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Hedge Clippings | 30 October 2026

The Melbourne Cup and the Reserve Bank share a Tuesday, with another rate rise looking the shorter-priced bet. September inflation of 4.3% has lifted the odds of a fifth increase this year as high as 90%. Elsewhere, central banks are taking different paths.

The Cup Day squeeze: inflation at 4.3% makes the Reserve Bank Tuesday's shortest priced runner.

Headline inflation has swung with oil, whilst underlying inflation has crept higher and stayed there.

Australians looking for a Melbourne Cup tip next Tuesday may find the shortest odds attached to the Reserve Bank. Unfortunately for borrowers, any winnings from backing another rate rise may already be spoken for by the next mortgage repayment. Wednesday's inflation figures left the RBA with little comfort. Annual headline inflation rose to 4.3% in September from 4.0% in August, with prices up 0.8% in the month. Housing, up 5.2% over the year, was the largest contributor. The quarterly trimmed mean rose 1.0%, above the 0.8% in the Bank's August forecasts, taking the annual rate to 3.7%. Inflation in every capital city is above the 2% to 3% target band, ranging from 4.0% in Melbourne to 5.3% in Hobart. Fuel remains a large part of the problem, rising 9.4% in September and 23.6% over the year. But the pressure is broader: services inflation is 4.1% and non-tradables inflation is 4.5%. An expensive tank of petrol is painful enough; persistent increases across the household budget are harder for both borrowers and the RBA to absorb.

Markets lifted the probability of a November rise from around 60% before the release to between 85% and 90% afterwards. All four major banks now expect a 25 basis point increase to 4.85%, the fifth rise this year and the highest cash rate since late 2008. Governor Michele Bullock told Senate Estimates that inflation remained far too high and supply shocks could not be ignored entirely. She also pointed to strong investment in data centres and renewable energy, while weak productivity limits how quickly the economy can grow without adding to inflation.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers defended the government's fiscal position, pointing to the Middle East conflict and stronger private investment. Four of every five dollars of demand are private, he noted. Treasury Secretary Jenny Wilkinson said real government spending grew 1.3% over the latest year, against a median of 2.9% this century. Those are relevant distinctions, but inflation responds to total demand relative to supply. Public spending still matters at the margin, especially where it adds demand before expanding productive capacity. Tuesday's race will be over in a few minutes. The interest rate decision will stay with household budgets rather longer. For Mr Albanese and Dr Chalmers, each month of stubborn inflation makes the promise of relief harder to sell.

With another rise largely priced in, the new Statement on Monetary Policy deserves close attention. August's forecasts put December headline inflation at 3.6%, and the trimmed mean at 3.3%. If the revisions leave underlying inflation above 3% well into 2027, investors will need to consider how income funds, property holdings and fixed-rate bonds would fare with the cash rate near 5% for longer.

Spring stalls: sales fall 20.9%, stock builds and borrowing power shrinks by about $90,000.

The spring market is not being swamped by sellers, it is simply not clearing.

September home sales fell 20.9% from a year earlier to 39,747, while median selling time rose from 26 to 41 days. New listings fell 7.9%, yet advertised stock increased 19.1%. Homes are taking longer to clear.

National values are 5.2% below their March peak, and Sydney is 8.6% below its February high. Four rate rises have also reduced a median income household's borrowing capacity by about $90,000, or 9%. Lower prices do not necessarily make a purchase easier to finance.

Slower sales deserve particular attention in property lending. Development loans often rely on completed homes being sold to repay principal. When selling times lengthen, interest continues to accrue, and repayment may arrive later than the lender expected, even if the eventual sale price holds up.

Central banks take different paths as Australian rate expectations support the dollar.

Australia already has the highest policy rate of the six, and is the most likely to lift it next.

The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% by ten votes to two. US growth of an annualised 3.4%, PCE inflation of 3.6% and core PCE of 3.1% strengthened expectations of further tightening. Markets put the chance of a December rise at 83% to 86%. Canada raised rates 25 basis points to 2.50%, while the ECB held at 2.50%. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold at 1.25%. New Zealand surprised markets by holding at 2.75%, pushing the Australian dollar above NZ$1.26.

Australia's relatively high rates support the currency. A stronger dollar reduces the local value of unhedged overseas holdings, making currency exposure an important consideration for global equity and credit investors.

December remains a focus for several major central banks, but Tuesday's RBA guidance could move Australian markets sooner. If the Governor leaves further rises firmly on the table, Australian short-dated yields could move higher relative to US yields. That difference matters for bond returns and the currency, although rate expectations are only one influence on exchange rates.

Oil stays high as markets weigh developments in China, Europe and the Americas.

The EIA expects oil to fall by about a third by late 2027, but Australian inflation forecasts cannot bank on it.

Brent settled at US$115.32 on Wednesday, almost double its level at the start of the year. JPMorgan attributes part of the price to a geopolitical premium over a fundamental value nearer US$94. OPEC+ is expected to leave December output targets unchanged on Sunday. China's Fifth Plenum offered little on stimulus. Saturday's manufacturing PMI should give Australian resources investors a clearer indication of demand. Germany's Ifo index rose for a sixth month to 90.2, although assessments of current conditions weakened.

Brazil's Ibovespa fell 13.88% after Lula won a fourth term, illustrating the risk of positioning around an expected political outcome.

Oil prices and AI investment are adding to inflation pressure even as household demand slows. Interest rates cannot directly resolve either, but central banks still have to consider their effects on broader spending, wages and inflation expectations.

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Tech bubble fears? Follow the cash

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October 2026

(3-minute read)

Funds operated by this manager:

abrdn Sustainable Asian Opportunities Fund , abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Fund , abrdn Sustainable International Equities Fund , abrdn Global Corporate Bond Fund (Class A)

Hedge Clippings | 23 October 2026

Slowing down, but still running hot

Australia's economy is slowing. Unfortunately, inflation appears reluctant to follow. That leaves the Reserve Bank contemplating another interest rate increase, the Treasurer preparing weaker growth forecasts, and households wondering how much more slowing they are supposed to accommodate.

Speaking at today's Citi A50 Australian Economic Forum, Jim Chalmers acknowledged that higher inflation and interest rates would probably mean softer growth and slightly higher unemployment. There was an encouraging qualification: Treasury now expects business investment growth this financial year could exceed 5%, compared with May's forecast of 2.5%. The economy is losing momentum unevenly, with investment providing support while households feel the squeeze.

Two days earlier, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser delivered the less comforting side of that picture. The inflation outlook had become "materially worse" than anticipated in August. Higher oil prices, strong AI-related demand and domestic capacity constraints were all contributing. More concerning was evidence that some businesses increasingly regarded inflation of 3-3½% as normal. Once that expectation influences pricing decisions, bringing inflation down becomes harder.

The Treasurer and the RBA can therefore both be right about slowing growth. The disagreement is over how much slowing is necessary, and which policies should deliver it.

Chalmers emphasised today that public demand growth had halved last financial year while private demand growth had tripled. That is relevant. It does not, however, settle whether government spending is adding to inflationary pressure.

Slower growth in spending still leaves spending growing. And its effect depends on the economy's ability to supply the workers, materials and services being purchased. When capacity is constrained, public spending competes for resources alongside private spending. The RBA responds to the total.

Nor does public demand capture the entire fiscal picture. Tax cuts and transfers affect household purchasing power without all appearing as government purchases in the national accounts. The RBA itself notes that budget balances provide a broader indication of fiscal policy's effect because they incorporate taxes and transfers as well as spending.

May's Budget projected Commonwealth cash payments of 26.8% of GDP and an underlying cash deficit of $31.5 billion, or 1% of GDP, for 2026 - 27. Those are forecasts awaiting December's update. Neither figure tells us precisely how much inflation fiscal policy causes, and a deficit alone does not establish that policy is becoming more expansionary. But the scale of spending deserves scrutiny alongside the Treasurer's emphasis on its slowing growth.

The fair criticism is that fiscal restraint could share more of the work currently being done by interest rates. The government cannot control world oil prices. It can control spending priorities, the targeting of assistance, and whether new commitments are offset elsewhere. Productivity-enhancing investment can expand supply over time, although construction spending adds demand before those benefits arrive.

That creates an uncomfortable political choice. Broad relief is popular, but it supports spending when the RBA is trying to restrain it. Better-targeted assistance and credible savings offer a more disciplined response. Claims that Canberra caused all inflation are implausible; the Treasurer's suggestions that its choices have little bearing on the task are equally unconvincing.

The housing market shows how uncomfortable this combination has become. Domain's September Quarter House Price Report, released on Thursday, recorded falling median house prices in every capital city - the first simultaneous decline in 15 years. Combined capital city house prices fell 4.7% over the quarter. Domain identified higher interest rates, persistent living costs and changes to housing investment taxes as contributing pressures, with investors pulling back.

Albanese and Chalmers may be tempted to present cheaper houses as evidence that their affordability policies are working. Before claiming victory, they should consider whether prospective buyers can actually afford the repayments.

Lower prices reduce the deposit and loan required, which certainly helps. But higher mortgage rates reduce borrowing capacity, while persistent inflation eats into the income available to service the loan. For buyers dependent on substantial borrowing, those pressures can swallow the benefit of a cheaper purchase price. Affordability involves more than the number on the sales contract.

Meanwhile, existing homeowners face the other side of the equation: falling property values erode their equity, even as repayments remain elevated. Recent buyers with small deposits are particularly exposed. The downturn was already underway before May's Budget, so Canberra cannot claim - or be assigned - all the responsibility. Its tax changes have nevertheless added another pressure to an already weakening market.

A smaller deposit hurdle for tomorrow's buyer, a larger repayment burden, and less equity for today's owner. "Thank you, Albanese" may not be quite the electoral endorsement the government had in mind.

For fund investors, that uncertainty now has a particularly tangible counterpart.

Last week's Hedge Clippings covered the reliability of private asset valuations following the Firmus "fiasco" (which we expect still has a long way to run). This week MA Financial announced that its $106 million MA Secured Real Estate Income Fund would be wound up. Its principal underlying investment, the MA Secured Loan Series, will suspend redemptions from 31 October until at least 31 March 2027. The retail fund's outstanding redemption requests lose their previous priority, with investors instead participating proportionately in the wind-up. MA also cited an insufficient sustainable scale. The notice does not establish investors' ultimate loss, but it establishes that access to their money has changed substantially.

The issues facing private credit for real estate and property development are real, but need to be viewed as a separate sector from commercial and corporate private credit lending. While both are subject to valuation concerns and potential liquidity mismatches, the other issues each face are significantly different. Going forward, FundMonitors.com will be allocating the latter to a new Peer Group consisting solely of Corporate Private Credit to give investors and advisors a clear differentiation between the two.

Next Wednesday's inflation release will sharpen the debate before the RBA meets in the first week of November for their "Cup Day" meeting. Persistent inflation, followed by a further rate rise will only add to the government's flagging electoral support.

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