste of a new source of income, they rarely lose it. Remember that Federal income tax was first introduced in Australia in 1915 as a temporary measure to help fund the war effort in the First World War. Video Expert analysis on what the RBA will do next Tuesday, August 12 | FundMonitors News | Insights The enemy within | Canopy Investors Pivot, don't panic: America's next act | Magellan Asset Management News & Views: One final round of rail consolidation? | 4D Infrastructure
Webinar Recording How to get the most from Fundmonitors.com July 2025 Performance News |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
1 Aug 2025 - Hedge Clippings | 01 August 2025
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 01 August 20256 According to economists, market junkies and the media, all or most of whom incorrectly thought there would be a rate cut in July, this week's June quarter inflation number makes a rate cut of 0.25% in August a certainty. Most of them reiterated that they thought the RBA should have acted in July rather than waiting five weeks for more data. That data, in the form of the bank's preferred "trimmed mean"inflationary measure, which came in at an annualised 2.7%, continued a downward trend, and was the lowest number since December 2021. So you'd have to suggest a rate cut the week after next would be a fait accompli. Except that the RBA are, by nature, cautious folk, embodied by their stated strategy of "easing monetary policy in a cautious and gradual manner", and there remain a couple of unknowns out there. At home, there's a risk that inflation picks up in the September and December quarters as the various energy subsidies disappear. Globally, there's the uncertainty around the economic and inflationary effects of Trump's tariffs, and his "big beautiful bill". US Fed chief Jerome Powell was sufficiently uncertain overnight and so kept US rates on hold, where they've been since last December, even though he kept his options open about the possibility of a cut in September, subject to the data. Meanwhile, back to those tariffs. It appears that for the time being, Australia has "escaped"with a tax rate of just 10% on imports into the US, a far cry from Canada's rate of 35%. Of course, knowing Trump this could change, but for now it seems that Albo's strategy of keeping a low profile could be working. Then again, it might not be Albo's strategy that's keeping Australia out of Trump's firing line. Maybe the Donald has other more pressing matters to deal with. We'd hope that's the case. Webinar How to get the most from Fundmonitors.com | Register Now News | Insights Trip Insights: Europe | 4D Infrastructure The Rise of Gamified Fandom: Why Gen Z Is Reshaping the Sports Industry | Insync Fund Managers June 2025 Performance News Insync Global Quality Equity Fund Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Argonaut Natural Resources Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
