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Only Argentina's sharemarket outpaced the US in CY2024, with a mediocre performance from Australia; 10-year bond yields expanded despite the Federal Reserve's rate cuts; the AUD battled while the USD went from strength-to-strength; while natural gas was the commodity of choice. We can't help but highlight the concentration in the US market once again; while its pricing is dependent on a resurgence in earnings outside the tech sector. The thing about high multiples for the S&P 500 is that they tend to be followed by low 10-year returns. Maybe that is why money flowed out of active equities funds in CY2024. We take a look at the implications of volatility on small cap returns and the severity of drawdowns that have been seen across asset classes through the decades. Then we see just how big a part of the global investment pie equities have become. Finally, we look at the increased role government borrowing has played in the US and government spending has played in Australia.

Global equity ETF total returns for 2024 (in USD)

Source: Koyfin, Equitable Investors

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Government bond yield movements in CY2024

Source: Koyfin, Equitable Investors

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Currency performance in CY2024

Source: Koyfin, Equitable Investors

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Commodities performance in CY2024

Source: Koyfin, Equitable Investors

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Share of total S&P 500 market cap held by 5 largest stocks

Source: Bianco Research

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Year-on-year S&P 500 earnings growth - historical and projected

Source: Callie Cox Media, Bloomberg

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S&P 500 forward P/E and subsequent 10-year returns

Source: @thejoshviljoen

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Active equities fund outflows in 2024

Source: Financial Times

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Percentage of trading days with moves of 1% or more in the Russell 2000 over the last 25 years

Source: Royce & Associates

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Drawdowns - the latest prices in relation to the previous all-time high

Source: Topdown Charts

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Composition of the global market portfolio

Source: State Street Global Advisors

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Evolution of the composition of the global market portfolio

 

Source: State Street Global Advisors

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US debt growth breakdown

 

 

Source: @TheKingCourt

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Data demand growth driving a surge in data centre power use

 

Source: @AvidCommentator

January 2025 Edition

In the world of finance, the term "bridging loan" often comes up in conversations about short-term funding solutions. Bridging finance may seem complex, but understanding its key features can help clarify its benefits and risks. In this article, we'll explore what a bridging loan is, how it works, its advantages and disadvantages, and when it might be the right choice for you.

What is a Bridging Loan?

A bridging loan is a type of short-term financing that is designed to "bridge" the gap between a financial need and a long-term financing solution. These loans are typically used when an individual or business needs to access funds quickly, often for a specific purpose, such as purchasing a new property before selling an existing one. Bridging loans are usually secured against an asset, often real estate, and can be arranged relatively quickly compared to traditional loans.

Types of Bridging Loans

There are two main types of bridging loans:

1. Open Bridging Loans: These loans do not have a fixed repayment date, meaning they can be paid back at any time. They are usually used in situations where the borrower has not yet sold their existing property or is unsure when they will be able to repay the loan.

2. Closed Bridging Loans: These loans have a specific repayment date, typically aligned with the sale of a property. They are ideal for borrowers who have already exchanged contracts on a property and have a clear timeline for repayment.

How Does Bridging Finance Work?

Bridging finance operates on a straightforward premise: it provides quick access to funds that can be used for various purposes. The process generally involves the following steps:

1. Application: The borrower submits an application for a bridging loan, providing necessary documentation such as proof of income, details of the property being used as security, and information about the intended use of the funds.

2. Valuation: The lender will conduct a valuation of the property to ensure it is worth the amount being borrowed. This step is crucial, as the property serves as collateral for the loan.

3. Approval and Funding: If the application is approved, the lender will issue the funds, usually within a matter of days. This quick turnaround is one of the main advantages of bridging finance.

4. Repayment: The borrower will repay the loan either upon the completion of the intended project (e.g., selling a property) or on the agreed-upon repayment date for closed loans.

Advantages of Bridging Loans

Bridging loans come with several benefits that make them an attractive option for many borrowers:

1. Speed: One of the most significant advantages of bridging loans is their speed. Traditional loans can take weeks or even months to process, while bridging finance can be arranged in a matter of days.

2. Flexibility: Bridging loans offer flexibility in terms of repayment options. They can be tailored to fit the borrower's specific needs, whether it's a short-term loan for a few weeks or a few months.

3. Access to Funds: Bridging finance can provide access to funds that might not be available through traditional lending routes, especially for borrowers with less-than-perfect credit histories.

4. No Early Repayment Penalties: Many bridging loan providers do not impose penalties for early repayment (depending on the terms), which can be a crucial factor for borrowers looking to reduce their overall interest costs.

Disadvantages of Bridging Loans

While bridging loans offer many benefits, they also come with some drawbacks that should not be overlooked:

1. Higher Interest Rates: Bridging loans typically have higher interest rates compared to traditional mortgages. This is due to their short-term nature and perceived risk associated with bridging loans. Borrowers should compare options to find a product that fits their circumstances.

2. Fees: Borrowers may encounter various fees associated with bridging loans, including arrangement fees, valuation fees, and legal fees, which can add to the overall cost.

3. Risk of Repossession: Since bridging loans are secured against an asset, failure to repay can result in the lender repossessing the property used as collateral.

4. Short-Term Solution: Bridging loans are not meant to be a long-term financing solution. Borrowers need to have a clear plan for repayment, as these loans usually need to be settled within a few months.

When to Consider a Bridging Loan

Bridging loans may be a suitable financial tool in specific situations, depending on your circumstances and the terms provided by the lender. Here are a few scenarios where bridging finance might make sense:

1. Property Transactions: If you are in the process of buying a new home but have not yet sold your current property, a bridging loan can provide the funds needed to make the purchase without the stress of timing the two transactions perfectly.

2. Investment Opportunities: Investors might use bridging loans to seize opportunities that require quick financing, such as auction purchases or real estate investments that need renovation before resale.

3. Business Funding: Businesses may need immediate capital for various reasons, such as purchasing new equipment or covering operational costs during a slow period. Bridging finance can provide that necessary cash flow.

Bridging loans may offer a short-term financial solution for those who meet the lender's criteria and have a clear repayment strategy. While they come with higher interest rates and various fees, their speed and flexibility make them an attractive option for many borrowers. Whether you're looking to purchase a new home, invest in real estate, or fund a business need, understanding bridging finance can help you make informed decisions about your financial future.

As with any financial product, it's essential to weigh the pros and cons carefully and consult with a financial advisor if needed. Bridging loans can be an excellent tool in your financial arsenal -- just ensure you know how to use them wisely.

Author: Mikaela Gladden